2021 NCAA Tournament

[Hopkins92]

Also, dates and times are up. I might be way late on this, but just in case: https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/soccer-men/d3/2021

Of note, the Calvin-Rochester pod starts play on Friday. A does W&L's pod.

[College Soccer Observer]

I really hate to say it, but I think F&M has the best shot of surprising higher seeds because of the style they play. It's a lot more disruptive if you haven't seen it before.  They area also one of those teams that really thrives on emotion... They practically try to conjure up this emotion with their bench on the road. At home, it can be a palpable aspect of the game.

I don't think any team that encounters Amherst on a regular basis is going to be thrown off by this.  Been there, done that.

[d4_Pace]

Yeah my impression of F&M over the years has been a poor man's Amherst. I think the key to NESCAC teams success in the tournament is being used to all different styles and not being overwhelmed by anything. Also without doing the research I would guess Midd is significantly bigger than F&M who might be a little surprised when they are no longer winning balls in the air.

[College Soccer Observer]

Let's hope Midd has a chance to get there and find out.  Midd has a 6-3 GK, and back 4 is all 6-1 or higher (McFarlane 6'3", O'Brien 6'1", Pape 6'4", Nelson 6'1" (Lund is the other option, and he is also 6'1"

[PaulNewman]

Last but not least...the W&L/Messiah quad...

First, I've nearly torn my hair out trying to discern what CMSV means.  After more than 24 hours I broke down and went on the Rowan website to see who that is.  And much to my chagrin, after days of detailed coverage via @deiscanton, I learned that CMSV = Mt St Vincent.

With that out of the way, let's start up top.  Does W&L get Denison or Covenant in the 2nd round.  I had to look up where Covenant is too, and that was embarrassing because I had a girlfriend once from gorgeous Lookout Mtn, Tennessee.  The picture of the Scots' pitch reveals a beautiful field with a beautiful view (like a lookout mountain vista).  Everyone is gonna think Denison moves on to face W&L, but Covenant is capable of beating the Big Red, and one has to wonder even with Bianco how much juice Denison has left after probably the best 4-5 day stretch in Denison soccer history.  My guess is that the excitement of making the tournament and travel to lovely and historic Lexington, VA will see Denison through to the 2nd round.  Then, though, I think exhaustion is going to set in against a more talented W&L side that will be well-alerted to Denison's very recent exploits.  The Big Red might hang for a while, but the road ends here and the scoreline might get ugly.  Now, if Denison does prevail over W&L at W&L I hope that will end all debate about national coach of the year.  This is a can't lose situation for Denison even if they falter against Covenant.  They are going to be a program to reckon with moving forward.

I expect Rowan to cruise at home versus Mt St Vincent but given the chatter about cards the Professors don't want any players disqualified for a potential match with Christopher Newport.  My impression of the Captains is that they are a little unpredictable but I assume they'll have too much for ECSU.  In the next round, a Rowan-CNU clash seems like a toss-up.  Rowan will have the home field edge but maybe no one has had the combination of extensive travel and a very difficult schedule as CNU.

Moving to the bottom part of the quad, one would think Emory and Lynchburg are clear faves to advance to face each other, with Emory then having a decided edge.  But not so fast.  I don't know how many players Centre still has from the 2019 Final 4 team but after a slow start the Colonels recovered and knocked out an Oglethorpe team I expected to win the SAA.  Emory and Centre are programs also very familiar with one another.  I think Emory will emerge but here's another potential 1st round upset.  And I will not be shocked at all if Hanover beats Lynchburg.  Another pick 'em type game IMO.

On to the Messiah pod.  As I noted earlier today, I think Catholic is a legit 1st round upset pick over Kenyon, but the Lords are coming in wounded, hungry, and feeling very disrespected.  If it happens it happens and then I can just enjoy the rest of the tournament as a neutral, but I have to think Kenyon will advance.  I believe Kenyon's overall talent will come through and that on the huge Messiah pitch the Lords will generate enough chances to score at least a couple of goals.  Presuming the Messiah-Kenyon match-up happens IMO that will be more of a pick 'em game than most would think.  The objective at Kenyon now every year is a national championship.  Of course the same is true for Messiah.  I would expect the game to rival or exceed the 2013 affair in intensity and drama.  Should also be a pretty open game with both sides getting plenty of chances, and even if one team goes up a goal or two, the other team still will have chances with opportunities to level.  Kenyon MUST avoid getting repeatedly stretched and leaving the Falcons acres of space for counters.  Messiah can slice and dice you without any help.  Hopefully the Lords grab a lead or at least stay level so that they can maintain balance defensively on a big field.

Where would the sectional be if form holds?  W&L?  Messiah?  I would assume not Atlanta given geography.  If Messiah did lose then almost certainly W&L.  Anyway, that could make a difference between W&L reaching the Final 4 or not. 

[Ejay]

As I noted earlier today, I think Catholic is a legit 1st round upset pick over Kenyon

No way Catholic should be a legit upset pick over Kenyon. I really believe this is a CYA move because you don't want to have your heart broken again, so you're giving yourself an out. :-)

[PaulNewman]

As I noted earlier today, I think Catholic is a legit 1st round upset pick over Kenyon

No way Catholic should be a legit upset pick over Kenyon. I really believe this is a CYA move because you don't want to have your heart broken again, so you're giving yourself an out. :-)

LOL.  My heart broke a long time ago...many times over.  Not sure how far back you read but that comment started after another poster said that Catholic was going to win.  I was just endorsing part of his thesis, and that, of course, it could happen.  But anyways, since when was CYA discouraged?  And, btw, you left out the rest of sentence where I said I believed Kenyon would win.

I'll come clean.  I knew well before the season started, deep within my aortic valve, that Kenyon was the best team in the country, and all those weeks when they weren't even ranked I knew that was absurd.  I fully expect Kenyon to beat Messiah and go on to win the national title.

[LetteroftheLaw]

Last but not least...the W&L/Messiah quad...

First, I've nearly torn my hair out trying to discern what CMSV means.  After more than 24 hours I broke down and went on the Rowan website to see who that is.  And much to my chagrin, after days of detailed coverage via @deiscanton, I learned that CMSV = Mt St Vincent.

With that out of the way, let's start up top.  Does W&L get Denison or Covenant in the 2nd round.  I had to look up where Covenant is too, and that was embarrassing because I had a girlfriend once from gorgeous Lookout Mtn, Tennessee.  The picture of the Scots' pitch reveals a beautiful field with a beautiful view (like a lookout mountain vista).  Everyone is gonna think Denison moves on to face W&L, but Covenant is capable of beating the Big Red, and one has to wonder even with Bianco how much juice Denison has left after probably the best 4-5 day stretch in Denison soccer history.  My guess is that the excitement of making the tournament and travel to lovely and historic Lexington, VA will see Denison through to the 2nd round.  Then, though, I think exhaustion is going to set in against a more talented W&L side that will be well-alerted to Denison's very recent exploits.  The Big Red might hang for a while, but the road ends here and the scoreline might get ugly.  Now, if Denison does prevail over W&L at W&L I hope that will end all debate about national coach of the year.  This is a can't lose situation for Denison even if they falter against Covenant.  They are going to be a program to reckon with moving forward.

I expect Rowan to cruise at home versus Mt St Vincent but given the chatter about cards the Professors don't want any players disqualified for a potential match with Christopher Newport.  My impression of the Captains is that they are a little unpredictable but I assume they'll have too much for ECSU.  In the next round, a Rowan-CNU clash seems like a toss-up.  Rowan will have the home field edge but maybe no one has had the combination of extensive travel and a very difficult schedule as CNU.

Moving to the bottom part of the quad, one would think Emory and Lynchburg are clear faves to advance to face each other, with Emory then having a decided edge.  But not so fast.  I don't know how many players Centre still has from the 2019 Final 4 team but after a slow start the Colonels recovered and knocked out an Oglethorpe team I expected to win the SAA.  Emory and Centre are programs also very familiar with one another.  I think Emory will emerge but here's another potential 1st round upset.  And I will not be shocked at all if Hanover beats Lynchburg.  Another pick 'em type game IMO.

On to the Messiah pod.  As I noted earlier today, I think Catholic is a legit 1st round upset pick over Kenyon, but the Lords are coming in wounded, hungry, and feeling very disrespected.  If it happens it happens and then I can just enjoy the rest of the tournament as a neutral, but I have to think Kenyon will advance.  I believe Kenyon's overall talent will come through and that on the huge Messiah pitch the Lords will generate enough chances to score at least a couple of goals.  Presuming the Messiah-Kenyon match-up happens IMO that will be more of a pick 'em game than most would think.  The objective at Kenyon now every year is a national championship.  Of course the same is true for Messiah.  I would expect the game to rival or exceed the 2013 affair in intensity and drama.  Should also be a pretty open game with both sides getting plenty of chances, and even if one team goes up a goal or two, the other team still will have chances with opportunities to level.  Kenyon MUST avoid getting repeatedly stretched and leaving the Falcons acres of space for counters.  Messiah can slice and dice you without any help.  Hopefully the Lords grab a lead or at least stay level so that they can maintain balance defensively on a big field.

Where would the sectional be if form holds?  W&L?  Messiah?  I would assume not Atlanta given geography.  If Messiah did lose then almost certainly W&L.  Anyway, that could make a difference between W&L reaching the Final 4 or not.

Awesome breakdowns of each quadrant. I'm in agreement with basically everything you said.

I think you highlighted a lot of potential upsets that I think a lot of people probably are overlooking - myself included:
Pacific Lutheran over Trinity
Covenant over Denison
Centre over Emory
Hanover over Lynchburg
PSU-H over JHU
Oneonta over Middlebury
Cabrini over Babson (I really don't see this happening)
Trine over Otterbein (despite 13-0 drubbing they suffered to the Fighting Irish - still can't believe thats posted on their website)

Will be interesting to see who ends up advancing to the second round from these games even though I don't think any of them will impact the elite 8 besides Middlebury-Oneonta.

[PaulNewman]

Last but not least...the W&L/Messiah quad...

First, I've nearly torn my hair out trying to discern what CMSV means.  After more than 24 hours I broke down and went on the Rowan website to see who that is.  And much to my chagrin, after days of detailed coverage via @deiscanton, I learned that CMSV = Mt St Vincent.

With that out of the way, let's start up top.  Does W&L get Denison or Covenant in the 2nd round.  I had to look up where Covenant is too, and that was embarrassing because I had a girlfriend once from gorgeous Lookout Mtn, Tennessee.  The picture of the Scots' pitch reveals a beautiful field with a beautiful view (like a lookout mountain vista).  Everyone is gonna think Denison moves on to face W&L, but Covenant is capable of beating the Big Red, and one has to wonder even with Bianco how much juice Denison has left after probably the best 4-5 day stretch in Denison soccer history.  My guess is that the excitement of making the tournament and travel to lovely and historic Lexington, VA will see Denison through to the 2nd round.  Then, though, I think exhaustion is going to set in against a more talented W&L side that will be well-alerted to Denison's very recent exploits.  The Big Red might hang for a while, but the road ends here and the scoreline might get ugly.  Now, if Denison does prevail over W&L at W&L I hope that will end all debate about national coach of the year.  This is a can't lose situation for Denison even if they falter against Covenant.  They are going to be a program to reckon with moving forward.

I expect Rowan to cruise at home versus Mt St Vincent but given the chatter about cards the Professors don't want any players disqualified for a potential match with Christopher Newport.  My impression of the Captains is that they are a little unpredictable but I assume they'll have too much for ECSU.  In the next round, a Rowan-CNU clash seems like a toss-up.  Rowan will have the home field edge but maybe no one has had the combination of extensive travel and a very difficult schedule as CNU.

Moving to the bottom part of the quad, one would think Emory and Lynchburg are clear faves to advance to face each other, with Emory then having a decided edge.  But not so fast.  I don't know how many players Centre still has from the 2019 Final 4 team but after a slow start the Colonels recovered and knocked out an Oglethorpe team I expected to win the SAA.  Emory and Centre are programs also very familiar with one another.  I think Emory will emerge but here's another potential 1st round upset.  And I will not be shocked at all if Hanover beats Lynchburg.  Another pick 'em type game IMO.

On to the Messiah pod.  As I noted earlier today, I think Catholic is a legit 1st round upset pick over Kenyon, but the Lords are coming in wounded, hungry, and feeling very disrespected.  If it happens it happens and then I can just enjoy the rest of the tournament as a neutral, but I have to think Kenyon will advance.  I believe Kenyon's overall talent will come through and that on the huge Messiah pitch the Lords will generate enough chances to score at least a couple of goals.  Presuming the Messiah-Kenyon match-up happens IMO that will be more of a pick 'em game than most would think.  The objective at Kenyon now every year is a national championship.  Of course the same is true for Messiah.  I would expect the game to rival or exceed the 2013 affair in intensity and drama.  Should also be a pretty open game with both sides getting plenty of chances, and even if one team goes up a goal or two, the other team still will have chances with opportunities to level.  Kenyon MUST avoid getting repeatedly stretched and leaving the Falcons acres of space for counters.  Messiah can slice and dice you without any help.  Hopefully the Lords grab a lead or at least stay level so that they can maintain balance defensively on a big field.

Where would the sectional be if form holds?  W&L?  Messiah?  I would assume not Atlanta given geography.  If Messiah did lose then almost certainly W&L.  Anyway, that could make a difference between W&L reaching the Final 4 or not.

Awesome breakdowns of each quadrant. I'm in agreement with basically everything you said.

I think you highlighted a lot of potential upsets that I think a lot of people probably are overlooking - myself included:
Pacific Lutheran over Trinity
Covenant over Denison
Centre over Emory
Hanover over Lynchburg
PSU-H over JHU
Oneonta over Middlebury
Cabrini over Babson (I really don't see this happening)
Trine over Otterbein (despite 13-0 drubbing they suffered to the Fighting Irish - still can't believe thats posted on their website)

Will be interesting to see who ends up advancing to the second round from these games even though I don't think any of them will impact the elite 8 besides Middlebury-Oneonta.

Thanks...I don't think Oneonta over Midd would be an upset.  Both big-time programs and Oneonta actually over most of the last decade has fared far better.  Just happens to be a Midd poster on here and a handful of NESCAC posters, and no Oneonta posters as far as I can tell.  And just to be clear for other readers, I didn't suggest that all those games were gonna be upsets...just that many of them may be tougher games than one might think on the surface.

[paclassic89]

Baruch has to be one of the biggest tourney underdogs in recent memory.  Ranked #363 on Massey Ratings.  SoS of .432.  Lost to NYU this season 10-0 

[Hopkins92]

I know I sound like Eeyore at this point, but Hopkins losing to PSU-H would barely be a blip of an upset. Just in terms of ranking, PSU-H is 20 and Hopkins 25. On form coming into the tournament, they are very different. PSU-H hasn't lost a game for months and ripped off pretty convincing wins in the conf. tournament. Hopkins has lost 4 of 6 and crapped out (on their home field) in the first round of the CC (as most of you know.)

Sorry to be nitpicky, and I know I'm not objective here, but I'd be pretty surprised if Hopkins pulls that one-off. Now, I do think they are trouble if they sort things out and get out of that game.

[Ommadawn]

Swat of course might not get by Stevens, but if so would be two Shin brothers going against each other.

I happened to be on the Union College roster page and noticed a last name that sounded familiar amidst the Kenyon chatter. In the alternate reality where Kenyon faces Union in the tournament, it would be the Muther of all bruther battles 

[Ron Boerger]

Interesting.   United Soccer Coaches have called for the NCAA to provide a day of rest between the semis and finals for both D3 men and women (like the other divisions have) and have even offered to foot the bill this season. 

https://unitedsoccercoaches.org/united-soccer-coaches-proposes-changes-to-ncaa-diii-championship/

[PaulNewman]

Interesting.   United Soccer Coaches have called for the NCAA to provide a day of rest between the semis and finals for both D3 men and women (like the other divisions have) and have even offered to foot the bill this season. 

https://unitedsoccercoaches.org/united-soccer-coaches-proposes-changes-to-ncaa-diii-championship/

Makes total sense and interesting to see very strong statements from Serpone and Martin.  That said, if playing back to back days is unhealthy for the Final 4 then how is it not unhealthy for the pod and sectional weekends???

[Mr.Right]

Interesting.   United Soccer Coaches have called for the NCAA to provide a day of rest between the semis and finals for both D3 men and women (like the other divisions have) and have even offered to foot the bill this season. 

https://unitedsoccercoaches.org/united-soccer-coaches-proposes-changes-to-ncaa-diii-championship/

Makes total sense and interesting to see very strong statements from Serpone and Martin.  That said, if playing back to back days is unhealthy for the Final 4 then how is it not unhealthy for the pod and sectional weekends???

Exactly. Too little to late. Why are they asking for this NOW??? Seems maybe they wanted this letter out maybe to go along with the news that Ron mentioned about the overall % of money to NCAA D3 going down.