2021 NCAA Tournament

[Gregory Sager]

Yeah, I've heard a few Wheaton fans gripe that the reason for their school's relative decline on the soccer pitch has been that most of the good evangelical-academy players are going to Messiah nowadays. I think that that excuse is weak soup, because: a) the pool is big enough to support more than one good D3 program, as Wheaton itself demonstrated when it was a national contender while Messiah was running off all of those national titles; and b) Wheaton recruits nationally, whereas Messiah confines its recruiting footprint to Pennsylvania and the rest of the northeast, aside from some evangelical schools in northeast Ohio and in Virginia and North Carolina.

(I don't know how common that gripe is among Wheaton fans; it may be a minority opinion. I do know that others have said as an explanation for Wheaton's slide that former coach Jake DeClute simply didn't recruit well, period.)

Wheaton has a true Rand-McNally roster in men's soccer, as it does in every sport.

Another school that is working the evangelical-academy circuit to great success in recruiting is Covenant, which qualified for this year's D3 tourney. Heck, the Scots even have a sprinkling of homeschooled kids on their roster; one of them, Mercer Stout, is their leading scorer (9-9-27). The Scots, however, are basically oriented to the southeast in terms of their recruiting base.

[jknezek]

Covenant might be one of the most scenic colleges in the country. The buildings are kind of standard, but the view from the top of Lookout Mtn is beautiful. If a Christian school was in my wheelhouse, and as a kid raised Northeast Jewish it clearly wasn't,  I'd be looking hard at Covenant as an option just for the environment! The view from the athletic fields is stunning.

[blue_jays]

Yeah, I've heard a few Wheaton fans gripe that the reason for their school's relative decline on the soccer pitch has been that most of the good evangelical-academy players are going to Messiah nowadays. I think that that excuse is weak soup, because: a) the pool is big enough to support more than one good D3 program, as Wheaton itself demonstrated when it was a national contender while Messiah was running off all of those national titles; and b) Wheaton recruits nationally, whereas Messiah confines its recruiting footprint to Pennsylvania and the rest of the northeast, aside from some evangelical schools in northeast Ohio and in Virginia and North Carolina.

(I don't know how common that gripe is among Wheaton fans; it may be a minority opinion. I do know that others have said as an explanation for Wheaton's slide that former coach Jake DeClute simply didn't recruit well, period.)

There-in lies your main factor there. DeClute just wasn't a good fit. Say what you will about Mike Giuliano's in-game strategy, but he was a helluva recruiter while running the ship at Wheaton. The year they snapped their NCAA qualifying streak, he was pretty crushed. But they bounced back and eventually made the national title game with a boatload of All-Americans. Borge controlling the midfield, Hollingsworth speeding past everyone on the attack, the three Golz brothers living up to their names, Noah Anthony with one of the best free kick legs in the nation. The Thunder had some dudes on those squads.

[BracketMaster]

Quick reminder to anyone who is interested in participating in the bracket pool - I have set the deadline for 12pm EST tomorrow so make sure to submit your picks by then. Participation has been impressive so far, already 48 entries!

All of the picks will be visible after the deadline and I'll share some notable takeaways from the submitted brackets on here before the tournament kicks off.

The link to the bracket pool is below. As I said before, your name and email will not be visible, just your username and entry name.

https://www.runyourpool.com/join/pool_info.cfm?id=179402&p=ytcoyu

[Gregory Sager]

Yeah, I've heard a few Wheaton fans gripe that the reason for their school's relative decline on the soccer pitch has been that most of the good evangelical-academy players are going to Messiah nowadays. I think that that excuse is weak soup, because: a) the pool is big enough to support more than one good D3 program, as Wheaton itself demonstrated when it was a national contender while Messiah was running off all of those national titles; and b) Wheaton recruits nationally, whereas Messiah confines its recruiting footprint to Pennsylvania and the rest of the northeast, aside from some evangelical schools in northeast Ohio and in Virginia and North Carolina.

(I don't know how common that gripe is among Wheaton fans; it may be a minority opinion. I do know that others have said as an explanation for Wheaton's slide that former coach Jake DeClute simply didn't recruit well, period.)

There-in lies your main factor there. DeClute just wasn't a good fit. Say what you will about Mike Giuliano's in-game strategy, but he was a helluva recruiter while running the ship at Wheaton. The year they snapped their NCAA qualifying streak, he was pretty crushed. But they bounced back and eventually made the national title game with a boatload of All-Americans. Borge controlling the midfield, Hollingsworth speeding past everyone on the attack, the three Golz brothers living up to their names, Noah Anthony with one of the best free kick legs in the nation. The Thunder had some dudes on those squads.

Well, he's apparently learned a thing or two from his arch-nemesis John Born of NPU. Giuliano currently has six Swedes on his roster at Georgia Gwinnett, where he is the women's soccer coach and has had some pretty good success on the NAIA level thus far since leaving Wheaton.

[blue_jays]

Yeah, I've heard a few Wheaton fans gripe that the reason for their school's relative decline on the soccer pitch has been that most of the good evangelical-academy players are going to Messiah nowadays. I think that that excuse is weak soup, because: a) the pool is big enough to support more than one good D3 program, as Wheaton itself demonstrated when it was a national contender while Messiah was running off all of those national titles; and b) Wheaton recruits nationally, whereas Messiah confines its recruiting footprint to Pennsylvania and the rest of the northeast, aside from some evangelical schools in northeast Ohio and in Virginia and North Carolina.

(I don't know how common that gripe is among Wheaton fans; it may be a minority opinion. I do know that others have said as an explanation for Wheaton's slide that former coach Jake DeClute simply didn't recruit well, period.)

There-in lies your main factor there. DeClute just wasn't a good fit. Say what you will about Mike Giuliano's in-game strategy, but he was a helluva recruiter while running the ship at Wheaton. The year they snapped their NCAA qualifying streak, he was pretty crushed. But they bounced back and eventually made the national title game with a boatload of All-Americans. Borge controlling the midfield, Hollingsworth speeding past everyone on the attack, the three Golz brothers living up to their names, Noah Anthony with one of the best free kick legs in the nation. The Thunder had some dudes on those squads.

Well, he's apparently learned a thing or two from his arch-nemesis John Born of NPU. Giuliano currently has six Swedes on his roster at Georgia Gwinnett, where he is the women's soccer coach and has had some pretty good success on the NAIA level thus far since leaving Wheaton.

Interesting, didn't know he was at Gwinnett now, glad he's doing well. His 4 career NAIA titles speak for themselves, good coach and a good guy.

[D3Navy]

Anybody have insight into key players to watch?

Ones who seem to be well known and have been mentioned this season include Giammattei with Amherst, Aroh with Tufts, Travis van Brewer at Tufts, Gomez with OWU, Olsen with North Park, Lukovic for Montclair, and Groothoff for Messiah.  Of those the only one apparently out due to injury is Groothoff.  Twigg at Calvin is another, and Turittin for John Carroll who I guessed was struggling with an injury earlier in the season but now based solely on watching internet video appears at full strength.  Anyway, I don't know who the MVP-type players are for Wash U, Chicago, NYU, Trinity, F&M, Emory, St Olaf, CNU, W&L, Oneonta, Hopkins, etc, etc.

Michael Meese at Trinity is terrific.  A threat to score anytime he's near the ball.  Several multiple goal games and he tied TU's consecutive game scoring streak this season.

Kid has a great background - transfer from William & Mary where he was a starter.

https://tribeathletics.com/sports/mens-soccer/roster/michael-meese/11491

Wow.  My new favorite player, and I'll be pulling hard for Trinity.

Do you know why the change?  Parents' alma mater, playing, apparently doing well as won some non-soccer award at W&M, etc.  I know Trinity is a great school, but that is quite a change.  Would have thought W&L, Swat, Hopkins, Haverford, Emory, NESCAC-land, etc would have been all over this kid if he was known to be downsizing to D3.

I'll see if I can learn more.  I'm an alum, but not involved in the program.  He's a big fish in the Trinity pond and there's a great sports program all around.  Great camaraderie clearly visible in all of the Fall sports.

[PaulNewman]

FYI, upon playing Webster, St Joseph's, and Rosemont....Chicago, NYU, and Amherst will have the top 3 SoS's at .692, .675, and .664, respectively.

[BracketMaster]

The picks are in! Thanks to all 68 people who submitted brackets, that gives us a good sample size to get a pulse on who the community is favoring. I have provided some data points that struck me as interesting below, and let me know if there is anything else worth looking into.

Some interesting takeaways:
-   Predicted champions: Tufts was the most common choice with 18 picks, and Messiah was close behind with 16. Consensus dropped off significantly after that, with Ohio Wesleyan being the next most picked team with 6.
-   UChicago was picked by 14 people to make the final, but only ONE person picked them to win it.
-   Only 3 brackets have Washington & Lee winning it all, interesting given the amount of time they spent at #1 in the national rankings.
-   Predicted Champions by Quadrant: Top Left – 25, Bottom Left – 23, Top Right – 12, Bottom Right – 9
-   Predicted Champions by Conference: NESCAC – 29, MACC – 16, NCAC 10, UAA – 4
-   Teams picked to make the final four more than 10 times: Tufts, Amherst, Messiah, UChicago, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan, WashU, Conn. College, and Middlebury

Community picks in notable first-round matchups:
-   Swarthmore 35 – 33 Stevens
-   Washington College 48 – 20 St. Lawrence
-   NYU 51 – 17 St. Joseph's (ME)
-   Denison 57 – 11 Covenant
-   Emory 53 – 15 Centre
-   North Central 49 – 19 Loras
-   Rochester (NY) 16 – 52 Calvin
-   Middlebury 53 – 15 SUNY Oneonta
-   Johns Hopkins 41 – 27 Penn St. Harrisburg

[Flying Weasel]

FYI, upon playing Webster, St Joseph's, and Rosemont....Chicago, NYU, and Amherst will have the top 3 SoS's at .692, .675, and .664, respectively.

I assume you are exaggerating to make the point that playing teams that we subjectively do not consider to be strong opponents can still help your SOS (or not hurt it as much as it maybe should) because of how it is calculated.  This is true, but the effect isn't nearly as extreme as you imply with those numbers. And in actuality, Amherst's SOS will drop fractionally due playing Rosemont.

Amherst: 16 games played with .638 SOS
Rosemont: .719 Win Pct., .441 OWP
Contribution to Amherst's SOS: .719 OWP, .441 OOWP  >>>  2/3 (.719) + 1/3 (.441) = .626
   (note that this is less than Amherst's current SOS, so it will pull the SOS down)
Amherst's updated SOS:  [ 16 (.638) + 1 (.626) ] / 17 = .637  SOS

Chicago: 18 games played with .649 SOS
Webster: .905 Win Pct., .469 OWP
Contribution to Chicago's SOS: .905 OWP, .469 OOWP  >>>  2/3 (.905) + 1/3 (.469) = .760
Chicago's updated SOS:  [ 18 (.649) + 1 (.760) ] / 19 = .655  SOS

NYU: 16 games played with .633 SOS
St. Joe's .895 Win Pct., .541 OWP
Contribution to NYU's SOS: .895 OWP, .541 OOWP  >>>  2/3 (.895) + 1/3 (.541) = .777
NYU's updated SOS:  [ 16 (.633) + 1 (.777) ] / 17 = .641  SOS

[LetteroftheLaw]

The picks are in! Thanks to all 68 people who submitted brackets, that gives us a good sample size to get a pulse on who the community is favoring. I have provided some data points that struck me as interesting below, and let me know if there is anything else worth looking into.

Some interesting takeaways:
-   Predicted champions: Tufts was the most common choice with 18 picks, and Messiah was close behind with 16. Consensus dropped off significantly after that, with Ohio Wesleyan being the next most picked team with 6.
-   UChicago was picked by 14 people to make the final, but only ONE person picked them to win it.
-   Only 3 brackets have Washington & Lee winning it all, interesting given the amount of time they spent at #1 in the national rankings.
-   Predicted Champions by Quadrant: Top Left – 25, Bottom Left – 23, Top Right – 12, Bottom Right – 9
-   Predicted Champions by Conference: NESCAC – 29, MACC – 16, NCAC 10, UAA – 4
-   Teams picked to make the final four more than 10 times: Tufts, Amherst, Messiah, UChicago, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan, WashU, Conn. College, and Middlebury

Community picks in notable first-round matchups:
-   Swarthmore 35 – 33 Stevens
-   Washington College 48 – 20 St. Lawrence
-   NYU 51 – 17 St. Joseph's (ME)
-   Denison 57 – 11 Covenant
-   Emory 53 – 15 Centre
-   North Central 49 – 19 Loras
-   Rochester (NY) 16 – 52 Calvin
-   Middlebury 53 – 15 SUNY Oneonta
-   Johns Hopkins 41 – 27 Penn St. Harrisburg

Great stuff, and glad you were able to get so much participation. Nothing too too surprising to me but very interesting nonetheless.
If you could provide a little bit more information on tendencies found in the top right quadrant I would appreciate it, that seems to be the most up in the air, maybe a stat for how many different teams people have in the final four from that bracket.
Also, I'm interested in how many people picked Kenyon over Messiah and if so how far they have Kenyon going.
Thank again!

[Mr.Right]

Which teams are using the religious exemption today?

[Mr.Right]

I see Calvin and who is at W&L using one?

[Mr.Right]

Quick reminder to anyone who is interested in participating in the bracket pool - I have set the deadline for 12pm EST tomorrow so make sure to submit your picks by then. Participation has been impressive so far, already 48 entries!

All of the picks will be visible after the deadline and I'll share some notable takeaways from the submitted brackets on here before the tournament kicks off.

The link to the bracket pool is below. As I said before, your name and email will not be visible, just your username and entry name.

https://www.runyourpool.com/join/pool_info.cfm?id=179402&p=ytcoyu

Someone is running with my handle..I did not participate but my handle did.

[Flying Weasel]

Which teams are using the religious exemption today?

I see Calvin and who is at W&L using one?

Covenant