2021 NCAA Tournament

[Bucket]

Generals up 5-1 at the half. Could have been more, but you have to be a Generals or Bearcats fan to keep watching this one.

Even all of my W&L soccer buddy alums have turned it off at this point  . . .

[PaulNewman]

Any UAA and Wash U faithful have any color to provide about Wash U?  Best season in years, wins UAA, skyrockets up the polls, but not much buzz about the Bears at all and not clear if most view them as true contenders.

I looked at some of their box scores.  Just a few where clearly dominated and within UAA only game with real advantage was CWRU.  Pretty even stats with Hope, North Park, and Brandeis.  In 3-0 win over CMU the Tartans led shots 13-9 and corners 7-2.  Otherwise, significant stats advantage for UR, NYU, and especially Emory -- 19-8 shots and 6-1 corners -- and Chicago -- 14-4 shots and 11-0 corners.  Emory was a 0-0 game.  I understand Chicago was chasing the game after Wash U scored in 5th minute, but still, 14-4 and 11-0 seems significant.  Does Wash U get a goal and then sit in the rest of the game?  Will this approach serve them in the NCAA tournament?

And for a team so highly valued, having to probably play North Park a second time at North Park seems pretty brutal.  I think I would lean North Park in that one.

[jknezek]

Well I toughed it out. Definitely not the most interesting second half as W&L goes through 6-1. Denison Covenant coming up in an hour. I assume it will be a better game but unfortunately I won't be around to watch it.

[Centennial1]

Obviously, W&L aren't bothered by Baruch, but they do have the tools to make a deep run. The one thing that I didn't see a ton of was speed to keep up with the Messiahs and NESCACers. The one player with speed was the #10, but his poise and vision aren't as good as the #6 and other midfielders. They do a great job turning away from defensive pressure without losing sight of the field, and have good skills up and down the pitch. The #6 looks to be their most dangerous player up top. He took a knock to the head about 15 minutes into the second half. That's where I would have rested him for the balance of the match, but the Coach had him right back in as the game got more and more physical. Looking forward to their round 2.

[BracketMaster]

The picks are in! Thanks to all 68 people who submitted brackets, that gives us a good sample size to get a pulse on who the community is favoring. I have provided some data points that struck me as interesting below, and let me know if there is anything else worth looking into.

Some interesting takeaways:
-   Predicted champions: Tufts was the most common choice with 18 picks, and Messiah was close behind with 16. Consensus dropped off significantly after that, with Ohio Wesleyan being the next most picked team with 6.
-   UChicago was picked by 14 people to make the final, but only ONE person picked them to win it.
-   Only 3 brackets have Washington & Lee winning it all, interesting given the amount of time they spent at #1 in the national rankings.
-   Predicted Champions by Quadrant: Top Left – 25, Bottom Left – 23, Top Right – 12, Bottom Right – 9
-   Predicted Champions by Conference: NESCAC – 29, MACC – 16, NCAC 10, UAA – 4
-   Teams picked to make the final four more than 10 times: Tufts, Amherst, Messiah, UChicago, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan, WashU, Conn. College, and Middlebury

Community picks in notable first-round matchups:
-   Swarthmore 35 – 33 Stevens
-   Washington College 48 – 20 St. Lawrence
-   NYU 51 – 17 St. Joseph's (ME)
-   Denison 57 – 11 Covenant
-   Emory 53 – 15 Centre
-   North Central 49 – 19 Loras
-   Rochester (NY) 16 – 52 Calvin
-   Middlebury 53 – 15 SUNY Oneonta
-   Johns Hopkins 41 – 27 Penn St. Harrisburg

Great stuff, and glad you were able to get so much participation. Nothing too too surprising to me but very interesting nonetheless.
If you could provide a little bit more information on tendencies found in the top right quadrant I would appreciate it, that seems to be the most up in the air, maybe a stat for how many different teams people have in the final four from that bracket.
Also, I'm interested in how many people picked Kenyon over Messiah and if so how far they have Kenyon going.
Thank again!

Here is how far people have Kenyon going: Second Round - 62, Sweet Sixteen - 18, Elite Eight - 13, Final Four - 8, Final - 5, Champion - 4

The drop off from Second Round to Sweet Sixteen says it all. 60 people have a Messiah vs. Kenyon match up, and Messiah is predicted by 42 to proceed.

[Flying Weasel]

FYI, upon playing Webster, St Joseph's, and Rosemont....Chicago, NYU, and Amherst will have the top 3 SoS's at .692, .675, and .664, respectively.

I assume you are exaggerating to make the point that playing teams that we subjectively do not consider to be strong opponents can still help your SOS (or not hurt it as much as it maybe should) because of how it is calculated.  This is true, but the effect isn't nearly as extreme as you imply with those numbers. And in actuality, Amherst's SOS will drop fractionally due playing Rosemont.

Amherst: 16 games played with .638 SOS
Rosemont: .719 Win Pct., .441 OWP
Contribution to Amherst's SOS: .719 OWP, .441 OOWP  >>>  2/3 (.719) + 1/3 (.441) = .626
   (note that this is less than Amherst's current SOS, so it will pull the SOS down)
Amherst's updated SOS:  [ 16 (.638) + 1 (.626) ] / 17 = .637  SOS

Chicago: 18 games played with .649 SOS
Webster: .905 Win Pct., .469 OWP
Contribution to Chicago's SOS: .905 OWP, .469 OOWP  >>>  2/3 (.905) + 1/3 (.469) = .760
Chicago's updated SOS:  [ 18 (.649) + 1 (.760) ] / 19 = .655  SOS

NYU: 16 games played with .633 SOS
St. Joe's .895 Win Pct., .541 OWP
Contribution to NYU's SOS: .895 OWP, .541 OOWP  >>>  2/3 (.895) + 1/3 (.541) = .777
NYU's updated SOS:  [ 16 (.633) + 1 (.777) ] / 17 = .641  SOS

Actually I quoted the numbers exactly from the NCAA site that @deiscanton provided 2-3 weeks ago.  No exaggeration or point I was trying to make.

In your post you said "SoS", but only now do I know that's not what you presented. That "Toughest Schedule" ranking on the NCAA stats website that deiscanton referenced is for Opponents' Winning Percentage (OWP) with head-to-head results removed, it is not the Strength of Schedule (SOS) that the soccer committees use for regional rankings and at-large selections.  The OWP from that webpage is 2/3's of the SOS, but is not the SOS. 

Your use of "SoS" confused me because I immediately knew that the SOS (used by the selection committee) could not jump that much due to one game this late in the season even if playing a truly top team.  I was comparing what you called SOS (but was actually OWP) to the actual end of regular season SOS (apples to oranges) and the jump was huge, e.g. from .649 to .692 for Chicago and it seemed that you were suggesting that a team's SOS could jump in the neighborhood of 40 points in one game at the end of the season.  My response was in reaction to that apparent suggestion.

While the SOS computation used by the selection committees has some flaws IMO, by going beyond just OWP and incorporating OOWP it accounts to some degree for a team having a gaudy record due to playing a weak schedule. I don't think it does enough as my computations for Chicago show that their SOS improves playing Webster when I think most of us subjectively know it should go down.  But it's much better an indicator that merely OWP.

[ConnAlum]

I put my first half notes in the 2021 Games Notes thread.  Done and dusted, not even close really.  More goals will be had for W&L.

Just as a matter of consistency, is there a preference where my game notes go?  In the thread I mentioned, or here?  Will do whatever.

I don't think it matters where you post them, I'll still read them either way. Thanks again for doing these recaps, really appreciate the work you put into them.

[PaulNewman]

FW, I knew I shouldn't have put my trust in deiscanton!  Joking of course, but I should have known yourself or others would have referenced those NCAA statistics before at least in terms of what you mean by SoS. 

I have a bit of a math phobia, so in another 10 years I still won't be able to follow the calculation.

Now, if anyone wants me to help them understand Heidegger....

[Another Mom]

I put my first half notes in the 2021 Games Notes thread.  Done and dusted, not even close really.  More goals will be had for W&L.

Just as a matter of consistency, is there a preference where my game notes go?  In the thread I mentioned, or here?  Will do whatever.

I don't think it matters where you post them, I'll still read them either way. Thanks again for doing these recaps, really appreciate the work you put into them.

Me too :-)

[LetteroftheLaw]

Absolutely brilliant set piece goal for the Bishops in the 88th minute. Give credit to Knox for a hard fought match but OWU controlled this one and will be moving on.

[ConnAlum]

OWU scores off a Gomez free kick w/ less than 2 min remaining to make it 1-0 v. Knox. Brutal way to lose for Knox but props to them for holding OWU scoreless for so long.

[PaulNewman]

Easier said than done, but after fighting that long you can't foul Gomez in those spots multiple times inside of two minutes.  Dude is lethal.  Not many pure soccer players better than him in the country.

[LetteroftheLaw]

This Denison vs Covenant game is pretty good as expected. Evenly matched teams with Covenant having the slight advantage. I feel like there is another goal in this one.

[PaulNewman]

Still feel like Denison may pull this out, but a total role reversal for them after last 2 game where their strategy was crystal clear.  They look like they don't know what to do.  This looks like Denison against Wooster or Hiram rather than OWU or Kenyon.

[Gregory Sager]

Final from Lexington, VA:

Covenant 1
Denison 0