2022 D3 tourney

[SpringSt7]

Wabash is 18th in Massey and Williams is 20th, yet Williams is favored by 3. Am I missing something?

[Augie2020]

Wabash is 18th in Massey and Williams is 20th, yet Williams is favored by 3. Am I missing something?

I wouldn't read to much into massey picking!

[SpringSt7]

I like having Massey in an analytics limited D3 world but I certainly don't swear by it. Just wondering how the higher ranked team can be underdogs on a neutral site. Seems like it throws the whole thing into question, unless there is some sort of style of play matchup behind the scenes that we don't see.

[Next Man Up]

Wabash is 18th in Massey and Williams is 20th, yet Williams is favored by 3. Am I missing something?

FWIW - I plugged in Ken Massey's analytics to the Third Round Bracket [Massey rank in Parens]:

Case Western Reserve Sectional
(22) Case Western Reserve 87 - (29) Mary Hardin-Baylor 82
(12) Elmhurst 77 - (23) Calvin 74

Illinois Wesleyan Sectional
(18) Williams 79 – (20) Wabash 78 – Closest game
(6) IWU 73 – (16) Wheaton 69

Marietta Sectional
(2) Marietta 78 – (14) Oswego 71 – Smallest combined ranking
(4) Chris. Newport 78 – (28) Stockton 73

Randolph Macon Sectional
(1) Randolph-Macon 78 – (26) UMass- Dartmouth 67
(9) Worcester Tech 62 – (44) Rensselaer 57

Not sure where the above numbers came from but as of right now Massey is showing the following predictions;

CWR 84, MHB 85
Elmhurst 78, Calvin 73
Williams 80, Wabash 77
Wheaton 71, IWU 69
Marietta 75, Oswego 73
Chris. Newport 77, Stockton 74
Randolph Macon 75, MA-Dartmouth 69
Worcester Tech 63, Rensselaer 55

As SpringSt7 questioned above, it doesn't make a lot of sense for Massey's 20th ranked team to be favored over his 18th ranked team (or #16 to be picked over #6). System malfunction somewhere along the way?

[Augie2020]

I like having Massey in an analytics limited D3 world but I certainly don't swear by it. Just wondering how the higher ranked team can be underdogs on a neutral site. Seems like it throws the whole thing into question, unless there is some sort of style of play matchup behind the scenes that we don't see.

Or a home team only win by 1 !Scranton women 51% Babson 49% and it was 12 the lady Royals had control of that game for 39 minutes

[Next Man Up]

Possible solution to the above problem..............

One of the Massey fields is HFA or home field (court) advantage. Has his system factored in these figures in favor of the team designated as the "home" even though they may be ranked lower than their next opponent and several games are at neutral sites rather than home courts for the teams involved?

[Augie2020]

Give you another example Scranton women beat Desales ladies early in the year match them two teams up and Scranton loses to Desales.The game is played on the court not by Massey and it is wrong alot.Another example couple years ago Scranton men had to travel to Middlebury everyone had Scranton buried guess what Scranton won but next night Cabrini crushed us.So take it with a grain of salt!Like I said game is played on the court just like N.C and Duke(heavily favored) but got punched in the mouth.

[Pat Coleman]

Possible solution to the above problem..............

One of the Massey fields is HFA or home field (court) advantage. Has his system factored in these figures in favor of the team designated as the "home" even though they may be ranked lower than their next opponent and several games are at neutral sites rather than home courts for the teams involved?

That sounds like it's probable. Good catch.

[SpringSt7]

Give you another example Scranton women beat Desales ladies early in the year match them two teams up and Scranton loses to Desales.The game is played on the court not by Massey and it is wrong alot.Another example couple years ago Scranton men had to travel to Middlebury everyone had Scranton buried guess what Scranton won but next night Cabrini crushed us.So take it with a grain of salt!Like I said game is played on the court just like N.C and Duke(heavily favored) but got punched in the mouth.

Not saying the computer is supposed to get the picks 100% correct. That would be absurd. Just pointing out a direct flaw in the projections. HFA designation makes a lot of sense, so thank you Next Man Up for pointing that out.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Wabash is 18th in Massey and Williams is 20th, yet Williams is favored by 3. Am I missing something?

FWIW - I plugged in Ken Massey's analytics to the Third Round Bracket [Massey rank in Parens]:

Case Western Reserve Sectional
(22) Case Western Reserve 87 - (29) Mary Hardin-Baylor 82
(12) Elmhurst 77 - (23) Calvin 74

Illinois Wesleyan Sectional
(18) Williams 79 – (20) Wabash 78 – Closest game
(6) IWU 73 – (16) Wheaton 69

Marietta Sectional
(2) Marietta 78 – (14) Oswego 71 – Smallest combined ranking
(4) Chris. Newport 78 – (28) Stockton 73

Randolph Macon Sectional
(1) Randolph-Macon 78 – (26) UMass- Dartmouth 67
(9) Worcester Tech 62 – (44) Rensselaer 57

Not sure where the above numbers came from but as of right now Massey is showing the following predictions;

CWR 84, MHB 85
Elmhurst 78, Calvin 73
Williams 80, Wabash 77
Wheaton 71, IWU 69
Marietta 75, Oswego 73
Chris. Newport 77, Stockton 74
Randolph Macon 75, MA-Dartmouth 69
Worcester Tech 63, Rensselaer 55

As SpringSt7 questioned above, it doesn't make a lot of sense for Massey's 20th ranked team to be favored over his 18th ranked team (or #16 to be picked over #6). System malfunction somewhere along the way?

If you check the games as you have done, it has taken the teams and put the first team as road and 2nd team as home and none of them are correct. If you manually do the matchups as bear did you can select a neutral court/correct home team.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Two teams that are 2 places apart in the rankings are going to be quite close in terms of predictions.

Looking at some of the other data for the two
Rat: Rating overall strength
Pwr: Power rating
Off: Offensive power to score
Def: Defensive power to prevent opponent from scoring

Wabash
Rat: 18, Pwr: 26, Off: 5, Def 269
Williams
Rat: 20, Pwr: 25, Off: 117, Def 14

I'm guessing the computer likes Williams ok O vs Wabash bad D to score more than Wabash great O vs Williams great D

I checked Wabash vs WashU (the team between them in 19th). Wash U has worse off than Williams but better def and Massey has WashU as a 57% favorite. I think the key is not just raw rankings but the matchups. Wabash has by far the worst def according to Massey of anyone in the top 40.

[Next Man Up]

Possible solution to the above problem..............

One of the Massey fields is HFA or home field (court) advantage. Has his system factored in these figures in favor of the team designated as the "home" even though they may be ranked lower than their next opponent and several games are at neutral sites rather than home courts for the teams involved?

That sounds like it's probable. Good catch.

Thank you. All we can do is try.

[Next Man Up]

Wabash is 18th in Massey and Williams is 20th, yet Williams is favored by 3. Am I missing something?

FWIW - I plugged in Ken Massey's analytics to the Third Round Bracket [Massey rank in Parens]:

Case Western Reserve Sectional
(22) Case Western Reserve 87 - (29) Mary Hardin-Baylor 82
(12) Elmhurst 77 - (23) Calvin 74

Illinois Wesleyan Sectional
(18) Williams 79 – (20) Wabash 78 – Closest game
(6) IWU 73 – (16) Wheaton 69

Marietta Sectional
(2) Marietta 78 – (14) Oswego 71 – Smallest combined ranking
(4) Chris. Newport 78 – (28) Stockton 73

Randolph Macon Sectional
(1) Randolph-Macon 78 – (26) UMass- Dartmouth 67
(9) Worcester Tech 62 – (44) Rensselaer 57

Not sure where the above numbers came from but as of right now Massey is showing the following predictions;

CWR 84, MHB 85
Elmhurst 78, Calvin 73
Williams 80, Wabash 77
Wheaton 71, IWU 69
Marietta 75, Oswego 73
Chris. Newport 77, Stockton 74
Randolph Macon 75, MA-Dartmouth 69
Worcester Tech 63, Rensselaer 55

As SpringSt7 questioned above, it doesn't make a lot of sense for Massey's 20th ranked team to be favored over his 18th ranked team (or #16 to be picked over #6). System malfunction somewhere along the way?

If you check the games as you have done, it has taken the teams and put the first team as road and 2nd team as home and none of them are correct. If you manually do the matchups as bear did you can select a neutral court/correct home team.

I want to make it clear that I wasn't criticizing Bear. Just reporting that the numbers I saw at the time I looked were different than those he posted. I thought what had probably happened was Massey had run another set of updated figures since Bear posted. I now see what he did. He did good work. 

[Next Man Up]

Two teams that are 2 places apart in the rankings are going to be quite close in terms of predictions.

Looking at some of the other data for the two
Rat: Rating overall strength
Pwr: Power rating
Off: Offensive power to score
Def: Defensive power to prevent opponent from scoring

Wabash
Rat: 18, Pwr: 26, Off: 5, Def 269
Williams
Rat: 20, Pwr: 25, Off: 117, Def 14

I'm guessing the computer likes Williams ok O vs Wabash bad D to score more than Wabash great O vs Williams great D

I checked Wabash vs WashU (the team between them in 19th). Wash U has worse off than Williams but better def and Massey has WashU as a 57% favorite. I think the key is not just raw rankings but the matchups. Wabash has by far the worst def according to Massey of anyone in the top 40.

Yep, all of this makes sense. And no matter what sport you're talking about we all know how important your last sentence regarding defense is. Good defense so often proves to be the primary reason a team emerges with the W.

[thebear]

Being retired, and on [temporary] medical limited duty, I have plenty of time to do this here in my home office/man cave. 

Yes I went through game by game, and did the host/visitor/neutral matchup that Ken Massey's site provides.

Right side of the bracket still has the #1 (R-M), 2 (Marietta), and 4 (CNU) teams alive.  Left side is led by IWU at #6.