2022 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

coach analytics, the pushback you're getting has almost nothing to do with NYU.  It's all about maintaining (and enhancing) the shine of another team.

Regarding NYU, obviously it's not a zero sum game between NYU and MSU.  I think almost all of us projected both getting bids pretty comfortably. Other candidates MSU could have replaced are Lynchburg, CMU, Vassar, Platteville, etc....Your point about NYU having a RvR of 1-4-1 is a good one though.  I'm not sure that was front and center in my mind a week ago but I'm sure the cmte noticed. 

[Bucket]

NYU played the two best teams in the country and tied one of them a man down for 60 minutes.

I highly doubt that the committee takes into account how many posts you hit or how many times you played a man down and showed real grit.

I do not see the results at all.  Nothing against NYU at all but when your best win is against a #7 ranked regional team (and you lost 4) I find it hard to understand the rationale.

Tying the #1 ranked team in the country doesn't count for much? Ok.

How about this, watch them play Williams on Saturday and you'll see exactly why they're in the tournament.

National rankings are not a criteria for tournament selection. Neither are posts hit. Or minutes played man down..

[Maine Soccer Fan]

NYU played the two best teams in the country and tied one of them a man down for 60 minutes.

I highly doubt that the committee takes into account how many posts you hit or how many times you played a man down and showed real grit.

I do not see the results at all.  Nothing against NYU at all but when your best win is against a #7 ranked regional team (and you lost 4) I find it hard to understand the rationale.

Tying the #1 ranked team in the country doesn't count for much? Ok.

How about this, watch them play Williams on Saturday and you'll see exactly why they're in the tournament.

National rankings are not a criteria for tournament selection. Neither are posts hit. Or minutes played man down..

I"m pretty sure SOS and RvR are very important criteria. Am I wrong on that?

[coach analytics]

NYU played the two best teams in the country and tied one of them a man down for 60 minutes.

I highly doubt that the committee takes into account how many posts you hit or how many times you played a man down and showed real grit.

I do not see the results at all.  Nothing against NYU at all but when your best win is against a #7 ranked regional team (and you lost 4) I find it hard to understand the rationale.

Tying the #1 ranked team in the country doesn't count for much? Ok.

How about this, watch them play Williams on Saturday and you'll see exactly why they're in the tournament.

National rankings are not a criteria for tournament selection. Neither are posts hit. Or minutes played man down..

I"m pretty sure SOS and RvR are very important criteria. Am I wrong on that?

"Tying the no. 1 ranked team in the country does not count for much. OK". I do not think it does in the minds of the committee.  The rvr counts all regionally ranked teams and their record was 1-4-1 with a win over 7 and a tie over 1.  Maybe the tie against a #1 regionally ranked (not nationally ranked) team does matter but it does not change my question ...how does a team with 1-4-1 rvr make it over a team with 2-2 when the team also has a much stronger overall record. I will bet that almost every other at large team had a better rvr. 1-4-1 was one of if not the worst I have seen from the at large bids. 

I tend to agree with PN in that maybe Montclair state and NYU both deserved it.

It will be a marquee game when they play Williams this weekend because both teams were clearly on the bubble and had mediocre results in the top two conferences.

[paclassic89]

RvR isn't the only criteria lol.  NYU's SoS was .619.  Combine that with their record and they weren't anywhere close to the bubble.  I'm not sure people, and this might be an issue with the committee as well which is why I advocate for an adjusted RPI  , really appreciate the massive difference between a SoS of .619 and one of .537 just by eyeballing it

[Maine Soccer Fan]

That .619 SoS is the highest in the region and higher than any NESCAC team.

[coach analytics]

RvR isn't the only criteria lol.  NYU's SoS was .619.  Combine that with their record and they weren't anywhere close to the bubble.  I'm not sure people, and this might be an issue with the committee as well which is why I advocate for an adjusted RPI  , really appreciate the massive difference between a SoS of .619 and one of .537 just by eyeballing it

I agree that an RPI type formula would be far superior to a straight SOS.  The problem with SOS is that it really just looks at opponents record for 2/3s of the weighting.  For the NESCAC teams that play 10 of their 15 games in conference which means mathematically 10 of the games are against teams with 2/3 of their schedule in total balance out since they are all playing each other.  This compares to a UAA team which plays less than half their games in conference.

Take one simple example in Region 1...Rhode Island College has a similar sos to Hamilton.  That does not pass the smell test.

This is the exact reason that for mens college basketball the NCAA uses RPI to establish tiers but then looks at the won-loss record of each team against those tiers....This is similar to D3 soccer with the rvr. 

This is why i am surprised that NYU gets in over someone like Montclair.  Their sos is significantly boosted by playing Messiah, Stevens and Chicago (and I applaud them for two very very strong out of conf games unlike WestConn) but they only took a point from these three games and only 1 regional win all season.  In region 1, Middlebury dropped behind tufts and Williams because of their poor rvr.  Seems inconsistent.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

NYU was always getting in. With that kind of SOS (possibly the highest in the nation) and a solid RvR there was never a doubt. The head scratcher is Montclair missing out. Shambolic from the committee to select Catholic an CMU over Montclair.

In CMU's defense, they had the resume on paper--but so did Hamilton who was left out. Easy to say now after Calvin embarrassed them, but for anyone that has watched CMU this year knew they weren't up for it.

If the committee watched any of the conference playoffs it would have been clear as day that Montclair was the superior team compared to the others I mention. For as wrong as they were with that miss, they got the other 18 to 19 selections spot on. But that's still not a pass to ignore the blatant miss on Montclair.

Do we really think Montclair loses to Calvin 5-0?

[d4_Pace]

If Montclair gave up a goal against the run of play early, they absolutely could lose 5-0 to Calvin. They are known to fall apart when things don't go their way.

[Hopkins92]

Montclair lost 3-0 in their conference final game.

[Flying Weasel]

If the committee watched any of the conference playoffs it would have been clear as day that Montclair was the superior team compared to the others I mention. For as wrong as they were with that miss, they got the other 18 to 19 selections spot on. But that's still not a pass to ignore the blatant miss on Montclair.

The thing is, the ranking and selection criteria doesn't officially provide room for personal, first hand observation of teams to factor in.  Sure, that first hand impression could influence a committee member, but every decision needs to be defensible using the established criteria, so there's only so much wiggle room.  If some committee members believed subjectively that Montclair State should be selected, they would have had to tout their winning pct, and de-emphasize SOS and RvR. Not easy to do when we all know that SOS and RvR are highly valued in the regional rankings and national selection process.  That said, even based on the criteria and having a sense for how the committee applies and weights the criteria, I think Montlcair has a solid case against Pacific Lutheran, Carnegie Mellon, NYU and Middlebury, and it's hard to see how they got beat out by all four of them.  By the numbers, I get Catholic, Vassar and Lynchburg getting selected before Montclair, but losing out to all four of the previously mentioned teams is very tough to understand, and I have no horse in this race and if anything bring a anti-NJAC fan bias to the table.

[Flying Weasel]

If Montclair gave up a goal against the run of play early, they absolutely could lose 5-0 to Calvin. They are known to fall apart when things don't go their way.

This!

[Flying Weasel]

Montclair lost 3-0 in their conference final game.

Thing is, I'm not sure the margin and nature of the loss could technically be considered.  Where does that fit into the criteria?  Now, that doesn't mean it couldn't/wouldn't influence the ranking/selection process.  I guess as a game against a ranked opponent, the criteria "results against ranked opponents" would allow the score to be considered the result.  But, would the score line in a loss to an unranked opponent be unable to be considered, but the score line versus a ranked opponent could be?  Who knows for sure. 

It was a bigger loss than any suffered by any of the other bubble teams that they were up against for an at-large berth.

[Hopkins92]

Sorry, just responding the the notion that Calvin could "blow out" Montclair. We have recent evidence that if they go down in a one off game, things could get out of hand.

I watched that game and it wasn't a blowout. But the second goal broke them.

[Flying Weasel]

Sorry, just responding the the notion that Calvin could "blow out" Montclair. We have recent evidence that if they go down in a one off game, things could get out of hand.

I watched that game and it wasn't a blowout. But the second goal broke them.

Yeah, when I replied my mind was on Montclair's at-large selection snub, not how bad they could be beaten.  On second read I totally get your point and agree with you and d4_Pace.