2022 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Newman's Late Summer Menu Selections (through September 14 with online ordering available)

Two Chef's Specials above all others...Messiah @ W&L on opening day and the NESCAC heavyweight tournament that should be played at one venue as a doubleheader on Sept. 10. 

September 1, 2022

Messiah @ W&L $$$$$
Rochester @ Cortland St $$$$
Rowan @ Hopkins $$$$
RPI @ Montclair $$$
Chicago @ Kzoo $$
Ohio Northern @ Kenyon $$
Centre @ Otterbein $
Wash U @ Carthage $

September 2, 2022

Redlands @ Calvin $$$$
CWRU @ OWU $$

September 3, 2022

Kenyon @ John Carroll $$$$
C-M-S @ Trinity (TX) $$$$
Loras @ OWU $$$
Messiah @ Lynchburg $$$
Babson @ R-Newark $$$
Kzoo @ North Central $$
Wheaton @ Chicago $$
WPI @ Skidmore $$

September 4, 2022

Rowan @ Trinity (TX) $$$$
F&M @ Stevens $$$
Denison @ Brandeis $$$
North Park @ Ohio Northern $$
Hopkins @ Lycoming $
Mt Union @ Rochester $
R-Camden @ Swarthmore $

September 5, 2022

Cortland St @ Swarthmore $$

September 6, 2022

Tufts @ MIT $$$
Hopkins @ Mary Washington $$$

September 7, 2022

Haverford @ Rowan $$
Stevens @ R-Newark $$
WPI @ Brandeis $$
Mt Union @ Denison $

September 9, 2022

St Olaf @ North Park $$$$
Chicago @ DePauw

September 10, 2022

Conn Coll @ Tufts $$$$$
Middlebury @ Amherst $$$$$
Calvin @ OWU $$$$
Montclair @ Redlands $$$$
Cortland St @ Hopkins $$$$
SLU @ Oneonta $$$
Babson @ Brandeis $$$
Vassar @ Stevens $$
Colby @ Wesleyan $$
Otterbein @ CWRU $$
Carnegie Mellon @ John Carroll $$
Rowan @ Skidmore $$
New Paltz St @ NYU $$

September 11, 2022

St Olaf @ Chicago $$$$
Emory @ Hopkins $$$$
Cortland St @ Mary Wash $$$
Kenyon @ Centre $$$
Hobart @ Oneonta $$$
Loras @ GAC $$$
Rowan @ Lycoming $$

September 13, 2022

Tufts @ Wesleyan $$$
Stevens @ NYU $$$

September 14, 2022

Wash U @ North Park $$$$
C-M-S @ Redlands $$$$
Rowan @ Cortland St $$$$
John Carroll @ CWRU $$$
Vassar @ New Paltz St $$

[D3Navy]

As of now, I plan to be at both Trinity games on the weekend of the 3rd.  Hope to have some relevant observations.

What a great start!

[PaulNewman]

Messiah @ W&L.....My D3 knowledge only goes back to about 2010/2011.  That said, I can't recall another time when Messiah in a regular season game goes in as the slight underdog or at best even odds.  The closest might be the season opener for the Falcons in 2011, also away, at OWU.  Messiah scored 29 seconds in and went up 2-0 in the 2nd half before Travis Wall pulled one back in the 86th minute.  Messiah walked away with a 2-1 win in front of 1400 at Roy Rike.  OWU would not lose again until the the NCAC final when the Battling Bishops were shocked 4-2 by DePauw (Brad Stevens coached that night lol).  As an aside and indication of better days for Allegheny, OWU knocked out the Gators in the NCAC semis.  OWU would not have another loss as they marched on to the NCAA title.  Messiah was shocked at home in the 2nd round by Neumann 1-0 in OT.  Montclair knocked out Neumann and went to the Final Four where OWU dispatched MSU 4-0 in the national semis.  OWU went on to best perennial bridesmade Calvin in the 2011 final 2-1.  So Messiah and OWU would have had a rematch in the national semis.  OWU had their own heartbreak the previous year of 2010, losing at home in the Elite 8 to Lynchburg 2-0 despite outshooting the Hornets 28-17.  Messiah won in 2010, defeating Lynchburg in a final with some controversy. 

[4231CenterBack]

With respect, I disagree.  Zimmerman appears to be gone.  Think about W&L's tourney results minus his goals last year....Kutsanzira will be serving his red card suspension.  That's the 3 goals from the elite 8 match.  I don't think Messiah thinks about revenge but there is that possible factor as well. How many teams have beaten Messiah twice in a row this century?  Are there any?

Luke Groothoff will be back and hopefully 100% for Messiah.  He's an all-american and arguably their best player.  They have lost some quality but return 3 all-americans up the spine (Groothoff, Lent-Koop, Brautigam).  That said, it should be a GREAT match which I will be attending in person 

[Another Mom]

Ha, we should say hello!

While Zimmerman's performance during the tournament was one for the ages, he was not the leading scorer before the tournament.  I was struck, during last season, by how many players on W&L's team scored goals, which contrasted with most (all?) of W&L's opponents,  who would have 1 - 3 dominant players, and it would drop off dramatically from there.

That said, I certainly am intimidated by Messiah's reputation, and believe it will be a great game!

[Another Mom]

In fact, looking at team statistics from last year, they each scored 70 goals. W&L allowed 19, and Messiah 14. W&L have an  entirely new back line, with the exception of RB PJ Ryan, so how W&L does defensively is a question mark.

[4231CenterBack]

Yeah, it raises an interesting question that McCarty and SimpleCoach discussed in their video.  "Goals by committee" is great during the regular season but in the big tournament matches against top competition do you need "a guy"? F&M had Zimmerman and Messiah had a bunch of guys who had scored 5-7 goals.  I re-watched last year's match and Messiah had the ball and connected 100s of passes but their finishing was poor and they often "over-passed" when they were dangerous.  On the other side, W&L had a worldie from Kutsanzira and Zimmerman did his thing.  W&L was very efficient in taking their chances.

[PaulNewman]

With respect, I disagree.  Zimmerman appears to be gone.  Think about W&L's tourney results minus his goals last year....Kutsanzira will be serving his red card suspension.  That's the 3 goals from the elite 8 match.  I don't think Messiah thinks about revenge but there is that possible factor as well. How many teams have beaten Messiah twice in a row this century?  Are there any?

Luke Groothoff will be back and hopefully 100% for Messiah.  He's an all-american and arguably their best player.  They have lost some quality but return 3 all-americans up the spine (Groothoff, Lent-Koop, Brautigam).  That said, it should be a GREAT match which I will be attending in person 

LOL, disagree with what exactly?  Messiah apparently can't be complimented enough. Almost all of us make sure to give proper deference to the Messiah program.  I suggested they've been favored in every regular season game (and probably every tournament game until last year's tilt with W&L) for at least 11 years, and they may have been the slight favorite even for that 2011 OWU opener.  Are you suggesting that Messiah should be favored against W&L?  I said slight underdog or even odds.  I had not realized Groothoff was returning and obviously that is a big deal.  We'll see if he can match his pre-injury form.

Should be a tremendous game which I think I underscored by labeling it the best match for at least the first couple of weeks.

I'm sure there will be some overreactions after the outcome either way, but in truth a 4-1 win by either won't have much impact on the rest of their seasons.  And they certainly could play again in the tournament.

I'm gonna guess ends in a draw...2-2.

[Another Mom]

Yeah, it raises an interesting question that McCarty and SimpleCoach discussed in their video.  "Goals by committee" is great during the regular season but in the big tournament matches against top competition do you need "a guy"? F&M had Zimmerman and Messiah had a bunch of guys who had scored 5-7 goals.  I re-watched last year's match and Messiah had the ball and connected 100s of passes but their finishing was poor and they often "over-passed" when they were dangerous.  On the other side, W&L had a worldie from Kutsanzira and Zimmerman did his thing.  W&L was very efficient in taking their chances.

My opinion is that the problem with relying on "a guy" is that talented teams can shut that guy down. If no one else can step up and score, then the team with "the guy" loses.

[PaulNewman]

After I realized that there has not been a champion other than Messiah or a NESCAC going back to OWU and 2011, I was curious about prior to that...which I think gives some daunting perspective on the enormity of the task if you are not Messiah or a NESCAC.  After 2011 you have to go to 2003 and Trinity (TX), 2001 with Richard Stockton, and then, going backwards, prior to Messiah's first title in 2000, finally multiple non-Messiah, Non-NESCAC with SLU in 1999, OWU again in 1998, Wheaton (Ill) in 1997, TCNJ in 1996.  Then back to NESCAC with Williams in 1995, followed by Bethany, UC San Diego, Kean, UC San Diego again, and Rowan.  Anyway, in the last 20 years since Messiah won in 2002 there have been only two non-Messiah, non-NESCAC champs, Trinity in 2003 and OWU in 2011.  A handful of other schools came close but fell short....Calvin obviously, Loras definitely, RUT-Camden, Brandeis, Chicago, North Park, Wheaton (Ill)...


CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY
YEAR   CHAMPION (RECORD)   COACH   SCORE   RUNNER-UP   HOST OR SITE
2021   Connecticut College (19-4-1)   Reuben Burk   1-1 (2ot, pk)   Amherst   Greensboro, N.C.
2020   Canceled due to Covid-19   --   --   --   --
2019   Tufts (20-2-2)   Josh Shapiro   2-0   Amherst   Greensboro, N.C.
2018   Tufts (18-0-3)   Josh Shapiro   2-1   Calvin   Greensboro, N.C.
2017   Messiah (24-2-0)   Brad McCarty   2-1   North Park   Greensboro, N.C.
2016   Tufts (14-5-2)   Josh Shapiro   1-0 (2ot)   Calvin   Salem, Va.
2015   Amherst (17-1-2)   Justin Serpone   2-1   Loras   Kansas City, Mo.
2014   Tufts (17-2-4)   Josh Shapiro   4-2   Wheaton (Ill.)   Kansas City, Mo.
2013   Messiah (24-1-1)   Brad McCarty   2-1   Rutgers-Camden   San Antonio
2012   Messiah (23-0-2)   Brad McCarty   5-1   Ohio Northern   San Antonio
2011   Ohio Wesleyan (23-2-0)   Jay Martin   2-1   Calvin   San Antonio
2010   Messiah (23-1)   Brad McCarty   2-1 (ot)   Lynchburg (Va.)   San Antonio
2009   Messiah (24-1)   Brad McCarty   2-0   Calvin   San Antonio
2008   *Messiah (22-2-2)   Dave Brandt   1-1 (2ot, pk)   Stevens Institute   Greensboro, N.C.
2007   *Middlebury (18-2-2)   Dave Saward   0-0 (2ot, pk)   Trinity (Texas)   Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
2006   Messiah (21-1-2)   Dave Brandt   3-0   Wheaton (Ill.)   Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
2005   Messiah (24-0)   Dave Brandt   1-0   Gustavus Adolphus   Greensboro, N.C.
2004   Messiah (23-2)   Dave Brandt   4-0   UC Santa Cruz   Greensboro, N.C.
2003   Trinity (Texas) (24-0-0)   Paul McGinlay   2-1   Drew   Drew
2002   Messiah (23-2-1)   Dave Brandt   1-0   Otterbein   St. Lawrence
2001   Richard Stockton (25-1-1)   Jeff Haines   3-2   Redlands   Messiah
2000   Messiah (22-2-1)   Dave Brandt   2-0   Rowan   Rowan
1999   St. Lawrence (22-0)   Bob Durocher   2-0   Wheaton (Ill.)   Wheaton (Ill.)
1998   Ohio Wesleyan (18-6)   Jay Martin   2-1 (2ot)   Greensboro   Ohio Wesleyan
1997   Wheaton (Ill.) (24-0-1)   Joe Bean   3-0   TCNJ   Mary Washington
1996   TCNJ (17-5-1)   George Nazario   2-1 (4ot)   Kenyon   Kenyon
1995   Williams (17-0-1)   Mike Russo   2-1   Methodist   Williams
1994   Bethany (W.Va.) (15-5-4)   John Cunningham   1-0 (2ot)   Johns Hopkins   TCNJ
1993   UC San Diego (20-2-2)   Derek Armstrong   1-0   Williams   Williams
1992   Kean (18-6-1)   Tony Ochrimenko   3-1   Ohio Wesleyan   Kean
1991   UC San Diego (18-4-1)   Derek Armstrong   1-0   TCNJ   UC San Diego
1990   Rowan (20-3-2)   Dan Gilmore   2-1 (4ot, pk)   Ohio Wesleyan   Ohio Wesleyan

[Saint of Old]

Messiah = Bayern Munich
Tufts = Manchester City
Ohio Wesleyan = Juve
Amherst = Chelsea
Trinity = PSG
SLU = Ajax
Conn College = Leicester

[4231CenterBack]

With respect, I disagree.  Zimmerman appears to be gone.  Think about W&L's tourney results minus his goals last year....Kutsanzira will be serving his red card suspension.  That's the 3 goals from the elite 8 match.  I don't think Messiah thinks about revenge but there is that possible factor as well. How many teams have beaten Messiah twice in a row this century?  Are there any?

Luke Groothoff will be back and hopefully 100% for Messiah.  He's an all-american and arguably their best player.  They have lost some quality but return 3 all-americans up the spine (Groothoff, Lent-Koop, Brautigam).  That said, it should be a GREAT match which I will be attending in person 

LOL, disagree with what exactly?  Messiah apparently can't be complimented enough. Almost all of us make sure to give proper deference to the Messiah program.  I suggested they've been favored in every regular season game (and probably every tournament game until last year's tilt with W&L) for at least 11 years, and they may have been the slight favorite even for that 2011 OWU opener.  Are you suggesting that Messiah should be favored against W&L?  I said slight underdog or even odds.  I had not realized Groothoff was returning and obviously that is a big deal.  We'll see if he can match his pre-injury form.

Should be a tremendous game which I think I underscored by labeling it the best match for at least the first couple of weeks.

I'm sure there will be some overreactions after the outcome either way, but in truth a 4-1 win by either won't have much impact on the rest of their seasons.  And they certainly could play again in the tournament.

I'm gonna guess ends in a draw...2-2.

Not trying to be funny.  Simply suggesting that based on the facts I shared I believe IMO that Messiah is the favorite.

[PaulNewman]

Fair enough, CB, but I think you missed my point.  When was the last time, especially over the past 10-12 years when there would even be a discussion about who is favored?  I'm guessing at least a slight majority would view W&L as a slight fave or even odds even if many in that same group predicted a Messiah win.  Who is favored and who you think will win don't always track together.

Some random thoughts...

A player missing a game based on a red the last game of last season seems ludicrous to me....UNLESS the red reflected behavior that would justify a multiple game ban (like for fighting).

I mentioned 1400 were at OWU for Messiah @ OWU in 2011.  There were 2980 for Kenyon @ Messiah in 2013 (in bitterly frigid weather).  I've been at both venues, and while admitting that I haven't experienced some of the other legendary venues, OWU and Messiah provided by far the most electric atmospheres.  Messiah is much bigger but OWU feels nearly as big because the crowd is literally right on top of the field and both benches.  And the snack bar has really tasty cheeseburgers.

I resonate with and envy returning and new parents who will have kids on teams.  I vividly recall the days of wondering and worrying about whether my basically unrecruited kid would earn a jersey, ever play if he got a jersey, be part of an emerging program, enjoy some magical moments, etc.  It's not always glory and smooth-sailing and some kids end up having to make a very difficult decision regarding the game they love.  Also, back in 2011/2012 there wasn't always video, even for places like OWU, which I "watched" vs Kenyon in 2011 via LIVE STATS.  Not seeing the game and then seeing your kid's name pop up for something positive on live stats is quite a thrill. 

Last thought about Messiah.  Messiah may be just as good as they've always been with some other programs simply catching up.  At least for the past 5-7 years I don't think Messiah has been viewed as head and shoulders above other top tier programs.  It's subtle perhaps, but it's the difference between being THE team every year versus perennially ONE OF the top five or six.  Tufts definitely has been superior and one could argue that Calvin has been as well since 2015ish.  And probably Amherst.

[camosfan]

Messiah = Bayern Munich
Tufts = Manchester City
Ohio Wesleyan = Juve
Amherst = Chelsea
Trinity = PSG
SLU = Ajax
Conn College = Leicester


Pretty good comparison!

[Another Mom]

I love hearing your thoughts @PaulNewman. It certainly isn't smooth sailing for every, or even most players during recruiting and later once on a college team.

I am so grateful for livestreaming, but I was flying one game day last fall, and couldn't stream the game. I had to follow along with live stats so know exactly what that was like. (It was, in fact, the only game my son scored in, so while nothing like seeing it, it was still surprisingly exciting reading it!).