2022 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[SimpleCoach]

There is something that happens when a team goes down a man or up a man.  The team that goes down a man is forced to organize itself from a survival stand point.  Obviously, the attack is what gets sacrificed, but more importantly it removes decision from the rest of the players.  For a team that is up a man, something happens where they lose their organization because psychologically they think they are a man up and think they have a lot more time and space to whatever they want.

I've not heard about that from Arrigo Sacchi before.  But the brilliance of it ....

SC.

[Gregory Sager]

Regarding 9v11: In my favorite soccer book, which I've pitched here a few times, The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong By Chris Anderson, David Sally, there's this passage on page 213...
'Take Arrigo Sacchi. Though not a top-level player himself, Sacchi was the mastermind behind the rise of AC Milan, making them the finest side in the world in the late 1980s. In 2004, the Italian was appointed as technical director of Real Madrid.

I convinced Gullit and Van Basten by telling them that five organised players would beat ten disorganised ones,' Saachi explained. 'And I proved it to them. I took five players: Giovanni Galli in goal, Tassotti, Maldini, Costacurta and Baresi. They had ten players:  Gullit, Van Basten, Rijkaard, Virdis, Evani, Ancelotti, Colombo, Donadoni, Lantignotti and Mannari. They had fifteen minutes to score against my five  players, the only rule was that if we won possession or they lost the ball, they had to start over from ten metres inside their own half. I did this all the time and  they never scored. Not once.'

An AC Milan catenaccio analogy? I'll gladly take that.

There is something that happens when a team goes down a man or up a man.  The team that goes down a man is forced to organize itself from a survival stand point.  Obviously, the attack is what gets sacrificed,

That's the thing, though; NPU didn't play from a survival standpoint at all. For one, they tallied a shortie, and they got it by being very aggressive on a turnover play. But even when they were down two men they were still playing 120-yard soccer. I mean, they were called for offsides twice while down a man, and yet again while down two men, all three calls of which came on Knox's defensive side of the pitch. Sure, they limited the number of players that went forward on a possession, but there was no passivity or we-have-to-endure mentality at all on their part. There was absolutely none of the clear-it-as-far-as-you-can stuff from the Vikings in their back third. That was half of what was amazing about it all.

but more importantly it removes decision from the rest of the players.  For a team that is up a man, something happens where they lose their organization because psychologically they think they are a man up and think they have a lot more time and space to whatever they want.

Yep, definitely. And when you're thinking that, and yet you aren't even able to touch the ball for minutes at a time because your nine-player opponent is playing keepaway and is psychologically pantsing you, that's when the frustration kicks in.

[Kuiper]

For those looking to watch games today involving Western or Northern teams that could have national implications, UT Dallas at Christopher Newport might be worth a look.  CN is 4-1 and just beat #23 Covenant.  Their only blemish was to upstart Clarkson (speaking of which, I knew something positive was going on at Clarkson when I heard they were recruiting a top player in California - doesn't mean they'll get him, but it shows a certain ambition from their young staff that you often see when a program is making a move).  UT Dallas came on this Virginia trip off a big win over Trinity, but lost to Virginia Wesleyan in the first game.  This is a chance for them to make the trip a success and improve their chances at an NCAA bid if they don't win the automatic bid in the seemingly wide-open SCAC.

[PaulNewman]

OK, so I'm coming down the home stretch (and waiting to see 2-3 results from today's action) as I complete my initial 2022 D3 Fan Poll ballot...and curious to hear thoughts on paradigm philosophies especially when the season is still so very young.  Emphasis more on where you think a team falls in your heart of hearts even if they picked up a blemish or unexpected blemish, teams being undefeated even if against just above decent, decent, or less than decent competition, head to head, SoS, etc, etc?  Unblemished "mid-major" versus a national fave with an uneven start?  A 8-0 team that you don't consider a threat to make a deep run or even make the tournament versus a 2-2-3 heavyweight that you strongly believe will be very much in the mix at the end?

Here's a semi-hypothetical thought experiment....rank the following teams, listed alphabetically...

Amherst, Baldwin-Wallace, Christopher Newport, Clarkson, Cortland St, CWRU, Drew, GAC, F&M, Hamilton, John Carroll, Loras, Luther, Montclair St, MSOE, North Central, Otterbein, Redlands, Rose-Hulman, Rowan, RPI, St Thomas (TX), Trinity (TX), Tufts, UW-Eau Claire, Wesleyan, Western CT, Virginia Wesleyan...

Pick a top 10 or top 5 out of that group...

[EnmoreCat]

Associated with this, how do people view Massey Ratings?

[stlawus]

Massey can be a useful tool when you use it in combination with other things.  Probably shouldn't rely on it as a sole metric, but it has plenty of good uses.  It's pretty arbitrary the first month of the season as you see teams jump like 50 spots in one day, but once October rolls around I find to to be decently reliable. 

[Another Mom]

As much as some posters are saying Tufts and Conn aren't (yet) the teams they were last year, I have to say that Washington and Lee isn't either. Tied Emory 2-2 and neither team looked great.

[Ejay]

curious to hear thoughts on paradigm philosophies especially when the season is still so very young.  Emphasis more on where you think a team falls in your heart of hearts even if they picked up a blemish or unexpected blemish, teams being undefeated even if against just above decent, decent, or less than decent competition, head to head, SoS, etc, etc?  Unblemished "mid-major" versus a national fave with an uneven start?  A 8-0 team that you don't consider a threat to make a deep run or even make the tournament versus a 2-2-3 heavyweight that you strongly believe will be very much in the mix at the end?

My ballot will heavily recognize teams that are winning. For example, Conn College at 2-1-1 won't be a top 10 for me at this stage (only winning half their games).  Doesn't mean they're not one of the 10 best teams in the country (yet to be seen), but they're not getting a top 10 ranking from me yet. Also, teams that I've seen in person that may have a good record but simply didn't impress me will also not rank high (i.e. F&M). With that said, my week-to-week rankings swing wildly. I'm not afraid to drop a team significantly after a loss, or bump a team up that had a really good win.

[Maine Soccer Fan]

As much as some posters are saying Tufts and Conn aren't (yet) the teams they were last year, I have to say that Washington and Lee isn't either. Tied Emory 2-2 and neither team looked great.

I watched the Messiah and Washington & Lee game earlier this year in person and was left wondering, "Were Messiah that good or were W&L that poor?"

[PaulNewman]

Yeah, for me, I think you have to factor in level of competition to some degree.  Last year I chafed at Chicago maintaining a fairly high ranking with 5 losses but I later accepted the reasoning.  Also some of these top teams have been playing each other.  Like as much as I love the Eau Claire story I can't put them ahead of Conn or Tufts or maybe even Montclair, Rowan, Cortland, etc.  I wouldn't have dinged Conn much for the draw with Tufts but I will a bit for the home Bowdoin loss, and the latter may well keep Conn out of my top 10-12 and I'm guessing mid to late teens for the NESCAC group.

I will repeat that imo Messiah, North Park, and Chicago are the clear top 3 at the moment.  The next group for me like Calvin, Kenyon, W&L, Hopkins, Oneonta, along with the NESCAC group, to varying degrees have not looked great but I do think most will be there in the end.  I also will rate teams like Stevens and Pac Lutheran (assuming the Lutes handle Willamette today) highly, but I can't quite pull the trigger on bumping them up (yet) beyond the 8-12 range.

[Another Mom]

As much as some posters are saying Tufts and Conn aren't (yet) the teams they were last year, I have to say that Washington and Lee isn't either. Tied Emory 2-2 and neither team looked great.

I watched the Messiah and Washington & Lee game earlier this year in person and was left wondering, "Were Messiah that good or were W&L that poor?"

I would say Messiah was that good. But also W&L played their worst by far during that game. They looked to have regained last year's form against Oglethorpe a couple of days ago, but have backslid today.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Are the Massey Ratings website working? Mine won't load but maybe just a glitch. Will try later 

[SlideTackle]

Yeah, for me, I think you have to factor in level of competition to some degree.  Last year I chafed at Chicago maintaining a fairly high ranking with 5 losses but I later accepted the reasoning.  Also some of these top teams have been playing each other.  Like as much as I love the Eau Claire story I can't put them ahead of Conn or Tufts or maybe even Montclair, Rowan, Cortland, etc.  I wouldn't have dinged Conn much for the draw with Tufts but I will a bit for the home Bowdoin loss, and the latter may well keep Conn out of my top 10-12 and I'm guessing mid to late teens for the NESCAC group.

I will repeat that imo Messiah, North Park, and Chicago are the clear top 3 at the moment.  The next group for me like Calvin, Kenyon, W&L, Hopkins, Oneonta, along with the NESCAC group, to varying degrees have not looked great but I do think most will be there in the end.  I also will rate teams like Stevens and Pac Lutheran (assuming the Lutes handle Willamette today) highly, but I can't quite pull the trigger on bumping them up (yet) beyond the 8-12 range.

Respectfully, feels to me that NESCAC is not being given its due.  As some have mentioned, Conn brings back pretty much the same team from last year and by the looks of their roster filled up with a bunch of talent.  It's quite a rare occurrence for an out of conference team to get a W against a NESCAC team and come the tournament the NESCAC teams have dominated the last several years - three out of the four NESCAC teams that got invited made the final 8 last year.  Wesleyan just beat Brandeis 3-0 and Hamilton beat Ithaca College (not having a good year) 3-0.  To me it seems that NESCAC is just getting stronger with better talent, resulting in more parity. Something to consider is that several teams have very strong 5th year seniors in addition to the 4 recruiting classes that came after them.  More talent.  Same for other schools but that is my guess for why more parity this year, which is still fairly young. 

[PaulNewman]

Yeah, for me, I think you have to factor in level of competition to some degree.  Last year I chafed at Chicago maintaining a fairly high ranking with 5 losses but I later accepted the reasoning.  Also some of these top teams have been playing each other.  Like as much as I love the Eau Claire story I can't put them ahead of Conn or Tufts or maybe even Montclair, Rowan, Cortland, etc.  I wouldn't have dinged Conn much for the draw with Tufts but I will a bit for the home Bowdoin loss, and the latter may well keep Conn out of my top 10-12 and I'm guessing mid to late teens for the NESCAC group.

I will repeat that imo Messiah, North Park, and Chicago are the clear top 3 at the moment.  The next group for me like Calvin, Kenyon, W&L, Hopkins, Oneonta, along with the NESCAC group, to varying degrees have not looked great but I do think most will be there in the end.  I also will rate teams like Stevens and Pac Lutheran (assuming the Lutes handle Willamette today) highly, but I can't quite pull the trigger on bumping them up (yet) beyond the 8-12 range.

Respectfully, feels to me that NESCAC is not being given its due.  As some have mentioned, Conn brings back pretty much the same team from last year and by the looks of their roster filled up with a bunch of talent.  It's quite a rare occurrence for an out of conference team to get a W against a NESCAC team and come the tournament the NESCAC teams have dominated the last several years - three out of the four NESCAC teams that got invited made the final 8 last year.  Wesleyan just beat Brandeis 3-0 and Hamilton beat Ithaca College (not having a good year) 3-0.  To me it seems that NESCAC is just getting stronger with better talent, resulting in more parity. Something to consider is that several teams have very strong 5th year seniors in addition to the 4 recruiting classes that came after them.  More talent.  Same for other schools but that is my guess for why more parity this year, which is still fairly young.

Not sure where you're getting that from.  In general there is continual gushing over NESCAC.  You quoted me so don't know if you're suggesting I've been disrespectful.. At the outset of season I said four NESCACs should be in the top 10, and I just submitted my ballot for the fan poll last night and had SIX NESCACs in my top 19.  Probably could have added a 7th but that did seem over the top.

Addendum:  Btw, knowing that you are a Wesleyan supporter, out of the six NESCACs I ranked my highest ranking went to....Wesleyan.

[SlideTackle]

Yeah, for me, I think you have to factor in level of competition to some degree.  Last year I chafed at Chicago maintaining a fairly high ranking with 5 losses but I later accepted the reasoning.  Also some of these top teams have been playing each other.  Like as much as I love the Eau Claire story I can't put them ahead of Conn or Tufts or maybe even Montclair, Rowan, Cortland, etc.  I wouldn't have dinged Conn much for the draw with Tufts but I will a bit for the home Bowdoin loss, and the latter may well keep Conn out of my top 10-12 and I'm guessing mid to late teens for the NESCAC group.

I will repeat that imo Messiah, North Park, and Chicago are the clear top 3 at the moment.  The next group for me like Calvin, Kenyon, W&L, Hopkins, Oneonta, along with the NESCAC group, to varying degrees have not looked great but I do think most will be there in the end.  I also will rate teams like Stevens and Pac Lutheran (assuming the Lutes handle Willamette today) highly, but I can't quite pull the trigger on bumping them up (yet) beyond the 8-12 range.

Respectfully, feels to me that NESCAC is not being given its due.  As some have mentioned, Conn brings back pretty much the same team from last year and by the looks of their roster filled up with a bunch of talent.  It's quite a rare occurrence for an out of conference team to get a W against a NESCAC team and come the tournament the NESCAC teams have dominated the last several years - three out of the four NESCAC teams that got invited made the final 8 last year.  Wesleyan just beat Brandeis 3-0 and Hamilton beat Ithaca College (not having a good year) 3-0.  To me it seems that NESCAC is just getting stronger with better talent, resulting in more parity. Something to consider is that several teams have very strong 5th year seniors in addition to the 4 recruiting classes that came after them.  More talent.  Same for other schools but that is my guess for why more parity this year, which is still fairly young.

Not sure where you're getting that from.  In general there is continual gushing over NESCAC.  You quoted me so don't know if you're suggesting I've been disrespectful.. At the outset of season I said four NESCACs should be in the top 10, and I just submitted my ballot for the fan poll last night and had SIX NESCACs in my top 19.  Probably could have added a 7th but that did seem over the top.

Should not have quoted you.  Generally speaking that's the feeling I got over the past couple of years.  I'm guessing I'm still sore from last year's denial of a birth for Wesleyan, which obviously has nothing to do with you.