2022 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Tufts, Amherst and Conn College all look a little sluggish out of the gate. They have to be behind the top 5 or 10 at a minimum right? Has anyone watched them closely to give more perspective on the level compared to previous years or compared to others this year like Messiah, Chicago, etc?

There seems to be a drop from all 3 compared to the "norm" and standard we hold these programs to. Any thoughts to this? 

[camosfan]

My son plays at Tufts and I am glad they have already played both Conn College and Amherst, these teams are not going to go out without serious fight for the remainder of the season.

[EnmoreCat]

Tufts, Amherst and Conn College all look a little sluggish out of the gate. They have to be behind the top 5 or 10 at a minimum right? Has anyone watched them closely to give more perspective on the level compared to previous years or compared to others this year like Messiah, Chicago, etc?

There seems to be a drop from all 3 compared to the "norm" and standard we hold these programs to. Any thoughts to this?

Amherst, Tufts and Williams have each drawn three conference games this season, not exactly bad form, but of course, not quite as successful as Hamilton or Wesleyan.  This is my first year of properly watching NESCAC and it has typically felt pretty even to me most weeks.  I can really only speak about Amherst and even then, not with in depth knowledge other than to say that a pretty special forward graduated, along with some quality seniors.  All colleges find these gaps challenging to fill and of course, it's the second half of the season where we will start to get a better idea about which NESCAC teams are in fact the creamier ones rising to the top.  I am not sure if slow out of the gate is fair, the reality is that any one of those three teams could have turned those 3 draws into 3 wins and we would be probably(well perhaps through gritted teeth for the NESCAC haters) discussing that team in the same breathe as Messiah or Chicago.  I know the switch away from OT hasn't been well received, but I have respect for the teams that get their business done inside the 90 minutes.  Right now Massey ranks Messiah and Chicago at the top and has four NESCAC teams in the top 10, presumably reflecting strength of schedule results given the draws in some cases.  I can't tell you if that's truly fair, but I do know that Amherst beat what I thought was a pretty impressive Babson team (15 right now on Massey) and in terms of pure football, the Beavers played the most attractive that I saw on my travels.  Despite that, the Mammoths won 3-1, perhaps flattering by a goal, but an indication of what they can do when they put their minds to it.  I will be looking for more of that over the weeks ahead.



 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Thanks for the insight Camosfan and Enmorecat! I will have to watch some NESCAC games over the next couple of weeks and take a look. Obviously the "norm" I am referring to is winning national championships so I hope my ask was seen as a compliment rather than a knock 

On an other thread someone mentioned that Tufts entered NCAAs with a 9-5-2 record and mainly unranked throughout the season before winning the title back in 2016 (I think), so maybe I am jumping the gun based on records thus far!

[SierraFD3soccer]

On an other thread someone mentioned that Tufts entered NCAAs with a 9-5-2 record and mainly unranked throughout the season before winning the title back in 2016 (I think), so maybe I am jumping the gun based on records thus far!

Tournament time all bets are off. I am guessing that the team with the deepest experienced bench has an advantage especially since teams have to play back-to-back games on back-to-back weekends and the season is so incredibly compressed. Still stunned how NCAA soccer plays so many games with very, very little time between over a 2 month period.  So much science behind one game every 6 or 7 games. Instead they play one game every 3 or 4 days over most of the season.

So coaches which have subs play substantial time during the season may have an advantage with injuries of key players.

[Kuiper]

I guess all bets are off when rivals play, as Ohio Wesleyan ends Kenyon's 9 game winning streak to secure a 0-0 tie.

[PaulNewman]

I guess all bets are off when rivals play, as Ohio Wesleyan ends Kenyon's 9 game winning streak to secure a 0-0 tie.

Disappointed for sure but if you didn't know OWU's record most would think it was an OK result.  Tale of two halves, as OWU appeared to want it more in 1st half and had a couple of excellent chances and honestly should have scored on at least one.  They had another in the 2nd half that Jaggar just missed wide...the kind of ball he usually would bury.  Brown must have lit into the Owls as after OWU led shots 9-3 at the half, Kenyon dominated the 2nd and shots were 16-1, I think.  GK for OWU made a couple of fantastic saves.  I'm sure OWU desperately wanted the win but it is also was very important for them not to take another loss. They've got to be one of the best 3-4-3 teams in D3 history and I expect OWU to probably run the table and we'll likely see these two again at least once.  The Guerra kid is special.  Kenyon had a hard time dealing with him, but except for some odd, broken plays where OWU landed on an opening I thought the Kenyon CBs had a very good game.  Got got very chippy with players on both teams on the ground numerous times per usual.  Martinez clearly injured as he came out after 6 minutes and never returned and a few other Kenyon guys who would be playing also are out (but who doesn't have some injuries).  Kenyon maintains their string of not losing to OWU since that day in 2014 when I was devastated and in tears.  Away at Wabash is next and historically that has been a very difficult game for Kenyon. 

[PaulNewman]

I guess all bets are off when rivals play, as Ohio Wesleyan ends Kenyon's 9 game winning streak to secure a 0-0 tie.

And we're on upset alert with UWEC down 1-0 to Augsburg 58 min in...

I'm very surprised by the Wesleyan result. 

Conn Coll only gets by ECSU 1-0.

If the score up is right, did not see Union beating Plattsburgh 3-0.

[Kuiper]

I guess all bets are off when rivals play, as Ohio Wesleyan ends Kenyon's 9 game winning streak to secure a 0-0 tie.

And we're on upset alert with UWEC down 1-0 to Augsburg 58 min in...

I'm very surprised by the Wesleyan result. 

Conn Coll only gets by ECSU 1-0.

If the score up is right, did not see Union beating Plattsburgh 3-0.

Upset complete:  Augsburg beats University of Wisconsin Eau Claire 1-0

[SimpleCoach]

I guess all bets are off when rivals play, as Ohio Wesleyan ends Kenyon's 9 game winning streak to secure a 0-0 tie.

And we're on upset alert with UWEC down 1-0 to Augsburg 58 min in...

I'm very surprised by the Wesleyan result. 

Conn Coll only gets by ECSU 1-0.

If the score up is right, did not see Union beating Plattsburgh 3-0.

Upset complete:  Augsburg beats University of Wisconsin Eau Claire 1-0

Why is it that every time I try to make a bold statement in my Top 25.... this sort of thing happens?

[PaulNewman]

A little followup from last night.

I think Dr. Martin's post-game quote was right on the money for OWU-Kenyon...

"This was a good game against a good team," said Bishop head coach Jay Martin.  "(Defender) Charlie Riddle was our man of the match.  As they say in England, it was a game of two halves.  We were the better team in the first half, and they were the better team in the second half.  Overall, it was a pretty good result against a pretty good team."

Iirc from Martin's preseason interview with SC he was very confident that he had a very good team (and I presume he was saying that knowing that Hector G was not returning).  Anyway, similar to the current little NESCAC debate, it's fair to bet that OWU is really down this year and not very good and so by extension Kenyon must not be that good.  It's a fair bet but it's not a bet I'm going to make (at least the first part of that).  Doesn't mean I'm going to put OWU in my top 25 anytime soon, but I also am not gonna bet that there isn't a 65/35 chance OWU will find a way to make the tournament.  As for Kenyon I don't think any big questions got answered, but I am bouyed by the Owls changing gears against a good team desperate to win on their home field to dominate the 2nd half.  I'd be more worried if they had not shown the ability to flip the game.

I'm also not gonna overreact to last night's surprising results with Wesleyan losing to CG and Conn apparently really struggling with ECSU.  I read the recaps and these two games which happened simultaneously less than a half-mile from each other were played under nearly unplayable conditions...drenching rain and high winds.  Certainly Wesleyan has some questions to answer after losing 1-0 at home to Midd in a game CSO said the Midd GK stole and now this game.  And next is AT Amherst.  Conn next is AT Williams and AT Middlebury. 

Hopkins and SC, I truly hope you guys are right or on to something with NESCAC this year.  I saw the Kirby Smart clip and had the same reaction, but I did not conclude based on the weak performance vs Mizzou that Georgia "isn't who we thought they were."  It's an interesting argument that the NESCAC is down right after they've had an unprecedented EIGHT different teams in the top 25 so far (and that's not usual).  Sure, I dropped Conn and Tufts from my top 25 and I never had Williams in yet, but, Conn and Tufts at least don't care about at all whether they're ranked or not.  Their only worry is whether they can make the tournament.  There IS reason to worry because of out of their top eight teams, it is likely that 2-4 of them will not make the tournament.  It's one thing to legitimately endorse the possibility that NESCAC is down, but does that mean you're willing to bet today that at least two NESCAC teams won't make the Elite 8 and none will get to the Final 4?  I'm not going there if only to protect myself from the pain I'll feel when I see it happen (yet) again.

All that said, I am rooting hard for the victor this year to come from outside NESCAC...obviously I'm a Kenyon fan, but I would far rather Hopkins, W&L, Stevens, Chicago, GAC, and basically anyone other than a NESCAC or Messiah or Calvin lift the trophy.

[jknezek]

Here's the thing for me. Soccer is a chancy game. Because scoring is so low, losing close or tieing a weaker team is a common occurrence. A good team can reasonably expect it to happen once or twice a season. Sometimes it doesn't, but over a long season with short rest and lots of buses and D3 atmospheres, especially, it typically happens. So I don't much worry about it.

BUT I do count the blemishes. One or two? Sure. Three or four... not as dominant as I thought. 5 or 6? Something might be off. Now is this always the case? Of course not. Tufts in the past, Chicago just last year, and many more have great postseasons after blemish filled seasons for whatever reason. But when I'm trying to sort out the Top 10 or 25 teams in the country, winning is important. SoS is important too in context of that winning, but really, great teams tend to win. Good teams get caught out by whims of soccer more regularly.

With the NESCAC this year, its one of two things. Either you think they have 7 or 8 of the top 15 teams in the country, since they can't sort themselves out, or you think they have 2 or 3 of the Top 25, probably sitting between 5 and 15, and 5 or 6 more that are in the 25-50 range.

But in the end, none of it matters, thankfully. Since we have a post-season tournament to figure it out.

[PaulNewman]

@jknezek, I agree with all of that except for maybe your estimate scenarios, and I assume we're agreeing that who we might vote for in a poll 1-15 or 20 is not necessarily who would say in our heart of hearts are the best 15-20 teams.  For instance, I am voting in some teams in my poll vote that I would not pick head to head with some teams below them, but results (and blemishes) demand something different of a poll voter (I think) than an assessment of who, records aside, are the best or most formidable teams.  As for my estimate of the NESCACs, I'd probably say in the end there will be three (not sure which ones yet) in the top 15 or so and 5 within the top 25 and then another two to three in the top 35-40.

[maineman]

NESCAC and the UAA have a UAA-NESCAC challenge in basketball this year and presumably beyond.  It would be nice if this could be replicated in soccer moving forward.  Of course, basketball has semester/vacation breaks making it easier to fit in the travel to pull it off.

[Gregory Sager]

I guess all bets are off when rivals play, as Ohio Wesleyan ends Kenyon's 9 game winning streak to secure a 0-0 tie.

And we're on upset alert with UWEC down 1-0 to Augsburg 58 min in...

I'm very surprised by the Wesleyan result. 

Conn Coll only gets by ECSU 1-0.

If the score up is right, did not see Union beating Plattsburgh 3-0.

Upset complete:  Augsburg beats University of Wisconsin Eau Claire 1-0

Why is it that every time I try to make a bold statement in my Top 25.... this sort of thing happens?

I'm not the slightest bit surprised that UW-Eau Claire lost. The #235 SOS rating that the Blugolds have on Massey is no mirage. Having seen a bit of them in action, I knew that the Blugolds certainly play respectable soccer, but I also knew that sooner or later they'd run into a team good enough to expose them as pretenders. What surprises me is that they got exposed a game earlier than I thought would happen. I was sure it would be St. Olaf who would hang the first L on the Blugolds tomorrow night in Northfield. As it turns out, Augsburg -- another team with a gaudy record and an SOS rating well up in the 200s -- got to UWEC first.

Don't get me wrong, UWEC is a great story: second-year program; born into orphanhood because most WIAC schools won't field a men's soccer team for budget and/or Title IX reasons; located well off the beaten path as far as D3 men's soccer national interest is concerned -- and yet the Blugolds run out of the starting gate on an absolute tear and get all the way into October before they finally falter. But, honestly speaking, that's not really the pedigree of a Top 25 team. Thirty or even twenty years ago? Sure. But not in 2022.