2022 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[MessageBoardMessi]

Big upset in the ODAC -- Hampden-Sydney takes down Lynchburg 1-0.

I'm curious to see if this loss, paired with the late season loss to Guilford is enough to keep them from NCAA play.  I am sure that many on this board would be able to speak to the system better than I, but it would seem that this unceremonious end to the season doesn't bode well for Lynchburg......

[Ejay]

Big upset in the ODAC -- Hampden-Sydney takes down Lynchburg 1-0.

I'm curious to see if this loss, paired with the late season loss to Guilford is enough to keep them from NCAA play.  I am sure that many on this board would be able to speak to the system better than I, but it would seem that this unceremonious end to the season doesn't bode well for Lynchburg......

In 2018, Lynchburg was 12-1-2 entering the ODAC tournament. They beat Randolph in QF and then  peppered Bridgewater with 25 shots in the semifinal, but Bridgewater managed to score on a free kick (their only shot on goal), thus denying 13-2-2 Lynchburg a spot in the tournament.

[paclassic89]

I have Lynchburg 34th in RPI currently.  As conference playoffs continue and strong teams play strong teams (increasing SOS), they might drop further and could be on the bubble.  It all depends on how the AQs shake out

[Hopkins92]

FWIW, Lynchburg is 35 in Massey. He has their SoS as 82...

[PaulNewman]

Interesting game in Delaware, OH tonight, with scenarios that may help newer folks get more insight into the ranked wins talk.

Denison comes into the match at OWU in an almost identical fashion as last year....very solid season, pretty good SoS, but no ranked wins.  The Big Red can pick up a ranked win if they beat OWU (assuming OWU is ranked today which I presume they will be) and they can hope that Wilmington somehow gets ranked which is very doubtful.  Also not clear that Denison will still be in that last Region VII slot today.  Bottom line is Denison almost certainly needs to win the AQ, and so they need to repeat last year's monumental triumph of winning in Delaware and Gambier in back to back NCAC tourney matches.   To do that two years in a row would be phenomenal.   Of course there's also the mentor-pupil dynamic in this one tonight.

Imo OWU also very well may need the AQ.  Let's say they beat Denison and are 9-4-4.  The AQ would be in sight, and they already drew with Kenyon to give Kenyon its only blemish, but if they don't get the AQ I think they are in trouble.  Excellent SoS but 8-5-4 (if lose to Denison) with no ranked wins and two ranked draws (Kenyon and Loras if Loras is still ranked)  is not gonna get it done, and I doubt 9-5-4 (if beat Denison and lose final) will get it done although if Denison is still ranked today beating Denison again would give OWU two ranked wins that are not currently in their pocket.  That latter scenario might get them in the discussion but along with at least a handful of teams with similar or slightly better records, solid to strong SoS's, and more ranked wins even if OWU does pick up two.

Bottom line for tonight....must win for both teams.

[MNBob]

NCAA regional rankings have updated

Loras dropped out of Region IX but Whitewater moved in. That keeps UWEC 2-1 vs ranked.

[coach analytics]

Why doesn't the NESCAC conference get more teams in the NCAA tournament?

I think it is certainly well known regarding the NESCAC dominance of the recent NCAA tournament. Three straight National Championships with Tufts in 2018 and 2019 and Conn College in 2021.  However, peeling back the onion and you will see even more dominance.

Since 2018, the NESCAC record in the NCAA tournament is an astounding 37-8-6.  However if you dig even deeper, if you exclude the six games that the NESCAC teams played each other (2018 Tufts Amherst Sweet 16 game, the 2019 Regional Final game between Conn and Tufts, the 2021 Regional Final between Tufts and Conn, the 2021 Regional Final between Amherst and Middlebury and the 2021 National Championship between Amherst and Conn) the record in the last three years against non conference foes is 32-3-4 and all 3 of those losses were in 2018.  In the past two years, a NESCAC team has not lost a single game to a non conference foe. In 2019 Middlebury tied Renssalaer but did not advance on PKs.

However during this period of time, was the NESCAC adequately rewarded with NCAA bids?

If you look at two other "power" conferences which frequently get multiple bids, I would argue that they have not been adequately rewarded.  During these three years, the NESCAC has had a total of 14 bids or a three year average of 4.67 bids per year.  In a conference of 11 teams this represents 42% of its conference.

The Centennial conference, during that same span, had a total of 12 bids for a 3 year average of 4.0 or 40% of their 10 team conference.  For that great level of invites, the Centennial Conference produced a 8-10-5 record and lost all four of its head-to-head games against the NESCAC teams.

The UAA conference during this three-year span was awarded 11 bids for a 3 year average of 3.67.  In an 8 team conference, this represents 46% of their conference.  During this span they went a respectable 15-10-4, thanks to Chicago's impressive record of 8-3 and 7-7-4 record for the others. During this time, the UAA lost both of its head to head matches with NESCAC teams.

I am not sure I can come up with a good explanation for the success of the Centennial conference in attaining bids.  In 2021, when they received 5 bids (50% of their conference) they had a fair amount of parity in the top 5 so a fair amount of opportunity for regional wins as the teams swapped beating each other.

I do think that the UAA has a distinct advantage over the other power conferences in that they are spread across several regions allowing them the opportunity to get more regional teams ranked and improve their chances of "regional wins".  Their 8 teams are spread across 5 different regions giving them a much better opportunity for most, if not all, of their normal conference games to achieve regional wins.

[jknezek]

Without doing a really deep dive, I'd say one good reason is because Winning Percentage is a primary criteria. At some point, due to being in the bottom half of the conference, you have a winning percentage that is simply too low to consider.

You would have to look back at the presumed last team out of the NESCAC each year and look at the winning percentage. If it's below .6 I suspect it starts to get hard to stomach. Even playing in the hardest conference in the country, you still have to win. The extra ties this year will muddy the water a bit, but that's really my guess on why it's hard to get 50% or more of your conference into the tournament.

[PaulNewman]

Let's see what happens this year.  Last year most agreed they deserved five and they got four.

I think five is almost definite this year and I'm gonna predict six...which, keep in mind, is nearly a third of the entire number of Poll Cs available.  Add in 3-4 for UAA and 3-4 for Centennial and very few slots are left.

Coach, what your detailed analysis does not do is show the draws that especially the top 2-3 NESCACs get.  Often the first weekend is almost a joke, and often the Sweet 16 opponent is good but manageable (or doesn't strike fear in your heart).  A couple of those years Tufts could have floated to the Elite 8.

It will be interesting because there are at least a couple of regions where one could argue they shouldn't get more than one (and none if the right teams get their AQs)...and that's for the entire region and not just a single conference.

[4samuy]

Agreed , coach analytics, as far as the UAA having a distinct advantage for RVR,  I would agree they have an advantage against most regions, but since the regional realignments, let's be honest, IMHO,Region 1, in soccer, has been severely watered down. Take a look the current region 1 rankings,  although well deserved, you could also argue the Nescac has a similar advantage against most regions due to the fact that hey are playing a majority of their CONFERENCE games against regionally ranked opponents, giving them a built in ability for results vs ranked.

[PaulNewman]

Agreed , coach analytics, as far as the UAA having a distinct advantage for RVR,  I would agree they have an advantage against most regions, but since the regional realignments, let's be honest, IMHO,Region 1, in soccer, has been severely watered down. Take a look the current region 1 rankings,  although well deserved, you could also argue the Nescac has a similar advantage against most regions due to the fact that hey are playing a majority of their CONFERENCE games against regionally ranked opponents, giving them a built in ability for results vs ranked.

And Region 2 is even worse...they have only one truly deserving team in Babson and even Babson got smoked by Conn 3-0.  Babson would have been doubtful to finish top 6 in NESCAC.

[4samuy]

I agree with that. But IMO, if babson had still been in region 1 they would be on regionally ranked board and could have been ranked above a couple of the Nescac teams and essentially blocking them from getting up to the plate for certain round during the committee debates. I guess who knows, but with Babsons winning pct and 5 results vs ranked I would think that may have happened.

[PaulNewman]

I agree with that. But IMO, if babson had still been in region 1 they would be on regionally ranked board and could have been ranked above a couple of the Nescac teams and essentially blocking them from getting up to the plate for certain round during the committee debates. I guess who knows, but with Babsons winning pct and 5 results vs ranked I would think that may have happened.

Right, but my hypothetical was if Babson was in the NESCAC they wouldn't have their current record and easily could be in the W CT spot or off the board entirely.

[paclassic89]

Another issue with RvR is that the committee is just eyeballing the thing (and sometimes it's not even accurate data! as we found out in Region IV this week) and we know not every ranked match is equal.  You can rack up multiple ranked wins against teams in the 5-7 slot of regions and look better than a team who has tougher RvR opponents.  Yes, this could be reflected in SoS but sometimes it's not given various scheduling vagaries.  There is a hosting and logistical consideration that prevents a national ranking system but, in an ideal world, teams would be ranked nationally using an adjusted RPI that factors in win%, SoS, and has adjustment bonuses/penalties for results against higher ranked or lower ranked teams. 

[4samuy]

Totally agree. But let's agree hypothetically that there are myriad teams that are ranked that if playing  in "other conferences" would struggle.