2022 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

I had thought CWRU might land ahead of CMU.  It's very tight and probably doesn't matter as either way Saturday's clash between the two very likely is a play-in game.  I don't see both getting bids unless everything breaks perfectly and Kenyon and ONU or JCU win their AQs.  Wilmington is pretty good and Otterbein could definitely win the OAC tourney, and we know OWU or Denison are capable of pulling off the NCAC AQ.

[PaulNewman]

Totally agree. But let's agree hypothetically that there are myriad teams that are ranked that if playing  in "other conferences" would struggle. 

Yes, absolutely.

[blue_jays]

Let's see what happens this year.  Last year most agreed they deserved five and they got four.

Coach, what your detailed analysis does not do is show the draws that especially the top 2-3 NESCACs get.  Often the first weekend is almost a joke, and often the Sweet 16 opponent is good but manageable (or doesn't strike fear in your heart).  A couple of those years Tufts could have floated to the Elite 8.

This right here. No one's doubting the NESCAC quality and they deserve all their plaudits, but the eastern teams can fatten up against lesser competition due to the sheer number of schools in the area. The East Region in basketball (in the previous regional ranking system), for example, is a perennial joke.

[4samuy]

Paclassic89,

You bring up a critical point, but IMHO do not give the national committee enough credit.  IMO They really do drill down when it comes to selection time, and look at RVR and the strength of those results within each region.  As you appropriately stated, ranked results, and where those teams are ranked in their respective regions can and should be a factor especially as you get down to some of final pool c spots.  You would know more than me about region 4, but I would be surprised if the regional and national committees don't look at where in the regions does a teams RVRs come from.(top or bottom).

At this point in the year,  there are teams that are so close,that you almost have to look at where the RVRs are coming from, due to it being a primary criteria.

[Another Mom]

Washington and Lee,  hitting their stride at the right time, win 6-1 against Virginia Wesleyan.

[Hopkins92]

Washington and Lee,  hitting their stride at the right time, win 6-1 against Virginia Wesleyan.

This board ABSOLUTELY HAMMERED W&L last season because they had an incredible dip in performance and confidence in late October. They were just lost.

I don't have that vibe this year. They seem much less mercurial.

[PaulNewman]

Washington and Lee,  hitting their stride at the right time, win 6-1 against Virginia Wesleyan.

This board ABSOLUTELY HAMMERED W&L last season because they had an incredible dip in performance and confidence in late October. They were just lost.

I don't have that vibe this year. They seem much less mercurial.

I don't recall an incredible dip.  Also don't recall them getting hammered.  For games played through 10/31/21 they still were #1 in the country.  Then they had their one loss of the season until the Final Four in the ODAC tournament so maybe that is the dip...and they dropped all the way down to #3.  I certainly wouldn't say they were just lost.

[Hopkins92]

Washington and Lee,  hitting their stride at the right time, win 6-1 against Virginia Wesleyan.

This board ABSOLUTELY HAMMERED W&L last season because they had an incredible dip in performance and confidence in late October. They were just lost.

I don't have that vibe this year. They seem much less mercurial.

I don't recall an incredible dip.  Also don't recall them getting hammered.  For games played through 10/31/21 they still were #1 in the country.  Then they had their one loss of the season until the Final Four in the ODAC tournament so maybe that is the dip...and they dropped all the way down to #3.  I certainly wouldn't say they were just lost.

So, I did an incredibly nerdy thing today and went back and looked almost all of my posts from the last 2-3 years.

We absolutely were all over W&L because the just didn't look good at the end of season. Hammered them.  They lost to early in the ODAC tourney and looked pretty bad, and that was after a few not so great games leading up to that.

You are probably really on point that we over reacted, but this board basically said (correctly, IMO) that the team we fell in love with and deserved the #1 spot was in a weird place in late October. Obviously, they figured it out and made a great run.

I'd do the Mr. Sager multi-quote thing but I don't really feel like it.

[Another Mom]

I don't remember W&L getting hammered here, but I definitely remember them losing momentum, focus, whatever, and not playing well last year. It felt like that (loss of focus) most of this season, but the last 2 games it feels like the team has come together,  and is clicking.

[PaulNewman]

Yeah, I'm sure there was a big reaction to the loss to Randolph which seemed like a shock at the time, but again, they fell all the way from a remarkably consistent year in which they were basically #1 from week 2 through week 9, and immediately rebounded to make a run to Final Four.  I mean it's hard to have a major dip and be lost and enter the tournament as the favorite at 18-1-1 or whatever they were.  More important;y, in terms of present tense, I don't think any of know if they've had a dip and are out of it or what because they've played Guilford twice and VWU...the latter an impressive showing to be sure but not sure we know what it means in terms of where they're at.

[Kuiper]

For those curious about the Coast-to-Coast conference, the conference tournament starts today and the first game between UC Santa Cruz and University of Wisconsin-Whitewater is 0-0 with about 35 minutes left in the second half.  The conference is (presumably) the only one that seeds teams in their tournament exclusively based on Massey Rankings since the teams don't actually play conference games.  It's basically a tournament conference that allows teams without local conferences to get an automatic qualifier.

[Hopkins92]

Such a weird conference. A team from California facing off against a team from Wisconsin... In Salisbury, MD.

The Warthogs squaring off against the Banana Slugs... Fitting, I guess, that the mascots are also pretty random.

[jknezek]

I don't remember W&L getting hammered here, but I definitely remember them losing momentum, focus, whatever, and not playing well last year. It felt like that (loss of focus) most of this season, but the last 2 games it feels like the team has come together,  and is clicking.

Sometimes you need a kick in the rear. It's possible losing to Guilford was the kick they needed. Beating Guilford solidly in the ODAC first round didn't mean much, big revenge game against a fairly weak opponent, but Va Wes was having a solid season.

The Marlins are fifth in the Region VI standings this week, and with Lynchburg losing early (4th) a win over W&L would have given them some solid hope at a C as well as possibly an A. Plus it would have helped with the comparison with Sewanee (6th) as a common opponent. This game was huge for the Marlins.

Instead W&L stepped on their neck 3 minutes in and didn't let up, and since Va Wes had to chase at that point, it was very open for W&L to find those spaces and score.

Does this drastically change my opinion on W&L as a top 15 team in the country? Not really. But if W&L is back on the rise at the right time, the talent is there to do some damage to anyone's NCAA title hopes.

[PaulNewman]

For those curious about the Coast-to-Coast conference, the conference tournament starts today and the first game between UC Santa Cruz and University of Wisconsin-Whitewater is 0-0 with about 35 minutes left in the second half.  The conference is (presumably) the only one that seeds teams in their tournament exclusively based on Massey Rankings since the teams don't actually play conference games.  It's basically a tournament conference that allows teams without local conferences to get an automatic qualifier.

What I find interesting is that the NCAA repeatedly forces teams like Trinity (TX) to travel long distances to reduce travel costs (of flying three teams to Trinity or Pac NW) but approved this conference which has created a conference tournament semifinal set-up that we would be very unlikely to see in a NCAA tournament Sectional.  I'm sure this already has been discussed but not sure why CNU couldn't slot into the ODAC with UW-P going with other UWs and/or a conference more in their region..and same with Santa Cruz.

[Kuiper]

Such a weird conference. A team from California facing off against a team from Wisconsin... In Salisbury, MD.

The Warthogs squaring off against the Banana Slugs... Fitting, I guess, that the mascots are also pretty random.

Are there warthogs in Wisconsin?  I know there are banana slugs in Santa Cruz, but the mascot was definitely chosen as a parody of the fierce mascots used in other schools that (over) emphasize athletics.

Incidentally, the reason that has national interest (outside of the fact that the conference is literally national) is that if anyone other than Christopher Newport wins the tournament, then I'm guessing that will push someone out of a Pool C bid.