2022 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[Bucket]

I know the selection show. is tomorrow; but, I love looking this stuff up and trying to figure out who will be where.


Men's Conference Champions (AQ's) - Pool A - 43 Berths
AMCC       (T)   Mount Aloysius
ARC          (R)   Loras
ASC          (T)   Mary Hardin-Baylor
AEC           (T)   Marymount
Centennial   (T)   Muhlenberg
CUNYAC   (T)   Lehman
C2C           (T)   Mary Washington
CCIW        (R)   North Central (Ill.)
CCS           (R)   LaGrange
CSAC        (T)   Rosemont
CCC           (R)   Endicott - Region II
MAC-C   (T)   Messiah
Empire 8   (T)   Nazareth
Freedom   (T)   Stevens - Region IV
GNAC   (T)   St. Joseph (Conn.)
HCAC   (R)   Rose-Hulman
Landmark   (T)   Scranton
Liberty   (T)   St. Lawrence - Region III
LEC           (T)   Mass-Boston
MASCAC   (T)   Worcester State
MIAA           (R)   Calvin
MWC           (R)   Lake Forest
MIAC   (R)   Gustavus Adolphus
NEWMAC   (T)   Babson - Region II
NECC   (T)   New England College
NESCAC   (T)   Amherst  - Region I
NJAC           (T)   Rowan - Region IV
NAC           (T)   Husson
NCAC   (R)   Kenyon
NACC   (R)   Concordia (Wis.) / Aurora / MSOE
NWC           (R)   Willamette
OAC           (R)   Ohio Northern
ODAC   (T)   Washington and Lee
Presidents' (T)   Franciscan
Skyline   (T)   Merchant Marine
SAA           (T)   Birmingham-Southern
SCIAC   (R)   Chapman
SCAC   (T)   St. Thomas (Texas)
SLIAC   (R)   Webster
SUNYAC   (T)   Oneonta State - Region III
UEC           (R)   St. Mary's (Md.)
UAA           (R)   Chicago
UMAC   (R)   UW-Superior
USA South   (T)   Brevard

There were a lot of upsets in the conference tournaments.  I've pulled all the #1 seed teams that didn't win an AQ for their conference.

Who do we think will get a Pool C - 20 Berths

#19 Hopkins - 12-1-7
#12 Christopher Newport - 12-3-2
Loras - 10-6-2
#7 F&M - 12-2-4
Baruch - 10-6
LaGrange - 11-5-2
#23 Endicott - 12-5-4
St. John Fisher - 7-5-4
St. Joseph (Maine) - 13-5-1
Catholic - 11-3-4
#21 Western Connecticut - 20-0-2
Framingham State - 11-5-3
#5 Gustavus Adolphus - 14-1-4
Eastern Nazarene - 7-7-5
#8 Bowdoin - 11-1-4
#9 Montclair State - 15-2-4
#11 Ohio Northern - 13-3-3
Lynchburg - 11-2-5
Grove City - 12-5-1
Manhattanville - 9-5-4
Rhodes - 9-2-6
Webster 14-3-3
#14 Cortland State - 12-5-2
St. Mary's MD - 11-4-5

These aren't necessarily the ones I think will get a Pool C bid.  I'll post my guesses seperately

You left out Middlebury, which entered the weekend as 2nd in their region, behind Pool A Amherst. Bowdoin was behind them at 3. Followed by Tufts, Williams, Hamilton, and then Western Conn. Western Conn has no shot. They'd have to jump those teams in the regional rankings, and they won't do so by losing. Unless the NESCAC gets 5 Pool Cs to go with Amherst, bringing Western Conn to the table.

[paclassic89]

It was technically a tie for Western Connecticut but your point still stands

[stlawus]

Medaille also won the E8 not Naz.

[jdfranklin23]

Medaille also won the E8 not Naz.

This is what I get for being lazy and copying n pasting from other sources 

[PaulNewman]

Bucket, in all seriousness, did you really scan that list and the only thing you noticed was Middlebury missing?   Didn't notice North Park, Kenyon, Tufts, Case Western, NYU, etc missing OR wonder what Baruch, Eastern Naz, LaGrange, St John Fisher, Grove City, and Framingham St were doing in a list of Pool C candidates?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF Pool B & C Predictions

Pool B
1. UW-Eau Claire

Pool C
1. Kenyon
2. Hopkins
3. Gustavus Adolphus
4. CNU
5. Middlebury
6. ONU
7. Cortland
8. North Park
9. Montclair
10. Bowdoin
11. Case Western
12. Williams
13. NYU
14. Tufts
15. Lynchburg
16. UW-Platteville
17. F&M
18. Pacific Lutheran
19. CMU
20. Vassar

Sleepers (no order)
Hamilton
Western Conn
Endicott
Skidmore
Lycoming
Catholic
Drew
MSOE
Wartburg
Southwestern

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's Own Pool C Predictions


Locks to highly likely (alphabetical) = 13


BOWDOIN
CHRISTOPHER NEWPORT
CWRU
CORTLAND ST
F&M
GAC
JOHNS HOPKINS
KENYON
MIDDLEBURY
MONTCLAIR ST
NORTH PARK
NYU
OHIO NORTHERN


Moderate confidence = 4


CATHOLIC
PAC LUTHERAN
TUFTS
WILLIAMS


Best guess = 3


UW-PLATTEVILLE
LYNCHBURG
VASSAR


WILD CARD PICKS =3

BROCKPORT ST
CARNEGIE MELLON
WESTERN CONNECTICUT

[paclassic89]

Pool C RPI Rankings Top 35

Christopher Newport          .6379
Kenyon                             .6355
Gustavus Adolphus            .6337
New York University           .628
Franklin and Marshall         .6267
Middlebury                        .6248
Case Western Reserve        .6247
Ohio Northern                    .6227
Johns Hopkins                    .6208
Bowdoin                            .6192
Western Connecticut           .6167
Drew                                 .6117
North Park                         .6104
Carnegie Mellon                  .6075
Catholic                             .6066
Vassar                               .6063
Cortland State                    .6052
Lynchburg                          .6003
Montclair State                   .6001
Tufts                                  .599
Williams                             .5967
UW-Platteville                     .5964
Johnson and Wales              .5954
Hamilton                            .5954
Lycoming                           .5915
Pacific Lutheran                   .5882
Connecticut College             .5881
Virginia Wesleyan                .5867
Brockport State                   .5852
New Paltz State                   .5845
Skidmore                            .5816
MSOE                                 .5799
Otterbein                             .5796
WPI                                     .5785
Rochester                            .5772

Updated including games played today.  Winning % and SoS.  Another perspective on how the past week changed things.  Add in RvR on your own and obviously some names at the bottom of the list are not close to the bubble.

Interesting that Western Connecticut is hanging in there towards the top.  Drew still up there.   6 NESCACS in the top 30 by RPI

[Flying Weasel]

Bucket, in all seriousness, did you really scan that list and the only thing you noticed was Middlebury missing?   Didn't notice North Park, Kenyon, Tufts, Case Western, NYU, etc missing OR wonder what Baruch, Eastern Naz, LaGrange, St John Fisher, Grove City, and Framingham St were doing in a list of Pool C candidates?

jdfranklin23's list was of all the conference #1 seeds who didn't win their tournament and AQ, not a comprehensive list of Pool C candidates.  Probably not the most relevant list to be considering at this point, but he didn't say it was.

[Flying Weasel]

WILD CARD PICKS =3

BROCKPORT ST

Props for identifying Brockport State as an unranked team last week that could get to the table for a Pool C berth.  It will be interesting to see the final Region III rankings and see where the committee places them.  It'll be close between Vassar, Skidmore and Brockport.

Vassar              9-3-5 (.676)     .594 SOS     1-3-4 (.375) RvR
Skidmore          9-4-6 (.632)     .568 SOS     1-3-5 (.389) RvR
Brockport St     9-3-7 (.658)     .562 SOS     2-2-1 (.500) RvR

I originally thought Skidmore would be well positioned for selection, but I was forgetting two things that dent their resume.  (1) They only tied Vassar (adv. on PK's) in the Liberty semifinals.  (2) They lose a RvR win against Clarkson who dropped from the rankings from Week 2 to Week 3.  So instead of 2 or 3 RvR wins, they will have just 1.

Normally I would think that Vassar's 5 wins/ties vs. ranked and Skidmore's 6 wins/ties versus ranked and having played more ranked teams would edge Brockport's fewer games against raked teams and 3 wins/ties.  But not only will Brockport have 2 RvR wins compared to just one for Vassar and Skidmore, Brockport's two wins came against Region III leaders Oneonta and Cortland to go with their tie against Oneonta in the Liberty final.  Vassar's and Skidmore's RvR wins are against New Paltz and Hobart, respectively, which is much less impressive.  (Hobart probably isn't ranked this week to make room for Brockport, but the win against them will still count since they were ranked last week.)

I wouldn't be surprised to see two of these three teams selected, but three feels like too many.  With Vassar's significantly higher SOS and having been #3 in the region last week, I'm not sure Brockport can come from outside to overtake them, but I think you could make a case for it.  It's not often than a team outside the rankings has a legitimate shot to get selected, but I think you found a case in Brockport. 

And maybe we will see more cases like this now that they have capped the regional rankings at 7 teams. Of course, most regions were only having 7 or 8 teams ranked prior to the 7-team cap, so maybe not.  It's probably as much a question of whether (a) the level of inconsistency and/or parity we saw this year repeats and (b) does the increase in ties due no regular season OT leave teams more bunched than would have been the case otherwise.

[Flying Weasel]

Without doing any deep dive beside what I did above looking at Brockport's chances and mainly just trusting that the Regional Rankings do a good job foreshadowing the selections, here's my quick predictions/guesses.

POOL B - Wisconsin-Eau Claire (no other options, really, but still well deserved)

POOL C

REGION I
  1. Middlebury
  2. Bowdoin
  3. Tufts
  4. Williams
REGION II
  --
REGION III
  5. Cortland St.
  6. Vassar
REGION IV
  7. Montclair St.
  8. NYU
REGION V
  9. Johns Hopkins
  10. Franklin and Marshall
REGION VI
  11. Christopher Newport
REGION VII
  12. Kenyon
  13. Ohio Northern
  14. Case Western
  15. Carnegie Mellon
REGION VIII
  16. North Park
REGION IX
  17. Gustavus Adolphus
  18. UW-Platteville
REGION X
  --

final two Pool C berth options:
  Brockport  -  impressive wins over Oneonta and Cortland and tie with Oneonta
  Catholic - SOS is high among teams on the bubble, but no signature win or tie
  Lynchburg  -  depends on how much credit they're given for the two RvR ties being against Messiah and W&L
  Pacific Lutheran  -  depends on what grace the committee has for the difficulty of building a strong SOS on the west coast (and the X-factor of needing a team to round out a pod out west)
  Wartburg  -  the numbers put them on the bubble and since I think UW-Platteville is safely in, they will come to the table
  Skidmore - only if they stay ahead of Brockport in Region III

Not including Western Connecticut because I can't see what would have happened in the past week to move them ahead of Hamilton if the committee saw Hamilton as being ahead of them a week ago.

[PaulNewman]

FW, I'll meet you halfway on jdfranklin23 lol...

This is how the post started...

I know the selection show. is tomorrow; but, I love looking this stuff up and trying to figure out who will be where.

Then, immediately before the list you're talking about...

There were a lot of upsets in the conference tournaments.  I've pulled all the #1 seed teams that didn't win an AQ for their conference.

Who do we think will get a Pool C - 20 Berths[/b]

Then immediately after the list...

These aren't necessarily the ones I think will get a Pool C bid.  I'll post my guesses seperately

That is a lot of talking about and framing with selections coming and Pool C to not really be talking about selections and Pool C.  And then the minor issue that the list itself is inaccurate even if there if there is no intended relevance for Pool C.

[PaulNewman]

FW, curious to hear your thought process on CMU...

My question (or one of them) is whether the cmte will go that deep in Region VII...

That said, I would expect them to get to the table given who will be in front of them and taken, and I suppose by that time CMU's winning pct and SoS may stand out better and just having one ranked win won't keep them out because by that time few teams left on the board will have more than one ranked win or if they have two will fall very short compared to CMU on the other two measures.

There may be some hidden bias coming through based on a notion that CWRU and CMU were playing a play-in game on Saturday.

Lynchburg is tough...could definitely see them missing out again which would be brutal to have that kind of resume and be left off two years in a row.

On Western CT, if the cmte stares long enough at them, I could see sentiment to push them ahead of Hamilton.  Western CT, via a win and a draw, DID add a bit to their total record, while Hamilton of course was idle.  I don't think there is a high likelihood of this happening, but I think there is at least some daylight that the cmte could make that move if really wanted to.  As I noted elsewhere, Western CT might had have a very good chance if they were in Region II instead of I.

And I agree that Wartburg looks very, very similar to a few others so would not be surprised by them getting a bid although I wonder when the last time was that Region IX (old NORTH) got 3 Pool Cs.  Btw, for whatever reason, Wartburg didn't make paclassic's RPI list, so I don't know if that has not any relevance in terms of what that taps for that the cmte might actually consider.

[Flying Weasel]

I agree that the list of #1 seeds that didn't go on and capture their conference's AQ isn't particularly relevant for the Pool C selection discussion, as I stated in my post.  And I get that it was easy to take the list as being contenders for Pool C berth selection given the context.  And that's why I just wanted to point out what his list actually was, because people were responding to it as if it was something different from what he stated it to be.

As to the inaccuracy, besides the Empire 8 champion/AQ, what else was inaccurate?  And that was clearly a mistake on the part of D3soccer.com, not jdfranklin23, as it was cut-and-pasted from the website.

[PaulNewman]

I agree that the list of #1 seeds that didn't go on and capture their conference's AQ isn't particularly relevant for the Pool C selection discussion, as I stated in my post.  And I get that it was easy to take the list as being contenders for Pool C berth selection given the context.  And that's why I just wanted to point out what his list actually was, because people were responding to it as if it was something different from what he stated it to be. 

As to the inaccuracy, besides the Empire 8 champion/AQ, what else was inaccurate?  And that was clearly a mistake on the part of D3soccer.com, not jdfranklin23, as it was cut-and-pasted from the website.

Yeah, I don't know how one could conclude that he wasn't putting out a list of potential Pool C candidates when the list is wrapped around "let's dig in to what is gonna happen with Pool C."  So if that isn't intended as some kind of aid for determining Pool Cs what was the purpose of the whole post?  Pretty hard not to get confused when the immediate lead-in to the list is.... "Who do we think will get a Pool C -- 20 berths."

As for inaccuracy, I don't want to be hypocritical after my question to Bucket....

Back to above, I think partly what happened was confusion between conference champions and conference AQs.