2022 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[Flying Weasel]

FW, curious to hear your thought process on CMU...

My question (or one of them) is whether the cmte will go that deep in Region VII...

That said, I would expect them to get to the table given who will be in front of them and taken, and I suppose by that time CMU's winning pct and SoS may stand out better and just having one ranked win won't keep them out because by that time few teams left on the board will have more than one ranked win or if they have two will fall very short compared to CMU on the other two measures.

There may be some hidden bias coming through based on a notion that CWRU and CMU were playing a play-in game on Saturday.

Lynchburg is tough...could definitely see them missing out again which would be brutal to have that kind of resume and be left off two years in a row.

On Western CT, if the cmte stares long enough at them, I could see sentiment to push them ahead of Hamilton.  Western CT, via a win and a draw, DID add a bit to their total record, while Hamilton of course was idle.  I don't think there is a high likelihood of this happening, but I think there is at least some daylight that the cmte could make that move if really wanted to.  As I noted elsewhere, Western CT might had have a very good chance if they were in Region II instead of I.

And I agree that Wartburg looks very, very similar to a few others so would not be surprised by them getting a bid although I wonder when the last time was that Region IX (old NORTH) got 3 Pool Cs.  Btw, for whatever reason, Wartburg didn't make paclassic's RPI list, so I don't know if that has not any relevance in terms of what that taps for that the cmte might actually consider.

Swamped at work these days so this will be quick and not very thorough.

There is no criteria about how many teams from a region can/cannot be selected.  The manual is very clear on this and past history supports that: some regions have been shutout of Pool C berths and some regions have gotten a lot.  So CMU's chances are not affected at all, IMO, by how deep the committee would have to go before they come to the table.

Following the at-large selections over the years, I don't get the sense that there's much sentiment coming into play, nor that the order of teams change from Week 3 to Week 4 because the committee changes how they weigh the different criteria or what they factor in.  I'm not saying if I think Western Conn. should be selected or not, just that if they were selected it would bring into question how much the first three rankings truly foreshadow the selections as is their primary intent.  They were undefeated last week and still were behind Hamilton.  I can't see how the comparison of the two would have changed in the past week.

The RPI is not a criteria the committee is tasked to apply, and I do think the committee is pretty faithful to following the criteria.  So that won't hurt Wartburg.  I personally wouldn't take Wartburg and think them and Skidmore are the longest shots of the bubble teams I list.

[coach analytics]

Projected Pool C bids

Locks:  Montclair St, Kenyon, Johns Hopkins, Gustavus

Virtual Locks:  Middlebury, Bowdoin, North Park, Christopher Newport

Probable Locks:
Ohio Northern - solid across record, sos and rvr
PAC Lutheran - record, plus 2 reg wins
F&M - record, reg win over #1
Tufts - 2 reg wins over #1,#2
SUNY Courtland - 4 regional wins but not great quality

Comfortable side of Bubble (in Order)

Williams - sos and solid rvr record with 2 wins over #2 and #3
NYU - strong sos but rvr record is weak
Case Western - solid rvr record

Bubble is uncomfortable
Catholic -solid record and sos but rvr is weak
Lynchburg - good record, weak rvr
Drew (higher reg rank than Alvernia despite only 1 rvr)

Hamilton vs Carnegie Mellon - similar resumes with a lot of activity and 2 rvr wins bit overall a losing rvr record,  CM's record is better but Hamilton's quality wins are better...I go with UAA team over NESCAC for overall bid balance.

[PaulNewman]

FW, first, congrats on Post #1000.

Yeah, I know there isn't a limit and that's good for everyone to know because often folks get caught up in will the cmte go five or even six deep in the UAA or NESCAC...and get into thinking of your example of two out of three between Vassar, Skid, and Brockport but not all three.

RE Wartburg:  I know the RPI isn't relevant directly but I was asking if that instrument was picking up on something that would be relevant to the cmte.

We shall see about W CT....I've already said a change with Hamilton was unlikely, but if they were virtually tied the fact that W CT played two more games is a sliver of difference...and you have to stare at 20-0-2 versus 8-4-4 while knowing that W CT got a ranked win over another team (Vassar) that may well get a bid.

[stlawus]

I'll say it again, it does not feel right rewarding a team with a bid that won only a third of their games.  I get that other factors have to be considered, but what is the point of playing the games if winning them doesn't matter?   This isn't division 1 where every team has the resources to schedule games against whoever they want. 

[Saint_Dad]

A lot of predictions out there.  Are there any predictions about the 16 host teams?  Do you need lights to host?  Is SLU in the running?

[jknezek]

I'll leave the guesses about Pool C to people more knowledgeable than me, but I will say that in D3, I think it's ridiculous that a team that goes undefeated doesn't make the tournament. Especially a team with a regionally ranked win and an SoS over .500. Being eliminated from playing for the National title, without ever losing a game, is ridiculous. Especially in favor of teams with blemishes in half the games they played, who couldn't even make their own conference tournament, who finished the season 0-4-3. Hamilton's last win was over a month ago.

The NESCAC is brutal. I'm sure Hamilton is a very good team. I'm happy to see the program return to relevance. But deserve a bid to the NCAA tournament? Not with that resume.

And if you really want to get fiesty about it, take the common opponent. Hamilton beat Trinity (CT) 2-1, Western Conn 3-1.

The Region I committee was playing a game, assuming Western CT would get the AQ and they could try and get another NESCAC to the table with a slightly higher Regional Ranking. They need to fix that ranking and give Western CT the shot they earned. Western CT going 1-0-1 this week is a better week than Hamilton has had in a month. That's plenty of justification to move them up.

[Shooter McGavin]

Approaching this as if I am the committee and selecting the teams in order

Shooter's Pool C Picks
1. Hopkins
2. Kenyon
3. Gustavus
4. North Park
5. Newport
6. Midd
7. Montclair
8. Ohio Northern
9. Bowdoin
10. Cortland
11. Case Western
12. NYU
13. Williams
14. F&M
15. Lynchburg
16. UW-Platteville
17. Tufts
18. CMU
19. Vassar
20. Pacific Lutheran

First 4 Out
Catholic
Skidmore
Hamilton
Lycoming

[futbolfan]

Not sure how Vassar gets in over W Conn.  And how much does SoS get factored in - Hamilton beats Lynchburg and UW Platteville on that metric. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Projected Pool C bids

Locks:  Montclair St, Kenyon, Johns Hopkins, Gustavus

Virtual Locks:  Middlebury, Bowdoin, North Park, Christopher Newport

Probable Locks:
Ohio Northern - solid across record, sos and rvr
PAC Lutheran - record, plus 2 reg wins
F&M - record, reg win over #1
Tufts - 2 reg wins over #1,#2
SUNY Courtland - 4 regional wins but not great quality

Comfortable side of Bubble (in Order)

Williams - sos and solid rvr record with 2 wins over #2 and #3
NYU - strong sos but rvr record is weak
Case Western - solid rvr record

Bubble is uncomfortable
Catholic -solid record and sos but rvr is weak
Lynchburg - good record, weak rvr
Drew (higher reg rank than Alvernia despite only 1 rvr)

Hamilton vs Carnegie Mellon - similar resumes with a lot of activity and 2 rvr wins bit overall a losing rvr record,  CM's record is better but Hamilton's quality wins are better...I go with UAA team over NESCAC for overall bid balance.

Can't see Catholic AND Drew both getting in. I honestly think both will miss out altogether.

Lynchburg should have no issue making it so I'd move them to probable rather than uncomfortable.

Pacific Lutheran I'd consider a bubble team based on their SOS but agree they are most likely in unless geography plays a negative factor for them.

[PaulNewman]

I'll leave the guesses about Pool C to people more knowledgeable than me, but I will say that in D3, I think it's ridiculous that a team that goes undefeated doesn't make the tournament. Especially a team with a regionally ranked win and an SoS over .500. Being eliminated from playing for the National title, without ever losing a game, is ridiculous. Especially in favor of teams with blemishes in half the games they played, who couldn't even make their own conference tournament, who finished the season 0-4-3. Hamilton's last win was over a month ago.

The NESCAC is brutal. I'm sure Hamilton is a very good team. I'm happy to see the program return to relevance. But deserve a bid to the NCAA tournament? Not with that resume.

And if you really want to get fiesty about it, take the common opponent. Hamilton beat Trinity (CT) 2-1, Western Conn 3-1.

The Region I committee was playing a game, assuming Western CT would get the AQ and they could try and get another NESCAC to the table with a slightly higher Regional Ranking. They need to fix that ranking and give Western CT the shot they earned. Western CT going 1-0-1 this week is a better week than Hamilton has had in a month. That's plenty of justification to move them up.

The W&L guy and the Davidson guy finally agree on something!

[PaulNewman]

I'll say it again, it does not feel right rewarding a team with a bid that won only a third of their games.  I get that other factors have to be considered, but what is the point of playing the games if winning them doesn't matter?   This isn't division 1 where every team has the resources to schedule games against whoever they want.

It all depends on how the NCAA and cmte views draws....which is the huge wild card that no one here has attempted a guess at.  Remember also that in addition to ranked wins the cmte also considers total number of ranked games.

[coach analytics]

I'll leave the guesses about Pool C to people more knowledgeable than me, but I will say that in D3, I think it's ridiculous that a team that goes undefeated doesn't make the tournament. Especially a team with a regionally ranked win and an SoS over .500. Being eliminated from playing for the National title, without ever losing a game, is ridiculous. Especially in favor of teams with blemishes in half the games they played, who couldn't even make their own conference tournament, who finished the season 0-4-3. Hamilton's last win was over a month ago.

The NESCAC is brutal. I'm sure Hamilton is a very good team. I'm happy to see the program return to relevance. But deserve a bid to the NCAA tournament? Not with that resume.

And if you really want to get fiesty about it, take the common opponent. Hamilton beat Trinity (CT) 2-1, Western Conn 3-1.

The Region I committee was playing a game, assuming Western CT would get the AQ and they could try and get another NESCAC to the table with a slightly higher Regional Ranking. They need to fix that ranking and give Western CT the shot they earned. Western CT going 1-0-1 this week is a better week than Hamilton has had in a month. That's plenty of justification to move them up.

Those are excellent points.  The West Conn AD should take some criticism for such a poor out of conference schedule when there are tons of good teams in the area.

[PaulNewman]

What a wonderful villain/heartbreaker UMass-Boston is...

2016 vs very high seed Haverford AT Haverford the Beacons have at least two (and maybe three) men sent off in 2nd half with a ton of time left, and one of the red card incidents iirc included a question of whether there would be a criminal charge.  UMass-Boston somehow, somehow held on to get to PKs for over 40 minutes and knocked the Fords out of the tournament.  Totally changed the venue for the sectional which incredibly conveniently fell to Tufts (and the rest is history).  Tufts not only got UMass-Boston at home instead of going to PA, but also got a depleted UMass-Boston with at least two starters missing including their star striker.  Not saying Tufts wouldn't have beaten Haverford at Haverford but the latter was very, very good.

Now in 2022, the Beacons get to PKs again on the home field of W CT and probably knock out a 20-0-2 from the tournament.

[Maine Soccer Fan]

I'll leave the guesses about Pool C to people more knowledgeable than me, but I will say that in D3, I think it's ridiculous that a team that goes undefeated doesn't make the tournament. Especially a team with a regionally ranked win and an SoS over .500. Being eliminated from playing for the National title, without ever losing a game, is ridiculous. Especially in favor of teams with blemishes in half the games they played, who couldn't even make their own conference tournament, who finished the season 0-4-3. Hamilton's last win was over a month ago.

The NESCAC is brutal. I'm sure Hamilton is a very good team. I'm happy to see the program return to relevance. But deserve a bid to the NCAA tournament? Not with that resume.

And if you really want to get fiesty about it, take the common opponent. Hamilton beat Trinity (CT) 2-1, Western Conn 3-1.

The Region I committee was playing a game, assuming Western CT would get the AQ and they could try and get another NESCAC to the table with a slightly higher Regional Ranking. They need to fix that ranking and give Western CT the shot they earned. Western CT going 1-0-1 this week is a better week than Hamilton has had in a month. That's plenty of justification to move them up.

Those are excellent points.  The West Conn AD should take some criticism for such a poor out of conference schedule when there are tons of good teams in the area.

I think it's the coach, through the AD, who lines up out of conference games.

[futbolfan]

Seems like the weighting for wins should increase in the tie-happy-no-OT world we are in now. Leagues count 3 points for a win, perhaps they should count as at least 2.5 in w/l % calculations by ncaa rankings committees.