Pool C 2022

[smedindy]

I really do think that the Bethel / St. John's loser will get in. #3 and #9 is SOS is hard to get around, even with 2 losses.

Wheaton's SOS will take a bit of a dive with North Park. Same with John Carroll and Otterbein.
King's will be strong since they end with Wilkes
I can't see them leaving HSU on the table, nor JHU.


The C bubble people should hope:

Mt. Union beats B-W
Platteville beats LaCrosse
Wilkes upsets King's
Albion beats Alma
SJF upsets Utica

A Mt. Union loss makes it a three-way tie at the top of the OAC. From what I heard, that means the other 7 OAC coaches vote on the auto bid. You know they'd love to get 2 schools in the tourney so they'd probably vote for JCU or B-W.

An LaCrosse loss gives them two losses and and they'll be firmly behind the St. John's / Bethel loser in the West pecking order.

Wilkes probably has a sour taste from their 28-0 loss to Stevenson, and it's for the pride of Wilkes-Barre, so this may be one to watch

Alma beating Albion, puts Albion on the board first in region 4 IF Mt. Union wins. The committe may elevate MSJ over Albion but I can't see them moving a two loss team ahead of them with Albion's SOS

Now the SJF / Utica upset may be on a limb, as it were, but SJF played Morrisville tough and it's a home game.

But that would clear out Utica from "C".

Right now the six on the board first would be:

King's
JHU
HSU
Alma / Albion / JCU (JCU may pip Alma if Alma loses...)
Wheaton
Bethel / St. Johns

Next up for each region:

Stevenson
Utica
Bridgewater
Alma / JCU
Ripon
UW - LaCrosse (assuming a UWW win and a UW-LAX win, UWW gets the tie)

If things go accoring to plan I think it's probably

Bethel / St. John's
JHU
HSU
UW - LAX
...

The last spot? Kings vs. Utica vs. Wheaton - if Albion loses they're probably in before those three. Maybe. Then if Mt. Union loses...who does that knock out.

Good luck.
.

[desertcat1]

Nice job. 

[bluestreak66]

nothing against Alma, but I don't want Albion to just beat them. I want them to blow them out. Leave that as the last impression, and hopefully John Carroll can be the first team on the board for region 4. I still feel like their chances would be slim, but maybe the longer a team is in discussion the better they begin to look.
I'll be monitoring all those games for sure

[Ralph Turner]

As nebulous as Results against Ranked Opponents seems to be this year,

I have a hard time keeping 2-loss Wheaton, having narrow losses to two #1 teams in respective regions, from getting a bid.

[HOPEful]

nothing against Alma, but I don't want Albion to just beat them. I want them to blow them out. Leave that as the last impression, and hopefully John Carroll can be the first team on the board for region 4. I still feel like their chances would be slim, but maybe the longer a team is in discussion the better they begin to look.
I'll be monitoring all those games for sure

As a fan of the MIAA, I can fully empathize with this sentiment. Over in the Region 4 Fan Poll, I was the lone voter this week to vote JCU as the number 2 team in the region. After watching both Albion and Alma, I believe both would lose to JCU on a neutral field, although I think Albion v. JCU would be a good game. I also expect Alma to get crushed this weekend by Albion.

If Albion beats Alma, I can't comprehend putting Alma in the playoffs with a non-conference schedule of ONU, Manchester, Anderson, and Martin Luther. I feel strongly that there are at least 5 teams in the WIAC that given Alma's schedule would be 9-0 right now. When only 5 at large teams make the field, IMO there has to be more emphasis on prioritizing strength of schedule and making sure the metrics we use to do so are robust. I don't understand how anyone could compare Alma to Wheaton and conclude that Alma is the better team unless they are emphasizing 1 loss > 2 losses and disregarding who those losses and wins were against.

In the case of JCU, I feel like wins against Baldwin Wallace and Heidelberg should trump Alma's wins against Hope and Trine.

[smedindy]

nothing against Alma, but I don't want Albion to just beat them. I want them to blow them out. Leave that as the last impression, and hopefully John Carroll can be the first team on the board for region 4. I still feel like their chances would be slim, but maybe the longer a team is in discussion the better they begin to look.
I'll be monitoring all those games for sure

As a fan of the MIAA, I can fully empathize with this sentiment. Over in the Region 4 Fan Poll, I was the lone voter this week to vote JCU as the number 2 team in the region. After watching both Albion and Alma, I believe both would lose to JCU on a neutral field, although I think Albion v. JCU would be a good game. I also expect Alma to get crushed this weekend by Albion.

If Albion beats Alma, I can't comprehend putting Alma in the playoffs with a non-conference schedule of ONU, Manchester, Anderson, and Martin Luther. I feel strongly that there are at least 5 teams in the WIAC that given Alma's schedule would be 9-0 right now. When only 5 at large teams make the field, IMO there has to be more emphasis on prioritizing strength of schedule and making sure the metrics we use to do so are robust. I don't understand how anyone could compare Alma to Wheaton and conclude that Alma is the better team unless they are emphasizing 1 loss > 2 losses and disregarding who those losses and wins were against.

In the case of JCU, I feel like wins against Baldwin Wallace and Heidelberg should trump Alma's wins against Hope and Trine.

Their SOS isn't good, given, but they'll be on the board, maybe from the jump.

[USee]

The profiles for the potential at large teams (with projected records and SOS post Sat¹) are:


UWLX (Region 6 #5) 9-1 (1-1).552 (Loss V Region 6 #4, presumed win over Region 6 #6)
Bethel (Region 6 #2)8-2 (1-2).618 (Win vs Region 6 #2, Loss @ Region 6 #6)
St. Johns (Region 6 #3) 8-2 (1-2) .642 (Win vs Region 6 #4, Loss @ Region 6 #2, Presumed loss vs Region 6 #2)
Wheaton (Region 5 #3) 8-2 (1-2) .550 (Loss @ Region 3 #1, @ Region 5#1, Win over Region 5 #7)
King's (Region 1 #2) 9-1(1-1) .519 (win vs Region 1 #4, Loss vs Region 1 #1)
Albion (Region 4 #2) 9-1 (0-1) .563 (Presumed loss @ Region 4 #3)
JHU (Region 2 #5) 9-1 (0-1) .507 (Loss @ Region 2 #2)
Utica (Region 2 #6) 9-1 (0-1) .532 (Loss vs Region 2 #1)
HSU Region 3 #5) 8-1 (1-1) .488 (win at Region 6 #6, Loss to Region 3 #3)
Alma (Region 4 #3) 9-1  (0-1) .503 (presumed loss to Region 4 #2)
John Carroll (Region 4 #6) 8-2 (1-1) .564 (Loss @ Region 4 #1, Win vs Region 4 #7)

Obviously the St Johns/Bethel and Albion/Alma options are either/or. Also,  the St Johns/Bethel loser  is blocking UWL. Whether the loser is dropped behind UWL or stays ahead, one is blocking the other until their selection. Same for JCU relative to Alma/Albion.

¹ source Logan Hansen https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FqYgbc2ZAbF3m0sdzwLg6T6bjCF2AF7LoLBYnLiJqek/edit#gid=107744651

[D3fanboy]

nothing against Alma, but I don't want Albion to just beat them. I want them to blow them out. Leave that as the last impression, and hopefully John Carroll can be the first team on the board for region 4. I still feel like their chances would be slim, but maybe the longer a team is in discussion the better they begin to look.
I'll be monitoring all those games for sure

As a fan of the MIAA, I can fully empathize with this sentiment. Over in the Region 4 Fan Poll, I was the lone voter this week to vote JCU as the number 2 team in the region. After watching both Albion and Alma, I believe both would lose to JCU on a neutral field, although I think Albion v. JCU would be a good game. I also expect Alma to get crushed this weekend by Albion.

If Albion beats Alma, I can't comprehend putting Alma in the playoffs with a non-conference schedule of ONU, Manchester, Anderson, and Martin Luther. I feel strongly that there are at least 5 teams in the WIAC that given Alma's schedule would be 9-0 right now. When only 5 at large teams make the field, IMO there has to be more emphasis on prioritizing strength of schedule and making sure the metrics we use to do so are robust. I don't understand how anyone could compare Alma to Wheaton and conclude that Alma is the better team unless they are emphasizing 1 loss > 2 losses and disregarding who those losses and wins were against.

In the case of JCU, I feel like wins against Baldwin Wallace and Heidelberg should trump Alma's wins against Hope and Trine.

JCU has a snowball's chance.  But let's assume Mount beats BW (of course), MSJ beats RHU and Albion beats Alma.  R4 would likely break down 1) Mount 2) Albion 3) MSJ as the top AQ's.  JCU likely slides in as the top Pool C R4 team.  The Depauw/Wabash winner will be the 5th team.  Now spots 6 and 7 are interesting.  Does Alma stick around at 9-1 with no RRO and a poor SOS? or do they keep BW in at 7-3 with "good losses"?  Berg slide in at 7-3 with a better common opponent win over Adrian than Alma?  The Alma 3 point win over ONU looks pretty weak compared to JCU +17 and Berg +34.  I'm definitely having a hard time splitting up Alma/BW/Berg in to just 2 spots, Region 4 should probably just let them have a 3 way tie for 6th.   Eight teams per region is no big deal

1. Mount
2. Albion
3. MSJ
4. Depauw/Wabash
5. JCU
6. Alma
6. BW
6. Berg

JCU has an uphill battle for sure, but I can see how the OAC gets a couple of regionally ranked teams which would help out the Streaks

[Inkblot]

Is there any precedent for a Pool C bid going to a team with a loss to a non-playoff team?

[Captainred81]

I got it like this...
A) St. Johns beats Bethel B) LAX beats UWP C) Albion beats Alma D) RH beast MSJ E) All the rest of the favorites win

First Round pool C
R1:  Kings
R2: Johns Hopkins
R3: Hardin Simmons ( I don't see them dropping in R3 even if UWP drops out of the RR)
R4: John Carroll ( I fully support the though of the loser of Alma/Albion dropping below JCU)
R5: Wheaton (Even if Wash U falls off)
R6:  LAX

I think LAX gets chosen

Round 2 Pool
R1:  Kings
R2: Johns Hopkins
R3: Hardin Simmons 
R4: John Carroll
R5: Wheaton
R6:  Bethel

Bethel gets chosen

Round 3 Pool
R1:  Kings
R2: Johns Hopkins
R3: Hardin Simmons 
R4: John Carroll
R5: Wheaton
R6: Unranked Pool C candidate?

Wheaton gets chosen

Round 4 Pool
R1:  Kings
R2: Johns Hopkins
R3: Hardin Simmons 
R4: John Carroll
R5: Monmouth (This doesn't matter, they're not getting picked 
R6:  Unranked Pool C ? 

Johns Hopkins get chosen

Round 5 Pool
R1:  Kings
R2: Utica
R3: Hardin Simmons 
R4: John Carroll
R5: Doesn't matter
R6:  Doesn't matter

Hardin Simmons get chosen.  (Despite a lower SOS, same record, and only loss to Conf champ, UMHB drags them in on their coattails)

Pool C field LAX , Bethel, Wheaton, Johns Hopkins, Hardin Simmons

[USee]

So it's clear, I confirmed with Wally that anyone who is ranked this week OR after this Saturday will count as an RRO result. So LAX, Wheaton, etc all will have RRO results regardless of Saturday's games and even if WashU, UWP, etc fall out of the rankings. It's an important nuance that increases the number of RRO results and has, apparently, been in play since before last season.

[D3fanboy]

So it's clear, I confirmed with Wally that anyone who is ranked this week OR after this Saturday will count as an RRO result. So LAX, Wheaton, etc all will have RRO results regardless of Saturday's games and even if WashU, UWP, etc fall out of the rankings. It's an important nuance that increases the number of RRO results and has, apparently, been in play since before last season.

Trinity gets an extra RRO for their hopes of being the #1 seed in the West island

[USee]

From the Championship Manual, here are the primary criteria for selection of Pool C:

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed
will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
-Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
-Division III head-to-head competition;
-Results versus common Division III opponents;
-Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference
postseason contests are included;
-Division III strength of schedule.
-Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the
season is applicable (i.e., end-of-season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval of the
Championships Committee

I find it noteworthy that few people are mentioning the final bullet, end of season performance. The St Johns/Bethel loser will have a season ending loss, JCU will have a loss in the next to last week. Alma/Albion loser will have a loss in the last week. Not sure what it means, but it's listed as a primary criteria.

[Inkblot]

From the Championship Manual, here are the primary criteria for selection of Pool C:

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed
will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
-Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
-Division III head-to-head competition;
-Results versus common Division III opponents;
-Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference
postseason contests are included;
-Division III strength of schedule.
-Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the
season is applicable (i.e., end-of-season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval of the
Championships Committee

I find it noteworthy that few people are mentioning the final bullet, end of season performance. The St Johns/Bethel loser will have a season ending loss, JCU will have a loss in the next to last week. Alma/Albion loser will have a loss in the last week. Not sure what it means, but it's listed as a primary criteria.

That language is taken verbatim from the Division III manual, and I don't know that I'd say it means football has decided to adopt it. I checked other fall sports and men's and women's soccer have the exact language while volleyball and field hockey list "won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the season" as a criterion. Make of that what you will.

[Ralph Turner]

Twenty-five percent of a 10-game season is not the same as 25% of a 28-game basketball season with the loss in the conference tourney finals or a 43-47 game baseball season.