Pool C 2022

[Ralph Turner]

I know this is early to be starting the Pool C board, but ...

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2022/08/conference-teams-will-not-have-to-play-in-first-round

Conference teams playing in the 1st round.

Of course, it is much harder for that to happen with only 5 Pool C bids.

For contemplation (and we have some great non-conference games this season)

Must the loser of these games win their conference to earn a bid?

UMHB Muhlenburg
UMHB Whitewater
UWW St John's
UWW Berry
Trinity Wheaton IL
North Central Wabash

Any 2-loss WIAC team?

Others that I have not listed, after a quick run of the top half of the Top 25...

[Pat Coleman]

Same number of Pool C bids we've had since starting in 2017.

[Ralph Turner]

My bad.
I thought we had 6 in the more recent past.

[BSCpanthers]

I would say any OOC game losses eliminates you from going to the playoffs without winning your conference.  It's so slim in Group C that there are teams that are 9-1 with their only loss being to a 10-0 conference team.  Also add that is you lose an OOC game and don't win your conference, that means you have 2 losses, at least.  So no, that doesn't get you in as a Group C. 

[tf37]

I know this is early to be starting the Pool C board, but ...

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2022/08/conference-teams-will-not-have-to-play-in-first-round

Conference teams playing in the 1st round.

Of course, it is much harder for that to happen with only 5 Pool C bids.

For contemplation (and we have some great non-conference games this season)

Must the loser of these games win their conference to earn a bid?

UMHB Muhlenburg
UMHB Whitewater
UWW St John's
UWW Berry
Trinity Wheaton IL
North Central Wabash

Any 2-loss WIAC team?

Others that I have not listed, after a quick run of the top half of the Top 25...

If UWW, splits with UMHB and St. John's, and both those team won their conference / remaining games, UWW could get in at 8-2, given their RRO would be 1-2 at worst, maybe 3-2, and SOS would be through the roof. 

[Ralph Turner]

Starting the Pool C bubble.

It will hard to get a Pool C bid with 2 losses, but I think we can start the weekly count down.

(D3 top 25 ranking has no bearing on Pool C selection criteria)

Muhlenberg lost to UMHB. Must win the Centennial
UMHB lost to UWW. Must win the ASC.
UWW lost to St Johns. Must win the WIAC.
Wheaton IL lost to Trinity TX. Must win the CCIW
Bethel lost to UW-Platteville. Must win the MIAC.
RPI lost to Carnegie-Mellon. Must win the Liberty League.
UW-River Falls lost to St Johns. Must win the WIAC.
Salisbury lost to Stevenson. Must win the NJAC.

IMHO, St Johns has the inside track to hosting a semi-final.

[Ron Boerger]

One more, Ralph:  Birmingham-Southern lost to Huntingdon.  Must win the SAA.

[IC798891]

Are we really sure about this?

Did IC's season last year really close the door on the 2-loss Pool C?

[Ralph Turner]

Are we really sure about this?

Did IC's season last year really close the door on the 2-loss Pool C?

Thank you for the comment.
Every season is different. This year, we have had incredible non-conference games among Top 25 programs from Power Conferences.

Look at the strong teams from Power Conferences who have losses, as listed above.
(E.g., consider WIAC, ASC, MIAC, CCIW. Even the Centennial is no slouch of a conference. It appears that the OAC had no surprises in the first two weeks.)

Let's go to Selection Saturday night as the committee tries to fill 5 Pool C bids and look at the Regional Rankings.

I can imagine the committee looking at 2-loss UMHB on the table from Region 3, followed by 2-loss BSC. Are they behind a 1-loss ODAC team?
In Region 6, imagine we have 2-loss Bethel and 2-loss UWW. Might they be behind a 1-loss NWC runner-up? GFU might go 9-1/6-1. There are 4 WIAC's in the Top 17.
In Region 5, we have 2-loss Wheaton. Are they behind a 1-loss ARC team in the final Regional Rankings?
In Region 2, if RPI wins the LL, does an Ithaca College with losses to RPI and Cortland in the Cortaca Jug game get in? A 2-loss Muhlenberg will get a bid boost from the UMHB in the OWP?
In Region 1, is some 1-loss team from the MAC, NEWMAC, etc., passed over for 5 rounds as the committee picks up a 2-loss team from another region?
Region 4. This may be straightforward. The 1-loss runner up from the OAC probably gets in. Baldwin-Wallace has a loss to Mt St Joseph. I think that Heidelberg is in good shape if they go 9-1. There goes a bid. What about 1-loss runners-up from the other conferences?

[IC798891]

Here's sort of my big-picture question (It's entirely too soon to go through scenarios for me):

What happens to the solid, if unspectacular OOC games if the teams feel that precedent has essentially become: run the table in OOC if you want a Pool C?

The UMHB and UWW types of the division, they have the mentality (and critically, the institutional support) to take the "Anyone, anywhere" mentality to heart. They're aiming for a Stagg, and that's how they get their team ready.

But what about some of these games between two solid, fringy playoff programs: Say what we saw with IC and Brockport these last few years.

Are they going to view the upside of a *stronger* 9-1 resume as greater than the downside of possibly being 8-2?

Or are they going to just go schedule someone that might be looking for a 10th game like TCNJ to make sure they're 9-1?

Because regardless of all the various what ifs and SOS numbers and what we might say about every year being different, with IC's resume last year having such a high SOS, and UMHB losing to a possible top 5 OOC opponent by literal inches, it might be pretty hard to convince these schools that the argument isn't just "9-1 > 8-2" and that the best way to give themselves a second lifeline for the playoffs is to take the road that gets them there.

[Ralph Turner]

IC798891 wrote...


Here's sort of my big-picture question (It's entirely too soon to go through scenarios for me):

What happens to the solid, if unspectacular OOC games if the teams feel that precedent has essentially become: run the table in OOC if you want a Pool C?

The UMHB and UWW types of the division, they have the mentality (and critically, the institutional support) to take the "Anyone, anywhere" mentality to heart. They're aiming for a Stagg, and that's how they get their team ready.

But what about some of these games between two solid, fringy playoff programs: Say what we saw with IC and Brockport these last few years.

Are they going to view the upside of a *stronger* 9-1 resume as greater than the downside of possibly being 8-2?

Or are they going to just go schedule someone that might be looking for a 10th game like TCNJ to make sure they're 9-1?

Because regardless of all the various what ifs and SOS numbers and what we might say about every year being different, with IC's resume last year having such a high SOS, and UMHB losing to a possible top 5 OOC opponent by literal inches, it might be pretty hard to convince these schools that the argument isn't just "9-1 > 8-2" and that the best way to give themselves a second lifeline for the playoffs is to take the road that gets them there.




I really like your post. +1 and I have taken it out of the quotes and enlarged the font to give it more presence and emphasis.

I think that you have framed the question facing the Selection Committee on  November 12th.

[Ralph Turner]

The way that I interpreted all of the really great OOC games was that they were playing for home field advantage to the deepest week in the playoffs.

What if Muhlenberg had beaten UMHB and won the Centennial?  Does that 10-0 record earn the seeding to host all the way to the Semi-finals, including hosting Mount Union? Muhlenberg would have had an OOC win over UMHB; UMU over Defiance. A 9-1 Muhlenberg might be in consideration for hosting 3 rounds in an "eastern seaboard" bracket.

For me, the question as to who has home field advantage in the Western bracket thru the semi-finals after week #2 comes down to St Johns versus NCC.

Linfield looks strong thru 3 rounds, especially if the Huntingdon win over BSC gets better in retrospect.

[IC798891]

The way that I interpreted all of the really great OOC games was that they were playing for home field advantage to the deepest week in the playoffs.

Right, I think your assessment is dead on there.

But the division isn't just those types of teams. And, with all due respect to those teams, I'm not even sure those games — and the larger goal stated above — are really in line with the D3 ethos.

Great games? Absolutely. Great teams? 100%. And it's not like there's anything ethically wrong with any of it. But D3 places an emphasis on regional play and conference championships. Traveling across the county to essentially play for HFA in the national quarters/semis is not that.

So I think it's reasonable to ask if the unintended trickle down effect of those games — as it relates to the remaining 98% of the division and their OOC scheduling, is a good thing.

[Etchglow]

The way that I interpreted all of the really great OOC games was that they were playing for home field advantage to the deepest week in the playoffs.

Right, I think your assessment is dead on there.

But the division isn't just those types of teams. And, with all due respect to those teams, I'm not even sure those games — and the larger goal stated above — are really in line with the D3 ethos.

Great games? Absolutely. Great teams? 100%. And it's not like there's anything ethically wrong with any of it. But D3 places an emphasis on regional play and conference championships. Traveling across the county to essentially play for HFA in the national quarters/semis is not that.

So I think it's reasonable to ask if the unintended trickle down effect of those games — as it relates to the remaining 98% of the division and their OOC scheduling, is a good thing.

What would you propose for the island teams to do to fill those OOC matchups besides traveling across the country?  Hardin-Simmons called 150+ teams this year trying to get an out of conference game and they were only able to get one of the two they needed.  With the conference getting smaller next year they're going to need three games.  Or, since "D3 places an emphasis on regional play and conference championships" should they be excluded because no one wants to play them and they're on an island? 

[wally_wabash]

Great games? Absolutely. Great teams? 100%. And it's not like there's anything ethically wrong with any of it. But D3 places an emphasis on regional play and conference championships. Traveling across the county to essentially play for HFA in the national quarters/semis is not that.

So I think it's reasonable to ask if the unintended trickle down effect of those games — as it relates to the remaining 98% of the division and their OOC scheduling, is a good thing.

If nobody regional will play them, I'll take games like the ones we got Saturday 100 times out of 100 versus more games with NAIAs or (worse) teams playing just 9 games.  It seems like it was inevitable that eventually, the tippy top teams that can't get OOC agreements were going to have to start playing each other.  Or playing non-division games.  Or losing competition opportunities completely. 

Options are limited on the Texas island.  What's capital R Regional there isn't exactly travel friendly for schools working with limited budgets. I don't believe this earns teams on the islands a pass when it comes to selection/seeding criteria- but we can acknowledge the additional challenge they have compared to teams that exist in densely populated D3 areas. 

If the power programs consolidating their positions by playing each other in the OOC portion of they year is troubling to the other 98% of the division, there's an easy solution.  If you're one of first, say 50 schools, that Jesse Burleson or Kevin Bullis or Larry Harmon calls to play a game, say yes.