Pool C 2022

[wally_wabash]

10-0 vs 10-0 doesn't show much. Yes you can look at SOS but does it really reflect how good a team is if it's a tenth or hundredth difference if they're in a weaker conference that has a down year? 

I will agree that SOS is less valuable when comparing unbeaten teams. And I would be keener on using RRs when comparing teams without losses. But the only time we're comparing 10-0 teams is when we're considering matchups and hosting. If you're 10-0, you won your conference and the AQ that goes along with it. When it comes to pool C, the committee is comparing teams with 1 or 2 (on rare occasions 3) losses. At that point, I don't see how RRs is a useful stat when you can simply look at each teams SOS, their losses, and their best wins.

Were the NCAA's SOS metric better, maybe we could just have the SOS and leave it at that.  But the NCAA's SOS metric is a blunt instrument prone to being wildly misleading or even wrong. 

For instance, right now the NCAA's SOS metric tells us that Ripon has played a stronger schedule than UW-Oshkosh and Carnegie Mellon and Trintiy(TX) and that is...not correct.    If we're going to use SOS as a precision instrument, it needs serious calibrating. 

[smedindy]

Though we can't just focus on the good teams - we need to take the whole schedule into consideration.

C-M has played Thiel, Allegheny, and Geneva. They're...not good.

Trinity has a lot of meh (Sul Ross, TLU, Hendrix, Rhodes)

In this formula, Oshkosh's seemingy good wins in conference get knocked down a bit because of how the WIAC bludgeons each other.

But Ripon's SOS will decline the next two weeks. They've not played the really bad teams of their conference, and with one non-conference game the SOS will hover up higher because of that.

But it's not a very good measure. The issue is that many teams have just 1 or 2 non-conference game and many are limited by geography and budget who they can play. Without some sort of metric formula that takes into account more than just winning percentage, we're going to get these odd results.

[Cowboy2]

Sul Ross has a though schedule though. Two top 10 teams in their conference. Plus another one in their OOC vs Trinity and then played a 21-7 game vs D2 A&M Kingsville. Not sure how many teams in the rest of D3 have that to go against! I'd also say they have some studs that could start on most of any team...but they have like 80 freshman so they need some growth.

TLU plays UMHB HSU and TU every year as well....3 top 10 teams

Hendrix and Rhodes have to play Berry BSC Centre and Trinity every year... that's not an easy road either. All 4 of those teams have been in the top 25 or received votes until they get bounced by inter conference play. Heck Berry played a closer game against UWW than UWO in my opinion.

R3 may not get a lot of wow factor when looking at the gauntlet the R6 teams have to go through, but I think they still play good ball...not a meh schedule

[Bmo]

Sul Ross lost to TAMUK 35-14 according to their site.  Still a great result against a Top-20 D2.

To make things more interesting, SR got down early 28 - 0 to HPU while they were breaking in their QB2.  The first string was injured the previous week against TLU but had been outstanding.  It's not completely out of the question that the SR/HPU game has a different result if their QB1 starts.  With that result, SR would have a 3-4 record and you probably could count the number of teams on one, maybe two hands, that would have had a better record given the same schedule.

I think this means that a full-strength SR ranges from an absolute floor of 'meh' to potentially quite a bit above average, but you can only play the games on your schedule with the people you have.

[smedindy]

Those D2 results are nice, but they don't count.

Muskingum and Marietta have to play Mt. Union and John Carroll each year. Gustavus and Augsburg play St. John's and Bethel each year. This happens with teams in the top conferences.

I think this discussion does demonstrate the issue of this metric, especially with so few games outside of your conference for many teams. So it's hard to tell how good, say, Augustana or Carroll really are because the CCIW has 2 buzzsaws and a Wash U. that's improving.

[Cowboy2]

Sul Ross lost to TAMUK 35-14 according to their site.  Still a great result against a Top-20 D2.

Apologies. You're correct. I guess the final score didn't populate when I looked at the scoreboard that day....but it was 21-7 into the 4Q and that's where it must have left in my memory bank.

That paired with the D3 juggernauts they've had to play, makes a winning culture hard to implement....but should make them stronger next season.

Nonetheless an impressive showing against a program that traditionally is known for football. The old saying in south Texas was, "Go to A&M to get your degree....go to A&I to get to the league!"

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Working on my Pool C eliminator and I think the WIAC only has one team left with a Pool C shot... and that would be UWL. Only UWW and UWL have fewer than 3 D3 losses now and Whitewater won the h2h.
I'll have more scenarios on everyone else later tonight.

[BSCpanthers]

Birmingham Southern is still fighting for a spot. 

[Captainred81]

A)  While the SOS needs work, it is only one factor of several that help a committee choose team.  The selection committee definitely know its about more than just wins and losses. 
B)  Regional rankings are 100% needed.  There are 6 regions and 240 teams.  Even Pat and Greg can't keep up with every team in every region and understand who they played, who they beat, who their opponents beat.  Also, This is, again, only one of several factors that the RAC's use to choose the field.
C)  I don't know for certain, but I give the inherent human bias credit for putting NCC in the field in 2019.  They probably had a low SOS, and they got crushed by Wheaton, but someone had a feeling. I think they were the last team in maybe... Then they smoked everyone on their way to their first Walnut and Bronze for football.
D)  When does the first alphabetical list of proposed best teams by region come out? 

[Hawks88]

I think they usually come out on Wednesdays.

[wally_wabash]

Yes, first rankings on Wednesday!

[DuffMan]

Yes, first rankings on Wednesday!

That's what you said last week. 

[wally_wabash]

Yes, first rankings on Wednesday!

That's what you said last week. 

Yep.  Big time fumble on that last week. 

[DuffMan]

Lol, I was originally thinking it'd be this week. Then, your discussion on the ATN podcast made me believe I was wrong.  1-0 for DuffMan, and that is my stat. 

[smedindy]

I know VOLLEYBALL came out last week. At least D-2, because we got the ol' alpha order ranking (CWU has a great volleyball program that plays in a meat-grinder conference). But I guess volleyball's a week ahead or they get an additional set?

I dunno, man. Just give us rankings, NCAA. And not the alphabetical ones. Do that for weeks 1-7. By week 8 they should be able to rank 'em.