Pool C 2022

[smedindy]

A lot of us have landed on at least four of the five teams with the fifth being a coin flip (I think the lowering of Wheaton's SOS by North Park will hurt, but hey).

You know what that means?

CHAOS Saturday!

[USee]

Wheaton is gonna be about .550 after NPU game. Still stronger than most in Pool C

[USee]

From the Championship Manual, here are the primary criteria for selection of Pool C:

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed
will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
-Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
-Division III head-to-head competition;
-Results versus common Division III opponents;
-Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference
postseason contests are included;
-Division III strength of schedule.
-Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the
season is applicable (i.e., end-of-season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval of the
Championships Committee

I find it noteworthy that few people are mentioning the final bullet, end of season performance. The St Johns/Bethel loser will have a season ending loss, JCU will have a loss in the next to last week. Alma/Albion loser will have a loss in the last week. Not sure what it means, but it's listed as a primary criteria.

That language is taken verbatim from the Division III manual, and I don't know that I'd say it means football has decided to adopt it. I checked other fall sports and men's and women's soccer have the exact language while volleyball and field hockey list "won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the season" as a criterion. Make of that what you will.

It's in the Division III championship football manual as a primary criteria. I'd say if it's in there, it's been adopted. It's not an optional criteria

[Inkblot]

From the Championship Manual, here are the primary criteria for selection of Pool C:

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed
will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
-Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
-Division III head-to-head competition;
-Results versus common Division III opponents;
-Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference
postseason contests are included;
-Division III strength of schedule.
-Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the
season is applicable (i.e., end-of-season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval of the
Championships Committee

I find it noteworthy that few people are mentioning the final bullet, end of season performance. The St Johns/Bethel loser will have a season ending loss, JCU will have a loss in the next to last week. Alma/Albion loser will have a loss in the last week. Not sure what it means, but it's listed as a primary criteria.

That language is taken verbatim from the Division III manual, and I don't know that I'd say it means football has decided to adopt it. I checked other fall sports and men's and women's soccer have the exact language while volleyball and field hockey list "won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the season" as a criterion. Make of that what you will.

It's in the Division III championship football manual as a primary criteria. I'd say if it's in there, it's been adopted. It's not an optional criteria

Doesn't it specifically say it's optional?

Whatever the case, it's not a change from previous years and I don't think there's been a noticeable lean in Pool C selections towards teams that lost earlier.

[smedindy]

Wheaton is gonna be about .550 after NPU game. Still stronger than most in Pool C

A one loss Utica looks to be a better candidate, and a one loss King's may be as attractive as a two-loss Wheaton. But that's just my eyeball.

[bleedpurple]

Wheaton is gonna be about .550 after NPU game. Still stronger than most in Pool C

A one loss Utica looks to be a better candidate, and a one loss King's may be as attractive as a two-loss Wheaton. But that's just my eyeball.

I don't know. Since we are talking about access to the National Championship...

If you take a step back, three factors has me thinking Wheaton is a stronger Pool C selection than Utica:

1.  If you play Utica's schedule, you can't have a loss and razor close wins against Morrisville State, Western New England, and Kean. 
2.  I think most reasonable people evaluating Utica playing Wheaton's schedule would project three losses and probably less competitive results against Trinity and NCC.
3. I think most reasonable people evaluating Utica playing Wheaton would project a Wheaton victory.

Part of the committee's job has to be to not get so caught up in minutia that they send a lesser team.  We have only five at-large bids.  If there is a plausible path to pick the better team, they need to take it.

[desertcat1]

Wheaton is gonna be about .550 after NPU game. Still stronger than most in Pool C

A one loss Utica looks to be a better candidate, and a one loss King's may be as attractive as a two-loss Wheaton. But that's just my eyeball.

Other eyeballs see it the same too.

[USee]

Wheaton is gonna be about .550 after NPU game. Still stronger than most in Pool C

A one loss Utica looks to be a better candidate, and a one loss King's may be as attractive as a two-loss Wheaton. But that's just my eyeball.

Putting aside Smed's decade long hatred of Wheaton, for the sake of analysis, this could be the conclusion the committee makes. Several problems with this. First, the Region 2 RAC thinks Johns Hopkins (R2 #5) is better than Utica (R2#6). And objectively, by the primary criteria, Utica is better than JHU  (same win %, better RRO result, stronger SOS). So the 2RAC has to be considering the fact that Utica's 20 pt loss at home to Region 1 #1 Delaware Valley is materially different than JHU's 2 pt loss on the road to Region 2 #2 Susquehanna. That's the only advantage JHU has over Utica (to the chagrin of the national chair).So Utica isn't going anywhere until JHU does.

Second, if you are going to come to the conclusion that JHU (and then Utica) are getting in ahead of Wheaton, then you have to believe JHU is getting in ahead of not just Wheaton, but also the STJ/Bethel loser (or any other 2 loss team). That's because according to the primary criteria that apply to these teams, objectively, Wheaton and STJ/Beth are statistically significantly better than JHU in 2 of the 3 (RR results, SOS) and worse in one (Winning %). The chair said all primary criteria are weighted equally. You could say Utica is tied with Wheaton in SOS (.547 to .550) and they split the winning % and RRO criteria, but the 2RAC is blocking you from thinking that with their placement of JHU. I wonder why? Could it be that they think JHU is a better team than Utica? ((Bleed--the 2RAC is listening). An added complication: If you throw in the "optional" final criteria of end of season loss, JHU/Utica fare better against  the STJ/Bethel loser.

A final consideration in all of this is the fact that StJ/Bethel are both ranked ahead of 1 loss LaCrosse and if that remains the case after today's games, the MIAC loser blocks UWL. That's probably unlikely given that UWL would probably be the first Pool C taken if they beat Platteville and finish with 1 loss.

So if you believe Utica is better than Wheaton, then you are a "1 loss" guy and all the 2 loss teams have to be considered later. Pool C then becomes UWLX, Kings, Utica, HSU and the Albion/Alma loser. Stj/Beth loser and Wheaton stay home.

[Ralph Turner]

The main thing that made this season so much fun is that coaches sought out really hard games. Those games gave real head-to-head measures of the relative strengths. Those games gave us an idea of who should be hosting deep into the playoffs. Look at all of the games that occurred between regionally ranked teams in other regions! That is what we need in football. In baseball, we have 8, 10, or even 12 games to consider over the 40+ game season, especially occurring when northern teams go south for spring break.

I do not want the committee to send the message that a 2-loss team like Wheaton should have scheduled Sewanee instead of Trinity TX.

[Cowboy2]

Wheaton is gonna be about .550 after NPU game. Still stronger than most in Pool C

A one loss Utica looks to be a better candidate, and a one loss King's may be as attractive as a two-loss Wheaton. But that's just my eyeball.

Putting aside Smed's decade long hatred of Wheaton, for the sake of analysis, this could be the conclusion the committee makes. Several problems with this. First, the Region 2 RAC thinks Johns Hopkins (R2 #5) is better than Utica (R2#6). And objectively, by the primary criteria, Utica is better than JHU  (same win %, better RRO result, stronger SOS). So the 2RAC has to be considering the fact that Utica's 20 pt loss at home to Region 1 #1 Delaware Valley is materially different than JHU's 2 pt loss on the road to Region 2 #2 Susquehanna. That's the only advantage JHU has over Utica (to the chagrin of the national chair).So Utica isn't going anywhere until JHU does.

Second, if you are going to come to the conclusion that JHU (and then Utica) are getting in ahead of Wheaton, then you have to believe JHU is getting in ahead of not just Wheaton, but also the STJ/Bethel loser (or any other 2 loss team). That's because according to the primary criteria that apply to these teams, objectively, Wheaton and STJ/Beth are statistically significantly better than JHU in 2 of the 3 (RR results, SOS) and worse in one (Winning %). The chair said all primary criteria are weighted equally. You could say Utica is tied with Wheaton in SOS (.547 to .550) and they split the winning % and RRO criteria, but the 2RAC is blocking you from thinking that with their placement of JHU. I wonder why? Could it be that they think JHU is a better team than Utica? ((Bleed--the 2RAC is listening). An added complication: If you throw in the "optional" final criteria of end of season loss, JHU/Utica fare better against  the STJ/Bethel loser.

A final consideration in all of this is the fact that StJ/Bethel are both ranked ahead of 1 loss LaCrosse and if that remains the case after today's games, the MIAC loser blocks UWL. That's probably unlikely given that UWL would probably be the first Pool C taken if they beat Platteville and finish with 1 loss.

So if you believe Utica is better than Wheaton, then you are a "1 loss" guy and all the 2 loss teams have to be considered later. Pool C then becomes UWLX, Kings, Utica, HSU and the Albion/Alma loser. Stj/Beth loser and Wheaton stay home.

I think Wheaton should be the first 2 loss team selected. Heck maybe 2nd or 3rd team chosen. STJ/Bethel loser is a good choice too but the way the MIAC is, it's almost a given there will be a 2 loss team or split every year with those two going against each other. So subjectively it increases each teams SOS in the case of both of them getting to play one another twice. It would be as if Wheaton played NCC twice. Just my two cents. There are a lot of good 2 loss programs that would make a better case based on OCC and intraconfrences losses that I think these 2 loss teams should be considered over some of the 1 loss Pool C teams. 9-1 vs 8-2 team can be vastly different.  A ton of factors to sift through but I didn't quite agree on the podcast when he said it's  evaluated by a win or loss but not point margin or how they beat a team on common opponents, but then we are human so we look at some stuff with the RACs etc. kind of all over the place and makes you wonder what is the criteria. But enough with the nonsense, unless Wheaton loses today, they should be in. If UWL wins they should be In. So UWP may get booted and then I doubt HSU gets picked. Bethel/STJ loser should make it in my opinion based on who they played and results this yesr. JHU is a good candidate too. Last spot will be a flip of a coin based on who is left and who passed the "eye test."

Should be a fun Saturday today!

[Inkblot]

King's did their part to simplify matters.

[monsoon]

Final:
Alma    34
Albion  31

[Cowboy2]

Was just about to post if Mount Union would get a pool c until they scored a last second TD. Looked like he went for the pick and Ruby caught it in the end zone

Wild season! Wow. Playoffs haven't even started yet.

[USee]

The final profiles for the potential at large teams (with final records and SOS post Sat) are:


UWLX (Region 6 #5) 9-1 (1-1).556 (Loss V Region 6 #4,  win over Region 6 #6)
Bethel (Region 6 #2)8-2 (1-2).612 (Win vs Region 6 #2, Loss @ Region 6 #6, Loss at Region 6 #2)
Wheaton (Region 5 #3) 8-2 (1-2) .551 (Loss @ Region 3 #1, @ Region 5#1, Win over Region 5 #7)
Albion (Region 4 #2) 9-1 (0-1) .544 ( loss @ Region 4 #3)
JHU (Region 2 #5) 9-1 (0-1) .505 (Loss @ Region 2 #2)
Utica (Region 2 #6) 9-1 (0-1) .528 (Loss vs Region 2 #1)
HSU (Region 3 #5) 8-1 (1-1) .485 (win at Region 6 #6, Loss to Region 3 #3)
John Carroll (Region 4 #6) 8-2 (1-1) .540 (Loss @ Region 4 #1, Win vs Region 4 #7)

Albion will slide from #2 in Region 4, Bethel will slide from #2 in Region 6, probably getting passed by UWL as #3 and St Johns moves up to #2. Only other spot is JHU at #5, but I suspect Cortland and Ithaca switch spots and Susquehanna moves up to #1 with Ithaca ahead of Cortland at #2/3 or 3/4 depending on the Carnegie Mellon/CWRU game tonight, but if JHU moves up a spot that could marginally help their resume. All others held serve.

There is some work at the bottom of some of the regions that could affect the RR results of playoff and at large teams. the 8 team Region 3 sorted itself with Belhaven losing. Region 4 could lose BW which hurts JCU and the inclusion of someone else is unknown. Lake Forest won the AQ (I believe) beating Chicago so they could reappear in the 5 at another teams expense (all of whom won), The 6 has to decide what to do with Platteville and if Gustavus sneaks in Bethel gets an RRO win, bolstering their Pool C case.

[USee]

Crazy thing about the Mt Union finish is that apparantly, in a 3 way tie the tiebreaker is a secret vote among the head coaches. In that case they could easily have voted in JCU or BW so the OAC would get 2 as Mt Union would have been a pool C lock. In the MWC the tiebreaker among Lake Forest, Ripon and Monmouth is which team has led for the most quarters of games during the season. Looks like Lake Forest will get the AQ there. Crazy stuff these tiebreakers.