2022 Season Game Notes

[Fitz@615]

Obviously, losing the "Super Seniors", but I have told only 1 of the true Seniors is NOT returning at this point. It comes from good intel as I have a son on the team.

[Coach Jeff]

The scary thing about this Messiah team is they're also not graduating many players after this season.  I'm sure one of the Messiah fans/parents with better info can chime in but they're graduating Groothoff, Brautigam, and Swartz and then who else?  I'm assuming the seniors listed on the roster will be taking their additional eligibility year from Covid.

Their Keeper Pavlovich is a super senior as well

[MessageBoardMessi]

From a national perspective, up until last night, I saw Chicago at #1 with a perfect 14-0 record and Messiah at a close #2 because of the 1 tie early in the season and a weaker overall SOS but last night's game Messiah vs Hood blew me away. I have no choice but to put Messiah at #1 now. They were up 9-0 with 20 minutes to play and just passed in circles to avoid making it 10+ and at least half of the goals were from the second team. In a game where the starters play the majority of the game and no goal restrictions I can only wonder if they would have scored 20. (I have to assume the coaching staff told them not to score anymore the way they were playing at the end). It was one of the most dominant D3 games I have ever seen in my life across the board. Here is the link to the stats sheet in case anyone doesn't believe it https://gomessiah.com/sports/mens-soccer/stats/2022/hood-college/boxscore/10385

Let's take a look at Hood over the year.  They are currently 3-10-2 and only scoring 10 goals so far and giving up 38 (9 last night).  To be honest it looked like Messiah was playing a good High School team.  They gave up 4 goals off of uncontested headers and 13 corners.  I looked at their 3 wins Neuman, EMU, and Marymount have a combined record of 15-21-7 creating a win % of 35.  I am not ready to crown them D3 champs yet.  This win is a win but not a crowning moment.  They are supposed to win these games.

Maybe. But it was extremely impressive. Hood effectively played a 1-9-1 formation last night and packed the 18, and Messiah didn't waiver in their approach. They move and possess the ball better than any team I have watched (especially in tight spaces). While I am not into crowning anyone ahead of a single elimination tourney that can easily create upsets - messiahs ability to move the ball and score is uncanny. And while I guess you have to call them "second team" - any other D3 team would be thrilled to start and play every member of that bench for the entire 90 minutes.  They will be fun to watch this postseason - and while they have to earn it - I do think they are #1 for many reasons.

I definitely use second team loosely. The guys coming off the bench this year have scored close to if not more goals than the first team. It should really be the starting 22 not starting 11.

I will take it to another level  - Id call them the starting 27.......The entire squad is first team quality.

MessageBoardMessi I read your post about Messiah's Second team scored almost the same as the starting 11.  I found that interesting so I went to Messiah's webpage and looked it up because I new that McDonald (starter) had 16 goals on his own.  The first 11 have 41 goals leaving only 23 for the other players.  I thought your stats were a little off.  I do agree that the team as a whole is very deep and anyone can score.  They are fun to watch.

That was Soccer guy17 post - not mine.....but we are really splitting hairs here.....23 goals out of the non starting 11 -  news flash - that's good.  Another News Flash....Messiah is good.  Messiah is deep.  Messiah will make a run for a national title.  We can all spend energy making sure the decimal is in the right place - but all the energy around this level of detail is superfluous.

[SimpleCoach]

@PaulNewman and I go into the some interesting subjects, including a fun discussion around programs that could/should be better.

The New Show - I Got Vision and the Rest of the World Wears Bifocals

[Saint of Old]

You guys are doing great work man.
It is not unappreciated.

[SimpleCoach]

You guys are doing great work man.
It is not unappreciated.

Thanks @Saint of Old.  I/We do appreciate the kind words.

SC.

[PaulNewman]

You guys are doing great work man.
It is not unappreciated.

Thanks, Saint.  I know it may be a lot of sit through but hopefully there's a little something for most folks...everything from FW to Emerson soccer, to programs in decline and some in decline that shouldn't be, to a SC special GK segment with video dissection, to shoutouts for Josh Shapiro and Brandon Bianco, to games of the week with special attention on Trinity (TX) @ St Thomas tonight and OWU @ Denison on Saturday.

[4samuy]

Another good show gentlemen.  In particular I was intrigued when your discussion shifted to teams that were on the radar annually and have recently dropped off a bit.  You had mentioned a school who someone who has some insight to the school, had mentioned a drop off due to an increase in academic standards and in IMHO I couldn't disagree more.  Now I agree that there may be an acclimation process for particular school that raises its academic standards and will admit that I have no internal knowledge of said school, but as SC mentioned Tufts has high academic standards with Plenty of athletics success.

I'll take it a step further and use MIT and Univ of Chicago (yes two other top research institutions) .  The last I checked both are the top two in all of division 3 (could be off with up to date numbers) with 7 % acceptance rates which are extremely low #'s.  The best of the best kind of numbers.  Both institutions are in the top ten in lowest acceptance rates  for all sports divisions nationwide.  Since this is a soccer board, I would say both have done quite well over the last eight or nine years.  Since the Scott Wiercinski era at Chicago (who seems to have finally carved a nice niche at bowdoin) the Maroons have been a top program doing it with three different coaches, two of whom have taken them to the final four (Mike Babst, head coach at Davidson and Pat Flinn head coach at Drake) and the third Julianne sitch who's destiny is yet to be determined, but seems to be keeping to the programs high standards.

You guys also mentioned coaching continuity which IMHO is an important piece to winning programs.   I'll also use Chicago as an example due to the fact that they have had three coaches in the last nine? Years.  But within those nine years, the two head coaches who followed babst were previously part of the Chicago program in different capacities.
So even though coaches were promoted to D1 jobs and all of its benefits they were able to keep the continuity and familiarity that IMO has kept the program competing on a national level.

Now,  please don't get me wrong comparing said school in your discussion with Chicago and MIT.  Im not that blind....yet, and I won't go down a rabbit hole as it relates to endowments of some of these research institutions.

IMO It's as simple as an athletics program (soccer in this case)indentifying the student athlete they feel fit into their program and the admission standards of the institution and go out and recruit your program and the institution. And IMO that job can be made much easier with continuity within the coaching circles, Program vision /success and the academic reputation of the university/campus

[PaulNewman]

@4samuy, appreciate your post and appreciate you watching.  I can understand how you parsed out that one statement but as noted SC immediately countered with Tufts having difficult admissions and of course we all know that some of the best programs have been some of the ones hardest to gain admission to.  As I think we acknowledged it's hard to know the exact factors in every instance for why certain programs have slipped or appear near life-support status.  Obviously a complex issue with likely very different explanations depending on who we are talking about.  What seems like a disadvantage for the most academically elite is in some ways a huge advantage....soccer in many areas tends to be an upper income sport where families spend a lot of money on club soccer, camps, SAT tutors, etc, etc and there are natural pipelines from some of the most elite prep schools, most elite public schools, various Catholic schools with strong academics and athletics programs, etc.  The exclusivity becomes a plus for recruiting actually as the elite seek the elite and nothing says elite more than being center-mid at Phillips Exeter, or Phillips Andover, or Choate Rosemary Hall, or Woodberry Forest or Harvard Westlake and the like, and oh, btw, I also play for MLS Next somewhere.   Then schools like Messiah and Calvin have natural pipelines as a result of their orientation and some clear parameters in terms of what they are looking for.  I've had an interest in schools that are NOT at risk for shutting down and are in general quite healthy who have dipped or don't have strong soccer programs currently....like Trinity (CT), Union (NY), DePauw, etc...all of those are very attractive schools but not impossible to get in for those who can't quite access Amherst, Williams, Chicago, Swat, Hopkins, Wash U, etc, etc.  Those I named that are peer schools with other very attractive places like Denison, F&M, Dickinson, Gettysburg, etc for me looking from a distance and not presuming to know the particulars in each case have the resources to have stronger programs.   Similar answer for the coaching.  Stability is great...IF the coach is great.  As you aptly noted, some programs have had changeovers in coaching and never or barely missed a beat.  And getting a great new coach doesn't happen without a coach retiring, being encouraged to retire, or pursuing something else.  Tufts doesn't get Shapiro unless Ferrigno quits, and Bianco doesn't get a chance at Denison unless their coach for the past 20 years steps aside.  It would take too long to go through each one and decipher why more "midstream" coaching changes worked for Chicago, Conn Coll, probably Tufts, etc and did not work so much at Wheaton (Ill) or Wheaton (MA) for that matter, Loras, and a slew of others. 

[northman]

Another good show gentlemen.  In particular I was intrigued when your discussion shifted to teams that were on the radar annually and have recently dropped off a bit.  You had mentioned a school who someone who has some insight to the school, had mentioned a drop off due to an increase in academic standards and in IMHO I couldn't disagree more.  Now I agree that there may be an acclimation process for particular school that raises its academic standards and will admit that I have no internal knowledge of said school, but as SC mentioned Tufts has high academic standards with Plenty of athletics success.

I'll take it a step further and use MIT and Univ of Chicago (yes two other top research institutions) .  The last I checked both are the top two in all of division 3 (could be off with up to date numbers) with 7 % acceptance rates which are extremely low #'s.  The best of the best kind of numbers.  Both institutions are in the top ten in lowest acceptance rates  for all sports divisions nationwide.  Since this is a soccer board, I would say both have done quite well over the last eight or nine years.  Since the Scott Wiercinski era at Chicago (who seems to have finally carved a nice niche at bowdoin) the Maroons have been a top program doing it with three different coaches, two of whom have taken them to the final four (Mike Babst, head coach at Davidson and Pat Flinn head coach at Drake) and the third Julianne sitch who's destiny is yet to be determined, but seems to be keeping to the programs high standards.

You guys also mentioned coaching continuity which IMHO is an important piece to winning programs.   I'll also use Chicago as an example due to the fact that they have had three coaches in the last nine? Years.  But within those nine years, the two head coaches who followed babst were previously part of the Chicago program in different capacities.
So even though coaches were promoted to D1 jobs and all of its benefits they were able to keep the continuity and familiarity that IMO has kept the program competing on a national level.

Now,  please don't get me wrong comparing said school in your discussion with Chicago and MIT.  Im not that blind....yet, and I won't go down a rabbit hole as it relates to endowments of some of these research institutions.

IMO It's as simple as an athletics program (soccer in this case)indentifying the student athlete they feel fit into their program and the admission standards of the institution and go out and recruit your program and the institution. And IMO that job can be made much easier with continuity within the coaching circles, Program vision /success and the academic reputation of the university/campus

This is a good characterization of schools like U Chicago and MIT.  My younger son, who was a top notch public school student, was recruited by both before electing to go to Bowdoin.  My older son was recruited by, played for, and graduated from Brown.  I can tell you that it's a lot easier to get into an Ivy as a recruited athlete than it is to get into MIT, or the top UAA and NESCAC schools (e.g. U Chicago, Williams, Amherst, Bowdoin, etc.).

Wiercinski is an interesting through line here.  He grew up in Brunswick, was an all-NESCAC goal keeper at Middlebury, was the outgoing assistant coach at Brown when my older son was being recruited by Mike Noonan, became the head coach at U Chicago when my younger son was being recruited, and then landed back in his hometown as Bowdoin's head coach after my younger son had graduated.  His wife Alice is a well regarded assistant AD at Bowdoin.

[paclassic89]

I'll add York to the list of schools that have dipped recently.  They were a regional powerhouse in the 2000's, nationally ranked, making runs in the tournament consistently and probably had enough talent to win a national title if some PK shootouts went their way.  There was a stretch where they beat Messiah 3 years in a row in the regular season during the years that Messiah was winning national titles.  It all went downhill after Ludwig left as head coach.

[PaulNewman]

With the caveat that I do not know the details, I sometimes think about a school like Ursinus (and I know, they actually had a pretty good last year but over the past 10-15 years typically have struggled and had losing records).  And this is where not having a very clear target population to recruit hurts and why some of the more elite schools and the faith-based school have some major advantages (even for the ones with tiny admissions rates).  Back in the day when I was a fanatic about researching every possible college I could think of and included all of the CTCL (Colleges That Change Lives) schools I developed a real affection for the school.  They recruited a great President who was doing some great things but iirc he suddenly died.  The truth is that Ursinus is a good safety school for many high to very high end students and athletes.  How in the world is Ursinus gonna beat out Hopkins, F&M, Dickinson, Swat, Haverford, Gettysburg and all the New England schools for a recruit?  They aren't.  Even when they offer 20-30K in merit money.  It's enticing, it makes you think about it, but in the end most who can access those others are not gonna pull the trigger on Ursinus. 

[Ejay]

I'll add York to the list of schools that have dipped recently.  They were a regional powerhouse in the 2000's, nationally ranked, making runs in the tournament consistently and probably had enough talent to win a national title if some PK shootouts went their way.  There was a stretch where they beat Messiah 3 years in a row in the regular season during the years that Messiah was winning national titles.  It all went downhill after Ludwig left as head coach.

Coaching change makes complete sense.  I'm curious about the schools with long time coaches that had great success but now don't. SC mentioned TCNJ and Elizabethtown. Those coaches have been around a long time and once had great programs. What happened? Game pass them by?

[paclassic89]

I'd argue that Etown still has a solid program. It's just tough, at any level, to be consistently elite.  I think the youth soccer landscape has changed considerably in the past decade or two and this has had an impact on recruiting. 

[PaulNewman]

Btw, in referencing St Johns (MN) a week or two ago I mentioned that there was one other D3 in a different state based in a town called Collegeville.  That other school was Ursinus. 

I have learned so much about my own elitism over the past decade (and still admittedly very much a work in progress).  Most East Coasters know nothing about St John's (MN).  For folks in MN and ND and surrounding states it's considered an excellent school that often several generations of families attend.  When the vast majority of people in the country (and even the majority of people in the states where these schools are) hear the names Williams, Swarthmore, Bowdoin, Carnegie Mellon, Brown, etc those names don't register with them at all....not out of disdain for privilege/elitism but truly because they have never heard of them.  I remember one time driving to Gambier after renting a car at the Pittsburgh airport and I was at a Wendy's drive-thru I think in Coshocton, OH about 25 minutes away and I asked the kid which direction to get to Kenyon and they kid looked at me like I had four heads. Most people who live in Mt Vernon, OH literally 2 miles from campus would not know any difference between Kenyon and Mt Vernon Nazarene College.  I guarantee if I go to my closest McDonalds just outside Boston there will not be a single employee (or maybe patron inside the restaurant) who has ever heard of Williams or Colby or Wesleyan.