D3 Playoffs

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Join us for a special #d3fb edition of the D3 Datacast!

What D3 Football Fans Should Know About NPI - D3 Datacast - Episode 89

✅NPI crash course
✅Learning from "history"
✅Setting expectations

📺: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94_NTM2k1nc

[NCC2010]

NPI is now updated after yesterday games

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/39771

[Ralph Turner]

Looking at the NPI, the team I feel the most empathy for is Ithaca.

Losses to Endicott, JHU and Hobart.

They might have 4 losses, each to a conference champion.

[Captainred81]

I've been thinking about how good the WIAC really is...

I think LAX losing to GVSU by 7 is the thing that is throwing everything off. I was looking at the D2 website, and Grand Valley is good team in their conference and their division, and the make up of their team includes scholarship players... so the expectation is that they will be bigger faster and stronger than a D3 team.  However, Lacrosse beat Northern Michigan and Alma beat northern Michigan and Oshkosh lost to Michigan tech and Whitewater beat Roosevelt.  I guess what I'm saying is that the close loss to GVSU may not be the resounding achievement that we're all making it to be. 

I can't make sense of it

If Oshkosh wins out they, win the conference and their in... Right?  If they lose one, they're out completely maybe?  Since they'll have 3 losses (one to a D2 school)

If Oshkosh wins out and UWP doesn't, are they out?  Completely with 2 losses? 

If stout wins out and wins the AQ, do they simultaneously eliminate Oshkosh and UWP? 

Are these team rooting for status quo?  IE Mount and JCU to beat Marietta, Whitworth to be linfield, SJU to win the MIAC outright etc... This way they are reducing the amount of 9-1 teams throughout the division?  Thus making it easier for an 8-2 to make it in? 

Ultimately, the most competitive league in the division may end up with 1 team in the playoffs, by NPI rankings, due to some OOC losses and round robin beatings within the conference. 

All that being said, all this hoo ha about putting the WIAC teams in another conference and having be a cake walk is ridiculous.  Member when WW played aurora in the first round of the playoffs a couple years ago?  Aurora is in the NACC.  Just because they are very competitive with each other, doesn't mean they'll roll into the playoffs and advance. 

[USee]

FWIW, I would add that Stout lost at home by double digits to CCIW #6 Carrol (4-4) and North Central just beat Carroll 56-3.

[NCC2010]

I've been thinking about how good the WIAC really is...

I think LAX losing to GVSU by 7 is the thing that is throwing everything off. I was looking at the D2 website, and Grand Valley is good team in their conference and their division, and the make up of their team includes scholarship players... so the expectation is that they will be bigger faster and stronger than a D3 team.  However, Lacrosse beat Northern Michigan and Alma beat northern Michigan and Oshkosh lost to Michigan tech and Whitewater beat Roosevelt.  I guess what I'm saying is that the close loss to GVSU may not be the resounding achievement that we're all making it to be. 

I can't make sense of it

If Oshkosh wins out they, win the conference and their in... Right?  If they lose one, they're out completely maybe?  Since they'll have 3 losses (one to a D2 school)

If Oshkosh wins out and UWP doesn't, are they out?  Completely with 2 losses? 

If stout wins out and wins the AQ, do they simultaneously eliminate Oshkosh and UWP? 

Are these team rooting for status quo?  IE Mount and JCU to beat Marietta, Whitworth to be linfield, SJU to win the MIAC outright etc... This way they are reducing the amount of 9-1 teams throughout the division?  Thus making it easier for an 8-2 to make it in? 

Ultimately, the most competitive league in the division may end up with 1 team in the playoffs, by NPI rankings, due to some OOC losses and round robin beatings within the conference. 

All that being said, all this hoo ha about putting the WIAC teams in another conference and having be a cake walk is ridiculous.  Member when WW played aurora in the first round of the playoffs a couple years ago?  Aurora is in the NACC.  Just because they are very competitive with each other, doesn't mean they'll roll into the playoffs and advance. 

If Oshkosh wins out they, win the conference and their in... Right?  If they lose one, they're out completely maybe?  Since they'll have 3 losses (one to a D2 school) D2 loss doesnt count against them, they are probably still in if the only lose 1 more.

If Oshkosh wins out and UWP doesn't, are they out?  Completely with 2 losses? Platteville still in unless they go 0-2 the next 2 weeks

If stout wins out and wins the AQ, do they simultaneously eliminate Oshkosh and UWP? Not sure what WIAC tiebreakers are, but that could leave a 4-way tie at 5-2 in conference (depends how Lacrosse does). Oshkosh and Platteville still would make it as Pool C if they both only have 2 losses and Lacrosse might as well.

this is all based off Logan Hansen's model predictions.  as of right now, UWP and UWO are most likely in, and Lacrosse needs to win out to be in.  There are scenarios where the WIAC sends anywhere from 1 to 4 teams to playoffs based on the next 2 weeks.  I have been following the WIAC outcomes pretty closely because the last mock bracket Logan put out had NCC facing Lacrosse in round of 32, potentially facing Platteville in round of 16 and then Oshkosh in the quarterfinals. Really hoping that doesnt happen lol.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The current NPI rankings of teams not locked in yet

3 St John's
8 Springfield
9 Whitworth
12 DePauw
14 UW-Platteville
19 Bethel
20 Wash & Jeff
23 Carnegie Mellon
24 Grove City
25 Linfield
26 Ursinus
27 Marietta

28 Berry
29 UW-Oshkosh
30 Wabash
32 Coe
33 Centre
34 Texas Lutheran
36 UW-La Crosse

37 Mary Hardin-Baylor
38 Trinity (TX)
39 Wheaton
40 Monmouth

One of the PAC trio (20, 23, 24) will take pool A, same with MIAC (3, 19), NWC (9, 25), SAA (28, 33, 38), and NCAC (12, 30). Also win and in pool A are Springfield and Platteville.
If highest ranked teams all win that would put the line somewhere around the TLU, UWL, UMHB area but doesn't factor in teams above (19, 25, 30) dropping from losses. I think Wabash would drop below the line, Linfield would be right near the bubble and Bethel might just stay in.

[MRMIKESMITH]

The current NPI rankings of teams not locked in yet

3 St John's
8 Springfield
9 Whitworth
12 DePauw
14 UW-Platteville
19 Bethel
20 Wash & Jeff
23 Carnegie Mellon
24 Grove City
25 Linfield
26 Ursinus
27 Marietta

28 Berry
29 UW-Oshkosh
30 Wabash
32 Coe
33 Centre
34 Texas Lutheran
36 UW-La Crosse

37 Mary Hardin-Baylor
38 Trinity (TX)
39 Wheaton
40 Monmouth

One of the PAC trio (20, 23, 24) will take pool A, same with MIAC (3, 19), NWC (9, 25), SAA (28, 33, 38), and NCAC (12, 30). Also win and in pool A are Springfield and Platteville.
If highest ranked teams all win that would put the line somewhere around the TLU, UWL, UMHB area but doesn't factor in teams above (19, 25, 30) dropping from losses. I think Wabash would drop below the line, Linfield would be right near the bubble and Bethel might just stay in.

Good breakdown, I've updated my bracket based upon these findings.

[Ron Boerger]

You might also want to listen to today's D3football.com podcast which posits the 12 at-large teams if chalk happens, taking Logan Hansen's data/projections into account. 

[Captainred81]

So, when the brackets are created are they going to take the 16 lowest ranked teams by NPI and make them play in round one?  Or will it be subjective to travel restrictions and the like?  I was messing around yesterday and came up with some possible scenarios that have more island teams than normal. 

Linfield beats Whitworth and both make the field. 
Chapman (assumed AQ)
Texas Lutheran
Hardin Simmons

Would they matchup TLU and HSU in the first round to avoid travel?  Or would they bump TLU to next round to avoid travel?  They can make a NWC team play chapman, if the other NWC team is not a top 8, they can't match them up with the winner of that west coast 1st round game...can they? 

I know that a lot of the uncertainty is removed with this new system, because of the instantaneous nature of the math and the elimination of the human factor in choosing teams, but I still feel like I don't know who is going to make it in. 

Is there criteria for the bracketing outside of the top eight teams?

[Pat Coleman]

Trinity may also make the field, so that helps with the Texas island.

HSU is a protected seed at the moment. They couldn't make them play in the first round.

It is indeed supposed to be the lowest 16 teams in the NPI that play the first weekend.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Trinity may also make the field, so that helps with the Texas island.

HSU is a protected seed at the moment. They couldn't make them play in the first round.

It is indeed supposed to be the lowest 16 teams in the NPI that play the first weekend.

I feel the need that this should be emphasized with a Bold Italic.

[Captainred81]

Any idea how the pairings go after?  Will the winners of the of the opening rounds be paired against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in each of the quadrants? 

So many questions...LOL

[Pat Coleman]

Yes, that's correct.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The first round games (with who the winner faces)

Northwestern @ UW-La Crosse (St John's)
Bethel @ Coe (Lake Forest)
Alfred St @ Endicott (Cortland)
Pomona-Pizter @ Whitworth (North Central)
Mary Hardin-Baylor @ Trinity TX (Hardin-Simmons)
Maryville @ Berry (DePauw)
Ursinus @ King's (Salisbury)
Mount St Joseph @ John Carroll (Mount Union)

Ursinus probably should have had the week off as 24th ranked  NPI and not only don't get the week off but are on the road.