Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!

[Ejay]

Shocked that Catholic makes the tournament.  Outside of league champion Scranton who they played 2x (1-1), the only other Tournament team they played was Mary Washington who spanked them 3-1. 

Western Connecticut (20-0-2) on the other hand played 4 tournament teams and was 4-0-1.

[Gregory Sager]

I can't complain. North Park had a comparatively rough second half of the season, culminating in a freakish, wind-blown 3-2 defeat in the CCIW conference championship game on Saturday, so there's certainly no denying that the Vikings are down a peg or three from where they were a year ago. In spite of that, the Vikings have what I regard as a pretty favorable first weekend, playing unranked Rose-Hulman in the first round and then, if the Vikings win, almost certainly facing pod host Ohio Northern in the second round. NPU knocked off the Polar Bears in Ada earlier this season.

[Flying Weasel]

Who knows to what extent they formally do seedings being how much geography plays a part in the bracketing, but Chicago would have had to be the top seed with their record and SOS.  Not sure Messiah would have been 2nd given their SOS not being closer or over .600.  Amherst may have been 2nd.  But they had to be in the top 4, right?  And the brackets might suggest that Chicago, Stevens, Messiah, and Amherst were the top 4 seeds, but that's never been completely clear.  Anyway, I don't think Messiah ws dealt any favors in the bracketing. This year, with the inconsistency of many teams, the increased parity, and all those ties, it's harder to evaluate who the biggest hurdles may be.  But Chicago's quadrant seems to be the lightest after a first pass looking it over.  Messiah and Stevens quadrants look to be the tougher two.

Messiah has so many potential rematches lurking in which the revenge factor favors the opponent.  NYU or Williams in Round 2.  Messiah beat NYU all three meeting including this year, last year and in the 2006 Final Four.  Messiah beat Williams in two national semifinals and won in PK's in a Sweet 16 match that was worthy of a final in 2006.  But all that was over a decade ago.  It could be North Park in the Sweet 16 who they beat in the national final in 2017.  Then it could be Washington & Lee, Kenyon or Calvin in the Elite 8.  Kenyon certainly would like to get one over on Messiah after giving them a real scare in both NCAA meetings including just last year.  They beat Washington & Lee to open the season after the Generals ousted Messiah in last year's Elite 8.  Calvin got the better of Messiah the last two times they met in the tournament, so extra motivation for the Falcon's if they'd meet. 

[PaulNewman]

There are some really juicy potential second round games!
St Lawrence/Amherst
Mary Washington/OWU
Kenyon/Calvin
Stevens/Middlebury
North Park/ Ohio Northern

Yes, though, the Ohio Wesleyan v. PSU-H first round game is another one of my circled first round match-ups. PSU-H is a sleeper to do some damage in that bracket... Though I don't see either team beating Kenyon, they will both be a handful.

OWU and PS-H aren't gonna play Kenyon. 

Kenyon and Calvin are both top 6-7 teams, and one or both will be out by Saturday.  I'm not sure would have made any difference either if Kenyon had won against OWU.  Calvin usually gets OWU in the 2nd round.  Just a brutal, brutal draw (after getting Messiah in 2nd round last year), but I suppose all the more satisfying when lifting the trophy lol.

[Hopkins92]

Who knows to what extent they formally do seedings being how much geography plays a part in the bracketing, but Chicago would have had to be the top seed with their record and SOS.  Not sure Messiah would have been 2nd given their SOS not being closer or over .600.  Amherst may have been 2nd.  But they had to be in the top 4, right?  And the brackets might suggest that Chicago, Stevens, Messiah, and Amherst were the top 4 seeds, but that's never been completely clear.  Anyway, I don't think Messiah ws dealt any favors in the bracketing. This year, with the inconsistency of many teams, the increased parity, and all those ties, it's harder to evaluate who the biggest hurdles may be.  But Chicago's quadrant seems to be the lightest after a first pass looking it over.  Messiah and Stevens quadrants look to be the tougher two.

Messiah has so many potential rematches lurking in which the revenge factor favors the opponent.  NYU or Williams in Round 2.  Messiah beat NYU all three meeting including this year, last year and in the 2006 Final Four.  Messiah beat Williams in two national semifinals and won in PK's in a Sweet 16 match that was worthy of a final in 2006.  It could be North Park in the Sweet 16 who they beat in the national final in 2017.  Then it could be Washington & Lee, Kenyon and Calvin in the Elite 8.  Kenyon certainly would like to get one over on Messiah after giving them a real scare in both NCAA meetings including just last year.  They beat Washington & Lee to open the season after the General ousted Messiah in last year's Elite 8.  Calvin got the better of Messiah the last two times they met in the tournament, so extra motivation for the Falcon's if they'd meet.

I am pretty sure you are correct with your top 4. I did a thing where I was  looking at the last 4 or 5 years of the brackets (looking for the worst AQ) and I'm pretty sure the top most team in each quadrant would've been considered  the top seed in that "region." I'd have to go back and double check, but in my mind, given the results this final weekend, those are the top 4. (Like, say, a Kenyon might be a candidate, but (like Hopkins) they got pipped in their final, so... Looks like a "fair" result in terms of "seeding."

ETA - I'm not trying to equate Hop and Kenyon in hypothetical seeding, just that they both lost conf. tourney finals.

[Hopkins92]

Not for nothing, and I'm not really saying there's anything to take from this, but the C2C got 3 teams in the tournament. Same as Centennial.

Mary Washington
Wisc.-Plattesville
Chris Newport

Muhles
Dips
Hop

[southsidejet]

On that first half of the selections... Rowan and Middlebury is my circled match.

Hopkins hosting... Not the BLUE STREAKS again!!!!

[Kuiper]

Not for nothing, and I'm not really saying there's anything to take from this, but the C2C got 3 teams in the tournament. Same as Centennial.

Mary Washington
Wisc.-Plattesville
Chris Newport

Muhles
Dips
Hop

For the C2C conference, I think that's primarily the advantage of being able to play virtually an entire schedule free from conference opponent constraints, while still having a conference tournament that can give one team an AQ spot.  Maybe Christopher Newport and Wisconsin-Whitewater got small strength of schedule bumps from playing each other at the conference tournament, but that's about it as far as conference play since Christopher Newport already played Mary Washington during the season in a non-conference game and Wisconsin-Platteville lost to Salisbury. 

[SierraFD3soccer]

Not for nothing, and I'm not really saying there's anything to take from this, but the C2C got 3 teams in the tournament. Same as Centennial.

Mary Washington
Wisc.-Plattesville
Chris Newport

Muhles
Dips
Hop

Know nothing about C2C, but Muhles got in because they won the Cent. Conf. tournament.  Without that CC would have only had 2 teams this year. Hop and Dips were 2nd and 3rd regionally all 3 times behind Messiah.

[camosfan]

How Montclair State did not get an invite, that is the biggest surprise for me.

[Saint of Old]

There have always been surprises in the dance since the Prince chose Cinderella.
You just have to win man.
Once you leave it to the guys wearing suits, you can  get royally served.
Win the league and get the bid.
I mean, when the guys in the yellow jackets get snubbed, you know its dangerous to trust and hope.

That being said a 20-0-2 record should get you in any dance in the country.

[PaulNewman]

OK, some of Paul Newman's initial thoughts...

I understand that upsets happen and anybody in the tournament is capable of a freakish 1-0 result or loss in PKs.  That said, there is not a single team in Chicago's entire quad that can beat them...not a single one where you think "oh yeah, they could beat Chicago."  The Maroons could not have asked for a better draw.

Similarly, Amherst should not have a care in the world until at least the Elite 8 when they could face Tufts or Bowdoin.  No disrespect to SLU, but not a good draw for the Saints who could just get manhandled by the Mammoths, plus the Saints have to get by a pesky RWU first.  MW and OWU are nice teams but no real threat to Amherst who will no doubt be hosting the sectional.  I think Tufts will be very happy with their draw.  Bowdoin is at home so that's good for them but those could be a couple of difficult first games to get to Tufts in the Sweet 16.  Tufts is one of the only teams in the tournament that will have no trepidation at all about playing Amherst and will actually relish it. 

Stevens, if you get past the possibility of Middlebury in the 2nd round (no guarantee they beat Rowan), has a pretty awesome bracket from the standpoint that there is no one else overwhelming in the quad.  F&M, Cortland, JHU, and JCU are all good teams but they're not gonna strike fear in your heart, and none of them would be favored in a game versus Stevens.  Which also means, Midd has a fantastic draw if they get through the first weekend.  If Midd beats Rowan I would favor the Stevens-Midd winner to get to the Final Four.  That said, great opportunity also for F&M to finally break through and for the Hopkins-JCU winner.  Middlebury has two tough but very winnable games and I'm sure are thrilled to not see Amherst or Messiah standing in their way.

I think Messiah actually got a very good draw.  If they get Williams, they're getting the NESCAC least likely to bother them out of the five in the tournament, and they already know NYU and what to expect.  Can't remember if Messiah can or cannot host the sectional, but in the Sweet 16 if it's North Park I think NPU will be competitive but the style works to Messiah's advantage....up and down, good offense versus great offense.  Plus, NPU has to get through Rose-Hulman (not easy at all) and probably ONU where I would favor NPU.  The teams most likely to truly challenge Messiah are in the lower half of the quad and of course only one will emerge to see Messiah in the Elite 8, so while the overall quad had a lot of very highly rated teams most of them are in the lower half.  Assuming CWRU gets by Muhlenberg they could be a handful for W&L, but either will be a formidable foe in the Sweet 16.  I've already talked about Kenyon and Calvin...my complete homer take there is that this potential second round matchup is a travesty.  That's an Elite 8 level game.  CMU would love to get a crack at Kenyon but I think CMU could play Calvin 10 times and would lose at least 8 or 9 of them.

I will likely adjust my thinking a bit once all the info settles in but right now I see Chicago cruising to the Final Four, Amherst or Tufts going from that quad, the winner of Stevens-Midd if that happens, and if Rowan beats Midd, then between Stevens and the winner of JHU-JCU.  If Kenyon can get there I do believe they can challenge Messiah, but I'm guessing the only team that would truly cause the Falcons anxiety is Calvin.  In that regard, Calvin is a lot like Tufts.  They don't care where they play and they won't be intimidated or distracted by any psychological factors.  I also could see W&L or CWRU getting to the Elite 8 but I don't see either being able to handle Messiah. 

My quote for the day....Finally getting to the best part of the season means you're much, much closer to the worst.

[Saint of Old]

OK, some of Paul Newman's initial thoughts...

I understand that upsets happen and anybody in the tournament is capable of a freakish 1-0 result or loss in PKs.  That said, there is not a single team in Chicago's entire quad that can beat them...not a single one where you think "oh yeah, they could beat Chicago."  The Maroons could not have asked for a better draw.

Similarly, Amherst should not have a care in the world until at least the Elite 8 when they could face Tufts or Bowdoin.  No disrespect to SLU, but not a good draw for the Saints who could just get manhandled by the Mammoths, plus the Saints have to get by a pesky RWU first.  MW and OWU are nice teams but no real threat to Amherst who will no doubt be hosting the sectional.  I think Tufts will be very happy with their draw.  Bowdoin is at home so that's good for them but those could be a couple of difficult first games to get to Tufts in the Sweet 16.  Tufts is one of the only teams in the tournament that will have no trepidation at all about playing Amherst and will actually relish it. 

Stevens, if you get past the possibility of Middlebury in the 2nd round (no guarantee they beat Rowan), has a pretty awesome bracket from the standpoint that there is no one else overwhelming in the quad.  F&M, Cortland, JHU, and JCU are all good teams but they're not gonna strike fear in your heart, and none of them would be favored in a game versus Stevens.  Which also means, Midd has a fantastic draw if they get through the first weekend.  If Midd beats Rowan I would favor the Stevens-Midd winner to get to the Final Four.  That said, great opportunity also for F&M to finally break through and for the Hopkins-JCU winner.  Middlebury has two tough but very winnable games and I'm sure are thrilled to not see Amherst or Messiah standing in their way.

I think Messiah actually got a very good draw.  If they get Williams, they're getting the NESCAC least likely to bother them out of the five in the tournament, and they already know NYU and what to expect.  Can't remember if Messiah can or cannot host the sectional, but in the Sweet 16 if it's North Park I think NPU will be competitive but the style works to Messiah's advantage....up and down, good offense versus great offense.  Plus, NPU has to get through Rose-Hulman (not easy at all) and probably ONU where I would favor NPU.  The teams most likely to truly challenge Messiah are in the lower half of the quad and of course only one will emerge to see Messiah in the Elite 8, so while the overall quad had a lot of very highly rated teams most of them are in the lower half.  Assuming CWRU gets by Muhlenberg they could be a handful for W&L, but either will be a formidable foe in the Sweet 16.  I've already talked about Kenyon and Calvin...my complete homer take there is that this potential second round matchup is a travesty.  That's an Elite 8 level game.  CMU would love to get a crack at Kenyon but I think CMU could play Calvin 10 times and would lose at least 8 or 9 of them.

I will likely adjust my thinking a bit once all the info settles in but right now I see Chicago cruising to the Final Four, Amherst or Tufts going from that quad, the winner of Stevens-Midd if that happens, and if Rowan beats Midd, then between Stevens and the winner of JHU-JCU.  If Kenyon can get there I do believe they can challenge Messiah, but I'm guessing the only team that would truly cause the Falcons anxiety is Calvin.  In that regard, Calvin is a lot like Tufts.  They don't care where they play and they won't be intimidated or distracted by any psychological factors.  I also could see W&L or CWRU getting to the Elite 8 but I don't see either being able to handle Messiah. 

My quote for the day....Finally getting to the best part of the season means you're much, much closer to the worst.

Every time someone says no disrespect, rest assured the disrespect is coming in the next sentence.
I am happy for the teams that no one sees coming, worked will for last years' champion.

For people and teams that have experience in this thing they can tell you, you just can never see past your next game.
I'm old enough to see Messiah get tossed in the first round by a hungry team.
This entire NCAA championship won't come down to the best teams, but the HUNGRIEST ones.
You just have to eat 1 Meal at a time to even have a chance at this thing.

[PaulNewman]

Saint, I don't think that's fair.  I try to be as honest as I can, which I'm sure you've seen me do with my own team.  If you go with optimism while I lean towards pessimism, well, I wish I was more like you.  Getting beyond the eating and mystics, how do you see a possible Amherst-SLU matchup?  When you saw it were you pleased?

[Saint of Old]

I rate Amherst highly.
I was the first poster on this board to congratulate them on their NCAA win.

I dont think its a matter of optimism or pessimism.
Both these teams (if they meet) have 13-1-5 records and have played decent competition.
NESCAC is the champions league granted, but Oneonta/Cortland and the LL boys are no push overs either.

Which is why I say, when it comes to deep in the dance, or when certain teams play each other that have stars on their chest, its about the hungrier team. Who wants it more.
Trust me, I would love nothing more than Amherst and the entire country overlooking SLU for just a couple more weeks.