Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!

[northman]

I mean, does anyone think Hopkins wanted to tie Muhlenberg...or that W CT wanted to tie UMass-Boston....or Tufts and Bowdoin wanted to tie Williams and Conn?

Parking the bus is a very legitimate defensive strategy that is reinforced by the treatment of ties in winning percentage as 50/50 as opposed to 33% in the 3pt/1pt system. I think if you are being outplayed, playing for a tie is over-rewarded especially since we've made ties 50% easier this year.

Of their 10 ties, I'm too lazy to go check and see how often Williams was statistically dominant. But if I'm a coach, and I know my offense is... light, as Williams appeared all season (2 games where they scored more than twice, 6 games where they didn't score), then playing for a tie when equal or overmatched makes sense. As anemic as the #307 scoring offense in the country is, with 1.18 goals per game, I probably am not real interested in throwing players forward looking for a goal I'm unlikely to get even if I am the better team.

Fair enough.  I just doubt Williams went into the season saying let's go get 10 draws.  I picked the examples I did because they presumably had little to do with winning pct calculations as they were knockout games and in a couple of cases involved losing AQs, and of course in W Ct's case involved not being in the tournament.  And why do Amherst and SLU have 5 draws, and many others 7 or more?  It's also a pretty high-risk proposition....going for draws if in fact that is true means you're really chancing that you won't give up a fluke goal a few of those 10 times.

I sincerely doubt most college teams...and especially those of Williams's caliber...go into a season or an individual game thinking "let's assure ourselves of a tie".  Purely from an anecdotal standpoint, it certainly appears that the new 90 minute cap has led to significantly more ties this season.  If I had to guess, I would guess there's a subliminal factor at play...where a team that has registered a number of ties (let's take Williams as an example), begins to expect a tie as a likely outcome.  I have a feeling those expectations begin to creep in...

[jknezek]

I mean, does anyone think Hopkins wanted to tie Muhlenberg...or that W CT wanted to tie UMass-Boston....or Tufts and Bowdoin wanted to tie Williams and Conn?

Parking the bus is a very legitimate defensive strategy that is reinforced by the treatment of ties in winning percentage as 50/50 as opposed to 33% in the 3pt/1pt system. I think if you are being outplayed, playing for a tie is over-rewarded especially since we've made ties 50% easier this year.

Of their 10 ties, I'm too lazy to go check and see how often Williams was statistically dominant. But if I'm a coach, and I know my offense is... light, as Williams appeared all season (2 games where they scored more than twice, 6 games where they didn't score), then playing for a tie when equal or overmatched makes sense. As anemic as the #307 scoring offense in the country is, with 1.18 goals per game, I probably am not real interested in throwing players forward looking for a goal I'm unlikely to get even if I am the better team.

Fair enough.  I just doubt Williams went into the season saying let's go get 10 draws.  I picked the examples I did because they presumably had little to do with winning pct calculations as they were knockout games and in a couple of cases involved losing AQs, and of course in W Ct's case involved not being in the tournament.  And why do Amherst and SLU have 5 draws, and many others 7 or more?  It's also a pretty high-risk proposition....going for draws if in fact that is true means you're really chancing that you won't give up a fluke goal a few of those 10 times.

I know I played for a draw when I was younger. I know my coaches set up the team sometimes when outmatched to play for a draw. We see it in the professional leagues all the time.

Do you start the season aiming for 10 draws? No. But when you watch your team, and the tape on other teams, and you realize you have a very solid defense and a relatively anemic offense, then you hang back and look for a couple good opportunities to be aggressive, but you spend a lot more time neutral or defensive or playing negative instead of looking for the opening. You don't push forward as fast or as often, your players don't look to do it as much as habits settle in, and it gets harder and harder to push.

So you rack up the ties. And when ties are over-valued and easier to come by, the strategy is more effective. Do I think Williams started games with the intention to tie? No. But I think they started games knowing that defense was the priority and that scoring would either come or not, but the important thing was not to concede.

You can't lose if you don't concede... unless there are PKs... All season long, for a team in a conference that guarantees them a high SoS, racking up ties and losing only once got them in the tournament. Despite the fact that they hardly won (or scored).

[PaulNewman]

There also was no way to know if having that many ties would be disqualifying....and clearly many believe that should be disqualifying, so it's just hard to buy that Williams had some super-secret strategy to snare a bid.  That said, it seems perfectly legitimate to me to argue that 10 was disqualifying....just not sure that should be conflated with motivation.

[PaulNewman]

On this spectrum, Chicago might be closer to Williams than to Messiah.  Defense can be considered the foundation of a winning strategy, especially if relatively speaking one's defense is considered superior to one's offense.

[Planters Nuts]

I am only singling them out because on paper of the teams with the at large, the tie record is the most egregious!  My point is that after seeing what they did this year in order to qualify - what's to stop other teams, including others in NESCAC from deploying a similar strategy?  Schedule some top tier teams and park it for the tie.  I love sorting through some stats so I'll help out:

Williams Ties
0-0 vs Springfield > Williams 13 shots - Springfield 11
1-1 vs Babson > Williams 7 - Babson 17 (6 of the 7 shots in first half where they had the lead)
2-2 vs Tufts > Williams 13 - Tufts 9
0-0 vs Colby > William 8 - Colby 3
0-0 vs Amherst > Williams 6 - Amherst 13 (Amherst got red card in 55th minute)
2-2 vs Wheaton > Williams 7 - Wheaton 15
1-1 vs Wesleyan > William 4 - Weselyan 12
0-0 vs Hamilton > Williams 20 - Hamilton 17 (Hamilton got red card in 53 minute)
1-1 vs Tufts > Williams 11 - Tufts 9
0-0 vs Conn College > Williams 15 - Conn College - 10

In these tie games Williams outshot their opponent 6 out 10 games (was really hoping this would've been a tie too!!!)
Interestingly each of the ties that goals were scored, Williams did score first in all but one - the conference tournament game vs Tufts.

[jknezek]

On this spectrum, Chicago might be closer to Williams than to Messiah.  Defense can be considered the foundation of a winning strategy, especially if relatively speaking one's defense is considered superior to one's offense.

Nope. Messiah was the #1 ranked scoring offense (by a mile), UChicago 79th, Williams 307th. Williams isn't quite as close to dead last as Chicago is to first though if that helps you.

[northman]

On this spectrum, Chicago might be closer to Williams than to Messiah.  Defense can be considered the foundation of a winning strategy, especially if relatively speaking one's defense is considered superior to one's offense.

Atletico Madrid vs. Paris St. Germain?

[Hopkins92]

There are teams, ABSOLUTELY, that have an overall strategy of being cautious on offense and being lockdown, brutal defense.

At all levels, and D3 is certainly no exception. It's not that they go into games or a season with a desire for a ton of draws, but as has been pointed out... whether it's the overall philosophy of the coach, or the realization you don't have the horses up top to fly around... Lot's of team park the bus because that's playing the best odds to achieve a result.

[Maine Soccer Fan]

In WC group play the first rule is to not lose which is closely correlated to not conceding, especially the first goal.

Williams has shown that that strategy works in D3 when a team has a strong SoS to as well. For this year, anyway.

[PaulNewman]

On this spectrum, Chicago might be closer to Williams than to Messiah.  Defense can be considered the foundation of a winning strategy, especially if relatively speaking one's defense is considered superior to one's offense.

Nope. Messiah was the #1 ranked scoring offense (by a mile), UChicago 79th, Williams 307th. Williams isn't quite as close to dead last as Chicago is to first though if that helps you.

LOL, no, you described a defense first strategy.  That's Chicago.  Clearly Chicago is better, maybe much better, but they are focused on not allowing anyone to score first and foremost.

Again, I sort of get it, but just don't think this is all on Williams.  What do we do with Hopkins that have SEVEN draws?  They're hosting.  Yes, they have more wins but also played three more games.  And of all of Hopkins' 1-0 games how many of those could have been draws?

And the question about will other teams now adopt this "strategy" is a conflation pure and simple.  Again, there was and will be no way to know if having a bunch of ties will be disqualifying.  It's a confusion of outcome vs strategy and intent.  There are other criteria as we know.  And we also know that 10 ties in some conferences doesn't rate the same as 10 ties in others.

[PaulNewman]

On this spectrum, Chicago might be closer to Williams than to Messiah.  Defense can be considered the foundation of a winning strategy, especially if relatively speaking one's defense is considered superior to one's offense.

Nope. Messiah was the #1 ranked scoring offense (by a mile), UChicago 79th, Williams 307th. Williams isn't quite as close to dead last as Chicago is to first though if that helps you.

That's not what I meant by spectrum but OK.

[camosfan]

I am only singling them out because on paper of the teams with the at large, the tie record is the most egregious!  My point is that after seeing what they did this year in order to qualify - what's to stop other teams, including others in NESCAC from deploying a similar strategy?  Schedule some top tier teams and park it for the tie.  I love sorting through some stats so I'll help out:

Williams Ties
0-0 vs Springfield > Williams 13 shots - Springfield 11
1-1 vs Babson > Williams 7 - Babson 17 (6 of the 7 shots in first half where they had the lead)
2-2 vs Tufts > Williams 13 - Tufts 9
0-0 vs Colby > William 8 - Colby 3
0-0 vs Amherst > Williams 6 - Amherst 13 (Amherst got red card in 55th minute)
2-2 vs Wheaton > Williams 7 - Wheaton 15
1-1 vs Wesleyan > William 4 - Weselyan 12
0-0 vs Hamilton > Williams 20 - Hamilton 17 (Hamilton got red card in 53 minute)
1-1 vs Tufts > Williams 11 - Tufts 9
0-0 vs Conn College > Williams 15 - Conn College - 10

In these tie games Williams outshot their opponent 6 out 10 games (was really hoping this would've been a tie too!!!)
Interestingly each of the ties that goals were scored, Williams did score first in all but one - the conference tournament game vs Tufts.

Do you think NYU and CMU are more deserving of a spot than Williams?

[SierraFD3soccer]

There are teams, ABSOLUTELY, that have an overall strategy of being cautious on offense and being lockdown, brutal defense.

At all levels, and D3 is certainly no exception. It's not that they go into games or a season with a desire for a ton of draws, but as has been pointed out... whether it's the overall philosophy of the coach, or the realization you don't have the horses up top to fly around... Lot's of team park the bus because that's playing the best odds to achieve a result.

Agreed. Horses up front, very much lacking in D3.  Also in many cases, not necessary in this new D3 environment. A lot easier playing decent defense and eking out a win or tie.  In part, one can argue that the NCAA set up this scenario as it is not allowing OT in the regular season.  Large bus parking lots around the country.

FYI, son's former club teammates at Navy are in its league final with a record of 6-4-9.  At the end of the season, they were 4th (3-1-5 in conference) in the conference. May be the first time a team with 9 or even 10 ties makes the D1 tournament.  They are actually playing the 6th seed in the final. So not all D3.

[camosfan]

Good efficient strikers are rare among players that have been heavily coached, players develop those skills on playgrounds in informal settings, so draws will be a major part of the game here. Scoreless draws and 1-0 results!

[Planters Nuts]

On paper I would say NYU has the edge over Williams.  I am certainly appreciative in the different views presented here but respectfully, almost no amount of reasoning will ever convince me that WestConn sitting at home right now isn't criminal conduct by the NCAA Committee and powers that be.

Sure they had a couple 'cupcake' teams on the schedule but they didn't play nobody's.  An undefeated team is sitting at home scratching their heads wondering what all their hard work this year meant.  I did not watch their conference final and I fully understand they should've taken care of business, but that doesn't mean one blemish in PKS in 22 games should have you sitting out at home.  They didn't lose a single game and yet they were even a discussion by the committee! Yikes.