ODAC

jknezek · October 20, 2024, 05:02:04 PM

He's going to need a few more this week to keep W&L in the mix, but that was a decent road result!

NokeAlum15 · October 24, 2024, 09:57:16 AM

What a battle last night in Lexington! Noke and W&L always seem to come down to the last minute(s) as it did last night. And in true rivalry fashion some controversy with W&L's goal to tie things up.

Another Mom · October 24, 2024, 06:26:22 PM

Glad to hear I wasn't the only person watching last night. Roanoke's defense was very strong.

jknezek · October 26, 2024, 08:09:28 PM

Well W&L goes 1-0-2 through the Roanoke, Lynchburg, VA Wes stretch. Probably needed 2-0-1 or better to earn home field in the ODAC tournament.

We will see how the ODAC finishes with a huge knot at the top.

Another Mom · October 27, 2024, 08:04:42 AM

The W&L boys played their hearts out in the 2nd half.

jknezek · October 28, 2024, 11:19:25 AM

There are some huge games in the ODAC this week, but not necessarily for the most common reasons. Yes, Lynchburg, H-SC, W&L and Va Wes all probably need to win to have a hope of claiming home field for the playoffs. But Lynchburg and W&L also desperately need a 10th win for NPI purposes. At 10 wins, you can start dropping wins that hurt your NPI, providing a boost to your score by winning a few games in the ODAC tournament.

For example, a couple more wins would see W&L dropping wins against Guilford and Ferrum from their calculation, boosting their overall score. Same for Lynchburg, who could drop wins against Randolph and Averett.

In the matchup of two contenders, Va Wes has to travel to H-SC, a team that is looking to host the tournament. H-SC has once again feasted on the ODAC's unbalanced schedule. But with losses to Covenant and Lynchburg, this is really their last chance to get a signature win. Best win right now might be Roanoke, a team that currently sits sixth in the ODAC after a hot start.

Va Wes's conference slip up to Roanoke is proving costly, but they hold a quality win over Lynchburg and a few other strong early season results. The loss to W&L last week puts them in a much more precarious position, but a win over H-SC would keep them in the top 4, hosting the first two rounds, and possibly push them to the top depending on other results. A loss could see them passed by Shenandoah and left travelling for round 2.

Lynchburg travels to Shenandoah. Shenandoah was picked to finish 5th in the preseason and they have lived up to expectations so far, sitting fifth in the conference. A win here might get them to top 4 status and hosting the first two rounds of the ODAC. Ties with W&L and Roanoke highlight a schedule that was fairly week, with the exception of a beatdown by RUC and a loss to Dickinson.

Lynchburg sits in the pole position to host the ODAC. Tied on points atop the conference with H-SC, but arguably the easier final game and holding the tie-breaking win over H-SC.

Of the four teams with a legitimate shot to win full hosting rights, W&L has the easiest game, travelling to Randolph-Macon. The YellowJackets have already lost to Va Wes, Lynchburg, H-SC and Roanoke. But the YellowJackets sit 7th in the conference. Normally there would be a push here to make the tournament, but holding the tie-breaker over the 9th team, EMU, makes them mathematically safe. They are fighting for position, and staying ahead of Bridgewater for the final spot, playing for a tie might be enough. Then again, Bridgewater takes on Roanoke starting just after the W&L-R-MC game, and a win for R-MC paired with a Bridgewater win would push the YellowJackets into sixth place.

Should be a fun final set of conference games for the conference leaders. Not too much drama at the bottom of the table, except EMU can pass Bridgewater for that final spot with a win over beleaguered Ferrum and a Bridgewater loss at Roanoke.

Freddyfud · October 28, 2024, 12:12:02 PM

Quote from: jknezek on October 28, 2024, 11:19:25 AMThere are some huge games in the ODAC this week, but not necessarily for the most common reasons. Yes, Lynchburg, H-SC, W&L and Va Wes all probably need to win to have a hope of claiming home field for the playoffs. But Lynchburg and W&L also desperately need a 10th win for NPI purposes. At 10 wins, you can start dropping wins that hurt your NPI, providing a boost to your score by winning a few games in the ODAC tournament.

Not proclaiming to be an NPI expert. In fact there probably is no such thing. But I interpret the Adj W/L column a designate for the 10 win minimum. If so all of those teams except H-SC have 10 or more wins in that column presumably due to ties counting as half a win. What I don't understand is Lynchburg and W&L have the same amount of wins and ties (records are 9-2-4 and 9-3-4, respectively) but somehow Lynchburg has 11 wins in the Adjusted W/L column but W&L only has 10? If a team has 11 wins in Adjusted W/L column when do they drop one? Why is this done for W&L already? So many questions.

In any case your point would be valid for the remaining games as opportunities to improve the Quality Win Bonus I guess. Just pointing out it appears most of them already reached the magic 10 mark.

Of course I could be completely wrong about the adjusted W/L column altogether.

jknezek · October 28, 2024, 12:17:54 PM

Quote from: Freddyfud on October 28, 2024, 12:12:02 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 28, 2024, 11:19:25 AMThere are some huge games in the ODAC this week, but not necessarily for the most common reasons. Yes, Lynchburg, H-SC, W&L and Va Wes all probably need to win to have a hope of claiming home field for the playoffs. But Lynchburg and W&L also desperately need a 10th win for NPI purposes. At 10 wins, you can start dropping wins that hurt your NPI, providing a boost to your score by winning a few games in the ODAC tournament.
Not proclaiming to be an NPI expert. In fact there probably is no such thing. But I interpret the Adj W/L column a designate for the 10 win minimum. If so all of those teams except H-SC have 10 or more wins in that column presumably due to ties counting as half a win. What I don't understand is Lynchburg and W&L have the same amount of wins and ties (records are 9-2-4 and 9-3-4, respectively) but somehow Lynchburg has 11 wins in the Adjusted W/L column but W&L only has 10? If a team has 11 wins in Adjusted W/L column when do they drop one? Why is this done for W&L already? So many questions.

In any case your point would be valid for the remaining games as opportunities to improve the Quality Win Bonus I guess. Just pointing out it appears most of them already reached the magic 10 mark.

Of course I could be completely wrong about the adjusted W/L column altogether.

Honestly, I have no idea. You could be completely right. I thought they needed 10 wins. Either way, more wins means more dropped games at this point, as I suspect all the teams have games at the bottom that will be worse than the final opponent or almost anyone they face in the ODAC tournament. I guess EMU as an 8th seed might be a dropped game if they sneak their way in over Bridgewater.

I'd have to spend a lot more time with the NPI to figure it out, and since it all shifts around until after the last tournament game is played, I find it hard to care too much. Seems to me like if any combination of both W&L, Lynchburg, or Va Wes making the ODAC finals, the ODAC is likely to get 2 teams in.

H-SC would be more of stretch, but a quality win in the second round of the tournament, plus a tie/win over Va Wes Wednesday, might get them in if they miss the AQ. Lot depends on all the other conferences of course.

We will see. It's a whole new world with NPI.

Another Mom · October 28, 2024, 03:29:52 PM

Glad to see I am not alone, on both the confusion and the disinclination to spend the time needed to figure the NPI situation out.

jknezek · October 28, 2024, 03:55:08 PM

Quote from: Another Mom on October 28, 2024, 03:29:52 PMGlad to see I am not alone, on both the confusion and the disinclination to spend the time needed to figure the NPI situation out.

Nope. Win out and there is no reason to know. But the old system was even less transparent. I don't know if this is better or worse, it will take a few years to sort out. I suspect I'll get interested one of these days and dig in just so I know and because I tend to follow all W&L sports as an alum, not just one as a parent tends to. But for now, I'm hoping for the AQ. They need to take care of R-MC, see how the chips fall, and then dig in for 3 games. That removes all doubt and probably moves them a long way up in the rankings.

jknezek · October 30, 2024, 10:38:07 PM

As I thought, W&L needed one more win to claim home field. Congratulations to the Hornets. Just for fun:

Preseason Coaches Poll:
Lynchburg
W&L
Va Wes
Roanoke
Shenandoah
H-SC
R-MC
Averett
Bridgewater
EMU

Tournament Seedings:

Lynchburg
W&L
Va Wes
H-SC
Roanoke
Shenandoah
R-MC
EMU

Overperformance belongs to H-SC, up a couple from the prediction but I still think this is as much about the ODAC's unbalanced schedule as anything else. Roanoke and Shenandoah had slightly harder conference schedules and fell just below H-SC.

EMU snuck in over Bridgewater, who I thought was a significantly better team. But EMU held the h2h. EMU tied Lynchburg 0-0 in possibly the Hornet's worst blemish of the season. One of those weird games where Lynchburg had 29 shots, 11 on goal, and couldn't score. EMU had 0 shots. I doubt this one plays out anywhere near the same way.

W&L and R-MC are getting a quick turnaround rematch. This time in Lexington, but that's always interesting and weird things can happen in back 2 backs. W&L needs a couple wins to bring an at-large into possibility, so slipping up in a back 2 back would be devastating.

Va Wes and Shenandoah will be facing off for the first time, again thanks to the ODAC's unbalanced schedule. This could be interesting. Shenandoah put up a huge fight against Lynchburg tonight in a very well-balanced game. Va Wes started the season strong, but I have been less impressed down the stretch. I could see Shenandoah winning this one, but it's an almost 4 hour trip from Shenandoah to Virginia Beach in no traffic, and you never know how that trip will play out.

H-SC and Roanoke. Roanoke is another team I just haven't loved down the stretch. They've gone 1-0-4 in the last 5. H-SC beat them 2-0 in Farmville early in October, but it was a closer game than the score implies. That's probably H-SC's best win on a fairly weak schedule. I don't have much faith in the Tigers and suspect Roanoke will do enough to win this one.

jknezek · November 02, 2024, 04:47:07 PM

W&L deserved better in that first half. All over R-MC but just couldn't push one in. Several missed opportunities, a couple of clutch saves. 0-0. R-MC really hasn't had anything, but they've been stout when scrambling at the back.

Another Mom · November 02, 2024, 10:17:54 PM

W&L played well.

jknezek · November 03, 2024, 08:59:31 AM

Well... All the chalk held in the first round despite my thoughts. H-ScC took out Roanoke and VA Wes seemed to cruise over Shenandoah.

W&L couldn't find the net in a game they dominated in the closest contest my score.

My thoughts are Lynchburg will make the field regardless of the game against H-SC. H-SC, however, is playing for their season and probably needs the AQ to make the tournament.

The winner of VA Wes at W&L probably makes the field, regardless of the final. The loser will be on pins and needles and likely out.

A lot will depend on other results of course, but the ODAC looks like a 2 bid league to me. It's possible if H-SC gets the AQ there would be three bids.

It's going to be an interesting ODAC final four. I will admit, I expected Noke to be there over the Tigers.

SierraFD3soccer · November 03, 2024, 09:40:34 AM

Quote from: jknezek on November 03, 2024, 08:59:31 AMWell... All the chalk held in the first round despite my thoughts. H-ScC took out Roanoke and VA Wes seemed to cruise over Shenandoah.

W&L couldn't find the net in a game they dominated in the closest contest my score.

My thoughts are Lynchburg will make the field regardless of the game against H-SC. H-SC, however, is playing for their season and probably needs the AQ to make the tournament.

The winner of VA Wes at W&L probably makes the field, regardless of the final. The loser will be on pins and needles and likely out.

A lot will depend on other results of course, but the ODAC looks like a 2 bid league to me. It's possible if H-SC gets the AQ there would be three bids.

It's going to be an interesting ODAC final four. I will admit, I expected Noke to be there over the Tigers.

Definitely as to 2 and a possible 3. According to the NPI and what was said on the NPI board, the 41st ranked which is what VAW is now, but that can obviously change I am guessing. I have no idea as to what the playoffs mean other than it determines the AQ. Also some conferences still had reg. season games this weekend and maybe jump over VAW based on these results. If the person on the NPI is correct, then VAW is a true bubble team.
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/39872?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit