2023 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

I'm always interested (and paranoid about) the impact of psychological factors like pressure, high expectations, substantial success perennially or almost perennially, or lack thereof, etc on tournament runs and eventual national champions.

At least in the past decade there have been two types imo ...

1) Teams like Messiah, Amherst and after winning two Tufts thereafter who expect to win or at least seriously challenge for a title year after year...and teams like Chicago last year that had been close and are a/the title favorite wire to wire.

And...

2) Teams that seemingly come out of nowhere (which in hindsight probably is a distortion) and are riding a good wave with minimal pressures. Here I would cite Tufts for first title when they barely made the tournament...and Conn College in 2021.

A third category, naturally larger because only four teams reach the Final Four, consists of teams repeatedly knocking on the door but not breaking through with a history of seasons ending in heartbreak (I know, every end is heartbreaking). A year after Kenyon lost in Elite 8 to Calvin, the Owls waxed Trinity 4-0 in a Sweet 16 tilt and Coach Brown allegedly said to a Kenyon SID guy "we've got to win tomorrow." And of course they lost in Elite 8 to Tufts the next day on a flukey kind of goal (just like with Calvin the prior year) in the 109th minute.

So, who do I see in this category this year? First and foremost, Middlebury. The Panthers are heavy favorites but the road is still treacherous and the self-imposed pressure will be intense.  Also... Cortland, F&M, St Olaf, Kenyon, Hopkins, Bowdoin, Montclair, Christopher Newport, Trinity (TX), etc

[PaulNewman]

Every time you think you've considered everything you realize you haven't.

I had ignored GAC after a bad stretch and no appearance in the regional rankings.  Had no clue GAC would be 10-3-6 and very competitive RvR.... especially after beating Carleton today in Northfield 1-0.  Definitely at large material if don't win conference final versus St Olaf or Macalester.

And another Pool C is taken...by Carleton.

[College Soccer Observer]

Every time you think you've considered everything you realize you haven't.

I had ignored GAC after a bad stretch and no appearance in the regional rankings.  Had no clue GAC would be 10-3-6 and very competitive RvR.... especially after beating Carleton today in Northfield 1-0.  Definitely at large material if don't win conference final versus St Olaf or Macalester.

And another Pool C is taken...by Carleton.

I would hold off on calling them a lock for Pool C.  Their record vs ranked is now 2-2-0, and their SOS of .543 would put them behind 6 of the 7 teams in Region VII, for example.  I think they deserve it, but we will see what shakes out.

[paclassic89]

re GAC:  How many times has a team not been regionally ranked in the 3rd rankings and then received a pool C?  Isn't that exceedingly rare?

[PaulNewman]

Every time you think you've considered everything you realize you haven't.

I had ignored GAC after a bad stretch and no appearance in the regional rankings.  Had no clue GAC would be 10-3-6 and very competitive RvR.... especially after beating Carleton today in Northfield 1-0.  Definitely at large material if don't win conference final versus St Olaf or Macalester.

And another Pool C is taken...by Carleton.

I would hold off on calling them a lock for Pool C.  Their record vs ranked is now 2-2-0, and their SOS of .543 would put them behind 6 of the 7 teams in Region VII, for example.  I think they deserve it, but we will see what shakes out.

Yeah, lock maybe was too strong, and certainly not a lock on the level of Messiah, MW, Midd, etc....but given the record and two ranked wins I think they're pretty safe.  Did they beat GAC in the regular season?  So if GAC gets ranked (very strong possibility) then RvR would jump to 3-3?

[PaulNewman]

re GAC:  How many times has a team not been regionally ranked in the 3rd rankings and then received a pool C?  Isn't that exceedingly rare?

Definitely rare.  Could be wrong but teams seem more closely clustered than in some prior years.  Like I think GAC's resume now looks better than Loras'.

10-3-6 looks a lot better than last week's 8-3-6 too.  Strong SoS.  Now 2-2-3 (I think) on RvR.  Almost identical to Babson except for less ranked wins.  And like I argued for Denison, GAC would be #2 in region 2.

GAC will have a decent chance against rival St Olaf (if the Oles maintain lead on Macalester) so Pool C may become irrelevant for them but if needed I think they at least have climbed on to the bubble.

[SKUD]

PN are you charting who you think will be the Pool C teams, assuming conference tournaments play out somewhat as expected?

[PaulNewman]

PN are you charting who you think will be the Pool C teams, assuming conference tournaments play out somewhat as expected?

I think I did that a few pages back...not sure if in this thread or another one.

Congrats on the win today!

[PaulNewman]

Congratulations to the four OAC teams who played tonight.  The intensity of both OAC semis was outstanding with both going 110 minutes and to PKs.  All four walk away with a "ranked" draw fwiw.  The defending up and down and all over the fields over 110 minutes is what impressed me the most.   All of those very talented teams being held scoreless is phenomenal.  Otterbein and ONU move on but JCU and Mt Union were just as good.  In all seriousness, the OAC has got something going with their top 5-6 schools, and tonight's semis imo were as good as you will see from any conference in the country.

[Coach Jeff]

Congratulations to the four OAC teams who played tonight.  The intensity of both OAC semis was outstanding with both going 110 minutes and to PKs.  All four walk away with a "ranked" draw fwiw.  The defending up and down and all over the fields over 110 minutes is what impressed me the most.   All of those very talented teams being held scoreless is phenomenal.  Otterbein and ONU move on but JCU and Mt Union were just as good.  In all seriousness, the OAC has got something going with their top 5-6 schools, and tonight's semis imo were as good as you will see from any conference in the country.

Wondering your thoughts on JCU and Mt Union are the both dancing, one or are they both on the bubble???  At my son HS game was unable to catch any of the games.

[PaulNewman]

Congratulations to the four OAC teams who played tonight.  The intensity of both OAC semis was outstanding with both going 110 minutes and to PKs.  All four walk away with a "ranked" draw fwiw.  The defending up and down and all over the fields over 110 minutes is what impressed me the most.   All of those very talented teams being held scoreless is phenomenal.  Otterbein and ONU move on but JCU and Mt Union were just as good.  In all seriousness, the OAC has got something going with their top 5-6 schools, and tonight's semis imo were as good as you will see from any conference in the country.

Wondering your thoughts on JCU and Mt Union are the both dancing, one or are they both on the bubble???  At my son HS game was unable to catch any of the games.

Just my gut reaction, personal opinion...I think JCU is pretty safe and Mt Union may be on the bubble.  Biggest concern is whether 7 teams could get in Region 7 which I think would be unprecedented (but it's also the first time I've seen all of them deserving).  Everything is so close in Region 7 it's really hard to say...and hard to say who else might drop...and that's before considering Denison who may enter the final rankings.  All that said, and without looking at numbers this late, compare Mt Union with Carleton, Lynchburg, LVC, etc.

[PaulNewman]

OK, a little closer look in response to the Region VII questions/comments and focused on Mt Union...

First and foremost, and whether fair or unfair, Mt Union in the 3rd RR came in at #7 (last spot in Region VII rankings), and there's no strong reason to move them up for the final, final rankings because their only result since then is the draw last night with ONU.  Last night hurt them most because now they don't get the benefit of playing Otterbein which even with a draw (and not winning in PKs) or loss would have provided a nice boost for the SoS which is the biggest (only) weakness for the Purple Raiders.  Also having to play Marietta in the conference tourney really kept the SoS depressed and basically they needed the ONU game just to level out the Marietta effect so ultimately ended the week right around where they started.

Here's an example of what the cmtes will be looking at (estimates certainly not exact)....

12-5-1/3-3-1/.605....no games left

13-1-4/1-1-2/.550ish....conference final left

14-3-2/2-3-1/.565....conference final left and so could end 14-4-2/2-4-1/.565

16-2-2/3-2-1/.525...no games left

15-2-1/2-1/.555...no games left but scenario where changes to 15-2-1/3-2/.555

8-3-3/1-2-3/.605ish...one game left with unranked team, so could end 9-3-3/1-2-3/.605ish with outside chance a team they beat gets ranked and RvR would go to 2-2-3

I'll stop there for now and folks can absorb how they would rank order these six teams...and maybe assume four of them get bids....who would you leave out?

Humility admission....yes, you read that right...I would not even attempt the exercise suggested above. Too hard for me.

[PaulNewman]

I realize this is sort of obvious but almost nothing underscores razor thin margins between teams better than two very evenly played 0-0 draws after 110 min each decided by PKs in high stakes conference semifinal action.

[PaulNewman]

OK, a little closer look in response to the Region VII questions/comments and focused on Mt Union...

First and foremost, and whether fair or unfair, Mt Union in the 3rd RR came in at #7 (last spot in Region VII rankings), and there's no strong reason to move them up for the final, final rankings because their only result since then is the draw last night with ONU.  Last night hurt them most because now they don't get the benefit of playing Otterbein which even with a draw (and not winning in PKs) or loss would have provided a nice boost for the SoS which is the biggest (only) weakness for the Purple Raiders.  Also having to play Marietta in the conference tourney really kept the SoS depressed and basically they needed the ONU game just to level out the Marietta effect so ultimately ended the week right around where they started.

Here's an example of what the cmtes will be looking at (estimates certainly not exact)....

12-5-1/3-3-1/.605....no games left

13-1-4/1-1-2/.550ish....conference final left

14-3-2/2-3-1/.565....conference final left and so could end 14-4-2/2-4-1/.565

16-2-2/3-2-1/.525...no games left

15-2-1/2-1/.555...no games left but scenario where changes to 15-2-1/3-2/.555

8-3-3/1-2-3/.605ish...one game left with unranked team, so could end 9-3-3/1-2-3/.605ish with outside chance a team they beat gets ranked and RvR would go to 2-2-3

I'll stop there for now and folks can absorb how they would rank order these six teams...and maybe assume four of them get bids....who would you leave out?

Humility admission....yes, you read that right...I would not even attempt the exercise suggested above. Too hard for me.

Here's an easier task while you're in the waiting room at the dental office....

Match up the six profiles to the six teams without looking anything up.

[SKUD]

PN I would rather have the committee take a lesson from Kant and put on their Veil of ignorance.