2023 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Trial run...wanna test out what happens if I allot 25 minutes or less to going around the horn...

The UAA kind of messes up reviews by region, so off the top let me say that the UAA has fallen further behind NESCAC.  Chicago has separated from the rest of the UAA...with imo considerable distance between the Maroons and then, who?  NYU?  Rochester?  NYU did hand Chicago it's only blemish of the 2022 season in the much ballyhooded battle of D3's women head coaches, but still don't trust them in huge spots.  The superstar for the Violets needs to be more of a leader, but can he do that?  I will say that the UAA is the conference most likely to see a team flip from the top to the cellar very quickly, and vice-versa.  Brandeis went to two Final Fours in the last decade and found itself alone in the basement last year.  Btw, how about that "dine and dash" move by Stich with the trophy packed in her luggage?

Region 1 and 2....NESCAC, NESCAC, NESCAC...I counted off five teams -- Amherst, Tufts, Williams, Bowdoin, Middlebury -- and realized I hadn't even gotten to the national champ from 2 years ago.  So also Conn Coll with a ton of talent looking to rebound, and then Wesleyan and Hamilton making big noise until stumbling towards the end.  Colby and Bates can get better each year and still find moving up a couple of spots formidable.  And finally, Trinity (CT).  Babson is the perhaps the biggest non-NESCAC name that sticks out.  Eyes will be on Western CT, a team that went undefeated and still couldn't make the tournament.  Western CT bolstered the schedule with Vassar, Wesleyan and Williams, but the Wolves would be better off losing a few and winning the conference AQ.  Will Emerson follow up on a surprisingly strong season?  Doubtful.  Maybe MIT, WPI, or Coast Guard stepping up?  What other "mid-major" will force themselves into the mix?  St Joe's (ME) or the Connecticut version.  Johnson and Wales appears to have a very soft schedule.  Endicott often seems like a sleeper.

In Region 3 it's Oneonta, Cortland, Rochester, and SLU.  No disrespect to Vassar, who could win the LL, but going deep seems unlikely.  Another SUNYAC could emerge, but your guess is as good or better than mine in terms of who that might be.  Brockport and New Paltz had their moments and iirc some of us thought Brockport deserved a bid last year.

In Regions 4 and 5, Messiah is the biggest dog and should be a top 3-5 team nationally all season.  Otherwise, I think Stevens gets the nod over NYU and Montclair St mainly just because I trust Stevens more.  Rowan always seems to be in the mix.  F&M and Hopkins should duel in the Centennial and be right there with Stevens looking up at the Falcons.  Is Catholic closer to all of the above or to the rest of the pack?  Gotta see more from the Cardinals before I slot them at or near the top tier.  Another team or three will emerge but I've got no clue who they might be.

Region 6 is Washington & Lee's territory.  Can Mary Washington duplicate last year's stunning run?  Who could have predicted them getting through OWU, Amherst, and Bowdoin to reach the Final Four, especially with the last two played at Amherst?  Christopher Newport and Lynchburg will hover around the top 15-25 range most of the season.  Who else?  Would be great to see a Sewanee or Rhodes take another big step, or maybe Centre or Emory are rejuvenated.  I see VWU, Oglethorpe, and Covenant as spoilers more than sleepers.

Region 7 is basically the NCAC and OAC with a dash of CMU and RHIT/Hanover.  Kenyon, OWU, and Denison should lead the NCAC with one of the US-231 Indiana squads (DePauw and Wabash) looking to crash the party.  In the the OAC, it's JCU, ONU, and Otterbein.  CMU is hard to predict, but difficult to be too optimistic when they should not have made the tourney last year which was confirmed by a 1st round 5-0 shellacking at the hands of mighty Calvin. 

Speaking of Calvin, among Region 8 programs, the Knights should be right there with Chicago and North Park as threats to Messiah and NESCAC heavyweights.  North Central would appear to be the only other Region 8 outfit with a chance to displace of the Big Three.

In Region 9, I'm gonna give the nod to Gustavus Adolphus.  St Olaf with strong returning talent is a big wild card given an unexpected coaching change.  St John's might be a sleeper, and we're all on pins and needles waiting to see how the Blugolds of UWEC fare with a bigger target on their back.  Luther and Loras should dominate the American Rivers Conf but will either be good enough to trouble the star programs in Region 8.

For Region 10, see @kuiper.

And....I went 13 minutes over lol.

[PaulNewman]

Any updates on D3soccer.com?  Gone?  New owner?  Can we assume the scoreboard and daily game schedule with teams and times will not be operable?  Will the site remain accessible as it stands now in terms of finding historical information?

Bumping this since got stuck at bottom of page.

[stlawus]

Simple Coach needs to get PN on the Youtube channel soon, he's about to burst at the seams!   Great stuff as always PN, can tell you're just as excited as me for the season to start. 

Not much there I disagree with.  I could quibble about Vassar I suppose, but everything in there checks out.  You can't call me biased after the take I'm about to make, as right now I see Amherst as betting odds favorite down the stretch.  They had a lot of sophomores last year who were key contributors, and bring back most.  It can be difficult replacing leadership but they have the talent and arguably the best recruit of the cycle.

[PaulNewman]

Simple Coach needs to get PN on the Youtube channel soon, he's about to burst at the seams!   Great stuff as always PN, can tell you're just as excited as me for the season to start. 

Not much there I disagree with.  I could quibble about Vassar I suppose, but everything in there checks out.  You can't call me biased after the take I'm about to make, as right now I see Amherst as betting odds favorite down the stretch.  They had a lot of sophomores last year who were key contributors, and bring back most.  It can be difficult replacing leadership but they have the talent and arguably the best recruit of the cycle.

@stlawus, yes, I assume we experience a similar dread when that last second ticks off our team's season and you realize you never want to feel that pain again while simultaneously lamenting the wait for another season.

I do find the suggestion that folks post less a little bizarre. Well, I get wanting me to shut up, but in general when the total number of participants (and viewers) is relatively small with rather limited activity big picture I would think more in this instance is more than less.

At any rate, I meant to mention in the longer review post that not having Mr.Right here is another big loss.  I say that knowing he wasn't ever really fond of me, and to be fair, I didn't send him a Xmas card every year either.  That said, and despite my love/hate psychosocial ambivalence about NESCAC as an American cultural phenomenon, I doubt NESCAC has ever been better at least in terms of depth.  He would love breaking down all the teams, including the bottom ones.  But any conference having at least 5-6 credible national contenders provides a rich database for a talented commentator like Mr.Right. 

Maybe he'll pop in when least expected with a full breakdown of the week's NESCAC tilts.

Btw, I probably am wrong about Vassar.  And that's mostly because I think of Vassar as closer to Oberlin and Reed than NESCAC and UAA schools in terms of vibe...which means athletics are even less important than they are at other higher end academic D3s.  I'm amazed that Vassar does as well as it does.

[Kuiper]

Since @PaulNewman asked nicely (although I'm tempted to quote Paul Newman from the "Go WEST" thread - "I hear the internet works pretty well on the [East] Coast too"  ), I'll chip in on Region X:

St. Thomas is the odds-on favorite to be the top team in Region X.  They return every regular starter from the team that lost to Chicago in Round 3 of the NCAA Tourney other than Ayomide Salako.  That is a big loss -- after all, he had 10 goals and 8 assists last year, starting 17 out of 20 games -- but that was only good enough for the third highest point total on the team behind Taty Aleman (20 goals and 5 assists) and Daniel Castro (17 goals and 4 assists), both of whom are back.  Salako's loss might be more in terms of serving as a big, burly, target forward pivot who occupied a central defender or two and allowed Aleman and Castro to have freedom to do their magic.  The most promising long-term replacement on the roster could be freshman Daniel Vargas, a physical forward from Katy, Texas who scored 17 goals for his high school team last year and was named second team All-Region.  It may depend upon how quickly he can adjust to the college game as to whether he plays much of a role this year though.  More immediately, seniors Ian Alvarez (6 goals and 3 assists) and Dany Ramirez (1 goal and 5 assists) could pick up some of Salako's goals and assists, even if they play different roles at forward.  Another possible impactful addition might be Leonardo Mansur Scarparo, a Brazilian transfer from DII Notre Dame College in Ohio.  Regardless, this is nit picking.  St. Thomas is stacked.  They might beat themselves by whining to the referees and getting into scraps with opponents, but they won't likely be beat by a more talented or experienced squad.  Trinity could reclaim its mojo and challenge St. Thomas in the SCAC (especially if Michael Meese recovers his pre-injury form), but every other top Region X team lost some of its front-line players and will be counting on players to make a leap.

There's both a wildcard and a couple of additional dark horses in Socal.  The wildcard is C-M-S, which could pull itself together after last year's truncated season.  It has talent, both returning and new, a new coach in Edward Cartee with lots of championship-level experience at Trinity, and should be plenty motivated.  The darkhorse is Cal Lutheran, which has seven returning seniors back as grad students.  I don't think that it has a top-end scorer to dominate the way you need to in order to win comfortably, but their experience throughout the lineup might allow them to manage a lot of games and rise above in close games.  One additional darkhorse might be Pomona-Pitzer.  They have some young players who were really strong and in their first scrimmage this pre-season, a big freshman forward from Bend, Oregon had a hat trick to beat a local community college 4-2 on the road.  I wouldn't read too much into that result (a Labor Day weekend trip to Texas will provide an early test), but if he proved to be the real deal, they might make noise in the SCIAC.  It's probably a year or two early for them though.  Oxy is the more likely immediate challenger to the historic Redlands-CMS leaders this year (with the caveat that I haven't see Redlands' roster yet this year).

In the Northwest, Willamette loses its leading scorer Pierce Galloway, but Jett Starr returns as the second leading scorer and it returns basically its entire defense (which was inexperienced last year) plus its starting GK.  Pacific Lutheran returns its top two scorers, Craig Johnson and Trevor Thompson, but loses a few of its outside defenders.  So, it feels like both teams may be strong in the area where the other team is strong and neither side is set up to take advantage of the other's weakness.  I also don't see anyone challenging them.

[PaulNewman]

Suggestion to think about....

Kuiper covers Reg 10

Sager does Reg 8 and maybe 9 or splits 9 (like Sager takes MIAA and Kuiper American Rivers?)

I take Reg 7 and maybe temporarily 1 (or split 1 with  OldNed, College Soccer Observer, etc)

jknezek or whoever jknezek thinks could do Reg 6

Some combo of a Messiah person, SC, Hop92, Ejay, paclassics, etc covering Reg 5 and 4

The SLU/LL crew on Reg 3

Maybe a Babson person and/or talk blooter442 into a return tour of duty for Reg 2

The above is just a mock suggestion...

It is far easier to talk about 1 or 2 regions halfway intelligently than 9 or 10...

[Caz Bombers]

Btw, I probably am wrong about Vassar.  And that's mostly because I think of Vassar as closer to Oberlin and Reed than NESCAC and UAA schools in terms of vibe...which means athletics are even less important than they are at other higher end academic D3s.  I'm amazed that Vassar does as well as it does.

Vassar has only even attempted to seriously compete for approximately 15 years, prior to the mid-00s I would have agreed with you. That is the place that Bard is in now - institutionally they mostly forget they even have intercollegiate athletics, let alone support them appropriately. I think Vassar has a much higher ceiling with its academic rankings and $$ in the bank - NESCAC-level success. They will need to sweet talk some of their wealthy alums into donating to the Brewers cause.

[calvin_grad]

Calvin appears to have a brand new field (artificial?).  The schedule looks favorable as well.  On the road for Chicago and Ohio Northern but get OWU and JCU at home.

Yes, unfortunately Calvin does have a new field and it is artificial turf.  I get why they did it, but I don't have to like it.   

[SKUD]

I am assuming we need to depend on ncaa.com and Massey for the schedule.

[Ron Boerger]

As a dilletante that sort of follows the SCAC I am in total agreement with Kuiper's assessment of St. Thomas.   I hear Trinity has some back line height coming in (frustratingly, they still have not posted a roster) and that Meese is expected to return to form if he can avoid the injury bug (and lordy, is he due).  Not sure they have a solve at keeper; JC Vidales, who started the most games last year, played his fifth season already and the other regular starter (Wilman) was a senior. 

[OldNed]

Trial run...wanna test out what happens if I allot 25 minutes or less to going around the horn...

The UAA kind of messes up reviews by region, so off the top let me say that the UAA has fallen further behind NESCAC.  Chicago has separated from the rest of the UAA...with imo considerable distance between the Maroons and then, who?  NYU?  Rochester?  NYU did hand Chicago it's only blemish of the 2022 season in the much ballyhooded battle of D3's women head coaches, but still don't trust them in huge spots.  The superstar for the Violets needs to be more of a leader, but can he do that?  I will say that the UAA is the conference most likely to see a team flip from the top to the cellar very quickly, and vice-versa.  Brandeis went to two Final Fours in the last decade and found itself alone in the basement last year.  Btw, how about that "dine and dash" move by Stich with the trophy packed in her luggage?

Region 1 and 2....NESCAC, NESCAC, NESCAC...I counted off five teams -- Amherst, Tufts, Williams, Bowdoin, Middlebury -- and realized I hadn't even gotten to the national champ from 2 years ago.  So also Conn Coll with a ton of talent looking to rebound, and then Wesleyan and Hamilton making big noise until stumbling towards the end.  Colby and Bates can get better each year and still find moving up a couple of spots formidable.  And finally, Trinity (CT).  Babson is the perhaps the biggest non-NESCAC name that sticks out.  Eyes will be on Western CT, a team that went undefeated and still couldn't make the tournament.  Western CT bolstered the schedule with Vassar, Wesleyan and Williams, but the Wolves would be better off losing a few and winning the conference AQ.  Will Emerson follow up on a surprisingly strong season?  Doubtful.  Maybe MIT, WPI, or Coast Guard stepping up?  What other "mid-major" will force themselves into the mix?  St Joe's (ME) or the Connecticut version.  Johnson and Wales appears to have a very soft schedule.  Endicott often seems like a sleeper.

In Region 3 it's Oneonta, Cortland, Rochester, and SLU.  No disrespect to Vassar, who could win the LL, but going deep seems unlikely.  Another SUNYAC could emerge, but your guess is as good or better than mine in terms of who that might be.  Brockport and New Paltz had their moments and iirc some of us thought Brockport deserved a bid last year.

In Regions 4 and 5, Messiah is the biggest dog and should be a top 3-5 team nationally all season.  Otherwise, I think Stevens gets the nod over NYU and Montclair St mainly just because I trust Stevens more.  Rowan always seems to be in the mix.  F&M and Hopkins should duel in the Centennial and be right there with Stevens looking up at the Falcons.  Is Catholic closer to all of the above or to the rest of the pack?  Gotta see more from the Cardinals before I slot them at or near the top tier.  Another team or three will emerge but I've got no clue who they might be.

Region 6 is Washington & Lee's territory.  Can Mary Washington duplicate last year's stunning run?  Who could have predicted them getting through OWU, Amherst, and Bowdoin to reach the Final Four, especially with the last two played at Amherst?  Christopher Newport and Lynchburg will hover around the top 15-25 range most of the season.  Who else?  Would be great to see a Sewanee or Rhodes take another big step, or maybe Centre or Emory are rejuvenated.  I see VWU, Oglethorpe, and Covenant as spoilers more than sleepers.

Region 7 is basically the NCAC and OAC with a dash of CMU and RHIT/Hanover.  Kenyon, OWU, and Denison should lead the NCAC with one of the US-231 Indiana squads (DePauw and Wabash) looking to crash the party.  In the the OAC, it's JCU, ONU, and Otterbein.  CMU is hard to predict, but difficult to be too optimistic when they should not have made the tourney last year which was confirmed by a 1st round 5-0 shellacking at the hands of mighty Calvin. 

Speaking of Calvin, among Region 8 programs, the Knights should be right there with Chicago and North Park as threats to Messiah and NESCAC heavyweights.  North Central would appear to be the only other Region 8 outfit with a chance to displace of the Big Three.

In Region 9, I'm gonna give the nod to Gustavus Adolphus.  St Olaf with strong returning talent is a big wild card given an unexpected coaching change.  St John's might be a sleeper, and we're all on pins and needles waiting to see how the Blugolds of UWEC fare with a bigger target on their back.  Luther and Loras should dominate the American Rivers Conf but will either be good enough to trouble the star programs in Region 8.

For Region 10, see @kuiper.

And....I went 13 minutes over lol.

I love the idea to divide the regions among current users PN, but unfortunately I'm not going to be able to help.  My son is an assistant now at a D1 school, so most of my soccer watching will be at the D1 level now and I don't think i'm going to have much leftover time to watch D3 games. 

[Hopkins92]

Suggestion to think about....

Kuiper covers Reg 10

Sager does Reg 8 and maybe 9 or splits 9 (like Sager takes MIAA and Kuiper American Rivers?)

I take Reg 7 and maybe temporarily 1 (or split 1 with  OldNed, College Soccer Observer, etc)

jknezek or whoever jknezek thinks could do Reg 6

Some combo of a Messiah person, SC, Hop92, Ejay, paclassics, etc covering Reg 5 and 4

The SLU/LL crew on Reg 3

Maybe a Babson person and/or talk blooter442 into a return tour of duty for Reg 2

The above is just a mock suggestion...

It is far easier to talk about 1 or 2 regions halfway intelligently than 9 or 10...

I actually threw this idea out when SC was starting his podcasting, saying we could have folks cover Regions and report out. It was when we were helping him brainstorm and I think it just got caught up in the wash.

I'm definitely in for following Centennial and MAC-F and MAC-C... I think if Landmark keeps its games up for 72 hours before paywalling, i can commit to checking in on them, as well.

[TNAggie]

Same here — I like this idea

————

Suggestion to think about....

Kuiper covers Reg 10

Sager does Reg 8 and maybe 9 or splits 9 (like Sager takes MIAA and Kuiper American Rivers?)

I take Reg 7 and maybe temporarily 1 (or split 1 with  OldNed, College Soccer Observer, etc)

jknezek or whoever jknezek thinks could do Reg 6

Some combo of a Messiah person, SC, Hop92, Ejay, paclassics, etc covering Reg 5 and 4

The SLU/LL crew on Reg 3

Maybe a Babson person and/or talk blooter442 into a return tour of duty for Reg 2

The above is just a mock suggestion...

It is far easier to talk about 1 or 2 regions halfway intelligently than 9 or 10...

I actually threw this idea out when SC was starting his podcasting, saying we could have folks cover Regions and report out. It was when we were helping him brainstorm and I think it just got caught up in the wash.

I'm definitely in for following Centennial and MAC-F and MAC-C... I think if Landmark keeps its games up for 72 hours before paywalling, i can commit to checking in on them, as well.

[Hopkins92]

It is far easier to talk about 1 or 2 regions halfway intelligently than 9 or 10...

And as I've stated in the past, this is why I struggle when considering throwing my hat in the National Poll process. I just don't have the bandwidth to credibly assess more than the 2 or 3 regions on the east coast.

[Kuiper]

Suggestion to think about....

Kuiper covers Reg 10

Sager does Reg 8 and maybe 9 or splits 9 (like Sager takes MIAA and Kuiper American Rivers?)

I take Reg 7 and maybe temporarily 1 (or split 1 with  OldNed, College Soccer Observer, etc)

jknezek or whoever jknezek thinks could do Reg 6

Some combo of a Messiah person, SC, Hop92, Ejay, paclassics, etc covering Reg 5 and 4

The SLU/LL crew on Reg 3

Maybe a Babson person and/or talk blooter442 into a return tour of duty for Reg 2

The above is just a mock suggestion...

It is far easier to talk about 1 or 2 regions halfway intelligently than 9 or 10...

I've already been doing Region X for the last year, although I do pipe up every now or then about games/teams in other regions too because it's a bit more fun to post where the board is more active.  That's the issue in posts reporting about games/news/developments in a specific region -- the readership can be quite siloed, making the task feel pretty lonely.  This is especially true about Region X and the Go West thread, which has maybe one other person who sometimes pipes up about his team during the season.  I suspect it's a resource for people doing the rankings, for recruits and their parents checking up on schools and activity in one of Region X's conferences, and for interested people from other regions of the country come tournament time, but these kinds of "reporting" posts don't tend to generate much discussion anywhere on the board and therefore don't work as well in a discussion forum.  In that sense, it might be better suited for D3soccer.com (if it had survived) or on a home page of Simple Coach's "All Things DIII Soccer" podcast as columns or as blog posts, although that might make them seem too formal and like work, not generating the feedback that encourages the poster to keep them up either (other than possibly providing reports of page views and maybe sharing in the spoils of SC's influencer status).  The posts would draw more eyeballs/discussion on a "National Perspectives" thread, but that would get awfully messy and make the thread less attractive to those just wanting to talk about the top teams.