2023 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[Falconer]

Just an FYI for those anticipating the game between Messiah and Mary Washington: owing to the forecast, it's been moved all the way up to 11:00 am Saturday, with the women's game to follow.

[northman]

Sunday, Sept 24

Bowdoin-Williams...Game of the day.  This weekend should give us a strong hint about whether either of these teams are overrated.  I've watched snippets of Williams and Diffley looks as sharp as he was in last year's tourney run.  Is top GK in NESCAC down to Grady and Diffley?  Can Juantorena disrupt any offensive forays by the Ephs...and also supply a little magic on the other end?  Just like with having a Grady or Diffley, it's got to feel comforting for Bowdoin fans to see Juantorena on the pitch.  Or will the match be decided by a Huckster?  Cries to make sure you pay attention to a #35 somehow don't sound right.  But then there's #48, Michael Meese, at Trinity (TX), and no school has high impact players with more unusual numbers than North Park.

I've been meaning to respond to this but work travel got in the way. 

Beginning last night, Bowdoin plays four games in eight days, including a challenging weekend of road games against Midd and Williams (rated #5 and #3 on Massey).  Forecast calls for cool temps and rain both days.  Midd has turf but Cole Field at Williams will be a mud pit for Sunday (it is a NESCAC double header weekend, with Williams hosting Colby in the rain on Saturday).

Bowdoin had a solid non-conference win last night, defeating Southern Maine 5-1. Goals will be much harder to come by this weekend.  Since fall 2019 when the current 5th year seniors started (Braver, Juantorena and Selig), Bowdoin hasn't defeated either Midd or Williams, although there have been several ties (including an intense double OT tie with Midd in 2019, when ties weren't so much of a thing).  Both games should be typical, NESCAC physical battles, with the added unpredictable impact of rain.

Huck is a very special player and easy to spot w/ his #35.  Definitely worth streaming to watch him play if you aren't already tuning in Sunday for the mud pit soccer. 

The student newspaper ran a nice profile on him recently.

https://bowdoinorient.com/2023/09/01/polar-bear-of-the-week-tyler-huck-26/

Yes, Midd and Williams make for a very tough back-to-back set of weekend games.  Given the elimination of OT and the general competitive parity in the NESCAC, I can easily see a continuation of last year's trend toward a number of NESCAC draws throughout the season...and many of those scoreless.  I would think Bowdoin would feel OK if they came out of the weekend with anything ranging from two draws, to a win and a loss, to something better (unlikely).

That is a nice story about Tyler Huck.  I didn't realize he had the London background as a youth.  My only complaint is that he's an Arsenal fan...whereas my two sons are United fans and I'm a Liverpool fan...   

[PaulNewman]

Freddy, no worries and appreciate your response to the response.

I do want to clarify one thing that I realized far too late might be misunderstood.  In that initial response to your short post, I used your post and quoted it because it was the most recent one after what seemed like a page or two of posters other than yourself trying to make sense of the USC poll (which may have happened in one of the other threads....So anyway I clumsily was responding to you but also trying to hit on a few points that really had nothing to do with you.  Only #2 and #3 were responding directly to you, and for #1 that was directed at what seemed like at least a handful of posters who had been talking about the USC poll and your reference to polls there re-triggered what I had already been thinking about responding to before your post.  I thought numbering the items would add clarity and suffice for understanding that I was addressing multiple topics, but in hindsight I get how the whole thing could come across.

One of the risks of frequent posting is that mistakes will be made, which I don't mind admitting to...as long as I'm the one who recognizes and corrects errors before someone else does lol.  I definitely got VWU wrong to some degree.  They've been up and down over the last decade but the Marlins have had some good seasons and their SoS in some years has been much better than I had pegged as a perennial thing.

This may help with the SoS and NCAA rankings that determine Pool C...last 4 years for VWU...below is overall record/record vs "ranked" teams/SoS...

2022 -- 12-4-4----1-3-2----.561

2021 -- 12-4-4----0-2-3----.514

2019 -- 7-11----1-1-0----.514

2018-- 5-11-1----0-4-0----.584

So two years consistent with where I thought their SoS usually landed, and two years where significantly higher and plenty high enough in terms of any threshold that would be disqualifying.  The .514 most often would be disqualifying except for rare cases where the rest of the resume is nearly spotless...and probably where a team had multiple "ranked wins" to its credit. 

So in 2022 VWU was a viable, borderline candidate for Pool C and they did end up regionally ranked at #5.  Close, but just a couple of teams above them with slightly better resumes to keep them out.  Maybe two more "ranked" wins in 2022 would have sealed the deal.  Same overall record in 2021 but were not regionally ranked (and thus essentially out of consideration) due mainly to SoS and also lack of regionally ranked wins.  You can see that in 2018 VWU actually had a quite good SoS at .584 (well above threshold), but there the overall record and lack of any "ranked" wins did them in.  Bottom line is that RvR (record vs ranked teams) and SoS play what most of us would consider an outsized role in the selection process unless the overall record was basically already disqualifying up front.  In other words, a team without a winning record isn't going to get a bid, but frequently there are teams that finish 9-5-2 or 7-4-5 or similar who do get bids because they have two or more ranked wins in their pocket and a sky-high SoS (like in .590-.630 range).  I intentionally included 9-5-2 because I think that was Tufts' record going into the 2016 NCAA tourney where they were borderline for even getting a bid and of course went on to win the national title.  The UAAs and a good portion of the NESCACs tend to have the highest SoSs, and some could argue (and do) that there's some unfairness there as those teams basically have high SoS baked in every year simply based on conference affiliation.

[Ejay]

Just an FYI for those anticipating the game between Messiah and Mary Washington: owing to the forecast, it's been moved all the way up to 11:00 am Saturday, with the women's game to follow.

Hmmm, will be interesting to see if UMW now decides to say overnight Friday since I'm sure they have little desire to make the 3:30 drive at 6am.

[Hopkins92]

(Is it bad that I subconsciously root against Mary Wash because driving through Fredericksburg on I95 is like dipping a toe into Hades?)

[Flying Weasel]

Just an FYI for those anticipating the game between Messiah and Mary Washington: owing to the forecast, it's been moved all the way up to 11:00 am Saturday, with the women's game to follow.

Came here to post the same thing after finding out.  Well . . ., any chance of me catching part of this game is gone now.  So frustrating that the most attractive game on Messiah's schedule isn't one that I can get to even though it is at home on a Saturday.  #1 vs. #3 in the nation is huge.  It was going to be a tight for me to get there by the second half when the game was at 5pm instead of later in the evening.  Now, zero chance of seeing a single minute given the kids' soccer games and a trip to the airport to pick-up an in-law flying in from Brazil.  Ugghh!   And, yes, the decision to move the game up makes sense in an effort to not lose the match entirely.  Just personally frustrated that I'll miss the top match on this year's schedule and won't get to see Mary Washington in person despite living 20 minutes away.

[jknezek]

(Is it bad that I subconsciously root against Mary Wash because driving through Fredericksburg on I95 is like dipping a toe into Hades?)

Dirty little secret of mine is that I root against my local h.s. football team because when they are good, Friday night home games make a mess of me being able to go anywhere. When they are bad, it's much more manageable. When my daughter starts marching in the band next year I'll have to change my tune, but for 15 years I've been rooting against them. Probably get me murdered down here in AL if the neighbors knew.

[NEPAFAN]

Just an FYI for those anticipating the game between Messiah and Mary Washington: owing to the forecast, it's been moved all the way up to 11:00 am Saturday, with the women's game to follow.

Came here to post the same thing after finding out.  Well . . ., any chance of me catching part of this game is gone now.  So frustrating that the most attractive game on Messiah's schedule isn't one that I can get to even though it is at home on a Saturday.  #1 vs. #3 in the nation is huge.  It was going to be a tight for me to get there by the second half when the game was at 5pm instead of later in the evening.  Now, zero chance of seeing a single minute given the kids' soccer games and a trip to the airport to pick-up an in-law flying in from Brazil.  Ugghh!   And, yes, the decision to move the game up makes sense in an effort to not lose the match entirely.  Just personally frustrated that I'll miss the top match on this year's schedule and won't get to see Mary Washington in person despite living 20 minutes away.

I'm not sure they play at all tomorrow

[SierraFD3soccer]

Just an FYI for those anticipating the game between Messiah and Mary Washington: owing to the forecast, it's been moved all the way up to 11:00 am Saturday, with the women's game to follow.

Came here to post the same thing after finding out.  Well . . ., any chance of me catching part of this game is gone now.  So frustrating that the most attractive game on Messiah's schedule isn't one that I can get to even though it is at home on a Saturday.  #1 vs. #3 in the nation is huge.  It was going to be a tight for me to get there by the second half when the game was at 5pm instead of later in the evening.  Now, zero chance of seeing a single minute given the kids' soccer games and a trip to the airport to pick-up an in-law flying in from Brazil.  Ugghh!   And, yes, the decision to move the game up makes sense in an effort to not lose the match entirely.  Just personally frustrated that I'll miss the top match on this year's schedule and won't get to see Mary Washington in person despite living 20 minutes away.

I'm not sure they play at all tomorrow

Good question considering they are playing on grass.  Interesting that they have two turf field (one is lacrosse and the other field hockey - FYI field hockey is huge in PA and Messiah did win a nat'l champ in that), but don't think either has soccer lines. 

Also I would think that the game will most likely not be pushed to Sunday (not saying that day would better with the weather forecast) based on religious reasons. Messiah used to have issues with day 2 of the NCAAs being on Sundays (I think they may have changed that). However, reg. season games they might stay true.

Maybe play Monday night!!  Much better than the NFL!! That would be a great time!!

[Freddyfud]

(Is it bad that I subconsciously root against Mary Wash because driving through Fredericksburg on I95 is like dipping a toe into Hades?)

Southbound is a toe.  Northbound is an entire leg.

[Kuiper]

If you have the day off today (or are taking a late lunch break), the Christopher Newport v. UC Santa Cruz game at 1:00 pm eastern @ Colorado College is the most national "conference" game you will ever find.  It's technically not a Coast 2 Coast conference game because they only have a conference tournament in that conference, but they are both in the C2C and they are playing at a neutral site that is thousands of miles away from either school (around 1300 miles from Santa Cruz and 1700 miles from Newport News if anyone is road-tripping it) and 6000+ feet above sea level (for comparison Newport News is about 15 feet above sea level and UC Santa Cruz is up the mountain a bit and the soccer field is probably around 400ft elevation).

By the way, if you're unfamiliar with the Coast2Coast conference and wondering what the heck it is and why it was created (hint:  it's not because of gargantuan media contracts like the new Big 10), this D3 Datacast (basketball) podcast ("What's the Deal with the Coast-to-Coast Conference?") was just posted today and might be of interest to you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLvFHXXJQBg

[Hopkins92]

(Is it bad that I subconsciously root against Mary Wash because driving through Fredericksburg on I95 is like dipping a toe into Hades?)

Southbound is a toe.  Northbound is an entire leg.

Yeah, the extension of the express lanes SB is huge... NB extension well under way. Long overdue and honestly, while places like Lumberton and the 295 turnoff can be a pain, nothing is like F'berg.

[PaulNewman]

For some reason I'm thinking Messiah has played on turf at home...and maybe even in the NCAA tourney...or did that involve moving an entire Sectional from Grantham to Rochester?  Maybe both true?

In any case, I very much have been looking forward to it and hope they play, but if the conditions are truly awful we're not gonna learn much.

These kind of matchups are so infrequent, and sometimes don 't happen when we expect them to.  Cue in the history!  Ever since Tufts upset Messiah in the Elite 8 in 2014 the two programs never met again, although they could have met a couple of times at least in the NCAA tourney if for one of them getting knocked out before meeting.  We also have never gotten Messiah vs Amherst or Messiah vs Chicago. 

Btw, this is a good case for the "higher ranked team" being the underdog.  Hard to go against Messiah at home in this big of a spot.  They seem to crave these games and I wonder if sometimes they coast too much almost because of boredom.


*****Btw, for as long as I've been playing (following) Messiah has played on Sundays.  Calvin and I think Hope notably do not...and there are others who do not.

[SimpleCoach]

Btw, this is a good case for the "higher ranked team" being the underdog.  Hard to go against Messiah at home in this big of a spot.  They seem to crave these games and I wonder if sometimes they coast too much almost because of boredom.

Long thought this.  They can look incredible against teams that they know a lot is at stake, then take a mental health day when they play a perceived lesser opponent.

Perhaps a topic of discussion for the next New Show?

SC.

[PaulNewman]

Btw, this is a good case for the "higher ranked team" being the underdog.  Hard to go against Messiah at home in this big of a spot.  They seem to crave these games and I wonder if sometimes they coast too much almost because of boredom.

Long thought this.  They can look incredible against teams that they know a lot is at stake, then take a mental health day when they play a perceived lesser opponent.

Perhaps a topic of discussion for the next New Show?

SC.

Excellent! 

Deconstructing the Messiah psyche from an outsider's perspective

OR

An outsider's never before seen glimpse into the Messiah experience

OR

Yeah, it's flippin Messiah...what ya gonna do about it?