2023 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Definitely not suggesting that Amherst would win every game at the billiard table that is Hitchcock Field, PN, but I know for a fact that no team has won more games there than the Mammoths.  I do like describing it as TBTTIHF as I know that it runs completely contrary to opinion in here.

The point I was making about the group phase is that teams like Steaua Bucharest, PSV and Red Star, all won European Cups, but benefited from one off games, whereas in the group phase it is tougher to consistently get results.  None of those teams could do it now.  If a D3 Champions League group had Massey teams 1, 5, 15 and 35.  Team 35 might "surprise" team 5, but the fact they are team 35 probably tells you that that is more of a surprise.  As things currently stand, that might get them to the sweet 16 or elite 8, but in a D3 Champions League they still have to get results against teams 1 & 15, which is empirically less likely, notwithstanding that a win against team 5 would improve their rating.

LOL, you've already moved the bar from 32 to 35!

I'm not sure what the point is in trying to apply something that is never gonna happen.  And your argument that a Champions League would increase the consistency of results actually helps my argument about why that one particular game carries special significance.  Messiah had won almost every year, then Tufts won three out of four, that upstart Amherst got one, Conn one, and now Chicago one.  Out of all of those the only mild to moderate surprises were maybe the first Tufts title and maybe Conn, with the caveat that once both of those teams reached the Final Four they were considered just as likely or more so to snag the title than the other three participants.  Do you truly want Messiah to win every year?  Or just hoping that Amherst will win every year.  There really are no shock champions.  As I noted maybe a couple of weeks ago the only non-Messiah, non-NESCAC title winners in recent memory were the incredible Chicago team last year (that was imo pretty inarguably the best team in the country) and OWU in 2011 when if form had held OWU should have played Messiah at the Final Four or for the Final.  Messiah had one of those fluke losses, just as OWU did the next year in 2012.  Those two teams were neck and neck and pretty clearly #1 and #2 in the country in 2011...and close to it in 2012.

[PaulNewman]

Btw, this a question for some of the old-timers (and anyone)...and please chime in if you think this is hyperbolic and/or unfair.

Tufts was not better than Messiah in 2014...very, very good and that day good enough but 2012-2014 Messiah had just fantastic teams who I would guess could have finished mid-table or better in the Patriot League.  Tufts scored like in the first minute.  Messiah cleared a ball to only outside the 18 where Tufts legend and midfield maestro, Jason Kayne, one-timed a half-volley top shelf.  Messiah threw the kitchen sink at Tufts but could not break through to score.  Messiah fans will point out that the match was played on Muhlenberg's infamous turf.

So the question...was that game/moment program-altering (and even D3 landscape-altering) for either, both, or none.  I don't think it takes a lot of hyperbole to say all three. 

Tufts experienced the feeling of being a champion (barely, barely got a bid that year too), and went on to win three more in a four year period (a feat only Messiah had matched or exceeded at least in the past 25 years).  Not saying Tufts didn't have great players and they obviously has a brilliant coach, but I think winning that game changed the Jumbo culture, just like with Messiah, winning every single year became the expectation.

Messiah has won only once title since that game when at worst they probably were supposed to win every other year.  The next year of 2015 Amherst won.  Then Tufts won again in 2016.  Messiah won in 2017...a year when I think Tufts got knocked out of Bello Field by Brandeis in double OT that at least most of Tufts Nation considered fluky.  Then back to Tufts for 2018 and 2019.  And after Covid year, Conn Coll and Chicago have claimed titles.  We at least currently are in a new era where there isn't an almost automatic endorsement of Messiah vs The Field.

In truth, I doubt Messiah has changed much at all, but maybe has forced Falcon Nation to calibrate things a little differently.

And certainly the overall landscape still has its favorites every year, but the sense that you don't have to be Messiah (or Tufts) to win a title imo has really opened things up.

I think this is a long answer with a lot of factors.

For my money I think the "elite tier" of D3 soccer has just gotten broader and flatter, while the second tier has gotten so much larger. Messiah in the 00s and early teens was constantly in the top tier, but that top tier, the teams that could legitimately win a title, was maybe a cast of 4 or 5 schools that rotated, but Messiah was always there. By the start of the teens, I think that tier had expanded to 8 teams, with 4 or 5 being there regularly, or at least spending a considerable number of years in a row there. Now I think that tier is closer to 12, with 4 or 5 that are there consistently and then a rotating group.

As that group expands, and frankly the second tier gets deeper in quality, the odds of "upsets" increases, especially in a low scoring game like soccer that is not really the best for single-elimination tournaments. I don't think you are ever going to see another run like Messiah from 2000-2014. 10/14 championships in an NCAA style tournament is a dominance that I don't think, the way talent is evaluated and dispersed now, will ever be repeated.

Personally, any team that can win 2 titles in 5 years, with other years being Elite 8 or better, is probably a dynasty. I find Tufts run of 4 in 6 years to be almost comically against the odds these days. I can see teams winning back to back again, you get that special group of players and they win as mostly juniors and again as seniors. But beyond that? There is so much talent available, and so many more schools with the ability to find it.

I suspect Messiah will remain among the elites, but I suspect a championship every 5 years, maybe a repeat once in every 10 years, is going to be a darn good mark for D3 dynasties.

Now, why do I think this is true? Because the players across the country are so much better. My home town soccer club in NJ was founded in 1976. Those kids, from that very first year of inexperienced dads inspired by the NASL, went to college in the late 80s, early 90s. It was one of 4 clubs in two counties. I started playing in 1983 at 5 years old, and the league had grown to 12 clubs, and I promise you, every one of our coaches still had no idea what soccer was. The refs were all immigrants, and tactics were non-existent. My dad was watching VHS "learn to coach soccer" tapes in 1985, and he was still watching them while coaching me in 1994, just going up in age.

We had no clue how to play soccer and, except for the 1994 World Cup it wasn't on TV. I remember my dad hiring a soccer "tutor" for several members of our team when I was about 10, all the parents chipped in. It was a 70 year old Italian guy we couldn't understand who spent an hour with us and told us we couldn't beat 7 year olds in "the old country" and we weren't playing soccer, just kickball, and he wasn't able to coach such incompetence. We were runner-up NJ State Champs at the time.

When I went to W&L, class of 2000, it wasn't the tactics that kept me on the bench, they were no better than what I had picked up playing select and at various summer camps and in h.s., it was the athleticism. I had a good "soccer mind" for the time, having watched as many videos as my dad, but I couldn't kick and run with the college crowd. And I guarantee almost no one in D3 was looking for David Beckham, they were looking for Cobi Jones.

Contrast that to today, where the local club where I live now, required completion of all the U.S. Soccer grassroots classes to coach a 5 year old rec league team. In Alabama! A state where soccer is still often considered a communist plot. You want to coach an entry level travel team? D license. You want to coach a select travel team? C License. Every travel coach is paid, they share at least two teams in season, often 3, with assistants that coach away games.

In other words, these kids playing today have learned to play soccer. Maybe not as well as the rest of the world, with their academy systems that cover huge swathes of the country while ours covers a few urban areas, but they have learned more by 10 about "football" than I ever learned about "soccer". And the ones playing D3 aren't just the kids that made a h.s. team and could run. The recruiting process is different, the newer coaches are different, the pool is bigger, and schools like Messiah, with their wonderful recruiting niches, can get players they never dreamed of 20 years ago, but so can so many other schools.

I expect it will continue to get harder, and I suspect more and different schools will push through to the Elite 8. Not just because tournament soccer can be fluky, but because the barriers to good players have fallen and more and more good coaches grow up from the generations after mine that actually learned how to play football.

Agree with all of this even if it doesn't really assess the significance (or lack thereof) of that 2014 match.

And since you brought it up, why DO you live in Alabama lol??!

[Kuiper]

If you have the day off today (or are taking a late lunch break), the Christopher Newport v. UC Santa Cruz game at 1:00 pm eastern @ Colorado College is the most national "conference" game you will ever find.  It's technically not a Coast 2 Coast conference game because they only have a conference tournament in that conference, but they are both in the C2C and they are playing at a neutral site that is thousands of miles away from either school (around 1300 miles from Santa Cruz and 1700 miles from Newport News if anyone is road-tripping it) and 6000+ feet above sea level (for comparison Newport News is about 15 feet above sea level and UC Santa Cruz is up the mountain a bit and the soccer field is probably around 400ft elevation).

By the way, if you're unfamiliar with the Coast2Coast conference and wondering what the heck it is and why it was created (hint:  it's not because of gargantuan media contracts like the new Big 10), this D3 Datacast (basketball) podcast ("What's the Deal with the Coast-to-Coast Conference?") was just posted today and might be of interest to you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLvFHXXJQBg

Christopher Newport woke up from a tight game that they were winning 1-0 at half to score 4 goals in the second and beat UC Santa Cruz 5-0.  It was a little of a rope-a-dope because UCSC was passing pretty nicely down the field and doing good switches to the left wing running onto goal, but CNU's right back was generally able to handle those easily and usher the wing out to the endline where he ran out of room.  Once they shut that down (or the left wing ran out of gas after multiple lung-busting runs), UCSC didn't have a lot of ideas and CNU went to work.  By winning this game easily, CNU was able to rotate a lot of players and that will help them because they have to turn around tomorrow and play a rested (and altitude-adjusted) Colorado College.  I think CNU has the talent to handle them regardless, but Colorado College did tie Ohio Northern earlier this year in Ada, OH and usually plays pretty well at home. 

[jknezek]

Agree with all of this even if it doesn't really assess the significance (or lack thereof) of that 2014 match.

And since you brought it up, why DO you live in Alabama lol??!

Probably because I don't consider that particular match all that significant for Messiah. More so for Tufts because I agree it's easier to win when you already have proven you can do it. Breaking through is hard. But I think around that time, and I'm surprised it didn't happen a few years earlier, the democratization of D3 soccer was in full swing. I just think Messiah had such a mystique that it took a few years longer than it should have for the mystique to diminish as talent spread. And yes, I mean diminish. There is still a mystique about Messiah, well-earned as they are one of the best and, in my opinion, consistently the most beautiful team to watch in D3.

And I live in AL because my job is here. I left the north east for South Florida for a job, lived there for a few years, met and married my wife there, and then the office was closed and we were moved up here. Alabama has it's good points and it's bad points, like everywhere else, but I will forever be a yankee to the people here. And even my kids, born here, will always be outsiders since they were born to a yankee. I do, however, find living in a drastically different part of the country from where I grew up very broadening and helpful. It helps explain a lot about our nation right now.

[PaulNewman]

Agree with all of this even if it doesn't really assess the significance (or lack thereof) of that 2014 match.

And since you brought it up, why DO you live in Alabama lol??!

Probably because I don't consider that particular match all that significant for Messiah. More so for Tufts because I agree it's easier to win when you already have proven you can do it. Breaking through is hard. But I think around that time, and I'm surprised it didn't happen a few years earlier, the democratization of D3 soccer was in full swing. I just think Messiah had such a mystique that it took a few years longer than it should have for the mystique to diminish as talent spread. And yes, I mean diminish. There is still a mystique about Messiah, well-earned as they are one of the best and, in my opinion, consistently the most beautiful team to watch in D3.

And I live in AL because my job is here. I left the north east for South Florida for a job, lived there for a few years, met and married my wife there, and then the office was closed and we were moved up here. Alabama has it's good points and it's bad points, like everywhere else, but I will forever be a yankee to the people here. And even my kids, born here, will always be outsiders since they were born to a yankee. I do, however, find living in a drastically different part of the country from where I grew up very broadening and helpful. It helps explain a lot about our nation right now.

Love that first paragraph.  I agree that Messiah as a program probably hasn't changed much at all, but certainly the fanbase has had to adjust.

On the other, you probably mentioned that before about how you got to Alabama.  And without going into details and getting myself in more trouble I agree that much of the Northeast and especially New England doesn't understand the South, and vice versa, in ways that reflect a lot of what is going on.  I'm sure Alabama is on another level than NC as NC I think is considered borderline Deep South while Alabama might be the capital of the Deep South...I guess along with Georgia.  Florida is its own world and maybe to a lesser degree, Louisiana....and how could I forget Mississippi.

I guess I will add one thing.  You might be too young, but from my perspective the US Senate is a big deal...and it has changed.  There used to be very reasonable, distinguised, and rational people on both sides who highly valued their relationships and the dignity of the Senate...John Warner, Warren Rudman, William Cohen, George Mitchell, Sam Nunn, etc, etc.  There were still pockets of extremism on both sides but that group in the middle was solid as a rock and genuinely tried to work together and truly cared about their country.  There were some other ones from the South too, including one who may still be one of your senators, who flipped some years ago. 

[Hopkins92]

I know and respect that we don't talk politics on this board. I will just say there has ALWAYS been regional differences and misunderstandings in this country. From Day 1 of the founding.

That's not really what's going on right now and I'll leave it at that.

[PaulNewman]

I know and respect that we don't talk politics on this board. I will just say there has ALWAYS been regional differences and misunderstandings in this country. From Day 1 of the founding.

That's not really what's going on right now and I'll leave it at that.

I'll stick to my comment about the Senate past and present, but yes, what's going on now is frankly unimaginable...and it's the elephant in the room almost anywhere you go, including probably here, unless one is sure they are with very like-minded folks.

[PaulNewman]

Any updates on Mary Wash vs Messiah?

Are most D3 regions getting the same weather or just Northeastern seaboard?

[EnmoreCat]

Tomorrow @ TBTTIHF has been brought forward to midday

[Kuiper]

Any updates on Mary Wash vs Messiah?

Are most D3 regions getting the same weather or just Northeastern seaboard?

No rain issues in Region X as far as I know, but Texas has excessive heat warnings with temperatures around 98 in San Antonio right now, and similar temperatures in Dallas and Houston.  Tomorrow, it will be about 95 degrees at kickoff when Hardin-Simmons plays at St. Thomas in Houston at 2:30 pm tomorrow and it will be about 100 degrees when Trinity plays at Concordia in Austin at 5:00 pm.  Texas boys are generally used to that kind of heat, but it can still take a toll on your fitness.  I wouldn't be shocked if they move some of those TX games later in the evening if possible.

[Flying Weasel]

Messiah played Stevens on turf in the 2017 NCAA sectional semis.  Game was moved from Shoemaker due to heavy rain

Definitely happened, but, and I am only going on what I can see, the two turf fields seem to not have soccer markings. https://gomessiah.com/facilities/lacrosse-turf/9 and https://gomessiah.com/facilities/anderson-field/5  May be other fields that they have access. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Messiah+University/@40.1530403,-76.9885789,614m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x89c8e8c0b22d487d:0x85a6affc49f5bcd3!8m2!3d40.1576139!4d-76.9869025!16zL20vMDIxbmJy?entry=ttu 

However, they may have a way.

Yes, I know for a fact (I was there) that the 2017 Sectional at Messiah was moved to the turf Lacrosse Field.  You are correct that the lacrosse field has no soccer markings.  Looking at the highlight videos (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsKGygNDkhM, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skhODRk16NE), I'm guessing the 6-yd and 18-yd boxes were marked the old-fashioned way with chalk.  They are hard to see in the Sweet 16 match vs. Stevens, but easier to pick out in the Elite 8 match vs. Rochester.  Given they had moved the games to the lacrosse field in 2017, I think many of us figured we'd keep the 2018 Sectionals at home again.

[Kuiper]

A few results of note in Region X:

Trinity crushed Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-1.  This was a dominant performance and a statement game by Trinity, which raced out to a 4-0 lead at halftime.  MHB has not been the same this year and falls to 2-3-1, but they had just beaten Austin 4-1 a week ago and lost to Texas Lutheran and St. Thomas by closer 2-0 scores, so I didn't foresee this kind of a score.

St. Thomas crushed McMurray 6-0.  This was one I could foresee as long as St. Thomas took the game seriously.  And they did.  Taty Aleman had 2 goals and an assist in 54 minutes (he now has 8 goals and 2 assists in 6 games) and Daniel Flores also had a brace. 

Texas Lutheran beat Hardin-Simmons 2-1 to go to 8-0 on the season.  TLU was facing a stronger opponent than Trinity and St. Thomas did, but, as usual, they did just (barely) enough to win, scoring the winning goal on a PK in the 88th minute.  They only took 5 shots the whole game.  On the other hand, Trinity could only tie Hardin-Simmons last week (2-2), so Texas Lutheran's narrower margin of victory than its conference rivals is not really concerning.  Nevertheless, until they face Trinity and St. Thomas in SCAC play, it's hard to know just how good TLU is this year. 

Southwestern 1 - Concordia TX 0.  Southwestern goes to 4-0-3 on the year, so I think it's fair to include them in the national perspective thread.  Nevertheless, they haven't really proven anything other than they are better than the NWC teams they beat (Willamette and Whitman) and the ASC teams.  The SCAC is just loaded this year, so Southwestern may be the odd team out.

[Falconer]

Messiah played Stevens on turf in the 2017 NCAA sectional semis.  Game was moved from Shoemaker due to heavy rain

The University of Rochester men's soccer team advanced to the Final Four for the first time in school history after posting a 2-1 victory over second-ranked Messiah College in the NCAA Division III Sectional Final on Sunday afternoon.

This is the first time Rochester has beaten Messiah in the NCAA Division III playoffs. The Falcons won the first four meetings, including a 2-0 victory last year on their home field in Grantham, PA. That sent Messiah to the Final Four and the Falcons won the NCAA title.

The 2018 sectional was supposed to return to Messiah, but a late-week snowstorm made the soccer field unplayable and the tournament was re-directed to Rochester on Thursday evening.

So Rochester is key because Messiah beat UR in the Elite 8 in 2017 AT MESSIAH to return to the Final Four (where they almost never or maybe never have lost).  And then the very next year you see the above when both met again in the Elite 8.

Like FW, I also attended those regional games on the turf field, including Rochester's win vs Amherst (which Amherst lost, IMO, b/c they parked the bus after getting the first goal). IMO, however, the key difference between the 2017 and 2018 games with Rochester, was not the location—historically the Falcons have done as well on the road in the tournament as they have at home (indeed, they lost the semi-final to Redlands at home in 2001). The decisive factor was, that AA MF Samuel Ruiz Plaza pulled a hamstring and couldn't play. He was the grease for that machine, which got the ball up the field to Nick West (need I say more?), who still scored the Falcons' only goal I think with his head that game. Rochester put more pressure on the Falcon backfield than the previous year, and without Ruiz Plaza to counter that move (you just couldn't take the ball from him), they struggled to run their offense.

I welcome alternative assessments.

[PaulNewman]

Hello Falconer, my old friend and foe...As you know well there is no fish in our little pond that gets caught more easily than me, but I would ask you to try to respond as though you were responding to a random, anonymous poster.

I don't have an alternative assessment.  I am curious about your assessment methodology.  Did you factor in an injury report/assessment of Rochester for those encounters?  And given the talent and depth of Messiah (not being sarcastic), do you not believe they had enough to prevail when missing a Samuel Ruiz Plaza or Groothoff?

Excluding the very occasional freak loss early or midseason against an obviously inferior opponent, what important losses or loss since 2010 would you endorse as legit, meaning without the headline being a Falcon injury or injuries, poor and clumsy refereeing, opponent aggression/shenanigans, bad field or weather conditions that impacted Messiah more than the opponent, and/or, etc, etc?

Genuinely would also love to hear your take on whether your perspective has shifted any in terms of Messiah perhaps not being THE singular clear and obvious favorite and having to settle for perennially being one among a handful or two handfuls of programs with relatively similar chances for prevailing?  And in that context, is your expectation, putting aside any potential mitigating factors, that the Falcons can and should win every year or almost every year?  Along the same lines, as a keen observer, do you think the landscape of D3 soccer at the higher ends has changed, or not?

[SierraFD3soccer]

Great broadcast of the Messiah game, hahaha. You get what you pay for.