2023 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[Freddyfud]

I posted this awhile back but reposting here:

He's A D1 Player But Is He?

Deep dive on the international presence albeit based on data from 2 years ago and supports the points above.  The focus in this post at least is realistic opportunities for US high school graduates based on data.

"So, in any given year, Division 1 may feature 874 American forwards, but that comes out to about 219 attackers per class. To put it in another light, if there was equal representation by state high school seniors, that's four players each, plus a 5th for another 19 states. Are you a top-five forward in your state? If you're from a small state or one that doesn't historically produce many college soccer players, you might have to be in the top two. That's a question you'll have to honestly answer if you're not getting any recruitment looks from D1 programs."

If the "competition is really the world" now then it seems an improvement in the quality across all divisions is a reasonable expectation.

[SierraFD3soccer]

 Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!

So we've talked about the influx of intl players into all levels.   I'm in the legal field, but not an expert in labor law. There is a case before the NLRB which may change NCAA soccer substantially. This is the article, but keep in mind there is no decision yet.

https://www.on3.com/nil/news/nil-potential-employee-model-could-dramatically-impact-international-college-athletes/

[Kuiper]

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!

So we've talked about the influx of intl players into all levels.   I'm in the legal field, but not an expert in labor law. There is a case before the NLRB which may change NCAA soccer substantially. This is the article, but keep in mind there is no decision yet.

https://www.on3.com/nil/news/nil-potential-employee-model-could-dramatically-impact-international-college-athletes/

There's a scenario in this case where employee status does not extend to D3 athletics.  That actually could push the academic-minded, financially capable, int'l player from the D1s to the D3, or, alternatively, it could push the Ivy League (and many other D1 programs) to D3.  I don't think any of this is likely anytime soon, but it's interesting to consider the implications.

[Ron Boerger]

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!

So we've talked about the influx of intl players into all levels.   I'm in the legal field, but not an expert in labor law. There is a case before the NLRB which may change NCAA soccer substantially. This is the article, but keep in mind there is no decision yet.

https://www.on3.com/nil/news/nil-potential-employee-model-could-dramatically-impact-international-college-athletes/

There's a scenario in this case where employee status does not extend to D3 athletics.  That actually could push the academic-minded, financially capable, int'l player from the D1s to the D3, or, alternatively, it could push the Ivy League (and many other D1 programs) to D3.  I don't think any of this is likely anytime soon, but it's interesting to consider the implications.

Granting D1 athletes employee status (regardless of personal feelings about that decision) likely only accelerates the eventual decision by D1 sports to take their ball (and the money that comes with it) and run, leaving the NCAA hanging high and dry.  No (or greatly reduced) D1 money for NCAA means no revenue sharing with D3, and goodbye to paid travel and per diems for playoffs.

This is going to happen sooner or later, with sooner shoving later out of the lead as greed continues to dominate the decision-making process up top.  Enjoy what we have today while you still can, because a 64-team playoff with travel and per diem paid by the association can't happen without D1 money.

[Kuiper]

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!

So we've talked about the influx of intl players into all levels.   I'm in the legal field, but not an expert in labor law. There is a case before the NLRB which may change NCAA soccer substantially. This is the article, but keep in mind there is no decision yet.

https://www.on3.com/nil/news/nil-potential-employee-model-could-dramatically-impact-international-college-athletes/

There's a scenario in this case where employee status does not extend to D3 athletics.  That actually could push the academic-minded, financially capable, int'l player from the D1s to the D3, or, alternatively, it could push the Ivy League (and many other D1 programs) to D3.  I don't think any of this is likely anytime soon, but it's interesting to consider the implications.

Granting D1 athletes employee status (regardless of personal feelings about that decision) likely only accelerates the eventual decision by D1 sports to take their ball (and the money that comes with it) and run, leaving the NCAA hanging high and dry.  No (or greatly reduced) D1 money for NCAA means no revenue sharing with D3, and goodbye to paid travel and per diems for playoffs.

This is going to happen sooner or later, with sooner shoving later out of the lead as greed continues to dominate the decision-making process up top.  Enjoy what we have today while you still can, because a 64-team playoff with travel and per diem paid by the association can't happen without D1 money.

Totally agree that there's a good chance the revenue sports leave the NCAA if athletes were deemed employees (since they would need to keep all their revenue to pay their athletes rather than spreading it around the athletic department) and D3 schools would be faced with the prospect of funding their own national tournaments or abandoning them and settling for conference tournaments only with perhaps state or regional championships substituting for national championships like in high school.  On the specific issue of employee status, though, I was suggesting that the int'l athletes might have more trouble obtaining the visas necessary to qualify as employees, which might make DI impossible for them.

[camosfan]

Apart from Track and field I don't see and immediate impact on other sports, the two big revenue sports have minimal international students participating.

[Kuiper]

Apart from Track and field I don't see and immediate impact on other sports, the two big revenue sports have minimal international students participating.

There are two different issues in this part of the thread.  The question for int'l students will be whether all athletes in DI sports are deemed employees, which is theoretically possible.  The question for DIII funding is whether the revenue sports break off from the NCAA.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Another consideration, which obviously may or may not happen with int'l players being no longer allowed in D1 soccer, is that the 34% (see below and could be less) of these D1 programs will need to be replaced with D2 and D3 American players.  D2 has similar high numbers of int'l players. May not be a great deal, but it may mean that D3 programs will lose some of their best players.

https://twitter.com/ImCollegeSoccer/status/1724762780358660455

Top 16 Seeds

1. Marshall 24/29 83%
2. Notre Dame 6/34 18%
3. UNC 9/36 25%
4. Georgetown 0/29 0%
5. WVU 15/29 52%
6. SMU 9/32 28%
7. UVA 8/36 22%
8. UNH 16/33 48%
9. Clemson 11/32 34%
10. WFU 5/33 15%
11. Portland 7/33 21%
12. UCF 20/29 69%
13. UCLA 4/26 15%
14. Hofstra 18/30 60%
15. Duke 6/32 19%
16. Stanford 5/29 17%

Top 16 Seeds 163/502 32%

Remaining NCAA Participants

San Diego 9/35 26%
Cal Baptist 12/27 44%
Missouri State 24/26 92%
Omaha 13/28 46%
Charlotte 10/28 36%
High Point 4/28 14%
Syracuse 15/34 44%
Boston 5/27 19%
Louisville 5/27 19%
Dayton 15/30 50%
Vermont 10/29 34%
Rider 10/29 34%
Loyola Marymount 8/30 27%
UCIrvine 3/28 11%
Pittsburgh 10/28 36%
JMU 9/30 30%
Memphis 13/28 46%
SIUE 12/26 46%
Bryant 20/54 37%
Yale 6/31 19%
Oregon State 13/29 45%
Seattle 15/30 50%
Denver 3/31 10%
Long Island 10/33 30%
FIU 23/27 85%
Mercer 1/29 3%
Indiana 4/32 13%
Lipscomb 12/30 40%
W. Michigan 4/31 13%
UWGB 12/30 40%
Xavier 8/30 27%
Kentucky 9/25 36%

Non Seeded Participants
327/960 34%

Total # of International players participating in 2023 NCAA tourney 490/1462=34%

[SKUD]

How does that % compare with total enrollment % of foreign students.  My gut is that they are similar.

[Hopkins92]

I am highly skeptical that the numbers posted mirror the general enrollment numbers. A quick check sees Oregon State with 8.9 percent foreign student enrollment. Kentucky is 4 percent. Memphis is 3 percent.

[Freddyfud]

Interesting discussion including the point on employee status.  From the NCAA demographics data https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2018/12/13/ncaa-demographics-database.aspx the percentage of international (defined as non US citizen) players for all D1 teams this year was 21.5%.  Based on this same data from 2012 that mix of international players was half at 11.0%.  And while the rate of international students doubled over this period the 6,441 total D1 roster spots this year only grew by 15.7% compared to 2012.  Regardless of the implications one thing is clear.  D1 programs have been filling roster spots with a greater proportion of international students over the past 10 years.  When you look at the mix in terms of actual playing time in that blog I posted above it is even more skewed toward international students.   

(Interesting to note over the same time period the mix of international students in D3 has also almost doubled.  However that mix was only 4.9% this year compared to the 21.5% for D1.)

Like others I am curious about the implications for all divisions of soccer.  Judging from the article Sierra posted it doesn't sound like the Dartmouth basketball team's appeal will be resolved anytime soon.  And who knows where NIL monetization goes from here.  Add the recent expansions of MLS Next Pro and USL 2 (both allow for international players) and the changes to the NCAA transfer portal and Covid eligibility rules among others and collectively these events are significant as it relates to talent identification.

In the search for talent endowments and academic reputations certainly help.  But I believe programs will be more successful following these events even if the impacts are indirect.  No disrespect to the poster who recently called out 5 storied D3 programs and would take even odds vs the field, but due to volatility in talent sources I'm taking the field.  This year, next year, the year after that, etc.*  Those programs likely deserve to be called out for their past quality over the years, but it's a brave new world in terms of talent. A world that includes some deferring a NESCAC education by taking a gap year.

*point being that I believe there will not be dynasties for the foreseeable future, not that I like 59-5 odds.  And I realize the timing of this post leaves only one of the five this year and may be unfair hindsight, but I still believe it to be true for the next several years.

 

[soccerpapa]

UNITED SOCCER COACHES ALL- REGION - INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS


Region 1:   10
Region 2:   0
Region 3:   4
Region 4:   4
Region 5:    3
Region 6     5
Region 7     1
Region 8     6
Region 9     7
Region 10   2

[SierraFD3soccer]

I am highly skeptical that the numbers posted mirror the general enrollment numbers. A quick check sees Oregon State with 8.9 percent foreign student enrollment. Kentucky is 4 percent. Memphis is 3 percent.

Not going to even look up Marshall or WVA. 

[Freddyfud]

Another obvious constraint is budget which generally might be less of a challenge for UAAs and NESCACs when compared to other institutions.  Son is heading to MLS Next Fest in Phoenix 3 weeks from now.  For institutions attending this event clearly budget and effort are required especially as the post season isn't finished yet for some.  While I can't find a list yet of colleges attending here is a list for last year's event:

https://latdpelite.com/over-200-coaches-at-mls-next-fest/

You can see most of the NESCACs and a bunch of the UAAs including Emory attended plus a few others from other conferences. 

Edit:  and how could I forget to mention budget and effort on the part of parents 

List of colleges for next week's Phoenix event is out now:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J48IhuTffXj82qXlTXDcPXufJiuZiTOdKZy4zMbY8Y8/edit?usp=sharing

Out of 191 confirmed, 39 are D3. UAA and NESCAC leading the way but also see some from regions VIII, IX and X.

[Flying Weasel]

Another obvious constraint is budget which generally might be less of a challenge for UAAs and NESCACs when compared to other institutions.  Son is heading to MLS Next Fest in Phoenix 3 weeks from now.  For institutions attending this event clearly budget and effort are required especially as the post season isn't finished yet for some.  While I can't find a list yet of colleges attending here is a list for last year's event:

https://latdpelite.com/over-200-coaches-at-mls-next-fest/

You can see most of the NESCACs and a bunch of the UAAs including Emory attended plus a few others from other conferences. 

Edit:  and how could I forget to mention budget and effort on the part of parents 

List of colleges for next week's Phoenix event is out now:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J48IhuTffXj82qXlTXDcPXufJiuZiTOdKZy4zMbY8Y8/edit?usp=sharing

Out of 191 confirmed, 39 are D3. UAA and NESCAC leading the way but also see some from regions VIII, IX and X.

FYI - On a quick pass, you can also add Clarkson, Hobart, UT-Dallas and WashU as D3's.  Were you able to confirm that the Univ. of St. Thomas is the Texas institution instead of the Minnesota one that just recently moved to Division I?