Massey

[PaulNewman]

Never paid much attention to Massey...but I have recently because of D3soccer.com languishing in a coma in a hospital room waiting for the plug to be pulled...and trying to find ways go through a list of teams fairly rapidly with records updated (as long as you wait until the next day).  And for the most part, while in some instances I would dispute the order, the "correct" teams for a top 20 or top 25 can be found among the top 30-35 teams in Massey.  I'm kind of leaning positively on Massey at this point.

That said, can someone explain the following in a way a 5th grader could understand?   What accounts for the data inputs landing Redlands at #7 (5-0-0), Montclair at #23 (5-0-1), Widener at #29 (5-0), Virginia Wesleyan at #37 (6-0-0), and Nebraska Wesleyan ay #69 (6-0-1)?  I don't see anything in the Redlands schedule to date that might account for the divergence.

[Ron Boerger]

Never paid much attention to Massey...but I have recently because of D3soccer.com languishing in a coma in a hospital room waiting for the plug to be pulled...and trying to find ways go through a list of teams fairly rapidly with records updated (as long as you wait until the next day).  And for the most part, while in some instances I would dispute the order, the "correct" teams for a top 20 or top 25 can be found among the top 30-35 teams in Massey.  I'm kind of leaning positively on Massey at this point.

That said, can someone explain the following in a way a 5th grader could understand?   What accounts for the data inputs landing Redlands at #7 (5-0-0), Montclair at #23 (5-0-1), Widener at #29 (5-0), Virginia Wesleyan at #37 (6-0-0), and Nebraska Wesleyan ay #69 (6-0-1)?  I don't see anything in the Redlands schedule to date that might account for the divergence.

Having no clue about any of these teams, I'm pretty sure Massey includes prior year results or some kind of history in their calculations.  Opponent SOS factors in too.  But if you want an actual answer from the source, reach out to @LogHanRatings on Xitter, Logan is quite responsive there.

[PaulNewman]

Never paid much attention to Massey...but I have recently because of D3soccer.com languishing in a coma in a hospital room waiting for the plug to be pulled...and trying to find ways go through a list of teams fairly rapidly with records updated (as long as you wait until the next day).  And for the most part, while in some instances I would dispute the order, the "correct" teams for a top 20 or top 25 can be found among the top 30-35 teams in Massey.  I'm kind of leaning positively on Massey at this point.

That said, can someone explain the following in a way a 5th grader could understand?   What accounts for the data inputs landing Redlands at #7 (5-0-0), Montclair at #23 (5-0-1), Widener at #29 (5-0), Virginia Wesleyan at #37 (6-0-0), and Nebraska Wesleyan ay #69 (6-0-1)?  I don't see anything in the Redlands schedule to date that might account for the divergence.

Having no clue about any of these teams, I'm pretty sure Massey includes prior year results or some kind of history in their calculations.  Opponent SOS factors in too.  But if you want an actual answer from the source, reach out to @LogHanRatings on Xitter, Logan is quite responsive there.

Thanks.  Yes, I'm thinking there must be some historical input as there is nothing obvious in Redlands' schedule (or in opponents schedules) to explain the difference.

[WUPHF]

You can e-mail Ken Massey directly and he will respond.

He is definitely using prior season data. They all do.

Redlands does have a 9-0 win over a non-Division III opponent and goal differential is a big part of the formula as far as I understand.

I once believed that the non-D3 data was not included, based on casual observations of the movement of teams, but I e-mailed Ken and well, I was wrong.

[Kuiper]

I think we established earlier this year that Massey past season influence went back 3-4 seasons, which would be necessary in Redlands' case because last year was a down year for them.  And Redlands does have a 9-0 victory, but it was against a brand new NAIA side that is pretty bad.  Cal Tech beat the same team 5-1.

[WUPHF]

I think we established earlier this year that Massey past season influence went back 3-4 seasons, which would be necessary in Redlands' case because last year was a down year for them.  And Redlands does have a 9-0 victory, but it was against a brand new NAIA side that is pretty bad.  Cal Tech beat the same team 5-1.

I do not know this to be true, but I remember reading thoughts on goal differential and I thinking that it was a flaw in the formula so a big win over a bad team looks better than others.

I noticed that the Washington University women's soccer team dropped a spot after a 4-0 win against a Top 150 Rhodes.  I am not sure how bad the Bears had to win to not drop.

[paclassic89]

SOS.  The answer is generally always SOS.   Early on in the season there is perceived SOS based on the board's opinion of teams and actual SOS. Montclair's actual SOS so far is pretty bad.  I have OW% at .4667 and OOW% at .5463.  Contrast that with Redlands (only 2 games counted against D3 competition) who has an OW% of .8333 and OOW% of .6562

[Gray Fox]

Massey includes  NESCAC teams in their rankings for football, and they haven't played outside their conference in years.

[PaulNewman]

It's interesting because I don't feel like I have near enough data to put Redlands in my top 25 even if inclined to do so.  I've actually got probably 8-10 teams ahead of them who I have just outside the cut-off.

[WUPHF]

Massey includes  NESCAC teams in their rankings for football, and they haven't played outside their conference in years.

I was curious to see how they lined up and so I looked.  Interestingly, I do not see any NESCAC schools in the football rankings.

[EnmoreCat]

I like it, I am not smart enough to say how empirically robust it is, but for what it is, it serves a definite purpose.  I am sure there could be a subjective angle to the SOS, but in general, it works for me.  It certainly helps on the tipping!

[Gray Fox]

Massey includes  NESCAC teams in their rankings for football, and they haven't played outside their conference in years.

I was curious to see how they lined up and so I looked.  Interestingly, I do not see any NESCAC schools in the football rankings.

They seem to come and go. Here is what I just have.
https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/ncaa-d3/ratings   Number 4, 22 etc.

[WUPHF]

I guess it depends how you get there as to whether or not the NESCAC teams appear.  Interesting.

[Gray Fox]

I guess it depends how you get there as to whether or not the NESCAC teams appear.  Interesting.

They have been there for years.  This year, I sometimes see them and sometimes not.  They also sometimes have their own "section".  But the point of this discussion is whether the soccer rankings are only for this year.  They are not.

[Domino1195]

Been using Massey for years for college bball mostly - but for those who bet on sports - Massey is a good tool to spot odds/lines that may be inflated.