Pool C 2023

[Ralph Turner]

We have 6 weeks of play and some of the "usuals" are now fighting, just for a Pool A bid, IMHO. for this exercise, let's assume everyone wins out.

OAC - John Carroll has a loss to UWW. A win over UMU might throw UMU into Pool C.

ASC - HSU (loss to Endicott) and UMHB (2-3) are out of contention for Pool C. HSU hosts UMHB on 10/28

SAA - Berry looks strong from Region 3. Has loss to Trinity, but not much else on the resume to help.

WIAC - UWW - If both UWL and UWW, run the table, then UWW would be in contention.

MIAC - Johnnies - If Johnnies lose to Bethel in the Conference Championship, might their 2 losses be too much for consideration? Bethel needs to win out.

CCIW - Wheaton - If they win out, they have a non-conference win over UWO. Only loss was to NCC, so they will look strong at 9-1.

ARC - Wartburg at 9-1 would look good if Central beats them to earn the Pool A. (Hmmm, just what is the tie-breaker in the ARC if Wart, Coe and Central are tri-champs?)

From the ARC website 1.7. In the case of a tie in league standings, the following will be used to determine the automatic qualifier berth in the NCAA
playoffs:
1.7.1. Head-to-head competition: The head-to-head will be the cumulative records versus the tied teams.
1.7.2. When head-to-head does not break the tie, the team(s) advancing to the NCAA Championships most recently is (are)
eliminated and the criteria returns to head-to-head competition, if necessary.
1.7.3. When head-to-head competition and elimination of the most recent playoff team does not break the tie, a coin flip will
determine the automatic qualifier. The American Rivers Commissioner and the Chair of the Management Council shall
conduct the coin flip. Other witnesses may be called on to be observers, if necessary.
1.7.4. The tie-breaker process shall always return to head-to-head competition once a team(s) has been eliminated by most
recent NCAA playoff competition.

LL- Is a 9-1 Union with a loss to Ithaca strong enough? Do losses to JHU and then Union knock an 8-2 Ithaca out of the picture, even if they win the Cortaca?

E8 - Brockport and Cortland -- Has Susquehanna dealt a lethal blow to the Pool C chances for either? Cort still has Brockport and Ithaca.

MAC - both Del Val and Leb Valley have non-conference losses to mess up their records.

Who else is on the radar? This is fun!

(Corrections and omissions are appreciated and acknowledged.)

NWC. Linfield hosting Whitworth ?   Nov 11th game. Tip of the hat to desertcat1. Does the 8-1 loser with a so-so SOS really have a chance with only 4 Pool C bids? In an expanded playoff, beyond 32-teams and with more Pool C bids, maybe.

[smedindy]

I don't know if a one loss DePauw or Wabash (one d3) loss will have an argument for a C....

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I'll work on the Pool C eliminator and get it posted tonight.

[Ralph Turner]

I'll work on the Pool C eliminator and get it posted tonight.

+1! FCGG

I hope you know how much we appreciate you and your contributions!

[MRMIKESMITH]

We have 6 weeks of play and some of the "usuals" are now fighting, just for a Pool A bid, IMHO. for this exercise, let's assume everyone wins out.

OAC - John Carroll has a loss to UWW. A win over UMU might throw UMU into Pool C.

ASC - HSU (loss to Endicott) and UMHB (2-3) are out of contention for Pool C. HSU hosts UMHB on 10/28

SAA - Berry looks strong from Region 3. Has loss to Trinity, but not much else on the resume to help.

WIAC - UWW - If both UWL and UWW, run the table, then UWW would be in contention.

MIAC - Johnnies - If Johnnies lose to Bethel in the Conference Championship, might their 2 losses be too much for consideration? Bethel needs to win out.

CCIW - Wheaton - If they win out, they have a non-conference win over UWO. Only loss was to NCC, so they will look strong at 9-1.

ARC - Wartburg at 9-1 would look good if Central beats them to earn the Pool A. (Hmmm, just what is the tie-breaker in the ARC if Wart, Coe and Central are tri-champs?)

From the ARC website 1.7. In the case of a tie in league standings, the following will be used to determine the automatic qualifier berth in the NCAA
playoffs:
1.7.1. Head-to-head competition: The head-to-head will be the cumulative records versus the tied teams.
1.7.2. When head-to-head does not break the tie, the team(s) advancing to the NCAA Championships most recently is (are)
eliminated and the criteria returns to head-to-head competition, if necessary.
1.7.3. When head-to-head competition and elimination of the most recent playoff team does not break the tie, a coin flip will
determine the automatic qualifier. The American Rivers Commissioner and the Chair of the Management Council shall
conduct the coin flip. Other witnesses may be called on to be observers, if necessary.
1.7.4. The tie-breaker process shall always return to head-to-head competition once a team(s) has been eliminated by most
recent NCAA playoff competition.

LL- Is a 9-1 Union with a loss to Ithaca strong enough? Do losses to JHU and then Union knock an 8-2 Ithaca out of the picture, even if they win the Cortaca?

E8 - Brockport and Cortland -- Has Susquehanna dealt a lethal blow to the Pool C chances for either? Cort still has Brockport and Ithaca.

MAC - both Del Val and Leb Valley have non-conference losses to mess up their records.

Who else is on the radar? This is fun!

(Corrections and omissions are appreciated and acknowledged.)

CC - Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins will have at least 2/3 regional rank wins.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Remember that this is for Pool C purposes. Teams eliminated here can still make the playoffs via pool A. Not all teams listed have a realistic shot at pool C.

Teams in red must have at least 3 losses to be pool C. (Either have 3 losses already like Mary Hardin-Baylor or must pick up a 3rd loss to not be pool A like Chris Newport)
Teams in grey must have at least 2 losses to be pool C. (Either have 2 losses already including a conference loss like UW-Oshkosh or must pick up a 2nd loss to not be pool A like UW-La Crosse)
Teams in white could be pool C with just 1 loss. (Either have 1 loss which is in conference like UW-Whitewater or is undefeated like UW-River Falls)
An asterisk next to a team means a non-D3 loss which isn't being counted towards the loss limits.

[Etchglow]

Remember that this is for Pool C purposes. Teams eliminated here can still make the playoffs via pool A. Not all teams listed have a realistic shot at pool C.

Teams in red must have at least 3 losses to be pool C. (Either have 3 losses already like Mary Hardin-Baylor or must pick up a 3rd loss to not be pool A like Chris Newport)
Teams in grey must have at least 2 losses to be pool C. (Either have 2 losses already including a conference loss like UW-Oshkosh or must pick up a 2nd loss to not be pool A like UW-La Crosse)
Teams in white could be pool C with just 1 loss. (Either have 1 loss which is in conference like UW-Whitewater or is undefeated like UW-River Falls)
An asterisk next to a team means a non-D3 loss which isn't being counted towards the loss limits.

I don't think Sul Ross is eligible as they're transitioning to D2.  I've seen mention that their games don't even count as conference games this year.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Looking way ahead and with only 4 at-large bids. UWW vs. UW-RF will be a key game (well duh), if UW-RF wins and continues to win out, I believe that could possibly knock out a UW-W. Obviously, UW-La Crosse  control its own destiny, but a loss to UW-RF in Week 10 may or may not put them on the outside looking in, but if Hardin-Simmons can get healthy and get back to its level and finally get over the UMHB hump, would prove worthy for UW-L. Now, in the ASC, UMHB needs to run the table to get into playoff, a loss to HSU, I would say officially eliminate them and possibly can remove a RR win for UW-W, thus possibly lowering their Pool C. Now over in SAA land, it appears that Trinity is on its away in securing it's automatic bid. Berry needs a lot of chaos in WIAC, CC, and LL land and it needs Huntingdon to appear in the R3 rankings. Berry making the field gives USAC leader Belhaven a fair matchup if UMHB doesn't run the table as mentioned in this morning podcast that Belhaven is within 500 miles of UMHB, but not Trinity. Moving along to LL, Ithaca beating RPI avoids the typical LL conundrum that we find ourselves seeing, but could certainly find its way by season end, nevertheless, this week as Ithaca and Union face-off, a loss by Ithaca, doesn't necessary knock them out of Pool C contention, but makes it very difficult when committee decide between other potential 1 loss teams from the likes of the WIAC, CCIW, SAA, and possibly the OAC. Then there CC land, Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins appear to be on a collision course for their Oct 28th meeting, but Hopkins still has to face current 1 loss teams in Dickinson, F&M, and Ursinus. The Mules have yet to face Dickson and F&M. I think the CC moving from 10 conference opponents to 8, definitely could help with its SOS much more than in the past, when it was always hovering around the .500 mark. Lastly, in my projected bracket, I have Wheaton as the best Pool C candidate with them having played UW-O and getting the WIAC bump in SOS as oppose to both a not so much bump that WASHU and Augustana OOC games against Hendrix and Simpson, respectively.

Overall, my initial Pool C candidates are Muhlenberg, Wheaton, Berry, and UW-L. First 4 out: Union, UW-W, W&J, and Brockport

[Ralph Turner]

The ASC only gets 1 bid this year. The UMHB at HSU game on 10/28 is "winner takes all".

[desertcat1]

We have 6 weeks of play and some of the "usuals" are now fighting, just for a Pool A bid, IMHO. for this exercise, let's assume everyone wins out.

OAC - John Carroll has a loss to UWW. A win over UMU might throw UMU into Pool C.

ASC - HSU (loss to Endicott) and UMHB (2-3) are out of contention for Pool C. HSU hosts UMHB on 10/28

SAA - Berry looks strong from Region 3. Has loss to Trinity, but not much else on the resume to help.

WIAC - UWW - If both UWL and UWW, run the table, then UWW would be in contention.

MIAC - Johnnies - If Johnnies lose to Bethel in the Conference Championship, might their 2 losses be too much for consideration? Bethel needs to win out.

CCIW - Wheaton - If they win out, they have a non-conference win over UWO. Only loss was to NCC, so they will look strong at 9-1.

ARC - Wartburg at 9-1 would look good if Central beats them to earn the Pool A. (Hmmm, just what is the tie-breaker in the ARC if Wart, Coe and Central are tri-champs?)

From the ARC website 1.7. In the case of a tie in league standings, the following will be used to determine the automatic qualifier berth in the NCAA
playoffs:
1.7.1. Head-to-head competition: The head-to-head will be the cumulative records versus the tied teams.
1.7.2. When head-to-head does not break the tie, the team(s) advancing to the NCAA Championships most recently is (are)
eliminated and the criteria returns to head-to-head competition, if necessary.
1.7.3. When head-to-head competition and elimination of the most recent playoff team does not break the tie, a coin flip will
determine the automatic qualifier. The American Rivers Commissioner and the Chair of the Management Council shall
conduct the coin flip. Other witnesses may be called on to be observers, if necessary.
1.7.4. The tie-breaker process shall always return to head-to-head competition once a team(s) has been eliminated by most
recent NCAA playoff competition.

LL- Is a 9-1 Union with a loss to Ithaca strong enough? Do losses to JHU and then Union knock an 8-2 Ithaca out of the picture, even if they win the Cortaca?

E8 - Brockport and Cortland -- Has Susquehanna dealt a lethal blow to the Pool C chances for either? Cort still has Brockport and Ithaca.

MAC - both Del Val and Leb Valley have non-conference losses to mess up their records.

Who else is on the radar? This is fun!

(Corrections and omissions are appreciated and acknowledged.)

Ralph ,   You could add NWC. Linfield / Whit worth ?   Nov game. 

[Ralph Turner]

Yes!

Week #11, 11/11/2023.  Whitworth at Linfield. My concern is that the 9-game schedules and the less than spectacular SOS's really hinder the chances of an 8-1 loser.

I think that an 8-1 NWC runner-up muddies the water for those 2-loss teams.

[Ron Boerger]

Trinity would be a Pool A even with two losses since it holds the H2H against Berry.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Trinity would be a Pool A even with two losses since it holds the H2H against Berry.

But if Sewanee or Hendrix runs the table, including upsetting Trinity, then they could be a 2 loss pool C. Extremely unlikely but is still possible for now.

[D3fanboy]

with only four spots, I can't wait for this thread to jump off with the predictive regional rankings and playoff scenarios.  D3FB is the best

[smedindy]

I'm not looking forward to the bellyaching about the 'unworthy' A's.

I think this season's weirdness more than anything shows that you can win your league.