Pool C 2023

[Captainred81]

Well now that UW-L has defeated UWW and UWW has defeated UWRF, I think it is more likely that all three make it in the playoffs. 

It's a crazy world out there.  If UWRF beat LAX and all three win all the rest of their games, there would be a 3 way tie atop the WIAC.  Regardless of who the 'A' is #2 and #3 are stuck.  If UMHB wins out and wins the 'A' in ASC then Hardin Simmons has 2nd loss and is probably removed from contention.  If may affect LAX's chances of getting in.  If Hardin Simmons wins out it may affect UWW and and UWRF chances of getting in...

I like Wheaton, Berry to win out the year and be easy selections.  I think JHU beats Muhlenberg, but they get in anyway and last in is the winner of LAX/UWRF and first out is the loser if that game.  My outlier here is Coe/Central.  I think either one of them has a shot but not sure who. 

So in the end... as of today...  and barring any unexpected outcomes... I like Wheaton, Berry, UWW, and .....Muhlenberg

This means Hopkins beats the Mules, but the Mules squeak in...UW LAX beats UWRF and they get to the table, but not enough pool c's left

Others left at the table UWRF, Coe, John Carroll, Hardin Simmons, RPI, Kings

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

A lot has happened since I last posted the eliminator (both in D3 and to me). Let's see where we stand with 3 weeks left. Teams with a gold border are currently leading or tied for their conference lead.





Things are fairly straightforward in the first four regions.
If Central beats Wartburg we could have a pair of 1 loss pool C teams in the ARC. Same thing in the CCIW should Augustana beat North Central in week 11.

[Inkblot]

Since the MIAC standings only include divisional games, St. John's can still be a two-loss Pool C candidate.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Since the MIAC standings only include divisional games, St. John's can still be a two-loss Pool C candidate.

St John's already has 2 losses. Unless H2H isn't the tiebreaker over Carleton for the division title, if they win out that would include the conference title game and a pool A bid.

[Inkblot]

Since the MIAC standings only include divisional games, St. John's can still be a two-loss Pool C candidate.

St John's already has 2 losses. Unless H2H isn't the tiebreaker over Carleton for the division title, if they win out that would include the conference title game and a pool A bid.

Gustavus Adolphus is 2-0 in division.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Since the MIAC standings only include divisional games, St. John's can still be a two-loss Pool C candidate.

St John's already has 2 losses. Unless H2H isn't the tiebreaker over Carleton for the division title, if they win out that would include the conference title game and a pool A bid.

Gustavus Adolphus is 2-0 in division.

Well the MIAC is dumb I don't know of another conference that says conference games don't count just because it's the other division.
I'll make the adjustments for next week

[ExTartanPlayer]

As a fan of a (probably longshot) Pool C hopeful, a fun idea that's been rolling around my head is "if you're a fan of a Pool C hopeful, what games should you be following and who should you be rooting for?"

This week, a few games to keep an eye on are:

UMHB vs Hardin-Simmons: I think the outcome you should be rooting for here is Hardin Simmons to beat UMHB. 

Hypothetical UMHB Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 6-4, 0-4 vs. RRO's
Hypothetical HSU Pool C resume  (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 8-2, 1-2 (?) vs. RRO's

I can't imagine anybody is putting a four-loss UMHB team in the playoffs via Pool C (monster SoS and four "results" against RRO's aside...it would be four losses, two of them not especially close).  If UMHB wins, I think 8-2 HSU would be a strong candidate in Pool C because they'll have decent SoS, a likely 1-2 record vs RRO's and potentially one of the best wins anyone in the entire country will have (a road win vs. UW-La Crosse, potential WIAC champion).  If we see any 8-2's going in via Pool C, I think HSU is a strong candidate.  So if you're a fan of a potential Pool C team, I think you want HSU to beat UMHB, take the Pool A bid and likely eliminate the possibility of a Pool C team out of the ASC.

Johns Hopkins vs Muhlenberg: I think here you want to see Johns Hopkins beat Muhlenberg.

Hypothetical Johns Hopkins Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 9-1, 1-1 (or maybe 2-1) vs. RRO's
Hypothetical Muhlenberg Pool C resume: 9-1, 0-1 vs. RRO's

Both unbeaten, Hopkins has a strong OOC result with a win over likely LL champ Ithaca and NJAC contender Christopher Newport.  I suspect JHU will finish with higher SoS and potentially could have 2 wins vs. regionally ranked opponents if CNU runs the table (I am guessing that Ithaca still finishes the year in RR's even if they lose to Cortland in the season ender).  A possible 9-1 JHU with an RRO or two would be stronger candidate than 9-1 Muhlenberg, who I think is less likely to score any regionally ranked wins (I mean...maybe if Moravian shocks Susquehanna and runs the table to win the Landmark).  I think it's always dicey to hope for a Pool C if you're 9-1, 0-1 with middling SoS.  So here, I think you want JHU (the stronger of the hypothetical Pool C candidates) to win, take the Pool A and knock the relatively weaker Pool C candidate in Muhlenberg into Pool C.

Those are the two biggest ones that caught my attention.  A few others worth brief mention:

Endicott vs Husson: don't laugh!  The reasoning here is that Endicott would actually have a decent Pool C resume if they lost this game (8-2, but possibly 1-2 or 1-1 vs RRO's) and Husson (who is 5-2, albeit not against a particularly impressive schedule) went on the claim the CCC's Pool A bid.  Would "close loss vs. 9-1 Ithaca, big win vs. 8-2 Hardin-Simmons" be enough to sneak in even if they had a loss to Husson?  I don't know, but I think you'd rather see Endicott win and seal up the CCC so they're not part of the Pool C equation.  Anybody with a couple RRO results and a win is a possible Pool C candidate.  Root for Endicott to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.

Moravian vs Susquehanna: also a bit of a weird one for this list, but similar profile to the game above.  Moravian is still unbeaten in the Landmark and could take the conference if they win out, leaving 9-1 Susquehanna in Pool C.  Root for Susquehanna to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.

Delaware Valley vs Stevenson: both teams currently 6-1.  Winner probably takes the conference.  Loser has a chance to finish 8-2.  I don't think either actually has a very strong Pool C resume to be honest so this probably doesn't matter.

Might be a few others, but I'm just calling out a few games where either a) a likely conference favorite is in a game against one of the few remaining teams that could overtake them for their Pool A bid, potentially knocking one of these teams into the Pool C mix or b) a conference title is (more or less) on the line and the loser is likely going into the Pool C mix.

[Pat Coleman]

Good stuff!

[JCUStreaks70]

As a fan of a (probably longshot) Pool C hopeful, a fun idea that's been rolling around my head is "if you're a fan of a Pool C hopeful, what games should you be following and who should you be rooting for?"

This week, a few games to keep an eye on are:

UMHB vs Hardin-Simmons: I think the outcome you should be rooting for here is Hardin Simmons to beat UMHB. 

Hypothetical UMHB Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 6-4, 0-4 vs. RRO's
Hypothetical HSU Pool C resume  (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 8-2, 1-2 (?) vs. RRO's

I can't imagine anybody is putting a four-loss UMHB team in the playoffs via Pool C (monster SoS and four "results" against RRO's aside...it would be four losses, two of them not especially close).  If UMHB wins, I think 8-2 HSU would be a strong candidate in Pool C because they'll have decent SoS, a likely 1-2 record vs RRO's and potentially one of the best wins anyone in the entire country will have (a road win vs. UW-La Crosse, potential WIAC champion).  If we see any 8-2's going in via Pool C, I think HSU is a strong candidate.  So if you're a fan of a potential Pool C team, I think you want HSU to beat UMHB, take the Pool A bid and likely eliminate the possibility of a Pool C team out of the ASC.

Johns Hopkins vs Muhlenberg: I think here you want to see Johns Hopkins beat Muhlenberg.

Hypothetical Johns Hopkins Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 9-1, 1-1 (or maybe 2-1) vs. RRO's
Hypothetical Muhlenberg Pool C resume: 9-1, 0-1 vs. RRO's

Both unbeaten, Hopkins has a strong OOC result with a win over likely LL champ Ithaca and NJAC contender Christopher Newport.  I suspect JHU will finish with higher SoS and potentially could have 2 wins vs. regionally ranked opponents if CNU runs the table (I am guessing that Ithaca still finishes the year in RR's even if they lose to Cortland in the season ender).  A possible 9-1 JHU with an RRO or two would be stronger candidate than 9-1 Muhlenberg, who I think is less likely to score any regionally ranked wins (I mean...maybe if Moravian shocks Susquehanna and runs the table to win the Landmark).  I think it's always dicey to hope for a Pool C if you're 9-1, 0-1 with middling SoS.  So here, I think you want JHU (the stronger of the hypothetical Pool C candidates) to win, take the Pool A and knock the relatively weaker Pool C candidate in Muhlenberg into Pool C.

Those are the two biggest ones that caught my attention.  A few others worth brief mention:

Endicott vs Husson: don't laugh!  The reasoning here is that Endicott would actually have a decent Pool C resume if they lost this game (8-2, but possibly 1-2 or 1-1 vs RRO's) and Husson (who is 5-2, albeit not against a particularly impressive schedule) went on the claim the CCC's Pool A bid.  Would "close loss vs. 9-1 Ithaca, big win vs. 8-2 Hardin-Simmons" be enough to sneak in even if they had a loss to Husson?  I don't know, but I think you'd rather see Endicott win and seal up the CCC so they're not part of the Pool C equation.  Anybody with a couple RRO results and a win is a possible Pool C candidate.  Root for Endicott to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.

Moravian vs Susquehanna: also a bit of a weird one for this list, but similar profile to the game above.  Moravian is still unbeaten in the Landmark and could take the conference if they win out, leaving 9-1 Susquehanna in Pool C.  Root for Susquehanna to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.

Delaware Valley vs Stevenson: both teams currently 6-1.  Winner probably takes the conference.  Loser has a chance to finish 8-2.  I don't think either actually has a very strong Pool C resume to be honest so this probably doesn't matter.

Might be a few others, but I'm just calling out a few games where either a) a likely conference favorite is in a game against one of the few remaining teams that could overtake them for their Pool A bid, potentially knocking one of these teams into the Pool C mix or b) a conference title is (more or less) on the line and the loser is likely going into the Pool C mix.

Ah the Pool C hopeful fandom life, I know it well.... The 40 team playoff cannot come soon enough.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I actually disagree on that - to be honest I would be fine with a playoff that was literally ONLY the conference champions! But since this is what we got, I'll have fun with it. Just a few Pool C slots is probably ideal - your playoff dreams aren't totally over with a loss but now you get to white knuckle it and suddenly care about games far from your home because of the possible ripple effects.

John Carroll will be making an appearance in this space if I keep doing a weekly roundup of the big Pool C-impacting matchups.

There are basically two categories:

1. Games where an undefeated team who's likely to take their Pool A bid could possibly lose to someone that would take it instead. Here you always want the favorite to win - the fewer 9-1 Pool C teams the better...

2. Games where a team that's already in the Pool C mix with a loss or two could take another. Here you always want them to lose. Get all those 9-1's down to 8-2 and those 8-2's down to 7-3!

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?

[IC798891]

If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?

Might depend on the two rivalry games in upstate NY. It'd help Mount a lot if Union lost to RPI, or even if they won, if IC loses to Cortland

[JCUStreaks70]

If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?

Recency bias.. The committee will never keep Mount out, in my opinion.

[bleedpurple]

If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?

I tend to agree with Streaks. But at the same time, on the podcast today Greg listed Mount with a bunch of teams that all look the same per criterion. And I'm hearing the current National Chair is a stickler for strict adherence to the criterion.

But still, no Mount with one loss?  That would feel like a shock to the system. The Chari did say their goal was to make it the best tournament possible, so that would not be consistent with Mount on the sidelines.

[D3fanboy]

If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?

I tend to agree with Streaks. But at the same time, on the podcast today Greg listed Mount with a bunch of teams that all look the same per criterion. And I'm hearing the current National Chair is a stickler for strict adherence to the criterion.

But still, no Mount with one loss?  That would feel like a shock to the system. The Chari did say their goal was to make it the best tournament possible, so that would not be consistent with Mount on the sidelines.

that's all you needed to say.


btw, I can never keep it straight.  Is it "once ranked always ranked" in terms of RRO? or what week does that count?