Pool C 2023

[MRMIKESMITH]

If John Carroll beats Mount Union and both finish 9-1, does Mount Union earn a Pool C Bid?

Recency bias.. The committee will never keep Mount out, in my opinion.

I agree, it's not going to happen. A team like Union would probably be on the outside looking in...See final regional rankings 2016 https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2016/final-regional-ranking

[ExTartanPlayer]

I'm also in agreement that a 9-1 Mount Union has a 100% chance of making the field, despite the fact that their 2023 on-paper blinded resume will look approximately equal to just about every other 9-1 league runnerup who didn't play a major OOC game (Muhlenberg, Carnegie Mellon, and the like).

Anyways, I'm still gonna mention the Mount-JCU game when I do this week's roundup of games with Pool C leverage and who you should root for in the other games if you're a fan of a potential Pool C hopeful...

[JCUStreaks70]

I'm also in agreement that a 9-1 Mount Union has a 100% chance of making the field, despite the fact that their 2023 on-paper blinded resume will look approximately equal to just about every other 9-1 league runnerup who didn't play a major OOC game (Muhlenberg, Carnegie Mellon, and the like).

Anyways, I'm still gonna mention the Mount-JCU game when I do this week's roundup of games with Pool C leverage and who you should root for in the other games if you're a fan of a potential Pool C hopeful...

John Carroll.. The answer is John Carroll.

[tigerguy]

Anyone know why the NCAA started doing regional rankings for D2 last week, and D3 will only begin next week? I presume there is a difference in how the D2 bracket/pairings work vs D3, but I'm curious why it matters to the point they begin doing regional rankings for D2 three weeks before they begin doing D3.

[Ralph Turner]

Anyone know why the NCAA started doing regional rankings for D2 last week, and D3 will only begin next week? I presume there is a difference in how the D2 bracket/pairings work vs D3, but I'm curious why it matters to the point they begin doing regional rankings for D2 three weeks before they begin doing D3.

I do not believe that D2 conferences have automatic qualifiers.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I think I have everything correct but it's always possible I'm wrong.
Teams with a gold outline currently lead/tied for lead.

[bleedpurple]

I'm pretty sure River Falls is a 2 loss Pool C. If they end up with one loss, they will be the Pool A.

[Inkblot]

I'm pretty sure River Falls is a 2 loss Pool C. If they end up with one loss, they will be the Pool A.

Not if La Crosse loses out and it ends up as a two-way tie.

[bleedpurple]

I'm pretty sure River Falls is a 2 loss Pool C. If they end up with one loss, they will be the Pool A.

Not if La Crosse loses out and it ends up as a two-way tie.

Oh that's right. They are slotted correctly.  The same part of my brain that wouldn't let me believe in the Tooth Fairy, wouldn't let me believe Stevens Point could beat La Crosse.  But you are right, for the purposes of this exercise, they are absolutely listed correctly. My mistake. Carry on.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I believe everything is correct but as always corrections are welcome.

[tf37]

Washington U should be red, they (barely) picked up their third loss on Saturday.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans).  Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen.  There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.

The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ.  So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose.  RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.

In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win.  So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset.  If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C.  You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.

One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming.  Why?  Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C.  With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened.  So you want to root for Susquehanna.

TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna).  Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.

[IC798891]

Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans).  Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen.  There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.

The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ.  So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose.  RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.

In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win.  So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset.  If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C.  You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.

One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming.  Why?  Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C.  With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened.  So you want to root for Susquehanna.

TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna).  Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.

I'm not worried about Susquehanna at all. Lycoming is awful. As in, 55- and 56-point losses to teams Susquehanna beat awful.

[lmitzel]

Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans).  Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen.  There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.

The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ.  So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose.  RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.

In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win.  So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset.  If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C.  You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.

One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming.  Why?  Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C.  With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened.  So you want to root for Susquehanna.

TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna).  Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.

I'm not worried about Susquehanna at all. Lycoming is awful. As in, 55- and 56-point losses to teams Susquehanna beat awful.

Honestly, similar story in the CCIW given Augie lost by 7 to a Wheaton team NCC beat by 19 (and if you want to go a layer deeper, Augie beat WashU by 18; NCC won by 46). I'm not looking past this week, but I'm pretty confident in the chalk.

[USee]

Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans).  Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen.  There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.

The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ.  So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose.  RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.

In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win.  So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset.  If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C.  You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.

One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming.  Why?  Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C.  With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened.  So you want to root for Susquehanna.

TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna).  Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.

I'm not worried about Susquehanna at all. Lycoming is awful. As in, 55- and 56-point losses to teams Susquehanna beat awful.

Honestly, similar story in the CCIW given Augie lost by 7 to a Wheaton team NCC beat by 19 (and if you want to go a layer deeper, Augie beat WashU by 18; NCC won by 46). I'm not looking past this week, but I'm pretty confident in the chalk.

Famous last words. Comparitive scores....a very dangerous game.