Bracket Projection - 2023

[USee]

St Johns last year was fools gold. The committee took the bait on SOS. As is usually the case, a correction the other way is in the Cards (pun intended). NCC and Mt Union both play in a 10 team round robin conference and SOS will always be near .500. The committee knows this and will understand the undefeated previous year Stagg participants should be 1 and 2 seeds and on the opposite side of the bracket from each other.

[Ron Boerger]

St Johns last year was fools gold. The committee took the bait on SOS. As is usually the case, a correction the other way is in the Cards (pun intended). NCC and Mt Union both play in a 10 team round robin conference and SOS will always be near .500. The committee knows this and will understand the undefeated previous year Stagg participants should be 1 and 2 seeds and on the opposite side of the bracket from each other.

If the "committee knows this" then they are deliberately violating the NCAA's own published criteria. 

[USee]

Not true. Win % is a primary criteria, as is RRO and SOS. they can use those tools to come to that conclusion. I also strongly suspect people will be surprised and there will not be many 2 loss teams, if any, picked this year in Pool C. St Johns maybe in round 3/4.

[USee]

The other thing I would point out is that Regional Rank is not necessarily correlated to seeding. For NCC and Mt Union, the "previous championship results" criteria is applicable to seeding not RR. So after NCC wins this weekend over Augie they pick up another RRO, close the gap with Wartburg. I still think NCC is R5 #2 but after your apply "previous year" criteria in the seeding process, the top seeds are going to be NCC, Mt Union, Wartburg, and one of JHU, UWL, UWW and those are the 4 you will see in the corners of the bracket. All of this is completely within the written criteria by the NCAA.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.

#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State

North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.

[Ralph Turner]

Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.

#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State

North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.

Do I count three 1st round flights?  (Are we still at 500 miles? I did not see the answer in the FAQ's.)

Chapman to Linfield
Belhaven to UMU
MSJ to UW-L

Why not fly Belhaven to UW-L and drive MSJ to UMU? Two flights

[MRMIKESMITH]

Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.

#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State

North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.

Do I count three 1st round flights?  (Are we still at 500 miles? I did not see the answer in the FAQ's.)

Chapman to Linfield
Belhaven to UMU
MSJ to UW-L

Why not fly Belhaven to UW-L and drive MSJ to UMU? Two flights

It saves to keep all flight oriented teams in the same bracket. In your example, if Belhaven were to win first two rounds, that's an extra flight 3rd round.

[Ralph Turner]

Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.

#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State

North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.

Do I count three 1st round flights?  (Are we still at 500 miles? I did not see the answer in the FAQ's.)

Chapman to Linfield
Belhaven to UMU
MSJ to UW-L

Why not fly Belhaven to UW-L and drive MSJ to UMU? Two flights

It saves to keep all flight oriented teams in the same bracket. In your example, if Belhaven were to win first two rounds, that's an extra flight 3rd round.

Arguably, those are #2 vs #7 matchups. The only 2v7 or 1v8 matchups in which the underdog won that I can remember are 2022 Aurora vs UWW, and 2004 UMHB vs Trinity TX back in the 28-bid era..

In the 2nd round Belhaven to Wheaton IL is about 740 miles.

MSJ to either Bethel or Aurora in round #2 is another flight.

Respectfully, were I the committee chair, I would take my chances on Belhaven to UW-L.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Arguably, those are #2 vs #7 matchups. The only 2v7 or 1v8 matchups in which the underdog won that I can remember are 2022 Aurora vs UWW, and 2004 UMHB vs Trinity TX back in the 28-bid era..

In 2008 all four 7 seeds won in the first round (although two were facing 4 seeds) Wheaton beat 2nd seed Trine en route to the semifinals, Curry beat 2nd seed Ithaca, Wesley beat 4th seed Muhlenberg, and Wartburg beat 4th seed UWSP then 3rd seed Monmouth.
That was also the year three of the 1 seeds lost round two to 5 seeds (UWW beat Willamette, Wash & Jeff beat Millsaps, Franklin beat North Central)

[MRMIKESMITH]

Here is my updated bracket based upon new RR - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411.

#1 Seeds - North Central, Mount Union, Wartburg, and Johns Hopkins
#2 Seeds - Susquehanna, Linfield, UW-L, and Cortland State

North Central as in previous years and based upon previous years playoffs will have the #1 overall seed and host throughout the playoffs and be bracketed with Johns Hopkins Regional. Although Wartburg will have one of the best resume's, Mount Union got the overall #2 #1 seed, as such hosting the "weaker" travel bracket. Wartburg will have a much easier 1st round game this year, but will have the toughest road to the semi's solely due to regionality. Another thing of note, due to Belhaven not having a travel partner, I flew them into Alliance. I tried to setup the bracket so that we avoid rematches the 1st two rounds, but the committee is not obligated to do that and I expect to see a couple of rematches in the 2nd round this year.

Do I count three 1st round flights?  (Are we still at 500 miles? I did not see the answer in the FAQ's.)

Chapman to Linfield
Belhaven to UMU
MSJ to UW-L

Why not fly Belhaven to UW-L and drive MSJ to UMU? Two flights

It saves to keep all flight oriented teams in the same bracket. In your example, if Belhaven were to win first two rounds, that's an extra flight 3rd round.

Arguably, those are #2 vs #7 matchups. The only 2v7 or 1v8 matchups in which the underdog won that I can remember are 2022 Aurora vs UWW, and 2004 UMHB vs Trinity TX back in the 28-bid era..

In the 2nd round Belhaven to Wheaton IL is about 740 miles.

MSJ to either Bethel or Aurora in round #2 is another flight.

Respectfully, were I the committee chair, I would take my chances on Belhaven to UW-L.

That was an error. I forgot to switch Illinois College and MSJ. Great Catch!

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks FCGG!

[Ralph Turner]

IMHO, four 1st round match-ups that are tougher than bracketed. Can we call them 2nd round games occurring in the 1st round?

#9 R-MC vs "#22 Ithaca"
#11 Trinity vs "#22 HSU" 
#10 Aurora vs "23 Bethel"

In most other years, these 2 teams would not be meeting until round 2.
"#15 UWW vs #18 SJU"

I am really interested to see if Grove City has risen to the next tier of D-3. IMHO, a win over Wheaton convinces me.

[USee]

Just FYI on last year-SJU starting QB was hurt and did not play in playoffs-so fools gold? Not sure.

Aaron Syverson started and played all 12 games for St Johns last year, including the playoff loss to Wartburg so not sure what we are missing. Wartburg's QB did not play in the 4th quarter of that game however.

[sju56321]

I'm sorry-he did have a shoulder injury that he played through-but I guess most players are hurting by playoff time.

[sju56321]

Yes-I screwed up there-the year before he was injured and didn't play.