Bracket Projection - 2023

Started by MRMIKESMITH, October 08, 2023, 08:38:10 PM

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repete

Not so much SJU as fool's gold as Wartburg underrated. It's not like Wartburg beat SJU and got cleaned the next round (or even the round after that). They had a pretty good run last year if I recall.

USee

Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.

Ralph Turner

Out on the archipelago, I expect HSU at Trinity and Chapman at Whitworth to be a sub-bracket.

If home teams prevail, does undefeated Whitworth host in the second round?

repete

But what about that fifth at-large???? ;)

From the NCAA site:

The championship field consists of 32 teams in a single-elimination tournament. Twenty-eight of the 32 spots will be filled by teams that win their conference, earning an automatic bid. The remaining five spots will be given to at-large teams.

Pretty sloppy stuff in Indy.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-11-05/2023-ncaa-diii-football-championship-how-watch-selection-show-bracket-information

MRMIKESMITH

Here is my updated bracket - www.officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411

I went with the most cost effective bracket and avoided rematches until 3rd round. The committee could pair NCC with Johns Hopkins for fairness, but I don't think that'll be the case due to the R5 committee having Wartburg over NCC. Let me know your thoughts. Also, Minn. Morris can only go to a few schools so they are in the quadrant with the #1 Seed Wartburg and St. John's.

My previous bracket had Belhaven to Mount and Mount hosting the travel bracket and in a quad with Wheaton and Grove City, while giving NCC the "easier road', but again with the way R5 had them placed behind Wartburg, I didn't give NCC the benefit of the doubt.


USee

#50
The only thing I'll add Mike is that the National Committee has repeatedly said (including this year) that position in the regional rankings is not necessarily equivalent to seeding position. The final criteria "previous year results" is not considered in placing the teams in their region but once all the teams are placed, it becomes a criteria to separate the top teams for seeding. The top teams for seeding seem to be JHU, Wartburg, NCC, Mt Union and Susquehanna. Those are all undefeated teams with at least 2 RRO wins and SOS ranking from .598 to around .500. The question is, does "previous years results" separate NCC and Mt Union from this field, given their SOS's are the two lowest among these teams, as well as Wartburg being the only team among the undefeated's with 3 RRO wins?

Ralph Turner

Just now back on the boards after going to work...
Respectfully Mike, Whitworth beat Chapman early in the season. I noticed that Pat et al caught this.

The projected bracket by Pat et al flies Belhaven to Whitworth and Chapman to UWL.
It looks like at least 2 flights in round 2, HSU/Trinity to JHU/West Conn and then Whitworth/Belhaven to UWL/Chapman

USee

Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.

This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.

Ralph Turner


repete

Quote from: USee on November 12, 2023, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.

This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.

So if SJU 2023 was fool's gold, what non-precious metal is 2023 MUC?

D3fanboy

Quote from: repete on November 27, 2023, 08:41:55 AM
Quote from: USee on November 12, 2023, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.

This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.

So if SJU 2023 was fool's gold, what non-precious metal is 2023 MUC?

under Geoff Dartt, the Raiders have resembled the 2020 precious commodity, Charmin

lmitzel

Quote from: D3fanboy on November 27, 2023, 09:36:09 AM
Quote from: repete on November 27, 2023, 08:41:55 AM
Quote from: USee on November 12, 2023, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.

This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.

So if SJU 2023 was fool's gold, what non-precious metal is 2023 MUC?

under Geoff Dartt, the Raiders have resembled the 2020 precious commodity, Charmin

I can't tell if this is a troll job or just a plain old bad take.

Look, I'm not dancing on Mount Union's grave (...okay, that's not entirely true), but look at the three full years under Geoff Dart. No regular season losses, three conference titles (and thus playoff appearances), two semifinal appearances, and one trip to the Stagg Bowl. If you offered this three season stretch to any of the other 240 D-III teams, you know how many of them would take you up on it? I can probably count on one hand the number of teams that would say no thanks.

Official D-III Championship BeltTM Cartographer
2022 CCIW Football Pick 'Em Co-Champion
#THREEEEEEEEE

Ralph Turner

Quote from: lmitzel on November 27, 2023, 05:35:07 PM
Quote from: D3fanboy on November 27, 2023, 09:36:09 AM
Quote from: repete on November 27, 2023, 08:41:55 AM
Quote from: USee on November 12, 2023, 05:39:19 PM
Quote from: USee on November 11, 2023, 08:00:32 PM
Overall 1 seeds aren't supposed to lose in round 2. Regardless, the point is I am not that confident in ST J getting selected. If the committee goes with win % it could be UWW, Wheaton, and Union, Coe/Muhl as last team in.

This is how it played out which is what I was hearing.

So if SJU 2023 was fool's gold, what non-precious metal is 2023 MUC?

under Geoff Dartt, the Raiders have resembled the 2020 precious commodity, Charmin

I can't tell if this is a troll job or just a plain old bad take.

Look, I'm not dancing on Mount Union's grave (...okay, that's not entirely true), but look at the three full years under Geoff Dart. No regular season losses, three conference titles (and thus playoff appearances), two semifinal appearances, and one trip to the Stagg Bowl. If you offered this three season stretch to any of the other 240 D-III teams, you know how many of them would take you up on it? I can probably count on one hand the number of teams that would say no thanks.
... and they wear purple jerseys. :)

FCGrizzliesGrad

Not only will there be no purple in the Stagg Bowl, but there are no purple teams left in the semifinals... when was the last time that happened?
.

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Ralph Turner

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on December 04, 2023, 12:49:02 AM
Not only will there be no purple in the Stagg Bowl, but there are no purple teams left in the semifinals... when was the last time that happened?
(I thought of that as I was falling asleep. That is a good question for the podcast.)

How about 1991 - Ithaca over Dayton. Susquehanna and SJU were in the Semis.

The Purple are dead. Long live the Purple.