Pool A and Pool C Status

[paclassic89]

Question for all those geeking out this weekend trying to figure out teams' chances who may have thoughts based on based selection experiences...how reliable do you all feel the Massey Ratings are in reflecting both team strength/standing and conference strength/standing as the committee evaluates teams and conferences?

I would avoid using Massey at this point. It's generally pretty good but there are outliers.  An quick example would be Stevens who is ranked 2nd in region IV but Massey has them all the way down at 81.   All the information needed for pool c predictions can be gathered from the recent NCAA data sheets

[paclassic89]

Great work for a "one stop figure out the craziness spreadsheet" for the soccer community.  Thoughts on North Central College making the playoffs?

They'll be one of the first 10 Pool C's

[soccerpapa]

I am hoping they are good to go.....Hope for at least a few more competitive soccer games before he hangs them up as he will not be taking a Covid year

[Hopkins92]

Not that I really look at it much, but CSO's Karma needs to get a major boost for this. Thanks for the effort!

[Soccer BTN]

Appreciate the work!

If anybody wants to track the conference championships: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17-ic3NbeU2Qo8urgoQ_Oh5PXVNixK0vrjlbeza7-YK8/edit?usp=sharing

Due to different time zones and game times changing, there may be a discrepancy between the time listed and actual game time.

Have it restricted at the moment and will do my best to update in the evenings/mornings. If anybody has an interest in assisting, feel free to shoot me a message.

Updated to include Pool C tracker. Stayed away from teams that are on or near the bubble, but looks like there are 14 Pool C bids at play contingent on results this weekend. Feel free to chime in if you have thoughts.

Will clean it up in the evenings/mornings. Excited to watch it all unfold.

[mngopher]

One team I'd keep an eye on is Gustavus in Region 9. They haven't been ranked yet so I know that history says they probably need to get the auto bid. They're in the MIAC title game tomorrow, and I'd wonder about how the committee would look at them with a tie and losing in a shootout so they don't get the auto bid. They'll definitely be in the next regional rankings after picking up two wins this week, one of which is a regionally ranked win on the road over #3 Carleton. Their profile is similar to those of Stevens, Rowan, Bowdoin, Rochester, and many others who are already regionally ranked and will be in the mix for a Pool C. Right now they are 10-3-6 with a RvR of 2-2-3 and SOS of around .610. Not saying they will make it, but I think they've played themselves squarely into the mix.

[Hopkins92]

Hopkins and the Muhles just advanced, which has some wonky implications here.

[Ron Boerger]

Colorado College is out in the SCAC semis but almost assuredly will get a Pool C. 

[stlawus]

Wash College will get an SOS bump even with the loss.  Would assume they're a lock for pool C.

[Hopkins92]

Wash College will get an SOS bump even with the loss.  Would assume they're a lock for pool C.

Oh yeah, agree. Tonight is huge for JHU and Muhles. Going to squeeze some of the other regions on C spots for sure.

[Freddyfud]

Wash College will get an SOS bump even with the loss.  Would assume they're a lock for pool C.

Oh yeah, agree. Tonight is huge for JHU and Muhles. Going to squeeze some of the other regions on C spots for sure.

So does the CC possibly get 4 in?  Especially if the Muhles get the AQ?

[Kuiper]

It feels like there are too many teams that are "for sure Pool C bids" who are losing in their conference tournaments or even before that for all of them to get Pool C bids

[Coach Andrew]

It feels like there are too many teams that are "for sure Pool C bids" who are losing in their conference tournaments or even before that for all of them to get Pool C bids

In past years, the standard for SOS was .555 to even get consideration for pool C bids. Another standard is to be about .500 vs ranked opponents. These are good metrics to use to eliminate possible pool C teams who many think are "locks".

[stlawus]

Wash College is going to have around a .590 SOS, 3-2-1 against RR opponents and a very good win%.  I'm pretty confident that they're in.

[Coach Andrew]

Wash College is going to have around a .590 SOS, 3-2-1 against RR opponents and a very good win%.  I'm pretty confident that they're in.

Agreed!