Pool A and Pool C Status

[Hopkins92]

Wash College will get an SOS bump even with the loss.  Would assume they're a lock for pool C.

Oh yeah, agree. Tonight is huge for JHU and Muhles. Going to squeeze some of the other regions on C spots for sure.

So does the CC possibly get 4 in?  Especially if the Muhles get the AQ?

JHU, Wash and F&M are pretty locked in. I'd think the Muhles need to win tomorrow, though Hop & F&M down the stretch is going to boost their SoS.

[BaboNation]

WPI takes the NEWMAC on PKs (3-2) after a 1-1 draw through 2OTs.

For Babson, 2/5 on PKs, after going 2/5 in the regular season.  It's becoming a tradition of sorts.

[Coach Andrew]

My LOCKs for Pool Cs by region:
Lock = teams from last week's regional rankings which I have no doubts about their resumes.
THIS INCLUDES TEAMS WHO COULD STILL WIN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT


Region 1
Conn College
Middlebury
Amherst
Tufts

Region 2
Babson

Region 3
Cortland St.
Oneonta St.

Region 4
Montclair St.

Region 5
Messiah
F&M
Washington College
Johns Hopkins

Region 6
Mary Washington
Christopher Newport
W&L

Region 7
Kenyon
OWU
ONU

Region 8
Calvin
Chicago

Region 9
UWP

Region 10
Colorado College

BUBBLE TEAMS (No Order)
Bowdoin
Brockport St.
Rochester
Stevens
Muhlenberg
Lynchburg
Case Western
John Carroll
North Central
Carthage
Carleton
Trinity
St. Thomas

22 LOCKS
13 BUBBLE TEAMS

What this tells me:
The bubble teams need a number of the current locks to win their conference tournaments!

[paclassic89]

Cortland, Montclair, Messiah, ONU, Calvin, and Stevens all won.  Carthage up 2-0

[BlueJay95]

Two more also in from Amherst/Tufts and Mary Wash/UWP.

[BlueJay95]

Also think Otterbein perhaps should be included in that bubble list?

[Coach Andrew]

Also think Otterbein perhaps should be included in that bubble list?

The reason I left off Otterbein from the Bubble list is that, although their SOS will get a boost from their last two games, they have a low SOS and are under .500 vs ranked opponents. On top of that, they are DEEP in their regional rankings. Despite a win in PKs vs John Carroll, I don't think it's enough to put them above John Carroll and I do not see a scenario where both John Carroll and Otterbein get in. That was at least my thinking! I agree that they could very well be in that bubble conversation but it would be at the bottom of the bubble list for sure.

[D-Three Fan]

it is just my opinion, but I believe Otterbein has a good chance of jumping ahead of John Carroll in the final regional rankings. In the latest regional rankings Otterbein was just one place below John Carroll. Otterbein should get a bump in the SOS. Lastly, I think it would be difficult to put JC in front of Otterbein. Otterbein finished first in the conference-JC fourth. Otterbein also beat JC in both the regular season and in the conference tournament. JC's win over OWU will not mean as much in the final ranking. JC's loss and Otterbein's win over Denison will also be important.

[BlueJay95]

Illinois Wesleyan takes away an at-large bid tonight. Quite a comeback and quote a tourney run.

[regionxfan17]

With the demise of d3soccer.com, I miss the extensive work that Cristan did prior to the tournaments.  Here is my effort at showing who has captured Pool A slots, who has been knocked out of conference tournaments, and who is still playing.

Records are current as of last night, as are the R v R numbers.  I did not update the SOS numbers, so I used the ones from the last regional rankings.

Teams highlighted in red have clinched a Pool A.  Basically, among ranked teams currently this only applies to Emory.  Teams in yellow have been eliminated from Pool A consideration and will need Pool C.  Teams not highlighted are still alive in their conference tournaments and some of them will wind up earning Pool A bids.  Remaining games for each of the non-highlighted teams are included.  I will update at the conclusion of each day, wrapping it all up on Sunday night.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e8PonooxY65NqKqnOoR4CBGGXoAYFYv7Tb88ZXrLf-k/edit?usp=sharing

This document is a sanity-helper, College Soccer Observer!! 

Quick question: for the updated RvRs, did you also factor in changes in ranked teams for the current week?  So, for example, if a team had a win (loss) against a team that was newly ranked this week, did you add that win (loss)?  (And conversely, if it had a win (loss) against a team no longer ranked, does it get that win (loss) removed?)

Case in point:  Region X - with Southwestern entering the rankings and MHB/Pac Lutheran leaving, I think some of the RvRs would need to account not only for their conference playoff results but also the changes in their prior results?

That's a lot of work obviously, so if not no worries, but it would be good to know in order to mentally note these changes in RvR.

[College Soccer Observer]

With the demise of d3soccer.com, I miss the extensive work that Cristan did prior to the tournaments.  Here is my effort at showing who has captured Pool A slots, who has been knocked out of conference tournaments, and who is still playing.

Records are current as of last night, as are the R v R numbers.  I did not update the SOS numbers, so I used the ones from the last regional rankings.

Teams highlighted in red have clinched a Pool A.  Basically, among ranked teams currently this only applies to Emory.  Teams in yellow have been eliminated from Pool A consideration and will need Pool C.  Teams not highlighted are still alive in their conference tournaments and some of them will wind up earning Pool A bids.  Remaining games for each of the non-highlighted teams are included.  I will update at the conclusion of each day, wrapping it all up on Sunday night.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e8PonooxY65NqKqnOoR4CBGGXoAYFYv7Tb88ZXrLf-k/edit?usp=sharing

This document is a sanity-helper, College Soccer Observer!! 

Quick question: for the updated RvRs, did you also factor in changes in ranked teams for the current week?  So, for example, if a team had a win (loss) against a team that was newly ranked this week, did you add that win (loss)?  (And conversely, if it had a win (loss) against a team no longer ranked, does it get that win (loss) removed?)

Case in point:  Region X - with Southwestern entering the rankings and MHB/Pac Lutheran leaving, I think some of the RvRs would need to account not only for their conference playoff results but also the changes in their prior results?

That's a lot of work obviously, so if not no worries, but it would be good to know in order to mentally note these changes in RvR.

I took last weeks r v r and added in the results this week against teams who were currently ranking.  Nothing is included involving teams who were ranked in week 3 but dropped out.  For Redlands, they had no r v r listed, but given that they have played and lost to Occidental 3 times, I put them down for 0-3-0.

[Coach Andrew]

With the demise of d3soccer.com, I miss the extensive work that Cristan did prior to the tournaments.  Here is my effort at showing who has captured Pool A slots, who has been knocked out of conference tournaments, and who is still playing.

Records are current as of last night, as are the R v R numbers.  I did not update the SOS numbers, so I used the ones from the last regional rankings.

Teams highlighted in red have clinched a Pool A.  Basically, among ranked teams currently this only applies to Emory.  Teams in yellow have been eliminated from Pool A consideration and will need Pool C.  Teams not highlighted are still alive in their conference tournaments and some of them will wind up earning Pool A bids.  Remaining games for each of the non-highlighted teams are included.  I will update at the conclusion of each day, wrapping it all up on Sunday night.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e8PonooxY65NqKqnOoR4CBGGXoAYFYv7Tb88ZXrLf-k/edit?usp=sharing

This document is a sanity-helper, College Soccer Observer!! 

Quick question: for the updated RvRs, did you also factor in changes in ranked teams for the current week?  So, for example, if a team had a win (loss) against a team that was newly ranked this week, did you add that win (loss)?  (And conversely, if it had a win (loss) against a team no longer ranked, does it get that win (loss) removed?)

Case in point:  Region X - with Southwestern entering the rankings and MHB/Pac Lutheran leaving, I think some of the RvRs would need to account not only for their conference playoff results but also the changes in their prior results?

That's a lot of work obviously, so if not no worries, but it would be good to know in order to mentally note these changes in RvR.

I think this might help clear some things up as well. The only rankings that matter for RvR are weeks 3 and 4 (Week 4 comes out after the selection show). A big reason why the week 4 rankings are so important is because an unranked team jumping in could provide a team with another RvR result, that could hurt or help them. This 4th week of rankings is also what the national committee will go off of for the selection of at-large bids. For example, if a team like Carthage who lost in their conference final jumps North Central who they beat in the tournament, it could make it extremely difficult for North Central to get off the board because Carthage would have to first.

[Ron Boerger]

While I'm sure one of our regulars will post the information shortly after tomorrow's announcement, according to the NCAA the selection show will stream "live" on NCAA.com tomorrow at 2pm EST, one half hour after the women's show at 1:30 EST. 

[stlawus]

Rochester probably secures a pool C with a huge win against Emory.  Will vault them over Brockport in the regional rankings.

[Coach Andrew]

UW-Platteville is down 3-1 late vs Mary Washington, another Pool C is likely off the board.