2023 NCAA Tournament

[EnmoreCat]

So @PaulNewman and I got together to run through the brackets... and give shout outs to some folks on the boards...

The New Show - The Frigid Bracketology Episode

Hope you enjoy.  All meant in fun.

SC.

Enjoyed the show gentlemen and in terms of my preparation for game 1,  it was merely to check some background on the Wildcats.  Not sure I have the  patience for compiling thirty five bullet points, let alone expect Coach Serpone to use any of them.

[PaulNewman]

Bids by conference...

NESCAC = 4

UAA = 4

Centennial = 3

OAC = 3

NCAC = 3

MIAC = 3

C2C = 3

SCAC = 3

ODAC = 2

SUNYAC = 2

NJAC = 1 (biggest surprise?)

[SKUD]

NEWMAC 2

[PaulNewman]

NEWMAC 2

Thanks, good catch.

[soccerpapa]

CCIW 2

[PaulNewman]

CCIW 2

I had to think for a minute to remember the second one.

Illinois Wesleyan had one of the most unlikely runs to win an AQ.

Finished the regular season losing to North Central 5-1 and having a record of 5-6-3.

CCIW quarterfinal draw with North Park (couple weeks after beating the Vikings despite being down 2-0) and advance on PKs 7-6.

CCIW semis draw with Wheaton and again take PKs 7-6.

In CCIW final Illinois Wesleyan spots Carthage a 2-0 lead to the 71st minute when the Spartans (it's the Spartans, rite?) earn a PK and go one to score two more in regulation to win the CCIW tournament 3-2.


Titans!

[coach analytics]

Simple Coach and PN - excellent job on the video.

Being a NESCAC fan, i am intrigued by how they match up with other conferences.  Amherst's win over Montclair St is certainly impressive as is Wesleyans win over NYU.  Babson provided some sobriety with their 1-1-1 record against 3 top teams.  Also Middlebury could not get a big non conf win at Vassar but got a draw on the road.

I still think the NESCAC squads all have potential for a very deep run.  Middlebury is the enigma.  In my opinion they have the most well rounded team, including a little depth, and a top GK; they are skilled and physical. For the first time in many years they have the top conference set piece player in Madden....but, they have failed to impress on the road over the last two seasons and I wonder if they can reach their potential. My guess is the senior heavy team knows its their year. Will that bring confidence or pressure?  They looked a bit nervous in the NESCAC semis.

They will be a near impossible out at home with strong support although Babson and probably Hopkins are certainly capable.But my guess is that they may need to go to Cortland in the sweet 16 and win a big one on the road.

Amherst will do what Amherst does.  I would hate to have to go to Hitchcock field and knock them off, especially with Ada and Nadu playing so well, although Mary Washington did it last year (and topped it off with knocking out Bowdoin)

Tufts is looking real good after a successful weekend and they have a handful of players with deep NCAA experience. They can score in a variety of ways. Like Conn they have a very skilled front 4 who are maturing nicely.  A dynasty match up in Mechanicsburg would be great for D3 soccer.

Conn will also do what Conn does.  They got the toughest draw, having to go to F&M on a night time schedule but they are also battle tested with a handful of guys with deep NCAA experience. Scaffone and Creus  are proven snipers in big contests.  However, getting through my number 1 Mary Washington (best overall resume) will be a tall task.

I do not see a lot of D3 soccer outside the Northeast so will be intrigued if another Chicago emerges as the clear cut best and most deserving team like last year. MW and Messiah clearly have that potential.

Also, I am not sure I agree with you about the TX teams getting screwed in playing each other.  None of the region X teams have the RPI strength and RvR strength to warrant leadership in a bracket, which is why they are put together.

[PaulNewman]

Coach, thanks for watching.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the Texas/West Coast teams.  I hear you that you don't watch much outside the Northeast/New England, but there are threads here where even in the last couple of days long-time observers of Region X have underscored a consistent pattern over at least two decades.  And after making them play each other, whoever gets to the 2nd weekend likely will be sent somewhere that doesn't make a ton of sense.  Trinity got sent to Amherst one or two years and to Tufts another one.  Many observers have noted that the NCAA is keenly aware of geography and expenses.

I think Midd has the toughest draw among the NESCACs with Conn very, very close behind.  I'm hoping Midd would host the second weekend but I fear it will be Amherst.  Cortland might be a nice compromise but my guess is Amherst.

I'm gonna guess that Middlebury is ready to go and is up to the pressure.  I suspect Tufts was their "nerves" game and I hope they will play up to potential and let the chips fall where they may.  I will say I was thoroughly impressed with how Grady handled his error.  He immediately took ownership, stayed calm, and I think kept his team calm.  That was as impressive to me or more than some of his great saves.  As for Madden....all he has to do is channel his inner Nick Boardman and the Panthers should be good to go.

Agree that any and all of the four NESCACs can make a deep run. 

The question of how other teams would fare in the NESCAC (which isn't exactly what you posed but close) is interesting to me.  Would St Thomas finish in 9th or 10th place or in the 4-6 range?  Can ask that same question of some of the presumed top teams in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic as well.  I am very curious to watch the Denison vs Conn game.  My gut tells me Conn will handle Denison fairly easily, but maybe that is not the case.  We'll see.  Also interesting to think about whether 5th place Bowdoin would win the OAC, or NCAC, or MIAC, etc.  Certainly possible that they would.

And I would love to see a Messiah vs Tufts rematch!

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's NCAA Tournament Trivia Corner

Has there ever been another NCAA Champion besides Conn College to win the title after going to PKs in a 1st round match?  Salem State was the opponent.

Bonus question... Has there been another team to advance on PKs in the 1st round and then win the title via PKs in the national final?

Conn got to the Final Four in 2021 by beating Tufts at Tufts in a wildly entertaining Elite 8 game 5-4.  And speaking of West Coast and travel, Conn got to the Elite 8 by besting Redlands 1-0 in the Sweet 16....in Medford, MA.

Addendum related to the Region X issue...Redlands got to the Sweet 16 out of a pod played at Pacific Lutheran.  In the first round Pacific Lutheran advanced in PKs over Trinity while Redlands ousted Concordia (TX) 2-0.  Redlands then disposed of Pac Lutheran 4-1 in 2nd round.

[coach analytics]

Paul Newman's NCAA Tournament Trivia Corner

Has there ever been another NCAA Champion besides Conn College to win the title after going to PKs in a 1st round match?  Salem State was the opponent.

Bonus question... Has there been another team to advance on PKs in the 1st round and then win the title via PKs in the national final?

Conn got to the Final Four in 2021 by beating Tufts at Tufts in a wildly entertaining Elite 8 game 5-4.  And speaking of West Coast and travel, Conn got to the Elite 8 by besting Redlands 1-0 in the Sweet 16....in Medford, MA.

I was there in person for that Redlands Conn game and if I remember it was a goal off a corner kick in the last 5 minutes or so... details may be fuzzy..

[PaulNewman]

Conn 1 Redlands 0....Horvath scored off Jaran assist (corner?) at 88:56.  Heartbreaking for Redlands.

[Flying Weasel]

Paul Newman's NCAA Tournament Trivia Corner

Has there ever been another NCAA Champion besides Conn College to win the title after going to PKs in a 1st round match?  Salem State was the opponent.

Bonus question... Has there been another team to advance on PKs in the 1st round and then win the title via PKs in the national final?

I knew that was never the case for Messiah in their 11 titles, although they did need OT in their tournament opener (2nd Round) in 2005 against Wesleyan (CT) before making a dominate run to the final where they claimed their fourth title over Gustavus Adolphus 1-0. 

The two possibilities that came to mind were Middlebury in 2007 (who I thought might be the answer to the bonus question) and Bethany (WV) in the mid-90's.  So I had to look it up.  Alas, Middlebury did score goals in the early rounds (had a 1st Round bye) that year before their scoreless Final Four triumph via PKs. 

But Bethany did not let me down.  They opened with a PK advancement over Greensboro after a 1-1 tie and proceeded to claim the championship by the narrowest of margins in the history of the D-III men's soccer tournament: 1-0 in 2OT in the Sweet 16, 2-2 (4OT)(PK adv) in the Elite 8, 0-0 (2OT)(PK adv) in the semifinal, and then a 1-0 2OT win in the Final over Hopkins.  The whole tournament that year was marked by 1-goal margins, overtimes, PKs.  In the Elite 8, three games went to OT, two to PKs, and the one non-OT game was a 1-0 victory.  Only one of the semifinalists had won a game by more than a single goal in regulation.  Bethany might be the most improbable champion of all-time.  They entered the tournament at 13-5-1 and came into the Final Four with more losses than the other three teams combined: UW-Oshkosh (R.I.P.) was undefeated, host Trenton State (now TCNJ) had a single loss, and Hopkins had a pair of losses.  They played a man down in the 2nd Half and OT of the opening round game.  In the Elite 8 they got paired with the defending champion and powerhouse UC-San Diego (3 titles in previous 6 years) who looked on pace for back-to-back titles with two tournament shutouts bringing their win total to 21.  Here's a documentary about their championship with some footage of their tournament games: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L302vvY7_RM

I then had to see if another team pulled off the feat and found 1984 Wheaton (Ill.) who needed PK's to get past Rockford in the opening round en route to their first national championship.  (Historic Factoid: prior to 1991, teams were awarded a win or loss instead of ties in games decided by PKs, with the victor having a goal added to their final score.)  Wheaton were almost the answer to your bonus question as the Thunder needed three overtimes periods to defeat Brandeis in the final, 2-1.  I don't think there's any other case of a national champion starting and finishing their title run with PK victories besides Conn Col. in 2021.  If I'm not mistaken, only four finals have been decided on PK's.

[Ron Boerger]

Also, I am not sure I agree with you about the TX teams getting screwed in playing each other.  None of the region X teams have the RPI strength and RvR strength to warrant leadership in a bracket, which is why they are put together.

Try putting together a schedule to build "RPI strength and RvR strength" when you have less than ten non-conference teams you can play without getting on a plane and half of those suck.

[PaulNewman]

FW, well played. You almost never disappoint.

[flyingdutchman]

Exciting day tomorrow. Some games that I'm looking forward to if they were to happen. Babson vs Middlebury. Messiah vs Tufts. Mary Washington vs Conn College. Cortland vs Midd.  Calvin vs UChicago. Amherst vs any of the Texas teams, it's time to see how dominant the NESCAC actually is. My prediction is that we see 2-3 NESCACS in the Final 4. An upset I like in the first round is West Conn over Washington and Lee.