2023 NCAA Tournament

[SierraFD3soccer]

Exciting day tomorrow. Some games that I'm looking forward to if they were to happen. Babson vs Middlebury. Messiah vs Tufts. Mary Washington vs Conn College. Cortland vs Midd.  Calvin vs UChicago. Amherst vs any of the Texas teams, it's time to see how dominant the NESCAC actually is. My prediction is that we see 2-3 NESCACS in the Final 4. An upset I like in the first round is West Conn over Washington and Lee.

Several good games today!  Conn College v Dennison. Gust Adolphus v. Wartburg as well. Just a taste!!

[Freddyfud]

Was curious about team performance heading into the championship, so I downloaded team stats from NCAA.org and summarized on the Team Summary tab here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NWpmK_bCKUs-pK77HMmYuwTUQ3cpF38kkzOjpCW4y9A/edit?usp=sharing

Data was games thru 11/8, so post conference championships.  I added filters for the NCAA field including Pool A vs B/C.  Understand there are many variables but my hunch was SoS might be a good predictor for a winner as the last 3 years the champion had a regionally ranked SoS of .6 or greater.  (Note the OWS on here is not the same as the regionally ranked ones as explained by Christian S--it does not include OOWS.) I'm not so sure about my hunch as some teams like Univ of Chicago seem to have consistently high SoS every year.

Anyhow if you are into this sort of thing there are all kinds of team stats from records to offensive and defense plays and even attendance.  You can sort or pivot on teams or conferences.

[PaulNewman]

For those making picks for your office pools, keep in mind that there are a couple of head-fakes in terms of hosting.

Wartburg is hosting so they get GAC at home, and presumably the winner will play the top seed, Calvin, at Wartburg.

Same deal with Lynchburg hosting where Messiah very obviously is the top seed (not just in the pod but the whole tourney).  Probably won't matter much to Messiah but definitely an advantage for Lynchburg versus ONU.

[Kuiper]

Was curious about team performance heading into the championship, so I downloaded team stats from NCAA.org and summarized on the Team Summary tab here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NWpmK_bCKUs-pK77HMmYuwTUQ3cpF38kkzOjpCW4y9A/edit?usp=sharing

Data was games thru 11/8, so post conference championships.  I added filters for the NCAA field including Pool A vs B/C.  Understand there are many variables but my hunch was SoS might be a good predictor for a winner as the last 3 years the champion had a regionally ranked SoS of .6 or greater.  (Note the OWS on here is not the same as the regionally ranked ones as explained by Christian S--it does not include OOWS.) I'm not so sure about my hunch as some teams like Univ of Chicago seem to have consistently high SoS every year.

Anyhow if you are into this sort of thing there are all kinds of team stats from records to offensive and defense plays and even attendance.  You can sort or pivot on teams or conferences.

Nice!  It was interesting to see attendance.  The accumulated attendance numbers for Occidental (10,322) and Messiah (8,824) so far outpace every other school that it's really impressive.  And Oxy does it without the years of success that Messiah has had to build up that fan base.  If they can find a way to be a regular qualifier and get another SCIAC team there with them, Oxy really has to host an NCAA tournament pod.  I expect they would get close to filling their 4,000 seat capacity (and Jack Kemp would be rolling in his grave). 

[Gray Fox]

Was curious about team performance heading into the championship, so I downloaded team stats from NCAA.org and summarized on the Team Summary tab here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NWpmK_bCKUs-pK77HMmYuwTUQ3cpF38kkzOjpCW4y9A/edit?usp=sharing

Data was games thru 11/8, so post conference championships.  I added filters for the NCAA field including Pool A vs B/C.  Understand there are many variables but my hunch was SoS might be a good predictor for a winner as the last 3 years the champion had a regionally ranked SoS of .6 or greater.  (Note the OWS on here is not the same as the regionally ranked ones as explained by Christian S--it does not include OOWS.) I'm not so sure about my hunch as some teams like Univ of Chicago seem to have consistently high SoS every year.

Anyhow if you are into this sort of thing there are all kinds of team stats from records to offensive and defense plays and even attendance.  You can sort or pivot on teams or conferences.

Nice!  It was interesting to see attendance.  The accumulated attendance numbers for Occidental (10,322) and Messiah (8,824) so far outpace every other school that it's really impressive.  And Oxy does it without the years of success that Messiah has had to build up that fan base.  If they can find a way to be a regular qualifier and get another SCIAC team there with them, Oxy really has to host an NCAA tournament pod.  I expect they would get close to filling their 4,000 seat capacity (and Jack Kemp would be rolling in his grave).

But Oxy gave up football, so there is not much competition for attendance.

[Kuiper]

Was curious about team performance heading into the championship, so I downloaded team stats from NCAA.org and summarized on the Team Summary tab here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NWpmK_bCKUs-pK77HMmYuwTUQ3cpF38kkzOjpCW4y9A/edit?usp=sharing

Data was games thru 11/8, so post conference championships.  I added filters for the NCAA field including Pool A vs B/C.  Understand there are many variables but my hunch was SoS might be a good predictor for a winner as the last 3 years the champion had a regionally ranked SoS of .6 or greater.  (Note the OWS on here is not the same as the regionally ranked ones as explained by Christian S--it does not include OOWS.) I'm not so sure about my hunch as some teams like Univ of Chicago seem to have consistently high SoS every year.

Anyhow if you are into this sort of thing there are all kinds of team stats from records to offensive and defense plays and even attendance.  You can sort or pivot on teams or conferences.

Nice!  It was interesting to see attendance.  The accumulated attendance numbers for Occidental (10,322) and Messiah (8,824) so far outpace every other school that it's really impressive.  And Oxy does it without the years of success that Messiah has had to build up that fan base.  If they can find a way to be a regular qualifier and get another SCIAC team there with them, Oxy really has to host an NCAA tournament pod.  I expect they would get close to filling their 4,000 seat capacity (and Jack Kemp would be rolling in his grave).

But Oxy gave up football, so there is not much competition for attendance.

True.  There's no question that fans, including most importantly students, have turned to soccer since football was dropped (although Oxy's improvement in soccer coincided with dropping football, so some of it may have happened anyway).  Nevertheless, there are other schools across the country that either never had football or don't have it anymore and don't have attendance numbers anywhere close to Occidental.

[Freddyfud]

I think the stadium capacities could be misleading.  For example William Peace is listed at 10K and plays at Wake Med Soccer Park in Cary, NC.  But they play on one of the side fields not in Sahlen's Stadium which seats 10K (site for the NWSL Courage, TST this summer and the D1 soccer finals the past few years.)

[Kuiper]

I think the stadium capacities could be misleading.  For example William Peace is listed at 10K and plays at Wake Med Soccer Park in Cary, NC.  But they play on one of the side fields not in Sahlen's Stadium which seats 10K (site for the NWSL Courage, TST this summer and the D1 soccer finals the past few years.)

I saw that too and thought many of the capacities are off.  St. Thomas (TX) lists 500, but that must be old because they've been playing their home games at SaberCat Stadium, the home of the Major League Rugby team, which has a capacity of between 3K and 4K depending upon whether you count standing room only.  As a practical matter, there are very few D3 soccer teams where percentage of seating capacity means anything.

[Kuiper]

Was curious about team performance heading into the championship, so I downloaded team stats from NCAA.org and summarized on the Team Summary tab here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NWpmK_bCKUs-pK77HMmYuwTUQ3cpF38kkzOjpCW4y9A/edit?usp=sharing

Data was games thru 11/8, so post conference championships.  I added filters for the NCAA field including Pool A vs B/C.  Understand there are many variables but my hunch was SoS might be a good predictor for a winner as the last 3 years the champion had a regionally ranked SoS of .6 or greater.  (Note the OWS on here is not the same as the regionally ranked ones as explained by Christian S--it does not include OOWS.) I'm not so sure about my hunch as some teams like Univ of Chicago seem to have consistently high SoS every year.

Anyhow if you are into this sort of thing there are all kinds of team stats from records to offensive and defense plays and even attendance.  You can sort or pivot on teams or conferences.

In other bits of information from this spreadsheet that may be of interest only to me, it's no surprise that St. Thomas leads the field in red cards with 7 considering all of the bad press they have received, but it's more interesting that there are a bunch of schools close behind them in total red cards.  Elmira and Manhattanville, for instance, each have 6, while Babson and Brevard each have 5.  What's the story with these schools?  St. Thomas at least picked up a bunch of its red cards in one debacle of a game.  Were these other schools involved in a brawl that flew under the radar?  It can't be just one hot-headed player because eventually sitting out all of those games would have slowed him down.

St. Thomas also doesn't come close to leading in yellow cards.  It only has 40.  Amherst is the leader with 48, Brevard has 44, and North Central (IL) and Lake Forest have 43 each.  In fact, Brevard's 5 reds and 44 yellows rivals St. Thomas' 7 reds and 40 yellows.

Also, a hat tip to Messiah with only 8 yellow cards all season.  Even for a team that plays possession-based soccer and doesn't necessarily need to press the heck out of its opponents or dive in on desperation tackles, it's hard to have single digit yellow cards.  While it's probably at least in part attributable to being (far) ahead in many of its matches, I wonder if there is a "halo effect" at work here.  After all, if the fine gents at Amherst can get some yellows on bad reputation alone (as has been suggested), couldn't Messiah be avoiding a few based on good reputation?

[Freddyfud]

Not sure the reasons why for the other teams but I added some per game columns to normalize.  St Thomas only played 17 games vs the others at 18.  When I do that curiously Ill Wesleyan is actually ahead of St Thomas in yellow cards per game since they only played 16 games.

Some of the other per game categories are interesting at least to perhaps explain how some of the teams qualified.  In the field of 64, the best goals/game is Alfred St., shots on goal/game is Wis-Superior, saves/game is Bridgewater St. and shut outs/game is Wartburg.  Maybe these are some clues to watch as the tournament progresses. For example if Wartburg can hold their game scoreless, do they have an edge?

[Kuiper]

F&M finally breaks through with a goal in the 71st minute to take a 1-0 lead at home v. Geneva.  F&M's press helped with the goal, but it was a classic defender mistake where he tried to head it back to his keeper, but didn't have enough power and left it short.  Maybe the GK could have been farther off his line, but the ball got into the spot from a towering F&M header that caught everyone a little flat on defense.  In those situations, I would rather the defender head it down and to the side or even stop and shield so the forward has to run through his back and foul him rather than try to head it with that much pressure on him.

Presumably, this will open up the game a bit and F&M will get a bit more space to operate.

UPDATE: 

FINAL:  F&M 1 - Geneva 0

The first goal did give F&M more room to operate, but they weren't able to do anything with it.  I was kind of shocked how much room they gave that Geneva player to take the shot at the top of the box for the final action of the game, but when I saw how bad it was, I guess they had very good scouting!  In any event, win and advance regardless of whether it is pretty or not.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Done. 1-0. Not F&Ms best. Geneva keeper was pretty passive the whole game. Obviously could have more. Will definitely have to play way way better tomorrow against Conn or Denison.  Total revert to how they played the last two years as opposed to about 4 games ago. Great till last 1/4 of the field.

[Kuiper]

Conn College scores a very early (3rd minute) goal and is up 1-0 on Denison.

I don't know if the actual goal was a GK error (it was a well-placed corner in traffic), but I'm sure the Denison keeper should not have gone after the original shot.  His touch of the ball before he realized it was well wide resulted in the corner.  Probably first few minute of first round jitters, but that's often the difference in these tight margin games.

UPDATE:  Conn 1 - Denison 1

Denison saves their GK with a corner kick goal of their own in the 13th minute.  Silvester seemed to be set too high and thought he could get a corner that went over his outstretched hands in what was almost an olimpico delivery.  Somehow, a Denison player was free on the back post and hammered it home.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Not the same but similar to Middlebury s flub in the early min of NESCAC semis.

[camosfan]

scores equal!