2023 NCAA Tournament

[calvin_grad]

Is Calvin not hosting because of travel rules?  Weren't they the #1 team in the region?

[PaulNewman]

Is Calvin not hosting because of travel rules?  Weren't they the #1 team in the region?

Imo either Calvin or St Olaf should be hosting.

If ONU website is correct looks like ONU and Colorado Coll are playing the early game at Tufts, which suggests that CC or ONU is the top remaining seed there.

[Dark Knight]

Is Calvin not hosting because of travel rules?  Weren't they the #1 team in the region?

My guess would be travel rules—having Chicago host probably saves flying a team to Grand Rapids.

[PaulNewman]

Despite Messiah being Messiah and also #1 for the entire season the Falcons weren't talked about a lot on the site.  And now they've failed to make the second weekend for the second year in a row despite only having one loss in two full seasons. 

Can anyone provide more color on exactly how Ohio Northern pulled off the upset?  Massive, massive win for the ONU program and the Polar Bears are riding some momentum winning the OAC tourney and still being alive after facing host Lynchburg and then knocking off the gold standard.  Of course Colorado Coll is riding some major momentum of their own.

[SimpleCoach]

All -

So this is premature, and a work in progress... so be gentle.  I've added all the games for the upcoming weekend, both men's and women's, and most, although not all, have the appropriate links to watch or track stats... if available.  Tired of hunting for times and links, etc..

Next year, my goal is to have this automated, but right now, it's all manual. 

Go here if you want to view the games - https://d3soccer.fans/home/game-calendar/

SC.

[camosfan]

Nice idea!

[camosfan]

Is Calvin not hosting because of travel rules?  Weren't they the #1 team in the region?

Imo either Calvin or St Olaf should be hosting.

If ONU website is correct looks like ONU and Colorado Coll are playing the early game at Tufts, which suggests that CC or ONU is the top remaining seed there.

Tufts v WL is the early game 11 am.

[Dark Knight]

Is Calvin not hosting because of travel rules?  Weren't they the #1 team in the region?

My guess would be travel rules—having Chicago host probably saves flying a team to Grand Rapids.

Yep...St Olaf is 585 miles from Calvin, so if either one hosts, one team has to fly. Chicago is between them.

[d4_Pace]

Is Calvin not hosting because of travel rules?  Weren't they the #1 team in the region?

Imo either Calvin or St Olaf should be hosting.

If ONU website is correct looks like ONU and Colorado Coll are playing the early game at Tufts, which suggests that CC or ONU is the top remaining seed there.

The order of the games is actually picked by the host team. I remember when we first got to host coach Shapiro going back and forth on whether the extra two hours of rest was worth switching up the routine of playing at your normal time. It seems like most programs lean toward taking the rest.

[Dark Knight]

How they did in the tournament first round (or, Who's hot)

One measure of how well teams have played so far in the tournament is how much they won by and how difficult was their competition -- average margin of victory + average strength of schedule.

I computed that for the 16 sweet-sixteen teams, using Massey's estimate of the power for each opponent. Two teams stood out as having a particularly good first round (which isn't that far from saying "scored lots of goals"). And two teams -- not so much.

Here is what I came up with:

	Margin of Victory --	Strength of Schedule --	Power
St Olaf	3.5	1.5	5.0
Calvin	4.0	0.7	4.7
Occidental	2.0	2.0	4.0
Eau Claire	1.5	2.1	3.6
Middlebury	2.0	1.1	3.1
Wash & Lee	1.5	1.5	3.0
Tufts	2.0	0.9	2.9
Washington Col	1.0	1.8	2.8
Ohio Northern	0.5	2.3	2.8
Montclair St	2.0	0.8	2.8
Chicago	1.5	1.2	2.7
Connecticut Col	1.0	1.7	2.7
Mary Washington	1.5	0.9	2.4
Colorado Col	0.5	1.7	2.2
Amherst	1.0	0.4	1.4
Cortland	0.5	0.7	1.2

St Olaf won by an average of 3.5 goals against pretty good competition. Calvin won by an average of 4 goals over weaker competition.

On the other end, Amherst had the very easiest schedule and won by only 1 goal per game. Cortland had slightly more challenging competition but won by only 0.5 goals per game.

Ohio Northern had the toughest schedule (Lynchburg, Messiah).

[College Soccer Observer]

Much delayed recap of Middlebury vs Johns Hopkins.

Middlebury declined to press aggressively, and much of the first part of the game was spent in possession by Hopkins as their backs worked the ball back and forth in their own half.  A few decent chances each way.  Things started to heat up in the last 19 minutes.  Sawin for Midd cut left to right across the penalty area and was chopped down by a defender, but there was no call on the play.  Harper Nicholl tracked all the way back into his own penalty area, won the ball, and then carried it to midfield, where he did a give and go with Will Sawin.  Nicholl slotted a pass behind the defender for Saint-Louis, who delivered a pinpoint cross that Tyler Payne ran onto and finished with his first touch.  Midd made it 2-0 four minutes later when Saint-Louis sent an inswinger into the 6 yard box and Kyle Nilsson outjumped everyone and scored on the header. 

In the second half, Hopkins began to show more urgency, and they were active and dangerous throughout the half.  They finally got one on the board after a blocked shot dropped to Griffin Meyer 6 yards out, and he made no mistake with the finish.  Hopkins pressed hard for the equalizer, banging one off the crossbar and forcing Grady into a couple of saves, but they could not find the goal they needed. 

First time seeing Hopkins play in person this weekend, and I admire their commitment to a possession style.  I do think they struggle somewhat against teams with a physical presence (3 of the goals they conceded on the weekend were on headers).  For me, these are two of the better teams in the country, and this should not have been a round of 32 matchup.  The committee did the Blue Jays no favors by giving them Babson and then Midd on the opening weekend.

[Hopkins92]

Nice summary, kind of similar to what I posted on the JHU Alumni page on Facebook. The non-call on the PK was pretty shocking.

Commitment to Possession should be on a plaque in the locker room. What I like about the evolution of this style is that the last 3 years or so, they are much more willing to send in through balls and switch the point of attack. They also are more likely lately to break the opposition press or defensive set-up by coming up the middle.

And, yeah, that was an extremely tough draw. #13 and #3 is quite a gauntlet.

I was really impressed with Midd's composure, athleticism and clinical finishing. Very proud that Hopkins came into the 2nd half having carried most of the possession but found themselves down 2... Great resolve and competitive nature to press the Panthers as hard as they did. Grady made a couple of amazing saves. Hopkins also hit the crossbar twice (and to be fair, Midd banged one off the far post in the 2nd half.)

[flyingdutchman]

All four NESCAC teams are in the Sweet 16—what's new? Bowdoin, as the fifth team from the NESCAC deserving a bid, is probably wishing they were in the tournament. I truly believe they would have been a dangerous team in this bracket. All credit to Messiah and the great unbeaten season they had, but at what point are we going to realize that their SOS has something to do with it? The last three years prove that Messiah is a fluke #1 ranked team in the nation. My final four prediction is Conn College vs. St. Olaf and Amherst vs. Tufts.

[d4_Pace]

^^^ This take is definitely going to get some people going. I think more than anything it shows the fine margins in the tournament. I will say that the game against ONU was the first time I watched Messiah this year and I wasn't particularly impressed. Sure they had more shots and possession, but they really didn't create many clear cut chances the entire second half. That being said, it seems they were missing their best player and struggled to adjust. But it does seems like the program lacks the truly elite players (Robbins, Thompson, Payne, West, and many more) that they have had in the past. I think its definitely fair to say that Messiah is no longer clearly the dominant DIII program that automatically deserves the benefit of the doubt of being the best team in the country despite their schedule. Instead I think they are one of 5 programs that are capable of winning a National Championship any season which is still a very elite group itself.

[d4_Pace]

And since I mentioned it... Those programs for me are Calvin, Chicago, Messiah, Amherst, and I am hoping Tufts can reestablish themselves at that level under Dezotell. The way I think about it is if you offered me those 5 versus the field at the beginning of the year to win it all I think it may be close to 50/50.