2023 NCAA Tournament

[flyingdutchman]

And since I mentioned it... Those programs for me are Calvin, Chicago, Messiah, Amherst, and I am hoping Tufts can reestablish themselves at that level under Dezotell. The way I think about it is if you offered me those 5 versus the field at the beginning of the year to win it all I think it may be close to 50/50.

I agree with both of your points. Messiah is always a favorite when this tournament begins, and arguably had the best player in the country in McDonald (who was injured for the 2nd round game). However, after watching them play, I think there is no gap between them and the top 4 NESCAC teams. In terms of elite programs, I think that the top 5 is spot on.

[SimpleCoach]

^^^ This take is definitely going to get some people going. I think more than anything it shows the fine margins in the tournament. I will say that the game against ONU was the first time I watched Messiah this year and I wasn't particularly impressed. Sure they had more shots and possession, but they really didn't create many clear cut chances the entire second half. That being said, it seems they were missing their best player and struggled to adjust. But it does seems like the program lacks the truly elite players (Robbins, Thompson, Payne, West, and many more) that they have had in the past. I think its definitely fair to say that Messiah is no longer clearly the dominant DIII program that automatically deserves the benefit of the doubt of being the best team in the country despite their schedule. Instead I think they are one of 5 programs that are capable of winning a National Championship any season which is still a very elite group itself.

Matt Mcdonald didn't play.  And it was very clear why he is so important.

SC.

[stlawus]

What team did Bowdoin deserve to get a bid from?   One of the last teams to get an at large was Oneonta, who had a higher win %, more RR wins and higher SOS.

[FanofNescac]

And since I mentioned it... Those programs for me are Calvin, Chicago, Messiah, Amherst, and I am hoping Tufts can reestablish themselves at that level under Dezotell. The way I think about it is if you offered me those 5 versus the field at the beginning of the year to win it all I think it may be close to 50/50.

If Conn College makes it back to the Final 4, I'm adding them to this list. Reuben Burk is establishing himself as one of the best coaches in the country.

It's underrated how much success he has had in 4 seasons. He's now in his third Sweet 16 in 4 years. Has a National Title, Elite 8, and two NESCAC Finals.

[PaulNewman]

Wow...and here we go...

My take...

Both things can be true.  Messiah is still the preeminent program in the country.  They generally play a pretty good schedule, although this year was probably marginally weaker.  They certainly would not go unbeaten in the NESCAC, but by the same token, not a single NESCAC would have gone 42-1-2 or whatever it was the past two years with Messiah's schedule.  That said, on a year to year basis the Falcons aren't singularly special in way that is now qualitatively different than several other teams.  I actually agree with D4's heuristic of a top 5, and imo, his attempt at Tufts humility aside, his picks are right on the money...Messiah, Calvin, Chicago, Amherst, Tufts (and not in any particular order).  Based on the past decade plus, those five deserve to be considered on a tier of their own.  Then there is another elite group of 10-12 schools who for the most part have been very much in the mix over that same time period.

Recency bias is always tricky, but I can't recall a year when the results in rounds 1 and 2 were so tight.  A large number of games going to PKs and very few having a margin of more than one goal.  Overall, it seems that there are a greater number of strong programs and increasingly smaller margins between teams in the top two to three tiers.

Yes, four NESCACs are in the Sweet 16.  You have reason to celebrate, obviously, but none of them beat teams they weren't supposed to beat.  No one said the NESCAC isn't great or hasn't had at least four and sometimes almost five teams in the a legit top 10 all season.  It sometimes feels like grievance is manufactured (as though NESCAC repeatedly is undervalued or disrespected), which then greases the skids for a hearty sense of vindication in reaction to feeling aggrieved.  Was NESCAC undervalued 10-15 years ago?  Maybe.  But not now.  I would challenge anyone to find a post on the boards from this entire season suggesting that NESCAC isn't the top conference with at least a handful of outstanding, Final Four caliber teams.

Btw, the other element missing in the Messiah critiques....maybe Ohio Northern is pretty good (speaking of teams with back to back Sweet 16 appearances).

One of the best things about this past season imo is that -- in addition to another year of sedimenting the greatness of NESCAC -- we've been more exposed than usual to the fact that very good soccer is played across the country....The Texas group, St Olaf, GAC, Carleton, North Central, the OAC group, W&L and Lynchburg, Mary Wash, Oxy, Pac Lu, etc.  It sure helps when someone takes the time to put some sunlight on these other places (and Kuiper and SC in their own ways deserve by miles the most credit).

[D3Parent1]

Hmm. Midd won by 1 over what was probably an emotionally exhausted JHU team.   Conn College tied both their games in regulation and if this was a standard weekend they would have gone home 0-0-2.  F&M controlled more than their fair share of the game but could not convert.  Conn beats F&M on the 7th or 8th round of PK's.   Good soccer by Conn but not dominant.

[Bucket]

Hmm. Midd won by 1 over what was probably an emotionally exhausted JHU team.   Conn College tied both their games in regulation and if this was a standard weekend they would have gone home 0-0-2.  F&M controlled more than their fair share of the game but could not convert.  Conn beats F&M on the 7th or 8th round of PK's.   Good soccer by Conn but not dominant.

A lot of excuses in this post. The teams that won moved on, deservedly so.

[College Soccer Observer]

Hmm. Midd won by 1 over what was probably an emotionally exhausted JHU team.   Conn College tied both their games in regulation and if this was a standard weekend they would have gone home 0-0-2.  F&M controlled more than their fair share of the game but could not convert.  Conn beats F&M on the 7th or 8th round of PK's.   Good soccer by Conn but not dominant.

And Hopkins could have been out in the first round if Babson could hold a lead.  We can do what ifs all day long.  I don't think anyone made the argument that Conn was dominant this weekend.  As Paul Newman noted, there were a lot of close games.  Conn won in OT and advanced on PKs.  Tufts and Midd each had 3-0 wins the first day followed by 2-1 the second.  Amherst had two one goal wins, one in OT.  No one is claiming that the NESCAC teams are dominating every game.  But 4 out of 4 in the final 16 this year, 3 out of 4 last year, 4 out of four in 2021, and 3 out of four in 2019 means that they are doing something right.

[camosfan]

There is no substitute for preparation and the rigor of NESCAC schedule prepares teams well for this knock out phase of the season.

[EnmoreCat]

NESCACs are no good, now someone has said it 

[paclassic89]

Do we have to wait for D4_pace and Northman to chime in or are we good to move on from the NESCAC fluffing?

[D3Parent1]

4 sensitive NESCAC replies to my post...I don't post often so I don't know if that means it is a good post that touched a nerve or an ignorant one?   I did not mean to put down any team or program.  Everyone that is moving on deserved it and I wish them all well.  No exceptions.  I want no ones season to end.  I think the last game of your last year of college is possibly the saddest moment in most athletes lives.   

As I said in my post Conn played good soccer, not dominant.  They won. They move on.   I am a NESCAC grad and I had kids that played in both the NESCAC and the CC with some success so I don't think I am biased.  Clearly the NESCAC is the strongest soccer in the country the past 10 years...as to why I think that is.....I leave for other smarter folks to figure out...

[Freddyfud]

Came here to check on thoughts for the eventual winner of this thing.  Think I'll just stick to my instincts based on my limited time here: Nobody Ever Should Challenge Aforementioned Conference.

I haven't watched much of the bottom bracket, but I like Mary Washington and Middlebury up top to make the final 4.  For rounding sake I'll take ONU and Calvin?  And Mary Washington as the 2023 champion.

First and second rounds were very entertaining and saw some great individual and team performances.  Wish I had a couple more monitors (maybe next year.)

[stlawus]

The NESCAC should be a top 2 league in division III.  I don't find it particularly noteworthy that it is.  They have inherent recruiting advantages over most of division III.  You still have to win the games, but the ceiling is always going to be higher than 95% of division III.  Same applies to the UAA.   

[SimpleCoach]

NESCACs are no good, now someone has said it 

NESCRAP?

SC.