2023 NCAA Tournament

[northman]

Do we have to wait for D4_pace and Northman to chime in or are we good to move on from the NESCAC fluffing?

I see that my name has been invoked.  I was traveling all day yesterday, so I'm late to the party and my post will be out of sequence.

I agree with the comments that the inherent NESCAC recruiting "advantages" are actually a mixed blessing.  From an academic standpoint, the NESCACs (and the UAA schools, Claremont colleges, Kenyon, Carleton, W&L, etc.) are desirable targets for high school student athletes with academic aspirations.  But they ain't easy to get into. 

As one anecdotal example, my older son...who was a strong student, but not ranked in the top 10 at his high school...was the top recruit at a NESCAC school, but he was considered a C-band recruit and it would have taken a lot of things to go right for him to be admitted.  He ended up being admitted to Brown early decision to play D1 soccer there.

There is a large and growing talent pool of high school soccer players across the country these days...and not all of these good players are going to play D1.  Many of them will happily play D3.  And not all of them are interested in the top academic schools.  I have admittedly not watched many soccer games outside of the NESCAC, but I occasionally will watch some tournament games.  For example, I watched the replay of the wild game between St. Thomas and Texas Lutheran.  In my view, there was a high degree of athleticism and technical skill on the pitch.  Many of those players are Texas locals.

So, I don't buy the notion that the NESCAC schools have a built-in advantage when it comes to recruiting.  I think the NESCAC's biggest advantages are geographical proximity, parity, and a high degree of competitive spirit within a well defined conference.

My two cents...

[PaulNewman]

On another note,  I don't recall anyone mentioning that Midd has on its roster a brother of F&M star Oscar Horwitz.

Also noticed for first time that Midd has 3 assts, including former star from Massachusetts, Greg Conrad....as well as a culture and leadership coach and a yoga/mindfulness coach. And last but maybe not least, a Director of Operations.

[College Soccer Observer]

The three most active coaches on game day are Elias, Emmett, Potter.  Ben Potter has been an awesome addition as an assistnat this year.  He was a captain of the 2019 side who spent some time in the finance world before deciding to coach.  His father is one of the coaches at North Shore Country Day in Illinois, which just won the small school state championship this fall. 

[SierraFD3soccer]

On another note,  I don't recall anyone mentioning that Midd has on its roster a brother of F&M star Oscar Horwitz.

Also noticed for first time that Midd has 3 assts, including former star from Massachusetts, Greg Conrad....as well as a culture and leadership coach and a yoga/mindfulness coach. And last but maybe not least, a Director of Operations.

Yeah, did not mention.  Very nice family. Don't know the younger Horowitz, but briefly met him at games last year.  Oscar is a great guy. Youngest is seeing the field and hopefully even more next year. Said it before, but Oscar came as def. back and had not played striker since he was young according to his father.

Two weekends ago, their parents drove from NY to Lancaster Friday night.  After F&M's loss to Muhlenberg 2-1 in the semis, they then drove (7 hours or so) on Friday night from to Middlebury VT to see their other son's team lose 2-1 in the semis at 11am.  Brutal game(s).  Not sure about last weekend, but guessing the same after F&M's second round PK loss on Saturday night they most likely drove back to VT.  Fortunately, Midds beat JHU.  FYI, Horowitz brothers now have a 4 game win streak against Hop. Three by Oscar (who has scored 5 goals against Hop) and one by the younger.

Both will be back next year. Maybe, like three years ago, F&M can meet Middlebury in the NCAAs. Not quite the Kelce brothers as I don't think either one is dating a famous pop singer or have marched as Mummer on New Years Day.

[TableMax]

The NESCAC clearly the SEC of D3 Soccer..  Over 400  D3 programs yet they get 4 into the final 16.  Would like to see the NCAA spread out the teams and not make the first 2 rounds so local.  The best teams should get to advance regardless of cost.. The games are amazing to watch.  Looking fwd to the weekend..

[coach analytics]

NESCAC Sweet 16 Preview

Amherst - Is anyone surprised that Amherst is sitting in the sweet 16 and hosting at Hitchcock Field?  I am sure the sprinklers are on and the lawn mowers are no where to be found.  They will be a tough out on their home field.  The skill of Ada and Nuhu on the outside is devastating in that they can beat players 1v1 and also create numerous corners, set pieces and long throws.  Stevens, while able to hold on for dear life for 90+ minutes, eventually faltered.  They came into the game expecting a soccer match and learned it would be more a combination of wrestling and volleyball all rolled into one.  Although I have been a constant critic of their style, you have to admire Justin Serpone's tactics in round 1 when he barely used his starters, risking a first round upset, to be able to unleash his top crew for nearly 110 minutes in round 2.

I have not seen Occidental play but I am sure they are well deserving and will put up a fight.  They traveled to Texas and came away with two impressive wins even though one was aided by an early red card on opposing keeper.   At least they are used to getting fouled hard, which will definitely occur on Saturday. They also have another impressive road victory against Redlands. Amherst has been very reliant on the set piece goal as of late except for Nuhu's heroics.  Perhaps this is a function of one of my favorite midfield maestros Cubbedu being out with injury.  The Stevens game proves you can wait a long time for this result which is why I think they are at risk.

No players in the league had more playoff experience than Ada and Cubeddu. Although both hoisted back to back league trophies, you bet they are expecting to hoist the big one.

Middlebury - As I have said in the past, I think they have the best collection of talent across the field in the league and a lot of "senior experience". They are generating a lot of legit scoring chances. Like Tufts, they used a dominant first half performance to knock of the storied Hopkins program and held on in a more competitive second half.  Their big game players, highlight by St Louis, have stepped up recently and their scoring potential is top of the group.

I have not seen Cortland play but they have an impressive resume and SOS.  They were able to advance on PKs against a very good CWRU squad where they used a PK in regulation but were unable to hold on for the win.  One thing that I would point out is that they do not have a signature road win (except possibly Brockport), losing to Rochester and tieing Rowan on the road. While this is a neutral site road and Middlebury has also not put up an impressive road victory, Middlebury is a little more familiar with the peculiarities of Hitchcock Field so will have that as an advantage.

I want to believe that talent will win out and Middlebury will sail to their first final 4 in many many years, I predict it will come down to how the referees handle Amherst style.  If the refs, like in the NESCAC tournament,  allows Amherst to clutch and grab and tactically foul, without setting the tone with yellows, it could be a long day.  Also Amherst brings in considerable more experience and home field which both help even the playing field.  Ada and Cubeddu have played in 20+ playoff (NESCAC and NCAA) games. 

However, Middlebury has the big time keeper and CB Madden has the size and strength to dominate the defensive box.  He will be needed to fight off the 30+ launches in the box that they will generate on the small and slow pitch.  The winner of this potential match up could be hoisting the trophy in VA.

Tufts - no team has come on stronger and been more impressive in the last month than Tufts, their front four have really matured and produced big goals down the stretch.  Also, Bargagna is playing aggressively, getting forward and had 3 assist over the weekend.Like Middlebury, Tufts used a dominant first half performance to beat Rochester and held on at the end when the momentum shifted.  Their GK proved the ability to come up big.  While they are still relatively young with big contributions from juniors and sophomores, they also have tons of playoff experience among their leaders.

Also, lets face it, while every team left is very, very capable, the Messiah loss was a "gift from God" as it allowed Tufts to be the top remaining seed in their group and host another weekend.

W&L is a storied program in D3 and put up impressive results in a very solid region.  They have a big time scorer up front, something not really seen this year in the NESCAC where the scoring has been much more spread out at the top teams.  It will be interesting to see how the Jumbos scheme to neutralize this level of talent. Either Colorado or Ohio Northern will be very strong challenges if Tufts does advance. 

I certainly like Tufts chances to make it to the final four since they are hosting.  Their leaders Traynor, Clivio, Brady, Campbell and Gerkin have a ton of playoff experience and Traynor has a ring and has been part of 20+ playoff games. However, we all remember the classic 2021 elite 8 match up where Conn shrugged off 2 deficits to end the three peat hope of the Jumbos at home in a wild 5-4 road victory for the Camels.

Conn College - They look like the most battle tested so far of the group with an epic OT/PK advancement over host and highly ranked F&M last weekend after needing OT and 2 PKs during OT to take down a scrappy Denison team.  While certainly a very solid if not down right spectacular team all season, Conn seems to be limping a bit right now.  I love their tactics with a high level of possession orientation but their firepower has not been there.  In their four playoff games, they have not produced many goals from the run of play, needing PKs, set pieces, which is really not their strength compared to others, or goalie mistakes (like F&M).  They seem content to play super conservatively. Perhaps the mid season injury to Jauran, one of my (and PN) favorites in one of the reasons for the lack of dangerous play in the final third.

They probably have, on paper, the toughest 3rd round game versus Montclair State who has a big time scorer in their mix and an impressive resume.  MS did lose their one NESCAC match up of the season at home to Amherst in what best can be described as a blood bath.  If Conn can get by MS, then a probable away match up at Mary Washington, last seasons NESCAC slayer, will be a tall order.  In my opinion, MW had the most impressive season of any non-NESCAC with its only loss on the road at Messiah and several other signature wins on the road, neutral and at home.

However don't forget that the core of this team, Creuss, Scaffone, Cervezo, Sylvester, and AHD have a ton of deep playoff experience and a ring to show for it.  That will mean something on the road in a dogfight as they have already proven.

[D-Three Fan]

(Paul Newman quote) "Btw, the other element missing in the Messiah critiques....maybe Ohio Northern is pretty good (speaking of teams with back to back Sweet 16 appearances)."

I was at the game and P.N. is correct in that ONU deserves the credit for this win. For those who are contending that Messiah soccer is not what it once was, they seem to forget that they were unbeaten in over 40 games. If those same individuals would have watched the game against Baruch (I know it was Baruch), they would have said they were spectacular--and they were. I understand that they were missing a key player, but at this point in the season a lot of teams are dealing with injury issues. A couple of ONU starters played limited minutes due to injuries. I think two factors contributed to ONU's win. First, their SOS prepared them for tournament play, and secondly there back five played an excellent game. 

Sorry about the long post, but as noted before ONU deserves credit for the win. Sometimes a team looks bad because the other team made them look that way.

[Another Mom]

Happy to say hello to any other d3 board posters who will be in Boston this weekend!

[camosfan]

What number is your son , if you don't mind?

[Another Mom]

#7

[camosfan]

Thanks , will look out , mine is #4.

[Another Mom]

Thanks , will look out , mine is #4.

I will keep an eye out as well!

[flyingdutchman]

Some Predictions for Sweet 16 games:

Amherst vs Occidental: Amherst 3-0
Middlebury vs Cortland: Middlebury 1-0

Ohio Northern vs Colorado College: Colorado College in penalties
Tufts vs Washington and Lee: Tufts 2-0

Mary Washington vs Wash College: Wash College in penalties
Conn College vs Montclaire State: 2-1 Conn College

Calvin vs Uchicago: Calvin 3-2
St Olaf vs Wis-Eau Claire: St Olaf 2-1

[paclassic89]

Amherst could surprise me and end up blowing out Occidental but after watching their first two games, Serpone seems content to rely on playing a high-level kickball game with whoever they match up with.  They'll probably nick a goal off of their 30th long throw in of the game and win by 1

[coach analytics]

Amherst could surprise me and end up blowing out Occidental but after watching their first two games, Serpone seems content to rely on playing a high-level kickball game with whoever they match up with.  They'll probably nick a goal off of their 30th long throw in of the game and win by 1

Exactly my prediction as well.