2024 NCAA Tournament

[SpringSt7]

In D1 basketball, all but 1 of the national champions since 2002 have had a combined KenPom adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency that adds up to less than 50, i.e, the 1st ranked offense and the 48th ranked defense, or the 24th ranked offense and the 25th ranked defense.

As I did last year (when 3 of the qualified teams made the Final Four, including Christopher Newport), I took Matt Snyder's rankings and applied the same thing to this year's field---offense is listed first, followed by defense, and then sorted by the total:

1. Hampden-Sydney 2-3-5
2. Randolph-Macon 3-5-8
3. Trinity (CT) 12-2-14
4. Keene St. 10-8-18
5. Guilford 16-6-22
6. Widener 13-19-32
7. John Carroll 25-10-35


Just missing out:
-Oswego St. 11-41-52
-Catholic 8-50-58

Last year 11 teams made the cut and a few more narrowly missed out. This year, the top 7 teams in overall adjusted efficiency are the only 7 that make the cut. I'd feel pretty confident that the national champion will be one of them.

[nescac1]

Good stuff, SpringSt7.  I think SpringSt7's statistically-based list is pretty solid but I would also add Platteville and maybe CWRU to the list regardless of their ranking on that metric because (a) there is no one from the upper-right bracket listed and (b) regarding Platteville, I will never leave out of the list of contenders a WIAC team with a 24-4 record, even if a relatively down year for the league.  Number 2-8 on that list (counting Oswego) are concentrated in two quarters, so getting out of each will be really tough.  And I feel like many of the more talented sleepers are also in those brackets - CNU, Williams, Elmhurst, Calvin, Tufts, NYU, Swarthmore, I think any of those teams with big-time pedigrees would have a solid shot at going far in other brackets, but they are stuck in the two loaded quarters where they are going to face extremely difficult match-ups early in the tourney. 

As for RMC, I do think a lot depends on whether Jabril Robinson returns to health.  RMC struggled without him in the ODAC tourney and they would not be close to second on this list if you take his production away - I doubt they are a contender without him.

When you combine efficiency rankings with bracketing, I think the title favorites look something like this:

1. HSC, 2. Platteville, 3. Trinity, 4. John Carroll, 5. Case Western, 6. Keene, 7. Guilford, 8. Widener, 9. Oswego, 10. Catholic.  RMC's spot TBD between 3 and 11, depending on Robinson. 

[D3BBALL]

Sure looks like HSC, based on all metrics, is pretty much a lock to the final 4.

Spring really like those stats and the history from D1, does make sense.

[thebear]

The scariest pods appear to be the John Carroll pod with Calvin, & Elmhurst, and the Oswego pod with DeSales & Williams.  at least two ranked teams are going home from each of those the first weekend. 

[CardsFan]

In D1 basketball, all but 1 of the national champions since 2002 have had a combined KenPom adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency that adds up to less than 50, i.e, the 1st ranked offense and the 48th ranked defense, or the 24th ranked offense and the 25th ranked defense.

As I did last year (when 3 of the qualified teams made the Final Four, including Christopher Newport), I took Matt Snyder's rankings and applied the same thing to this year's field---offense is listed first, followed by defense, and then sorted by the total:

1. Hampden-Sydney 2-3-5
2. Randolph-Macon 3-5-8
3. Trinity (CT) 12-2-14
4. Keene St. 10-8-18
5. Guilford 16-6-22
6. Widener 13-19-32
7. John Carroll 25-10-35


Just missing out:
-Oswego St. 11-41-52
-Catholic 8-50-58

Last year 11 teams made the cut and a few more narrowly missed out. This year, the top 7 teams in overall adjusted efficiency are the only 7 that make the cut. I'd feel pretty confident that the national champion will be one of them.

This is a great KenPom stat. Another one is that no D1 national champion in the KenPom era (since 1999) has had an adjusted defensive efficiency worse than 22nd (Baylor in 2021). However, I am pretty sure that the same cannot be said for D3 champs. It applies to CNU last year, but I don't have the data to see where R-MC ranked in 2022 and where Oshkosh ranked in 2019 (but something makes me think they were worse than 22nd).

Also, it's wild that 3 of the 7 teams on your list are all in the Widener bracket, along with Oswego. IMO that's the deepest bracket of the 4.

[ziggy]

Sure looks like HSC, based on all metrics, is pretty much a lock to the final 4.

Spring really like those stats and the history from D1, does make sense.

On the new D3 Datacast today we took a look at the bracket as a whole in terms of round-by-round odds to advance based on the efficiency ratings. You're right, Hampden-Sydney is an overwhelming favorite to reach the Final Four.

Here is the episode link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWSOLEe-jxo

[89Pirate]

Not that it matters much, but the D3Hoops bracket has Whitworth listed with an 18-9 record when it's really 19-8.

Go Bucs !

[SpringSt7]

Other than a couple of scares, a largely uneventful and chalky first day. Some decent games for sure but not sure how much there has been to write home about outside of an early buzzer beater, albeit it on a neutral site

[thebear]

I saw Farmingdale over Stevens, Penn St- Harrisburg over Hood, Whitworth over Cal Lutheran, Texas Dallas over Trinity (TX), Whitworth over Cal-Lutheran as upsets; 4 top 25 teams [Elmhurst, DeSales, Cal Lutheran. Trinity (TX)] knocked out the first night.

[ziggy]

I saw Farmingdale over Stevens, Penn St- Harrisburg over Hood, Whitworth over Cal Lutheran, Texas Dallas over Trinity (TX), Whitworth over Cal-Lutheran as upsets; 4 top 25 teams [Elmhurst, DeSales, Cal Lutheran. Trinity (TX)] knocked out the first night.

Interestingly, computer ratings/rankings do not see Farmingdale's win over Stevens as an upset. D3 Datacast, Massey and D3 Bubble all had Stevens as the underdog in that matchup.

[Pat Coleman]

Not that it matters much, but the D3Hoops bracket has Whitworth listed with an 18-9 record when it's really 19-8.

Go Bucs !

Did not see this post before we made our updates last night but will get it in tonight.

[thebear]

I saw Farmingdale over Stevens, Penn St- Harrisburg over Hood, Whitworth over Cal Lutheran, Texas Dallas over Trinity (TX), Whitworth over Cal-Lutheran as upsets; 4 top 25 teams [Elmhurst, DeSales, Cal Lutheran. Trinity (TX)] knocked out the first night.

Interestingly, computer ratings/rankings do not see Farmingdale's win over Stevens as an upset. D3 Datacast, Massey and D3 Bubble all had Stevens as the underdog in that matchup.

I just looked and D3 Datacast Had Farmingdale at 77 and Stevens at 32.  D3 hoops in their poll had Farmingdale at #45 and Stevens as #26 in ORV.  I also noticed the NCAA listed Stevens as Home and Farmingdale as Away, which i've been told means the higher seed is the home team in neutral site game.  Regardless nice win for Farmingdale.

[SpringSt7]

In D1 basketball, all but 1 of the national champions since 2002 have had a combined KenPom adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency that adds up to less than 50, i.e, the 1st ranked offense and the 48th ranked defense, or the 24th ranked offense and the 25th ranked defense.

As I did last year (when 3 of the qualified teams made the Final Four, including Christopher Newport), I took Matt Snyder's rankings and applied the same thing to this year's field---offense is listed first, followed by defense, and then sorted by the total:

1. Hampden-Sydney 2-3-5
2. Randolph-Macon 3-5-8
3. Trinity (CT) 12-2-14
4. Keene St. 10-8-18
5. Guilford 16-6-22
6. Widener 13-19-32
7. John Carroll 25-10-35


Just missing out:
-Oswego St. 11-41-52
-Catholic 8-50-58

Last year 11 teams made the cut and a few more narrowly missed out. This year, the top 7 teams in overall adjusted efficiency are the only 7 that make the cut. I'd feel pretty confident that the national champion will be one of them.

The top 5 sneak through while the 6th and 7th teams head home. Keene St. will play Guilford and Macon could see Trinity in the E8.

[ziggy]

I saw Farmingdale over Stevens, Penn St- Harrisburg over Hood, Whitworth over Cal Lutheran, Texas Dallas over Trinity (TX), Whitworth over Cal-Lutheran as upsets; 4 top 25 teams [Elmhurst, DeSales, Cal Lutheran. Trinity (TX)] knocked out the first night.

Interestingly, computer ratings/rankings do not see Farmingdale's win over Stevens as an upset. D3 Datacast, Massey and D3 Bubble all had Stevens as the underdog in that matchup.

I just looked and D3 Datacast Had Farmingdale at 77 and Stevens at 32.  D3 hoops in their poll had Farmingdale at #45 and Stevens as #26 in ORV.  I also noticed the NCAA listed Stevens as Home and Farmingdale as Away, which i've been told means the higher seed is the home team in neutral site game.  Regardless nice win for Farmingdale.

You had those rankings reversed from the efficiency ratings. You are correct about Top 25 voting and the home/road designation, so it becomes a matter of perspective. The computer rankings were in agreement about Farmingdale being the favorite, however.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

There are 14 schools that made both Men and Women tournaments

Catholic:                         M: 2nd round;    W: 2nd round
Chris Newport:            M: 3rd round;   W: 2nd round
DeSales:                           M: 1st round;    W: 2nd round
Hope:                                 M: 2nd round;   W: 3rd round
Marymount:                    M: 1st round;    W: 1st round
NYU:                                   M: 2nd round    W: 3rd round
Penn St-Harrisburg:    M: 2nd round    W: 1st round
SUNY New Paltz:         M: 1st round      W: 2nd round
Trine:                                    M: 3rd round    W: 2nd round
Trinity (CT):                      M: 3rd round     W: 1st round
Trinity (TX):                       M: 1st round     W: 2nd round
WashU:                               M: 3rd round    W: 1st round
Widener:                            M: 2nd round     W: 2nd round
Wisconsin Lutheran:    M: 1st round     W: 1st round

Men lasted longer for 5 schools (Chris Newport, PSU-Harrisburg, Trine, Trinity (CT), WashU) 
Women for 5 schools (DeSales, Hope, NYU, New Paltz, Trinity (TX)), 
Same round for 4 schools (Catholic, Marymount, Widener, Wisconsin Lutheran)

Six schools had both win at least one game (Catholic, Chris Newport, Hope, NYU, Trine, Widener)