USC Rankings 2024

[eyeofthetiger1988]

This weekend will definitely be a big test...the team is leaving today, so at least there will be a rest day before the back to back games.

[eaglesoccerdad]

Rowan dropped 9 to 23. F&M jumps in. Amherst & Montclair also in after receiving votes.

National - Poll 3 - September 24, 2024
Rank   School   Prev   W-L-T
1   University of Mary Washington   1   8-0-0
2   Middlebury College   2   6-0-1
3   Kenyon College   4   5-0-2
4   Gustavus Adolphus College   6   6-0-1
5   Tufts University   7   5-0-1
6   Dickinson College   5   7-0-1
7   Colorado College   3   5-1-2
8   Christopher Newport University   13   5-0-3
9   Hope College   18   7-1-0
10   University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire   11   6-0-2
11   United States Coast Guard Academy   12   6-0-1
12   SUNY Cortland   10   6-1-2
13   Swarthmore College   16   7-0-1
14   Ohio Northern University   15   5-1-2
15   Bowdoin College   19   4-0-1
16   Montclair State University   RV   5-2-1
17   Plattsburgh State University   17   6-0-2
18   North Park University   25   5-0-3
19   Southwestern University   24   5-0-1
20   Babson College   20   3-0-4
21   University of Chicago   8   5-2-0
22   Rowan University   9   2-3-3
23   Franklin & Marshall College   NR   3-0-4
24   John Carroll University   23   5-1-2
25   Amherst College   RV   3-1-1
Records shown are through games of September 22, 2024

Also receiving votes: Roanoke College, University of Rochester, Macalester College, Trinity University (Texas), Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Connecticut College

[Kuiper]

UMW stays number 1, but lots of movement in the rankings otherwise.  Tufts, which plays Babson today in an interesting matchup, climbs to #2

National - Poll 4 - October 1, 2024
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    University of Mary Washington    1    9-0-1
2    Tufts University    5    7-0-1
3    Gustavus Adolphus College    4    8-0-1
4    Kenyon College    3    6-0-3
5    Middlebury College    2    6-0-2
6    Colorado College    7    6-1-2
7    Hope College    9    8-1-1
8    Montclair State University    16    6-2-1
9    Dickinson College    6    8-1-1
10    North Park University    18    7-0-3
11    Franklin & Marshall College    23    4-0-5
12    Babson College    20    4-0-5
13    University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire    10    7-1-2
14    SUNY Cortland    12    6-1-3
15    Amherst College    25    5-1-2
16    Virginia Wesleyan University    NR    7-1-2
17    Denison University    NR    5-1-3
18    Southwestern University    19    5-0-2
19    Swarthmore College    13    7-1-1
20    Vassar College    NR    6-2-0
21    Rowan University    22    3-3-4
22    Christopher Newport University    8    5-2-3
23    Worcester Polytechnic Institute    RV    6-2-2
24    Trinity University (Texas)    RV    6-0-2
25    Ohio Northern University    14    6-2-2

Records shown are through games of September 29, 2024

Also receiving votes: St. Olaf College, University of Rochester, Connecticut College, Illinois Wesleyan University, Johns Hopkins University, Wheaton College (Mass.), John Carroll University

[Kuiper]

Some expected and some less expected moves.  Kenyon jumps over Tufts after Tufts' tie with Babson.  Gustavus Adolphus drops from 3rd to 6th after they tie Augsburg.  North Park drops from 10 to 16 after losing to Wheaton (IL) and tying Millikin (expected that to be a larger drop).  Vassar, on the other hand, jumps a little higher than I would have expected after wins over Bard and Skidmore (I would think those wins would have been expected wins).

National - Poll 5 - October 8, 2024
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    University of Mary Washington    1    11-0-1
2    Kenyon College    4    7-0-3
3    Tufts University    2    8-0-2
4    Middlebury College    5    7-0-2
5    Colorado College    6    8-1-2
6    Gustavus Adolphus College    3    9-0-2
7    Hope College    7    8-1-1
8    Dickinson College    9    10-1-1
9    Franklin & Marshall College    11    6-0-5
10    Montclair State University    8    8-2-1
11    Babson College    12    5-0-6
12    University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire    13    9-1-3
13    Vassar College    20    8-2-0
14    Amherst College    15    7-1-2
15    Virginia Wesleyan University    16    9-1-2
16    North Park University    10    7-1-4
17    Denison University    17    6-1-3
18    Southwestern University    18    7-0-2
19    Rowan University    21    4-3-5
20    SUNY Oneonta    NR    7-1-3
21    Wheaton College (Mass.)    RV    6-3-2
22    Johns Hopkins University    RV    7-2-2
23    Trinity University (Texas)    24    8-0-2
24    Ohio Northern University    25    7-2-2
25    SUNY Cortland    14    7-3-3

Records shown are through games of October 6, 2024

Also receiving votes: Connecticut College, Christopher Newport University, St. Olaf College, Swarthmore College, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, John Carroll University, Illinois Wesleyan University, Stevens Institute of Technology

[Kuiper]

Just because I said in the NPI thread that USC rankings don't matter doesn't mean they don't still provide fodder for discussion (and bragging on school Instagram posts), so here they are.  As expected, Kenyon drops after losing to Denison and OWU.  Hope drops after tying Calvin.  F&M drops after reading the comments in the Mid-Atlantic thread tying Lebanon Valley.  A few of the 5+ risers include North Park, Denison, Ohio Northern, Trinity, W&L, Williams, Southwestern and Occidental. Edgewood in the RV category is interesting.  They don't have any signature wins, but they score a lot.

National - Poll 6 - October 15, 2024
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    University of Mary Washington    1    13-0-1
2    Tufts University    3    9-0-2
3    Middlebury College    4    10-0-2
4    Colorado College    5    10-1-2
5    Gustavus Adolphus College    6    11-0-2
6    Dickinson College    8    11-1-1
7    Montclair State University    10    10-2-1
8    University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire    12    10-1-3
9    North Park University    16    9-1-4
10    Vassar College    13    9-2-0
11    Denison University    17    8-1-3
12    Amherst College    14    8-1-2
13    Franklin & Marshall College    9    7-0-6
14    Babson College    11    7-1-6
15    Hope College    7    9-1-2
16    Kenyon College    2    7-2-3
17    Ohio Northern University    24    9-2-2
18    Trinity University (Texas)    23    10-0-2
19    SUNY Oneonta    20    8-2-3
20    Washington & Lee University    NR    8-3-1
21    SUNY Cortland    25    9-3-3
22    Williams College    NR    8-2-2
23    Rowan University    19    5-4-5
24    Southwestern University    18    7-1-3
25    Occidental College    NR    8-1-3

Records shown are through games of October 13, 2024

Also receiving votes: Wheaton College (Mass.), York College (Pa.), Virginia Wesleyan University, Johns Hopkins University, St. Olaf College, Swarthmore College, Edgewood College, Connecticut College

[SierraFD3soccer]

Hahaha, perfect reason to drop. Didn't get the job done. Fair. Just like JHU dropping out with its loss to Gettysburg. No breaks. 

[Kuiper]

As I predicted in the NPI thread, Mary Washington does not drop below Tufts when humans vote, even though it did in the NPI.  Not saying either is the correct result, but just pointing out the differences and how cognitive biases and rigid algorithms affect the rankings differently in this instance.

Games have consequences for the rankings.  Montclair State drops from 7 to 17 after losing to Rowan and Rowan rises from 23 to 13 for that win.  Similarly, Johns Hopkins rises from RV to 17 after beating F&M, while F&M drops from 13 to 23 after that loss.  On the other hand, Amherst rises from 12 to 10 after beating Hamilton and losing to Tufts, suggesting that the Hamilton win more than made up for the Tufts loss.

National - Poll 7 - October 22, 2024
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    University of Mary Washington    1    13-0-1
2    Tufts University    2    10-0-3
3    Middlebury College    3    10-0-3
4    Colorado College    4    12-1-2
5    Gustavus Adolphus College    5    12-0-2
6    Dickinson College    6    12-1-2
7    University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire    8    11-1-3
8    North Park University    9    11-1-4
9    Denison University    11    10-1-3
10    Amherst College    12    9-2-2
11    Babson College    14    8-1-6
12    Vassar College    10    9-2-2
13    Rowan University    23    7-4-5
14    Trinity University (Texas)    18    12-0-2
15    Kenyon College    16    9-2-3
16    Hope College    15    11-1-2
17    Johns Hopkins University    RV    8-3-3
18    Ohio Northern University    17    10-2-3
19    Montclair State University    7    11-3-1
20    SUNY Cortland    21    12-3-3
21    Williams College    22    9-2-2
22    Virginia Wesleyan University    NR    10-2-3
23    Franklin & Marshall College    13    7-1-6
24    Buffalo State College    NR    12-1-1
25    Edgewood College    RV    16-1-3

Records shown are through games of October 20, 2024

Also receiving votes: Connecticut College, Washington & Lee University, Claremont-McKenna-Harvey Mudd-Scripps Colleges, Endicott College, St. Olaf College, Wheaton College (Mass.), John Carroll University

[Freddyfud]

Now that we are deep into the season my uncertainty about these polls is in overdrive.  On the one hand we have this one which is subjective.  On the other hand NPI is intended to be completely objective which sounds great in principle.  But it seems NPI should be considered incomplete until the end of the season.  And as far as I can tell the results could shake out to be significantly different from any current view.  At least for the middle of the pack if not more.  I'd like to think the volatility shrinks significantly over time but not sure as I stare at that table.

In the meantime social media does what it does touting favorable results.  Just as it did before the first USC poll was issued this year.  Not that this has any influence on my uncertainty.  But I shudder to think what happens if a team celebrates a top 20 USC ranking in a late poll only to find out they miss the dance. Outrage over subjectivity in the past is one thing--maybe blame it one one or two boneheads.  But good luck explaining the nuances of an algorithm in these circumstances.  Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think "the data says so" will go very far for the NCAA.

Maybe I should just ignore all polls for a few weeks and stick to the entertaining comments section on SC polls.

Oh, and now imagine if the USC individual awards were based on an algorithm...

[SKUD]

^ funny! 

Has anyone looked at the 2 polls next to each other and identified the greatest deltas? 

[Kuiper]

^ funny! 

Has anyone looked at the 2 polls next to each other and identified the greatest deltas? 

Williams is #6 in NPI and #21 in USC
Conn College is #8 in NPI and RV in USC
Vassar is #24 in NPI and #12 in USC
Virginia Wesleyan is #45 in NPI, but #22 in USC

There are some that are in the top 25 in NPI, but not ranked in USC

Wisconsin-Platteville is #16 in NPI
York is #18 in NPI
Wesleyan is #20 in NPI

My read on the differences is that coaches look at records, possibly game scores (but not systematically), and eye test for schools they have seen, but only have a general sense of strength-of-schedule, while NPI doesn't consider eye test or game scores and weights SoS/wins against top teams systematically.  USC also has some regional representation bias, although I don't know if that is explicit or implicit in the national rankings.

As for Freddyfud's point

But I shudder to think what happens if a team celebrates a top 20 USC ranking in a late poll only to find out they miss the dance. Outrage over subjectivity in the past is one thing--maybe blame it one one or two boneheads.  But good luck explaining the nuances of an algorithm in these circumstances.

Seems like Virginia Wesleyan is the school that currently might be most at risk of being ranked nationally, but not getting a bid, although it would be hard for them to do well the rest of the season and stay ranked in the USC, without also improving their chances in the NPI

[Freddyfud]

^ funny! 

Has anyone looked at the 2 polls next to each other and identified the greatest deltas? 

That would be Rowan.

Current USC    Team    Delta
1    University of Mary Washington    1
2    Tufts University    -1
3    Middlebury College    0
4    Colorado College    0
5    Gustavus Adolphus College    2
6    Dickinson College    5
7    University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire    -2
8    North Park University    5
9    Denison University    5
10    Amherst College    -6
11    Babson College    -2
12    Vassar College    12
13    Rowan University    34
14    Trinity University (Texas)    1
15    Kenyon College    -3
16    Hope College    3
17    Johns Hopkins University    0
18    Ohio Northern University    4
19    Montclair State University    2
20    SUNY Cortland    11
21    Williams College    -15
22    Virginia Wesleyan University    23
23    Franklin & Marshall College    2
24    Buffalo State College    2
25    Edgewood College    10

[Freddyfud]

Seems like Virginia Wesleyan is the school that currently might be most at risk of being ranked nationally, but not getting a bid, although it would be hard for them to do well the rest of the season and stay ranked in the USC, without also improving their chances in the NPI

See my quote posted below yours which I may have posted the same time you did (sorry!)

[EnmoreCat]

Is anyone yet to do the NPI/Massey deepdive comparison?

[Freddyfud]

Is anyone yet to do the NPI/Massey deepdive comparison?

I still have the spreadsheet open for the above, I could add Massey I think.  Any other polls while we're at it? SC?

[EnmoreCat]

Is anyone yet to do the NPI/Massey deepdive comparison?

I still have the spreadsheet open for the above, I could add Massey I think.  Any other polls while we're at it? SC?

Only if he submits rankings as far as 400ish.