NPI Rankings 2024

Started by paclassic89, October 08, 2024, 03:51:22 PM

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Ron Boerger

Quote from: EnmoreCat on October 09, 2024, 09:32:58 AMI had a quick re-read of the original NCAA advice and think I know the answer to this, but will check my comprehension.  Do post-season conference games get taken into account for the calcs, or do they only provide the AQ and the rankings cut off at regular season end?

The final regional ranking, to be relased the same day as the field is announced (Nov 11) will include all games played to that point. 

Crossit4fun

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 09, 2024, 06:56:05 PM
Quote from: EnmoreCat on October 09, 2024, 09:32:58 AMI had a quick re-read of the original NCAA advice and think I know the answer to this, but will check my comprehension.  Do post-season conference games get taken into account for the calcs, or do they only provide the AQ and the rankings cut off at regular season end?

The final regional ranking, to be released the same day as the field is announced (Nov 11) will include all games played to that point. 

Agreed, Thats how I read it as well.

BoardsBoardsBoards

Is quality win bonus for the current NPI of the team or the NPI at the end of the season.

p.s. UAA looking shocking according to the rankings, in conference games are usually a bonus but it looks like very few games could generate the QWB.

Kuiper

Quote from: BoardsBoardsBoards on October 10, 2024, 01:31:04 PMIs quality win bonus for the current NPI of the team or the NPI at the end of the season.

I think the answer is that whether a win qualifies for the Quality Win Bonus is determined based on the opponent's NPI as of the Final NPI, which is why what we see in each iteration of the rankings can change pretty significantly and you have to focus not only on your team's results, but your opponent's results (and your opponent's opponent's results) as the season continues.   

My source for this is the final language of the administrative regulation implementing NPI, although it would be nice if it was even more explicit than saying it in an example:

Quote(2) Quality Win Bonus.  Assign a bonus for a quality win (e.g., a win over an opponent that finished in the top 50 of the final NPI).

Crossit4fun

#19
Quote from: Kuiper on October 10, 2024, 02:48:27 PM
Quote from: BoardsBoardsBoards on October 10, 2024, 01:31:04 PMIs quality win bonus for the current NPI of the team or the NPI at the end of the season.

I think the answer is that whether a win qualifies for the Quality Win Bonus is determined based on the opponent's NPI as of the Final NPI, which is why what we see in each iteration of the rankings can change pretty significantly and you have to focus not only on your team's results, but your opponent's results (and your opponent's opponent's results) as the season continues.   

My source for this is the final language of the administrative regulation implementing NPI, although it would be nice if it was even more explicit than saying it in an example:

Quote(2) Quality Win Bonus.  Assign a bonus for a quality win (e.g., a win over an opponent that finished in the top 50 of the final NPI).

As per NCAA will be based on end of season NPI
and will change each week up to final week


mngopher

I'll wait to see how these sort out by the end of the season before passing judgment. The SOS vs win pct still seems ridiculous to me, but again, let's see how it plays out. I'm a big D1 basketball guy, and the first version of their rankings usually has a few outliers.

  One thing I am glad to see go is the road/home win diffential. There was a gigantic difference there that is just unfounded for D3. Most (not all - I'm aware there are a small number of places where there may be a significant advantage) road games are not significantly more difficult than home games. It made no sense to give that much of a distinction for it in the regional rankings.

jknezek

It's not the atmosphere that makes road games hard, it's the travel.  It is a huge advantage to roll out of bed, go about your day and prep for the game at a reasonable time versus sitting on a bus for hours and knowing you have hours back home after.

D3 travel, especially out and back games 150+ miles away, is rough, and it definitely makes for an advantage for home teams.

eaglesoccerdad

Quote from: jknezek on October 12, 2024, 05:28:36 PMIt's not the atmosphere that makes road games hard, it's the travel.  It is a huge advantage to roll out of bed, go about your day and prep for the game at a reasonable time versus sitting on a bus for hours and knowing you have hours back home after.

D3 travel, especially out and back games 150+ miles away, is rough, and it definitely makes for an advantage for home teams.

Getting off a bus after 2-3 hours and getting up for a game is an can be challenging for players

Ron Boerger

Yeah, the home/away thing is way different back east than it is in the south and west.  Teams in the SAA and SCAC (and before it blew up, the ASC, but even them with two schools in west Texas and one in far east Texas) can be several (or more) hundreds of miles apart.  When you have to sit on a bus for 5-8 hours each way (or take flights which can take even longer if you have to make connections) the road challenge is way different than what two schools 30 miles apart face. 

I don't know enough about the SCIAC or the NWC to weigh in on them.

mngopher

Quote from: jknezek on October 12, 2024, 05:28:36 PMIt's not the atmosphere that makes road games hard, it's the travel.  It is a huge advantage to roll out of bed, go about your day and prep for the game at a reasonable time versus sitting on a bus for hours and knowing you have hours back home after.

D3 travel, especially out and back games 150+ miles away, is rough, and it definitely makes for an advantage for home teams.
Is it common for teams to go 150 miles+ for an average D3 game? I know it may be out west where schools are much more separated. Obviously UAA as well (though I would argue they do that by choice), but other than those two I don't think that is normal. It's not normal for the northern/midwest conferences I am more familiar with - MIAC, UMAC, American Rivers.

In the MIAC for most teams there is one conference game over 150 miles. The other 9 are all generally within 50ish miles. Same generally true with the UMAC and ARC.

I just don't think home vs road matters much. Never felt that way as a player either.

eaglesoccerdad

Quote from: mngopher on October 12, 2024, 06:28:50 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 12, 2024, 05:28:36 PMIt's not the atmosphere that makes road games hard, it's the travel.  It is a huge advantage to roll out of bed, go about your day and prep for the game at a reasonable time versus sitting on a bus for hours and knowing you have hours back home after.

D3 travel, especially out and back games 150+ miles away, is rough, and it definitely makes for an advantage for home teams.
Is it common for teams to go 150 miles+ for an average D3 game? I know it may be out west where schools are much more separated. Obviously UAA as well (though I would argue they do that by choice), but other than those two I don't think that is normal. It's not normal for the northern/midwest conferences I am more familiar with - MIAC, UMAC, American Rivers.

In the MIAC for most teams there is one conference game over 150 miles. The other 9 are all generally within 50ish miles. Same generally true with the UMAC and ARC.

I just don't think home vs road matters much. Never felt that way as a player either.
Shortest away game travel with no traffic for UMW is two hours to CNU

3+ hours to JHU/Meesiah/Gettysburg

For Salisbury they recently moved to doing an overnight in a hotel to avoid the 3-5 hour ride

Another factor is the traffic that can lead to abbreviated warm ups

mngopher

Quote from: eaglesoccerdad on October 12, 2024, 06:59:39 PM
Quote from: mngopher on October 12, 2024, 06:28:50 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 12, 2024, 05:28:36 PMIt's not the atmosphere that makes road games hard, it's the travel.  It is a huge advantage to roll out of bed, go about your day and prep for the game at a reasonable time versus sitting on a bus for hours and knowing you have hours back home after.

D3 travel, especially out and back games 150+ miles away, is rough, and it definitely makes for an advantage for home teams.
Is it common for teams to go 150 miles+ for an average D3 game? I know it may be out west where schools are much more separated. Obviously UAA as well (though I would argue they do that by choice), but other than those two I don't think that is normal. It's not normal for the northern/midwest conferences I am more familiar with - MIAC, UMAC, American Rivers.

In the MIAC for most teams there is one conference game over 150 miles. The other 9 are all generally within 50ish miles. Same generally true with the UMAC and ARC.

I just don't think home vs road matters much. Never felt that way as a player either.
Shortest away game travel with no traffic for UMW is two hours to CNU

3+ hours to JHU/Meesiah/Gettysburg

For Salisbury they recently moved to doing an overnight in a hotel to avoid the 3-5 hour ride

Another factor is the traffic that can lead to abbreviated warm ups
But aren't they another outlier? The C2C conference is a pretty different deal with UC-Santa Cruz in the same conference as schools in Virginia. And with so few conference teams UMW is forced to play a lot of non-conference games, and likely has to be flexible with scheduling those. It seems like a bandaid until those schools can figure out a home.

For a majority of conferences (again, with the exceptions I have mentioned) I don't think there are many schools regularly traveling several hours to play conference games. I'm fine with a small bump for road games, but the 1.2 for away games vs 0.8 for home games was way too big of a difference in my mind.

 Essentially it means that playing a 6-6 team on the road vs a 9-3 team at home is the same thing. It's not. Not even close. I guess there is no point in complaining about it now that it is gone, but I'll maintain that it is a good thing.

eaglesoccerdad

UMW is not an outlier. Look at the travel for Catholic in the Landmark as another example - DC to Lycoming 3.5 hours, DC to Drew 3.5 hours, DC to Susquehanna 3 hours

jknezek

W&L to Guilford is 2.5 hours. It's 2 to Shenandoah. 3.5 to VA Wesleyan. 2.25 to RMC. I don't think it's that unusual. Most of the CCS and USASAC is forever. The SAA trips are long. Sure the northeast and Midwest are better, but large parts of D3 are significant trips.

College Soccer Observer

Quote from: mngopher on October 12, 2024, 06:28:50 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 12, 2024, 05:28:36 PMIt's not the atmosphere that makes road games hard, it's the travel.  It is a huge advantage to roll out of bed, go about your day and prep for the game at a reasonable time versus sitting on a bus for hours and knowing you have hours back home after.

D3 travel, especially out and back games 150+ miles away, is rough, and it definitely makes for an advantage for home teams.
Is it common for teams to go 150 miles+ for an average D3 game? I know it may be out west where schools are much more separated. Obviously UAA as well (though I would argue they do that by choice), but other than those two I don't think that is normal. It's not normal for the northern/midwest conferences I am more familiar with - MIAC, UMAC, American Rivers.

In the MIAC for most teams there is one conference game over 150 miles. The other 9 are all generally within 50ish miles. Same generally true with the UMAC and ARC.

I just don't think home vs road matters much. Never felt that way as a player either.

In the NESCAC, road trips for Middlebury are 2 hours to Williams, 2.5 to Amherst, 3.5 to Hamilton, Trinity, Wesleyan, Tufts, 4.5 to Conn, 6 plus hours to Bates, Colby, and Bowdoin.  Trips to Maine are complicated by the fact that buses cannot navigate the two lane roads through the mountains of NH and VT to get to Maine, so the route goes south and east to reach interstates into Maine.