NPI Rankings 2024

[SKUD]

NPI question from a non-math major.

In the new system is it possible that a strong team in a weak conference tournament wins it all and drops NPI points? I am not talking about ranking just their point value.

[Kuiper]

NPI question from a non-math major.

In the new system is it possible that a strong team in a weak conference tournament wins it all and drops NPI points? I am not talking about ranking just their point value.

If they are a strong team and win it all, they should have over 10 wins and can drop the lowest NPI win(s) to improve their NPI points even if their overall SoS drops because they beat lower-ranked teams on the way to winning the conference tourney.

[Kuiper]

Macalester season is done, Augsburg now playing for their season next. another win could be all they need to lock up an at-large.

Updated team list with 11/4 NPI data - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

Note that Augsburg also pushed a bunch of teams down a spot in the rankings because of their win and move up, which is a reminder that improvements by one team can come at the expense of other unrelated teams in a pure rank order selection system for Pool C bids.  Another way that teams that are out and not playing anymore can lose a bid.

[Scot_Fan]

NPI question from a non-math major.

In the new system is it possible that a strong team in a weak conference tournament wins it all and drops NPI points? I am not talking about ranking just their point value.

If they are a strong team and win it all, they should have over 10 wins and can drop the lowest NPI win(s) to improve their NPI points even if their overall SoS drops because they beat lower-ranked teams on the way to winning the conference tourney.

Correct. Since NPI automatically takes the 10 highest contributing wins towards a team's rating, they would not move down. At worst, all of the games that are played in the run to a conference championship are worse than 10 of the wins the team already has; and thus, the rating would just stay the same as the current top 10 wins on their record are unchanged.

[kansas hokie]

Can any of the experts on here give me a sense of how much the NCAA works to avoid regular season rematches when making the brackets? repeats of last years bracket matchups? Thanks.

[Freddyfud]

It would be cool if Covenant could host.  The Scots have the best walk out music:

https://www.facebook.com/covenant.edu/videos/homecoming-march/10154709376856315/

[Kuiper]

Can any of the experts on here give me a sense of how much the NCAA works to avoid regular season rematches when making the brackets? repeats of last years bracket matchups? Thanks.

Over the summer, they codified the practice of not scheduling conference opponents against each other in the first round, but they didn't say anything about limiting rematches of non-conference opponents or last year's bracket matchups.   

NCAA Bylaw 31.3.5.1 (b) – Executive Regulations – Selection of

Teams and Individuals for Championships Participation –
Selection Decisions of Sport Committees – Pairings and Site
Selection – Geographic Proximity.

Management Council. The council approved, in concept, an administrative regulation that amends Bylaw 31.3.5.1 to (a) codify the existing practice that conference opponents will not meet in the first round of championships; and (b) that seeding will be considered but not be determinative when selecting hosts for championships.

[kansas hokie]

Ran through an exercise today to see what a bracket that minimizes flights, keeps everyone traveling under 500 miles, and avoids conference matchups in first round (only one potential NESCAC 2nd round). ended up with only 4 flights (2 california teams, Colorado College, and one midwest team, St. Olaf in my bracket, but could be many different teams).

Where teams are doesn't really matter now, but it comes out with 6 Northeast pods, 4 midwest pods, 4 mid-atlantic pods, a texas pod (2 texas teams plus two flights in), and a southern pod (with Colorado College as top seed, Covenant hosts). So, either the Texas and South are together in elite 8 group or those two are matched up with Northeast pods. the mid-atlantic and midwest groups of 4 fit nicely together for minimizing flights in later rounds.

[SKUD]

I added a sheet to my doc that includes analysis of potential conferences where an at-large bid would be "stolen".

Conferences most likely to steal a bid....

C2C - If Mary Washington loses in conference tournament, a bid is stolen.
MIAC - Win by Gustavous Adolphus, St. Olaf, or Macalester OK; any other is a stolen bid.
Newmac - If Babson loses, a bid is stolen.
WIAC - If UW-Eau Claire and UW-Platteville lose, a bid is stolen.
NCAC - If Kenyon and Denison lose, a bid is stolen.
SCAC - If Trinity (TX) and Colorado College lose, a bid is stolen.
OAC - If Ohio Northern and Mount Union lose, a bid is stolen.
CCIW - If North Park loses, a bid is stolen.
ODAC - If Lynchburg, W&L, and VA Wesleyan lose, a bid is stolen.
SUNYAC - If Buffalo St. and Cortland lose, a bid is stolen.

Conferences where a big MIGHT be stolen...(these teams have to stay high enough for at-large bid)

CCS - If Covenant loses, they might steal a bid
MAC Commonwealth - If York (PA) loses, they might steal a bid

Bids that would be stolen (in order)
Macalester
Plattsburg St.
Montclair St.
Muhlenberg
VA Wesleyan

How does Hope losing to Calvin play into your projections? 

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/40013?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit

[SierraFD3soccer]

How does Hope losing to Calvin play into your projections? 

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/40013?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit

Is the bubble still 31st b/c Hope is 32nd now? Calvin is in the 60's.

[kansas hokie]

The bubble line has held at 41 or 42 thus far, but it will go down as conference tournaments give us surprises (like Hope losing, first bid "stolen"). Hope though seems good to get in.

Today, I'm struggling to find a list of conferences with auto bids. The NPI has 43 conferences but I thought I read that there's 42. Can anyone help?

[oacalum]

You can check out my spreadsheet I made. The 2024 Pre-Championships manual stated 42 AQs, not including the WIAC, but I saw on the WIAC website that they have an AQ. I believe the AQ number is 43 which leaves 21 Pool C.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q01GY7C3lBdBc8goCop1YYM-cgdO1gZNFFN0VeGmLQQ/edit?usp=sharing

[SierraFD3soccer]

You can check out my spreadsheet I made. The 2024 Pre-Championships manual stated 42 AQs, not including the WIAC, but I saw on the WIAC website that they have an AQ. I believe the AQ number is 43 which leaves 21 Pool C.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q01GY7C3lBdBc8goCop1YYM-cgdO1gZNFFN0VeGmLQQ/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks!!

[kansas hokie]

Adjusted my sheet to 43 AQ, thank you!

Important bubble games tonight 11/6....

Virginia Wesleyan / Washington & Lee - VA Wesleyan is in right now at 35, but a loss or even a tie will likely see them drop out of an at-large spot. W&L is at 30 so carries some risk as well. Two teams battling for conference final bid but also having real implications for their NCAA chances.

SUNY Oneonta / SUNY Cortland - Cortland (28) is likely in but no guarantees as it's a new NPI world. Oneonta (46) is much simpler, they have to win for their season to continue.

previewing tomorrow (11/7)...

Augsburg / St. Olaf - does Augsburg jump up and take an at-large with a win here?
Redlands vs. Chapman - same here for Redlands have to win to jump up

Both Augsburg and Redlands still likely need to win their final to stay up though. 

[jsr]

PreChampionships Manual

The prechampionships manual (page 18) lists 42 conferences as having AQs in 2024. The list does not include WIAC. Not sure why the WIAC website says they do (maybe Culver's really has pull).