NPI Rankings 2024

[SierraFD3soccer]

11/7 NPI team list is updated. Back later with key games tonight.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

See that Kenyon is in bold, but lost to Denison yesterday. Should they still be in bold although they can't win the NCAC?

[kansas hokie]

Good catch on the conference AQ, lost of moving parts, I'm sure I'll miss other things like that. Thanks.

Bubble watch tonight....

Two SAA semifinals - Rhodes (36) / Centre (44) and Oglethorpe (37) / Sewanee (124). all sorts of bubble fun here. Oglethorpe is last team in and both they and Rhodes would likely drop out of NCAA tournament with a loss today. Could Centre win today and lose the final and still get at-large? it's possible. How these games end and tomorrow's NPI will be interesting.

Muhlenberg (32) / Franklin & Marshall (17) - Muhlenberg may need the win to stay in. F&M needs the win to move into a hosting position so implications there too.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Muhlenberg (32) / Franklin & Marshall (17) - Muhlenberg may need the win to stay in. F&M needs the win to move into a hosting position so implications there too.

Definitely! Though being home has not been great for F&M at least the five times in a row where they lost in 2nd round and lost in pks the last two years.

FYI, I think JHU may not host as it did last year and the women may be in line to host. The women currently are 18th.

[kansas hokie]

SAA matches both went to OT with Oglethorpe and Rhodes winning (no PK's). I think NPI see those as ties so it will be interesting to see the change in their rankings to best know if their matchup in the final will be one where either can lose and still maintain at at-large berth. Getting 2 from SAA would shift the bracket as you would have 4 southern teams then in SAA, Covenant/Bellhaven, and Emory.

[paclassic89]

Someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think OT wins count as normal wins for NPI purposes.  If a game goes to PKs then it is a draw

[SierraFD3soccer]

Someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think OT wins count as normal wins for NPI purposes.  If a game goes to PKs then it is a draw

Yup. As far as understand!!

[kansas hokie]

If that's the case, then both should move up and by playing each other in the final, possibly both will stay up in the at-large spots.

[kansas hokie]

found this language from NCAA which indicates that OT weights could be different in post-season vs. regular season. If there's not change though, an OT win counts 100% like a regular win.

Overtime Win/Loss:  1) Allows for an overtime win/loss to count as less than a full win/loss. 2) An example is in ice hockey. Overtime is played 3-on-3 versus 5-on-5 in regulation. Since a win in overtime required extra time and was played differently an OT win can be weighted at .75 win/.25 loss. The losing team would bet .25 wins/.75 losses. 3) Regular season and post-season can be weighted differently.  4) This is an optional adjustment and can be set at 1.00/0.00 meaning a win is a win, or a loss is a loss regardless of regulation or overtime.

[Kuiper]

found this language from NCAA which indicates that OT weights could be different in post-season vs. regular season. If there's not change though, an OT win counts 100% like a regular win.

Overtime Win/Loss:  1) Allows for an overtime win/loss to count as less than a full win/loss. 2) An example is in ice hockey. Overtime is played 3-on-3 versus 5-on-5 in regulation. Since a win in overtime required extra time and was played differently an OT win can be weighted at .75 win/.25 loss. The losing team would bet .25 wins/.75 losses. 3) Regular season and post-season can be weighted differently.  4) This is an optional adjustment and can be set at 1.00/0.00 meaning a win is a win, or a loss is a loss regardless of regulation or overtime.

This was a statement from the NCAA competition committee regarding how the individual sports committees could decide to treat OT for their sport, which could give it lesser weight than a full win.  Men's soccer didn't give it any weight during the regular season because we no longer play OT and I don't think it spoke to the use of OT in the post-season.  That would suggest it is just like a normal win if you win during OT and a normal tie if you win by PKs. 

[LibbyMoore]

Muhlenberg (32) / Franklin & Marshall (17) - Muhlenberg may need the win to stay in. F&M needs the win to move into a hosting position so implications there too.

Definitely! Though being home has not been great for F&M at least the five times in a row where they lost in 2nd round and lost in pks the last two years.

FYI, I think JHU may not host as it did last year and the women may be in line to host. The women currently are 18th.

Did they host in second weekend? 16/8? They went pretty far, yes?

[LibbyMoore]

Sorry for the confusion. The yellow is for the top 8 seeds as those are the "protected" seeds that can't meet in the bracket before the quarterfinals.

The next green are the ones that should have a right to host, but may not due to conflicts with women's team having priority, not bidding to host, or some other reason. Still, green are the rest of the "1 seeds" in a 4 team pod.

Light blue are the 2 seeds for a pod, dark blue are 3 seeds, and purple are 4 seeds. Now, the NCAA won't stick to those at all, geographic proximity will be most important (less than 500 miles), but it helps me to see where some pods may be balanced out.

Hope this helps, you aren't dense at all, thanks for asking

So great to see it visually like that, thank you!

[hdhendnd22]

Does anyone know about this rule posted by the NCAA? It states that the committee set the dial to a minimum of 10 wins, presumably to get an at-large bid. Does this mean that Hamilton and Wesleyan would not be in contention for an at-large bid, given that they did not reach the 10-win threshold?
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/soccer/d3/men/2023-24D3MSO_NPI.pdf

[paclassic89]

The minimum win threshold only impacts when teams are allowed to start dropping bad wins for ranking purposes.  Teams below 10 wins are still eligible for an at-large if their NPI ranking qualifies

[Kuiper]

Does anyone know about this rule posted by the NCAA? It states that the committee set the dial to a minimum of 10 wins, presumably to get an at-large bid. Does this mean that Hamilton and Wesleyan would not be in contention for an at-large bid, given that they did not reach the 10-win threshold?
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/soccer/d3/men/2023-24D3MSO_NPI.pdf

I posted about this earlier in this thread and the thread I started in the summer about NCAA Tournament Changes, but it's not really a 10 win "minimum" to be eligible for selection.  It's that you can't drop "bad wins" from your NPI calculation (i.e., wins against weak opponents that drag down your strength of schedule) unless you at least have 10 wins that are being used for NPI purposes.  So, teams with more than 10 wins (which include the sum of all of your ties counting as half wins each) only count the strongest 10 wins for NPI purposes and teams with fewer than 10 wins have to count all of their wins in their NPI calculation.  In either case, teams count all of the losses, so a loss against a weaker team counts even if the team already has 10+ wins.

[kansas hokie]

Sheet updated with 11/9 NPI data. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

Fun weekend, lots going on today and tomorrow...here's the look at the bubble watch...

Bid stealing possibilities

CCIW final - North Park / North Central - North Central wins steals a bid. 8pm EST

OAC final - Mount Union / Otterbein - Otterbein win steals a bid. 7pm EST

SCIAC - Claremont M-S / Chapman - Chapman win may steal a bid, Claremont M-S might get at-large bid. 10pm EST

Results

CCS - Covenant / Bellhaven - Bellhaven won. Bid likely stolen. Covenant might get at-large bid.

MAC Commonwealth - York (PA) / Messiah - Messiah won, bid likely stolen. York might get at-large bid.


Last schools in - VA Wesleyan, Oglethorpe (11/10), Hamilton, Hope, Cortland (11/9), Muhlenberg (11/10)


Plattsburgh, SUNY Oneonta, Augsburg, and Redlands are all out and done with matches, but if the teams above them lose and bids aren't stolen, they could sneak in and grab an at-large.