NPI Rankings 2024

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Updated NPI after Saturday's games. Teams not locked in yet.

1 Middlebury (vs 5 Conn College)
*2 Tufts
3 Mary Washington (vs 49 Chris Newport)
*4 Amherst
5 Conn College (vs 1 Middlebury)
*6 Williams
7 Johns Hopkins (vs 27 Muhlenberg)
9 UW-Eau Claire (vs 16 UW-Platteville)
*10 Gustavus Adolphus
11 Trinity (TX) (vs 73 St Thomas)
12 Denison (vs 72 DePauw)
*13 Kenyon
*14 Colorado College
16 UW-Platteville (vs 9 UW-Eau Claire)
*17 Dickinson
*19 Wesleyan
*20 Ohio Northern
*21 Lynchburg
*22 Ohio Wesleyan
*24 Frank & Marsh
*25 North Park
*26 Bowdoin
27 Muhlenberg (vs 7 Johns Hopkins)
28 Rhodes (vs 37 Oglethorpe)
30 Hamilton
31 Hope
32 Buffalo St
34 Mount Union
35 York (PA)

14 teams marked with * should be safe, NESCAC and WIAC loser should get a spot as well. That leaves five spots for the following

Will pop a bubble if they lose today:
3 Mary Washington
7 Johns Hopkins
11 Trinity (TX)
12 Denison

Will probably drop a couple spots with a loss and be squarely on the bubble:
27 Muhlenberg
28 Rhodes

Hoping the above teams all win:
30 Hamilton
31 Hope
32 Buffalo St
34 Mount Union
35 York (PA)

[paclassic89]

Are there 43 AQs this year?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Are there 43 AQs this year?

Section 2.3 of the prechampionship manual. 43 AQ, 21 at large

[oacalum]

There are inconsistencies all over the manual. 2.3 states 43 AQ, then right below says "the 42 conferences granted automatic qualification..." Then, as we've discussed elsewhere, it states how the AQ is earned incorrectly for a few conferences in Appendix B.

[mngopher]

I think the confusion surrounds whether the WIAC gets an AQ, which luckily won't matter this year. Either way there are 20 at-large spots after you account for the 2 WIAC teams getting in. Whether it is 1 AQ plus 1 of 21 at-large or no AQ plus 2 of 22 at-large.

[Kuiper]

Interesting that Hamilton, which didn't play, jumped 5 spots from 35 to 30, which is the largest increase near the cut line of a team that didn't play.  At first glance, it appears to be nothing more than the reshuffling caused by the losses and ranking drops of Buffalo St., Mt. Union, York, and Covenant, but a closer examination reveals something further.  Their QWB points increased from 1.3843 to 1.5092, presumably because their Conn College tie (half-win) became a stronger half-win after Conn jumped higher.  That (plus whatever SoS bump they may have gotten) increased their NPI from 55.846 to 56.012.  Without it, it looks like they would have dropped to 36 behind York.   

[mngopher]

Interesting that Hamilton, which didn't play, jumped 5 spots from 35 to 30, which is the largest increase near the cut line of a team that didn't play.  At first glance, it appears to be nothing more than the reshuffling caused by the losses and ranking drops of Buffalo St., Mt. Union, York, and Covenant, but a closer examination reveals something further.  Their QWB points increased from 1.3843 to 1.5092, presumably because their Conn College tie (half-win) became a stronger half-win after Conn jumped higher.  That (plus whatever SoS bump they may have gotten) increased their NPI from 55.846 to 56.012.  Without it, it looks like they would have dropped to 36 behind York.   

Nice find. That little bump was pretty important too. The difference between NPI 36 vs NPI 30 is probably out vs probably in. Right on the cut line.

Wonder how that will change based on today's results — if Conn College loses to Middlebury is that enough to drop Hamilton even 2-3 NPI spots which could make a huge difference?

[Kuiper]

Although the current NPI rankings says it is only current through games on 11/9, it has already updated the 11/9 listing to add the AQ notations next to Mary Washington and Conn College.  Doesn't look like they updated the actual NPI, though, which is a more complicated process involving the interaction of the results of all of today's games.  So, in one sense the NPI is being updated in real time. 

[Kuiper]

Interesting that Hamilton, which didn't play, jumped 5 spots from 35 to 30, which is the largest increase near the cut line of a team that didn't play.  At first glance, it appears to be nothing more than the reshuffling caused by the losses and ranking drops of Buffalo St., Mt. Union, York, and Covenant, but a closer examination reveals something further.  Their QWB points increased from 1.3843 to 1.5092, presumably because their Conn College tie (half-win) became a stronger half-win after Conn jumped higher.  That (plus whatever SoS bump they may have gotten) increased their NPI from 55.846 to 56.012.  Without it, it looks like they would have dropped to 36 behind York.   

Nice find. That little bump was pretty important too. The difference between NPI 36 vs NPI 30 is probably out vs probably in. Right on the cut line.

Wonder how that will change based on today's results — if Conn College loses to Middlebury is that enough to drop Hamilton even 2-3 NPI spots which could make a huge difference?

With Conn College winning and moving up a little after today, it looks like Hamilton may benefit a little from another boost or at least wouldn't drop any points.

[kansas hokie]

oglethorpe won with 2:48 left, if it went to PK, Rhodes would have knocked Mount Union out.

[kansas hokie]

Depauw steals a bid in PK win over Denison. Mount Union projected out, Buffalo St. on the bubble.

[mngopher]

I'm guessing if Muhlenberg can get this to a tie that will be enough to keep them on the right side of the line

[SierraFD3soccer]

Depauw steals a bid in PK win over Denison. Mount Union projected out, Buffalo St. on the bubble.

Talk about hot! When was the last time Depauw won??

[SierraFD3soccer]

Must have a personal problem with SC, Just saying.

[kansas hokie]

Making a bracket starts with putting the top 8 seeds so that they can make it to Elite 8 without meeting each other. That will make for some odd travel in the second weekend, 5 NESCAC in top 8, 2 Mid-Atlantic with JHU maybe dropping out (and adding another Northeast school, Babson), and one Midwest team (UW-Eau Claire).

Where do you put a Texas pod with Trinity? Seeds 8-16 have a bunch of midwest teams and not all will host so then you have some mid-atlantic teams next to be able to host.

What do you do with three Southern schools? fly Colorado College there again? make Emory and Oglethorpe play for a third time this year?