NPI Rankings 2024

[mngopher]

I'm still not understanding this NPI thing. Take Bowdoin for example...

They're 7-5-5, with those 7 wins coming against The University of New England, Husson, Wheaton, St. Jospeh's (ME), Southern Maine and NESCAC "powerhouses" Colby and Trinity. Where are they getting their points? In the 4 draws against other NESCAC teams (a conference they had a total of 2 wins in 10 games)?

I am curious to hear what team you think should be in this spot instead... I guarantee a NESCAC team like Bowdoin would be a major threat to many .800 teams you're thinking of.

Augsburg out of the MIAC has a more favorable resume than Bowdoin in my opinion. Bowdoin's best win is over #88 NPI Colby. Augsburg has 4 wins better than that — #50 Macalester x2, #79 Carleton, and #76 Wartburg. Augsburg also has 2 ties against top 15 NPI teams.

Ultimately we are talking about teams that likely aren't championship contenders, so it's not that big of a deal. Overall I think the NPI did ok in year 1. No extreme oversights. I think going into year 2 the dials could be adjusted a bit to reward beating good teams instead of just playing good teams.

[Saint_Dad]

Well.  You have a team like Saint Lawrence (I am biased) that lost their first two games (one to a top 25 team) and was then 9-0-7 since, losing in PKs in the Liberty league finals. Looking forward to seeing Vassar play and beat a Nescac team to give the Liberty League some cred.

[Mohammed413]

I'm still not understanding this NPI thing. Take Bowdoin for example...

They're 7-5-5, with those 7 wins coming against The University of New England, Husson, Wheaton, St. Jospeh's (ME), Southern Maine and NESCAC "powerhouses" Colby and Trinity. Where are they getting their points? In the 4 draws against other NESCAC teams (a conference they had a total of 2 wins in 10 games)?

I am curious to hear what team you think should be in this spot instead... I guarantee a NESCAC team like Bowdoin would be a major threat to many .800 teams you're thinking of.

Augsburg out of the MIAC has a more favorable resume than Bowdoin in my opinion. Bowdoin's best win is over #88 NPI Colby. Augsburg has 4 wins better than that — #50 Macalester x2, #79 Carleton, and #76 Wartburg. Augsburg also has 2 ties against top 15 NPI teams.

Ultimately we are talking about teams that likely aren't championship contenders, so it's not that big of a deal. Overall I think the NPI did ok in year 1. No extreme oversights. I think going into year 2 the dials could be adjusted a bit to reward beating good teams instead of just playing good teams.

Do draws not carry much weight, then? Let's not forget Bowdoin gave Tufts majority of their goals conceded this season along with knocking them out of the Nescac playoffs. Plus, draws against three teams in the top 16 definitely have some points involved.

[ts33]

It very much does appear as if draws are not as important... obviously, wins should be valued more, but once again, a quality tie should count for something. This year has been quite hectic adjusting to the new NPI system. I think we will continue to learn even more tomorrow about NPI and how the new NCAA bracketing rules are going to be implemented. Tomorrow will have a MASSIVE effect on what coaches do with their schedules next year. There have also even been side conversations of teams attempting to schedule a game today (11-10) after getting eliminated from their conference tournament in a last-ditch effort to bolster NPI ratings vs other desperate programs.

[SKUD]

^ That's funny for 2 reasons:

1: I think the only NPI they use is the 11/10 update

And 2: they already have that and it is called the ECAC Tournament.

[Another Mom]

There's quite a discrepancy between the Massey algorithm and the NPI rankings. For example, Massey ranks Redlands 9th, but they didn't make the NPI cutoff.  What this means, I'm not sure. But it's interesting.

[SKUD]

Massey is not good unless you like history.

[Another Mom]

Well, given where they've ranked W&L all season, and compared to teams they've beaten, I agree with you!

[wihsuafs24]

Re: the murmuring around certain NESCAC teams with relatively average records making the tournament... is there any insight into how the very first Win Values/QWB were calculated for the 10/13 NPI ranking? It seems to me that there had to be some sort of initial basis for heavily weighting any result against a fellow NESCAC team, even if just a tie.  What was that basis, statistically?

[Kuiper]

Re: the murmuring around certain NESCAC teams with relatively average records making the tournament... is there any insight into how the very first Win Values/QWB were calculated for the 10/13 NPI ranking? It seems to me that there had to be some sort of initial basis for heavily weighting any result against a fellow NESCAC team, even if just a tie.  What was that basis, statistically?

The first ranking was just the first published ranking.  They presumably could have calculated it every day and the very first (unpublished) ranking would be based simply on wins with a whole bunch of teams tied at 1-0.  Wins are the basis for all rankings, strength of schedule, quality win bonuses etc. That's why Adrian was highly ranked in the first published ranking in mid-Oct even though they only had 3 countable games (all wins) due to playing mostly non-NCAA teams.  Despite those 3 wins being against weak teams, they were still top 20.  The key is getting your wins against other teams that have wins.  NESCAC wins a lot of non-conference games again against weak teams that play in weaker conferences and a few strong teams that are in the top of their conferences like Babson and some of the upstate NY teams.  That's the winning formula - win against teams that win a lot of their games and then play conference games with most teams getting a lot of non-conference wins.  You can do it like Rowan - which played a Murderers' Row of non-conference teams to make up for a middling conference strength - but it's a lot harder.  Trinity crept up the rankings by just winning, but it also beat strong teams in weak conferences (the ASC) and some of its conference teams and non-conference foes had really good wins. They got a little lucky in that respect.

EDIT:  I should add that it helps that NESCAC teams tie a lot and there are "upsets" like Wesleyan beating Conn.  It's not completely optimal if the bottom half of the conference loses all the time since wins against those teams will end up meaning less later in the season.  You'll still have top teams doing well if they keep winning, but not as many conference teams will get in.  Conference tournaments also help increase the end of season schedule strength and QWB for prospective NCAA qualifiers, since all of that is determined in the final ranking ultimately and NESCAC uses a really generous conference tournament system (down to quarters, which gives strong teams plenty of chances to build their resume).  Some top-heavy conferences might do better to increase the conference tournament numbers for that effect.

[stlawus]

At this point NPI needs to be renamed NESCAC Protection Index.  Absolutely ridiculous that 8 teams are in.  I wasn't/am not opposed to an NPI system but this needs drastic changes in the off season. 

[Ron Boerger]

Yep. If you are barely .500 you don't belong in the conversation.

[SimpleCoach]

At this point NPI needs to be renamed NESCAC Protection Index.  Absolutely ridiculous that 8 teams are in.  I wasn't/am not opposed to an NPI system but this needs drastic changes in the off season. 

And my Purple Raiders are screwed a second year in a row.

SC.

[Newenglander]

At this point NPI needs to be renamed NESCAC Protection Index.  Absolutely ridiculous that 8 teams are in.  I wasn't/am not opposed to an NPI system but this needs drastic changes in the off season. 

And my Purple Raiders are screwed a second year in a row.

SC.

That's with and without NPI SC so not sure what the answer is. It's all kinda crazy to sort through. I was just looking and Mt Union had 19 regular season games before tournament play. These things seem like apples and oranges to compare when all teams don't even play the same number of games. NESCAC doesn't even allow more than 15.

[camosfan]

I was just looking and Union had 19 regular season games.

is that OK for people who are not professionals in a 10-12 week span?