NCAA TOURNAMENT 2024

[Mr_November]

Something I want to add about Amherst is the lack of substitutions made. This is interesting for a team that goes complete high press to only make 4 subs on a Sunday double-header Elite 8 game..wow. Same for W&L with 5 subs.

In comparison, Midd and Conn both made 10 subs. Depth and fresh legs play a critical role at this stage
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Sometimes the substitutions hurt Conn's game, you look at the bench and say WTF they are doing, Amherst has a way of keeping key players in for very long time, remember Oko had to signal to the sideline
that he needed to come out.

I would agree at times but hard to argue with the results.....think part of Conn's formula is that the sum is worth more than the individual parts.....Not sure they've had a Oko type individual player. Burk anchors the team with his back 4 (CB's rarely subbed) and rotates everyone else. Strong players like Jaran and Scoffone still command a ton of time.

Every year they seem to have someone different step up in the playoff run... 

Flashbacks to MT Tshuma in 2021

[PaulNewman]

Jaran imo has been one of the best Conn players for several years, including the national title year.  At least one year his season was marred by injury (maybe when Conn didn't make the tourney the year after the title), and other Conn players have been more heralded.  But he is very talented and dangerous.  He is especially dangerous on free kicks.  I don't think he was going for goal 45 yards out against Kenyon but certainly he should be scouted as though he always might go for goal regardless of distance. 

One added note on the subbing (a topic that for whatever reason draws critics from both directions).  Aside from "this is D3 and kids should play" as part of the reason to never go to only 3 subs and no re-entry, there is another huge argument especially if you have the talent.....a MUCH happier team.  When the majority of the team plays you're generally going to have higher satisfaction and buy-in.  And if you've been using a heavy substitution system all season then there shouldn't be a ton of disruption.  That's all before raising the issues of fatigue, fresh legs, and a spark of energy.  These players I assume at most of the programs live and socialize together as well.  A very different dynamic than the professional leagues.

[jknezek]

I'll say this about W&L, the team I saw at Sewanee and Covenant looked schematically challenged. It seemed like they knew how to play soccer and had the talent to play it well, but they struggled to know where on the field they needed to be, how to move off the ball, where to find each other when they had the ball, and, most importantly, how to track runners and cover back defensively.

Tactically they looked befuddled on both ends. I played a lot of years, I hold a D license from when it meant something, and I started on my C before my last kid gave up the game.

That makes me far from an expert, but I should be able to identify the formation a team is playing in base and when they are in proper shape and out of shape. For the life of me I had a few guesses what they were trying to do, but they were so out of sort, especially against Covenant, I had no solid idea.

The team that played Williams and Dickinson? It's a lot harder to identify from D3 camera angles, so I'm not entirely sure of the base, but the awareness of space, lanes, runs, and tracking defensively, especially, were spot on. There was no room in the middle third or attacking third for either of those teams.

I don't know how W&L will fare against arguably the hottest team in the tournament. Everything at this stage depends on the slightest factors. But I do know the progress of this team, as a team, as a tactical unit, has come farther than any team I can remember.

A lot of that is the talent. It is immense as it is for any team at this stage, but the mental growth through the season has been so impressive.

As a first year coach he must be thrilled that not only did he get his message across to the players, but they have been able to take that message and grow and become successful.

Regardless what happens in Vegas, I'm super proud of this team. They faced quite a challenge adapting to a new coach and they have overcome that challenge.

[Dustin_Patrón]

Would each of the final four teams characterize their season as a great success if they were to lose in the semi-final? Time, history, and expectations surely have an impact on these answers, right?

If you were to tell the W&L players in September after starting the season 1-3-0 that they'd be in Vegas, I'm not sure they'd have believed it. But this is also a team that had gone to two of the previous three FFs so expectations were high.

Conn College had great success on the nat'l stage in 2021, however, they ended this season as the 6-seed in the nescac and had no idea if they'd even play in the big dance (until going on to win the conference tourney).

Midd have played in three NCAA quarterfinals in the last four seasons, but are moving on to only their second ever FF (nat'l champs in '07). They've also been fantastic all season and are the highest remaining seed (I think?)

For Amherst, I don't have much to say that EnmoreKitten hasn't already said over the last few weeks. I'll leave it others to decide who wins off the field, but there's no doubt that the Mammoths have dominated on the field and in the national tournament for quite some time.

I think we can all can agree that each of these teams SHOULD look back at their run as a great success. It takes ultimate focus, skill, a lot of grinding and a fair amount of luck. I mean, look at Tufts - arguably the best team all season and upset by Buffalo St on day 2.

The question is not should they call it a success, it's will they.

Personally, I'd say shut up dustin you idiot of course it's a fantastic success for all 4.

Correction: Father, son and holy PN confirmed that CC was never at risk of getting snubbed from tourney.

[MunnyTim]

PN, phenomenal observation from afar.  Jaran has been such a key for the Camels for the last four years.  Was a starter on the 21 national championship team.  Missed the latter half of both the 22 and 23 seasons with injuries.  But his steadiness on the ball and set piece delivery has always been spot on.  I just watched the replay of the Conn - Kenyon game and his goal was a set piece delivered at just the right height, pace, and angle to really trouble the keeper.

Also, I tried to comment on this on Sunday, but if you watch the penalties, the video is clear that the trash talk was started by the Kenyon PK keeper.  I was there and heard this from some of the actual participants, but I wanted to confirm it with the video.  The Kenyon keeper clearly says something to Conn's first kicker.  The ref delays the start of penalties to point and warn the keeper.  After converting, the Conn penalty taker looks to have said something back to him.  After the second round, you can't see if the Conn player came off the bench to taunt, the video is too focused on the goal to pick that up.

[PolarBear80]

Does anyone have any insight on the other side of the bracket? I haven't had the opportunity to watch either Connecticut College or Washington and Lee play?

This seems like a good time to make my firts post on the new version of the Message Boards. I am similar to Paul Newman and I have found Connecticut College to be my favorite team beside my Polar Bears. I live in an area that aloows me to attend way too many Nescac games live in person and have seen Conn a lot of times this year. It is impressive how much they pass the ball around and more so since their field is the worst in the Nescac.

I think Conn's strength is their defensive line and the defensive midfielder. Those players are excellent. Most of the games I saw them play in person they did not give up goals but  also did not score. It  is interesting  that  now that they are scoring they also are letting some in.

I am proud of Bowdoin's season this year. It was a tough one and they did all they could. Next year I think they will challenge for the Nescac.

[PaulNewman]

MT, I have appreciated your posts.

I don't know who started what and I don't care.  Imo coaching comes in here.  Wall and Burk both have the power to tell their players "keep your mouth closed, let your shot or saves speak for themselves, and whatever you do don't let give the other side extra motivation."  Now Silvester did his own mindgames as well, and I doubt that was contingent on whatever he thought of the Kenyon GK behavior.  For Kenyon, that game cannot go to PKs.  Conn's record is probably historic.  Their time will come when they go 0 for 3, but until then, expect them to be flawless with a save or two (or miss) almost guaranteed. 

I think you were the one that mentioned stats.  The shots were much closer up until Duratovic scored with 13+ left.  Kenyon never had another shot....13 minutes of regulation and 20 minutes of OT.  They subbed a decent amount although they were missing a critical midfielder and played a kid that has barely played, so I don't think it was primarily fatigue.  I think they were deflated immediately after Alem's goal as he was motionless and obviously re-injured his hamstring.  I personally was thinking they can probably see this through while understanding it was far from over, but I was also thinking the Owls would not have Duratovic the next day against Denison or in the F4 if fortunate enough to get there.  They needed him full strength and playing 60-70 minutes.  Think Nathan Donovan.  I mean he scored two weeks in a row with the opposition knowing full well that he ahd not been playing and that he was Kenyon's most dangerous threat. That's special.  Anyway, stats say Kenyon didn't have another shot after their goal in the 77th minute.  I thought Dujakovich had a shot with a pretty decent look around the six yard box with 4-5 seconds left in regulation.  That shot isn't in the stats so maybe I dreamed that.  Then after Jaran scored (and I don't think he was trying to score there) Kenyon was obviously further deflated.  Conn had leveled and the Owls had to get through 11 minutes of regulation and 20 minutes of OT without their best offensive threat.  After Duratovic scored and had to be assisted off the field, shots were 7-0 for Conn.  As for Conn's goals, neither was what I would term a routine stop for Kenyon's GK, but they were both very saveable and those are plays that have to be made...at least one out of the two had to be saved.  Kenyon's GK had a very solid to good career in Gambier, but before the game I thought it could come down to the GKs...and of course Silvester is one of the best, as exemplified with PK shootout stops in the national title game.  Hard for me to feel anything other than Kenyon had every chance to win that game (and should have), but I also in real time and now felt they would have no shot at winning the title if they advanced without Duratovic.

[Hopkins92]

Regardless what happens in Vegas, I'm super proud of this team. They faced quite a challenge adapting to a new coach and they have overcome that challenge.

This is why they are a very dangerous team. Playing with house money. As we've almost to a person observed on this forum, they were in a bit of shambles to start the season (by their standards) and the team I watched beat my Jays and then progress to the F4 is incredibly solid in the back and springs a decent counter. I was worried about their ability to score until the put 3 past Dickinson.

The caveat there is that once you unlock Dickinson, they let a few games get completely away from them (Gave up 3 or more to Muhlenberg, Gettysburg [4-3 win)], the Jays x2 and The Generals.)

[Hopkins92]

PN, phenomenal observation from afar.  Jaran has been such a key for the Camels for the last four years.  Was a starter on the 21 national championship team.  Missed the latter half of both the 22 and 23 seasons with injuries.  But his steadiness on the ball and set piece delivery has always been spot on.  I just watched the replay of the Conn - Kenyon game and his goal was a set piece delivered at just the right height, pace, and angle to really trouble the keeper.

Also, I tried to comment on this on Sunday, but if you watch the penalties, the video is clear that the trash talk was started by the Kenyon PK keeper.  I was there and heard this from some of the actual participants, but I wanted to confirm it with the video.  The Kenyon keeper clearly says something to Conn's first kicker.  The ref delays the start of penalties to point and warn the keeper.  After converting, the Conn penalty taker looks to have said something back to him.  After the second round, you can't see if the Conn player came off the bench to taunt, the video is too focused on the goal to pick that up.

I started that post by saying I wasn't going to say anything and, really, this is the reason why. I wasn't there and didn't hear what was said. Period.

There's no disputing the bench warning for coming onto the field. The announcers said that clear as day (I watched it live).

But, overall, in terms of who started it... I absolutely cop to not knowing and in hindsight should've just left it alone.

[PaulNewman]

I can't recall if it was this thread, but someone mentioned that Conn was at risk of not even making the tournament by landing at the 6th seed in NESCAC.  That is false.  NPI was way too high.  It is interesting to go back and look at team's seasons.  Right now it seems like Conn and W&L could never lose again, but right before Conn went on their NESCAC tourney run they got run off their own field by Wesleyan who led the Camels 3-0 before Conn got one back (on a PK).  They also tied Hamilton 0-0 at home and all of the stats were dead even. 

I will say that if Conn and W&L go to PKs, I don't think there is any clear advantage.  Both have won very recent PK games, and neither GK is likely to be thrown off his game.  Up here in the New England and the Northeast, most of us aren't familiar with many particular players for even a major program like W&L, but from what I've seen Joseph for W&L is as good as anyone in the country.  If someone asked me today, my predictions would be Conn winning in regulation or OT, and W&L prevailing if indeed it gets to PKs. 

[EnmoreCat]

Paul Newman, I'm just a little worried, most likely with absolutely no justification, that you might almost be becoming that most rare of beasts, except for those who genuinely don't care, an Ampartial.

[MunnyTim]

PN - couple of things.  You did NOT imagine one last chance for the Owls.  I think it was right at the end of OT and it was a true chance.  Hit on the ground right at Silvester.  Not sure why it was not recorded in the stats, but that had this observer's heart in his throat.

I completely agree with comments on trash talking.  I think it is unnecessary and takes away from the game.  I normally watch games from a bit of a distance (20+ yards) so I can see the full field.  UMW has their field set up so the fence along the sideline with the stands is no more than five yards from the touch line (making long throws from that side of the field a challenge with almost no run up space).  Standing that close to the pitch, one can really observe the level of talk/commentary between the players.  It's a fair amount.

I concur, the Owls were very, very good on Saturday.  Really controlled the midfield for much of the game.  I don't know if it was fatigue or a bit of being deflated, but the last 10 of regulation and almost all of the 20 min of OT were controlled by the Camels.  Prior to that, the Owls had the better of it. 

Lastly, you are correct about the Camels prior to the NESCAC tournament.  I was in attendance when Wesleyan prevailed 3-1.  Wes was much better that day.  So, anything can happen coming up in Vegas.

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman, I'm just a little worried, most likely with absolutely no justification, that you might almost be becoming that most rare of beasts, except for those who genuinely don't care, an Ampartial.

EnmoreCat, your comment/query deserves a better response than I feel up to now, as after caring really, really hard for 2.5+ months and having the plug pulled abruptly the embers of my soul are barely flickering.  Plus, the Celtics are about to play with Kristaps Porzingis due back in the lineup tonight (and just watch him tear an ACL in the his first game back from a different rare but major injury).

I am definitely not the biggest Amhater.  I feel like I probably say everything I've ever said here at least once a year, so I assume you've previously read that I back in the day (meaning for me 2012-2015ish) I actually was a prime Amherst defender.  I don't hate Amherst as much as most of your NESCAC cousins, and even though I've never felt an affinity for Serpone's style, I do appreciate his quirkiness and passion.  And, again, there is no doubt about the extent of the success.  I also don't have any particular issues with Amherst as an institution.  I obviously get what Amherst is and represents culturally.  I don't dislike Amherst as an institution, although I am increasingly interested in what is going to happen to these culturally (and academically) elite schools (both in NESCAC and outside NESCAC).  Of course with four of these types of schools in the F4, you wouldn't conclude that there are cracks in the foundation of academic cultural elitism, and as I've admitted in the past, I was one of the worst elitists and wannabee-elitists.  Over the past several years as I see what is happening in this country, I am very unsure about what the future is gonna bring, and I'm actually not sure what I want to see happen.  I think some of it is niche and some a mirage, but if so to any extent, still a very powerful niche/mirage.  I love lists and making lists (like this week thermal underwear options and I'm discovering bamboo haha), and I was TOTALLY into my kids' college lists, what schools they could get in and which they couldn't, and trying to strike the perfect balance between "best school you can access" along with "best fit among schools above a certain USNEWS skewed threshold."  A big part of me thinks I got it all wrong, even though all worked out quite well in the end.  My kids would never have been accepted at Amherst.  My soccer-playing kid got in Colby and several other NESCACs, and he was within a hair of going to Colby which had been his dream school.  I've told that story before and won't repeat it here, except to say that even though I think he likely would have flourished at Colby Kenyon turned out to be the marginally better fit for him and his personality.  My daughter did very well going to University of Rochester after I personally had her choosing Macalester, Bryn Mawr, or NYU.  I used to help a few kids at our local public high school, and there was one kid who was choosing between Rochester and Holy Cross.  I got a call from his mother while I was at work one day and she told me her son had just been called out of class to learn he had been accepted to Amherst off the waitlist.  He and his family could not have been more thrilled.  And of course I was thrilled.

Good luck in two weeks.  I have absolutely no idea who is going to prevail (and to be honest I don't care very much).

[Freddyfud]

PN, I thought you were on sabbatical?

Not much to add except at the end of the ODAC regular season even after their undefeated run W&L had an NPI of 35 which I believe (as in not 100% sure so don't flame me) they were on the bubble or close enough to it.  So while Conn College may not have needed results in their conference post season, W&L (probably) did. Of course they went on to win the ODAC tournament so NPI became moot.

For the inaugural NPI in early October, W&L was 67. At the end of conference play they were 35, and of course finished with an NPI of 18.  Pretty remarkable run.

[EnmoreCat]

Paul Newman, I'm just a little worried, most likely with absolutely no justification, that you might almost be becoming that most rare of beasts, except for those who genuinely don't care, an Ampartial.

EnmoreCat, your comment/query deserves a better response than I feel up to now, as after caring really, really hard for 2.5+ months and having the plug pulled abruptly the embers of my soul are barely flickering.  Plus, the Celtics are about to play with Kristaps Porzingis due back in the lineup tonight (and just watch him tear an ACL in the his first game back from a different rare but major injury).

I am definitely not the biggest Amhater.  I feel like I probably say everything I've ever said here at least once a year, so I assume you've previously read that I back in the day (meaning for me 2012-2015ish) I actually was a prime Amherst defender.  I don't hate Amherst as much as most of your NESCAC cousins, and even though I've never felt an affinity for Serpone's style, I do appreciate his quirkiness and passion.  And, again, there is no doubt about the extent of the success.  I also don't have any particular issues with Amherst as an institution.  I obviously get what Amherst is and represents culturally.  I don't dislike Amherst as an institution, although I am increasingly interested in what is going to happen to these culturally (and academically) elite schools (both in NESCAC and outside NESCAC).  Of course with four of these types of schools in the F4, you wouldn't conclude that there are cracks in the foundation of academic cultural elitism, and as I've admitted in the past, I was one of the worst elitists and wannabee-elitists.  Over the past several years as I see what is happening in this country, I am very unsure about what the future is gonna bring, and I'm actually not sure what I want to see happen.  I think some of it is niche and some a mirage, but if so to any extent, still a very powerful niche/mirage.  I love lists and making lists (like this week thermal underwear options and I'm discovering bamboo haha), and I was TOTALLY into my kids' college lists, what schools they could get in and which they couldn't, and trying to strike the perfect balance between "best school you can access" along with "best fit among schools above a certain USNEWS skewed threshold."  A big part of me thinks I got it all wrong, even though all worked out quite well in the end.  My kids would never have been accepted at Amherst.  My soccer-playing kid got in Colby and several other NESCACs, and he was within a hair of going to Colby which had been his dream school.  I've told that story before and won't repeat it here, except to say that even though I think he likely would have flourished at Colby Kenyon turned out to be the marginally better fit for him and his personality.  My daughter did very well going to University of Rochester after I personally had her choosing Macalester, Bryn Mawr, or NYU.  I used to help a few kids at our local public high school, and there was one kid who was choosing between Rochester and Holy Cross.  I got a call from his mother while I was at work one day and she told me her son had just been called out of class to learn he had been accepted to Amherst off the waitlist.  He and his family could not have been more thrilled.  And of course I was thrilled.

Good luck in two weeks.  I have absolutely no idea who is going to prevail (and to be honest I don't care very much).

Paul Newman, I've learnt much more in here than I have ever felt offended by, so on balance I find these boards rewarding, aside from the moments when my antipodean attempts at humour (widely) miss the mark.  If you had told me ten years ago that I would be spending time writing in support of a small liberal arts college in Western MA, I would have dismissed you as a crank, yet here I am.  I actually do want to write a proper post about the general merits of D3, as I am now a big fan, but will save that for after whatever gets to stay in Vegas.

I understand that Amherst isn't everyone's cup of tea and whilst I can truthfully say I don't appreciate everyone's candour, I certainly respect their right to opine.  Your comments about what higher education in the US faces, resonate with me and I find myself much more interested in the prospects for what will happen there, than in Australia!  I read today on Bloomberg that a number of D3 colleges, not ones that we typically discuss here, have implemented quite dramatic cuts in tuition fees, perhaps economists at the respective schools have been waxing lyrically about the concept of supply & demand.  In any event, it's clear that schools all over are dealing with not just demographic issues, but also product ones.

Thanks for your good wishes, it will be no surprise that I do care about the final outcome, but also appreciate the calibre of what lies in Amherst's path.