NCAA TOURNAMENT 2024

[ts33]

Figured we should get this rolling.. I tried a moment ago but mistyped on my phone!

[Mr_November]

Some mouth watering first round match-ups IMO:

Muhlenberg v Stevens
Ohio Wesleyan v Catholic
Cortland v Messiah
Hamilton v Calvin

There are many others as well, but these are the ones that I personally will be making sure I tune in for...

- Catholic's Holden Woodings has been electric this season with 15 goals. On the other hand, final ride for Jay Martin. Heavily favor OWU to topple Catholic but will still be an interesting battle
- Stevens and Muhlenberg is a gritty match-up. Two smart teams who manage games well.
- Messiah will have their hands full with Cortland's attack. 3 Cortland players share 39 goals between them.

[deiscanton]

Today was an entirely different experience watching the Selection Shows, with the new age of the computerized NPI rankings selecting the at-large teams.  The NCAA had already published the final DIII NPI Selection rankings a few hours before the Selection bracket was revealed, so you already knew all the AQs and at-large teams.  I had written the at-large teams on my sheet for both the men and the women, and circled each at-large team as they were revealed in the bracket as to where they would play. 

For instance, I already knew that only the UAA men's AQ (Emory) would be in the field based on the fact that the lowest team in the NPI rankings to get the final at-large bid would be Buffalo State, which was ranked nationally at #33 in the final NPI DIII men's soccer rankings.  NESCAC was going to get 6 at large bids on the men's side, and the UAA was going to get every women's team in the field save for Brandeis.  (Wash U with the women's AQ and the #1 NPI ranking on the women's side in the final rankings)  On the men's side, Middlebury had the #1 NPI ranking and got the first at large bid.

The 6 at large bids taken by NESCAC teams on the men's side based on the NPI final rankings were awarded to Middlebury (#1), Tufts (#2), Amherst (#4), Williams (#6), Bowdoin (#24), and Hamilton (#30)

The 6 at large bids taken by UAA teams on the women's side based on the final NPI rankings were awarded to Carnegie Mellon (#6), Rochester (#11), NYU (#12), Emory (#14), U.Chicago (#30), and CWRU (#42)

The lowest NPI ranked team to get an at large bid on the women's side was McDaniel, which was ranked #46 nationally in the NPI rankings when the selections were made.  Defending national champion Cal Lutheran was ranked at #45 in the national NPI women's rankings and got one of 2 at large bids awarded to SCIAC teams, along with Pomona-Pitzer, which was ranked at #7 in the NPI women's rankings.

Good luck to all the teams participating in the NCAA DIII men's and women's soccer tournaments, and I would be very interested in what matchups people should be looking forward to this weekend.

[Kuiper]

I'll offer a few preliminary observations about the Region X pods (two of them, which is pretty rare):

Colorado College Pod

Colorado College gets to host for the first time in . . . ever?  They fly in three teams.  My guess is that the Committee decided to take advantage of the fact that the NCAA allocated more money for travel this year to make it up to CC for forcing them to travel to Atlanta last year. 

Having said that, Pacific Lutheran and CMS were going to fly somewhere no matter what given that they are more than 500 miles from any other NCAA tournament qualifier, so this isn't necessarily unusual.

The Colorado College-Pacific Lutheran opener is spicier than people might realize.  Colorado College has a strong advantage playing at altitude in Colorado Springs.  It went undefeated there this season and only lost once at Stewart Field all last season too.  Who did they lose to?  Pacific Lutheran in the opener in 2023 by a 2-1 score.  A lot of the stars on both sides, including Trevor Thompson, Craig Johnson, and Nicholas Gaston for PLU and Curtis Hale, Oscar Ramirez, and Alexander Ward, return for each side from that game.  Colorado College played at Pacific Lutheran in Tacoma, WA 2022 and PLU won 3-1 with Thompson and Johnson scoring for PLU, Gaston making 9 saves.  Ramirez was the leading shooter for CC that day and Hale and Ward and other returners played.  So, Colorado College may be the top seed in this pod and the home team, but PLU might actually have the mental edge in this game given their two wins in a row with much the same top players on both sides.

Oglethorpe and CMS don't have quite the same history, but Oglethorpe did travel to Los Angeles in 2021 to play CMS and Redlands and CMS beat them 4-1. 

Trinity pod

Trinity was surely going to host once they were among the top 8 in the NPI rankings.  They have a beautiful grass field and overall facility, so it is well-deserved.

Once the dust settled in the South and teams like Covenant and Rhodes fell short and they sent Oglethorpe to Colorado Springs and Emory to Lynchburg, it made geographical sense to send Belhaven to Trinity.  It might even be close to 500 miles as the crow flies, but it's a little over 600 miles on the freeways.

Hardin-Simmons was obviously going to travel here because they are a bus ride away, but Bowdoin is the big surprise as they are sent on the farthest trip in the tournament.  Having said that, it may take less time and be more comfortable than some bus rides from Bowdoin. I doubt they will have much trouble with Hardin-Simmons, but if Trinity gets past Belhaven, the Bowdoin - Trinity matchup should give the NESCAC doubters a chance to see how a middling NESCAC team does against a power in some other part of the country.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Quick comments

- Bowdoin Polar Bears to TX, hmmm, talk about culture shock, hahaha. NESHATE??? I'm sure they'll do fine and a NE had to feel some of the pain others out West feel every year. I'm sure Bowdoin will take it the right way and make it an adventure to be discussed years from now at reunions. Stuff of memories whether they win or not which is what it all about.  New look at going deep.  https://youtu.be/JsuhovkRLbA?si=0166t6gK0XQLgQPf

- Colorado College hosting pod containing two CA teams and a GA team. Most may not know that, but CO has already had substantial amount of snow plus at Col. Springs is above 6000 ft. Looks like the weather won't be an issue with high in the 40's on Sat and Sun, but it may be a long time since a GA and CA teams have played in those temps. I know they are all young, but showing up a day before and difference in times/elevation could impact their success. True homefield advantage. 

- Teams like F&M which are traveling for the first time in a long, long time could be the best for them. Tough bracket, but getting away from Lancaster could be a good thing. And like Bowdoin, could make a lot of memories for the team whether successful or not.

May be looking to far and the teams are definitely different this year, but Conn College beat F&M in Lancaster 7-6 in pks last year in the 2nd round. So sort of a NCAA home home series assuming both win their first rounds. However, I believe F&M is not nearly as strong as last year so imo it would be a big upset if F&M wins.

[Ejay]

Anyone else excited by a potential Hopkins/Messiah matchup in the Sweet 16?

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's Instant Bracket Analysis...

Already high, the odds for a NESCAC champion went even higher.  Could have FOUR NESCACs in the Final 4, and that's not a stretch.  Three very possible, and I would guess odds favor at least two making it.

Of the bunch, Midd got the toughest draw imo.  Very tough 2nd round game.  Colorado College could be tough if CC escapes their pod into the Sweet 16, and Trinity or Babson might trouble the Panthers in the Elite 8.  Don't be shocked, though if Bowdoin and Wesleyan find their way to the Sweet 16.  Also remember that Midd almost certainly would host again.  I like Midd's chances IF they can get by the Rowan/Vassar match which could be one of the best 2nd round matchups.

Best draw, per usual, is a close call between Amherst and Tufts.  I can't see Muhlenberg or Stevens troubling the Mammoths much on Hitchcock...and then maybe a re-match with St Olaf (but a St Olaf without Morgan and the Frenchman whose name eludes me).  North Park, if they can get there, probably has the size to hang with Amherst so that might Vikings might be a challenge.  I don't see anyone in the bottom half to trouble Amherst much on a projected Elite 8 game on their home turf.

Tufts, OMG, seems like every year you can just move them along to at least the Elite 8.  Buff St won't figure out Tufts quick enough before being down a goal or two.  Tufts imo is a terrible matchup for Dickinson, and I can't see the Lynchburg/Emory winner knocking out the Jumbos on Bello.  The bottom half has some legit names -- Williams, Cortland, Messiah, Hopkins, and W&L/Otterbein -- but remember only one of them will be alive by the time they would meet Tufts.  Hopkins might have the best chance to knock out Tufts, but they got some real work to do to just get there.  A 2nd round rematch between Williams and Messiah would be tasty, and at the moment I'm not sure who I would pick. 

Mary Wash imo also has a very good draw.  Some good teams like OWU, Denison, and ONU just won't be quite good enough.  Conn would likely provide the most resistance with F&M having a chance, as well as a healthy Kenyon (who I'm pretty sure is not going to be healthy).  Kenyon also has old nemesis Calvin in its pod.  Calvin vs Hamilton will be an interesting and likely entertaining affair. 

Projected Sweet 16

Midd vs Colorado Coll
Bowdoin vs Babson

Amherst vs North Park
UWEC vs GAC

Tufts vs Emory
Messiah vs Hopkins

MWU vs ONU
Conn Coll vs Calvin

[SierraFD3soccer]

I'll offer a few preliminary observations about the Region X pods (two of them, which is pretty rare):

Colorado College Pod

Colorado College gets to host for the first time in . . . ever?  They fly in three teams.  My guess is that the Committee decided to take advantage of the fact that the NCAA allocated more money for travel this year to make it up to CC for forcing them to travel to Atlanta last year. 

Having said that, Pacific Lutheran and CMS were going to fly somewhere no matter what given that they are more than 500 miles from any other NCAA tournament qualifier, so this isn't necessarily unusual.

Wonder if the NCAA will only pay for a limited no. of players/coaches.  From what is online, Bowdoin has 27 players and 2 coaches plus I'm sure some ADs will travel. Plane tickets so short notice will probably cost $1k, but I'm sure that the NCAA has some discount.

[PaulNewman]

RE:  possible Conn vs F&M...

The other big difference this year would be F&M having to play on Conn's horrible grass field.

[Mr_November]

In today's episode of interesting 1st round match-ups, we have a rematch of an earlier match this season: Dickinson v St. Mary's College

Remember, the last time St. Mary's College met Dickinson this season was on Sept.8. The score was 3-0 to Dickinson. The Red Devils' victory was never in doubt. However, the stats make it sound closer.

Shots: Dickinson 11-10 St. Mary's
Shots on Goal: Dickinson 5-6 St. Mary's
Corners: St. Mary's 10-6 Dickinson
Saves: Dickinson 6-2 St. Mary's

Dickinson's brilliant duo of Jarden and Iwowo will likely be too much for the St. Mary's defense. However, St. Mary's knows what to expect from the Red Devils, having played them once already. St. Mary's have been scoring by committee for much of the season with 7 different players scoring 4 or more goals (albeit, in a weak United East conference).

My odds: Dickinson win 80% chance, St. Mary's win 20% chance

[Ejay]

Paul Newman's Instant Bracket Analysis...

Projected Sweet 16

Conn Coll vs Calvin

PN - Always the pessimist. 

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's Instant Bracket Analysis...

Projected Sweet 16

Conn Coll vs Calvin

PN - Always the pessimist. 

Absolutely!  Pessimism is my happy place.  And now after reading a pro-Hamilton pitch I'm ready to advance the Continentals to the Elite 8.

[Newenglander]

RE:  possible Conn vs F&M...

The other big difference this year would be F&M having to play on Conn's horrible grass field.

Its a fair point - but actually think (while used to it) Conn is better on turf.......

[PaulNewman]

Not sure NESCAC fans could have dreamed of a better distribution of its teams.  NCAC has all three of its "NPI-worthy" squads in the same quadrant with the 4th team, the AQ DePauw Tigers, headed to Wisconsin

[PaulNewman]

RE:  possible Conn vs F&M...

The other big difference this year would be F&M having to play on Conn's horrible grass field.

Its a fair point - but actually think (while used to it) Conn is better on turf.......

Maybe...but F&M isn't better on grass than Conn.