NCAA TOURNAMENT 2024

[nescac1]

Regarding Messiah-Williams, definitely a missed call, but per the game recap Williams seems to think they were earlier robbed of a PK (I didn't see that part of game so I have no idea) ... in all events, a perfect feed and finish on the GW. 

I assume Williams as both top remaining seed and the most centrally located team will host the sectional? 

[Garden12]

On a separate note, if the 16 remaining teams had to be ranked from 1-16 on most likely to take it all home. How would it look?

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, my last thing on this.  You're logic is not following for me.  Once you say that one call or non-call decided the game you can go back to 20 other things during the whole contest that could compete for title of "decided the game" status.  My other point is that Messiah still could have defended that better...it was a missed call on the far end of the field.  Your best point may be the offensive chance Messiah lost out on...but again, but that wasn't their only chance, right?  These all the other corners and set pieces.  The bottom line is that Messiah did not score...and iirc, that makes almost 215 or os minutes that Messiah failed to score against Williams and Diffley.

I was proud of the way Messiah played.  It was extremely physical, Williams was probably bigger, and Messiah competed like crazy. Most of the games today I thought were played at a very high level of intensity.

[oacalum]

Times for the third round games are posted on the NCAA website bracket with no mention of locations (that I can find). If those are correct, it seems like Amherst is getting sent to Wisconsin. Seems like other hosts are Middlebury, Mary Washington, and Williams.

[SierraFD3soccer]

On a separate note, if the 16 remaining teams had to be ranked from 1-16 on most likely to take it all home. How would it look?

That's an awesome idea!! New thread??

[SierraFD3soccer]

Regarding Messiah-Williams, definitely a missed call, but per the game recap Williams seems to think they were earlier robbed of a PK (I didn't see that part of game so I have no idea) ... in all events, a perfect feed and finish on the GW. 

I assume Williams as both top remaining seed and the most centrally located team will host the sectional? 

Ultimately in world that is not perfect, the only way to solve it or take control is to put the ball in the net.

[jknezek]

Teams Remaining and the 11/10 NPI

Middlebury 1
C-M-S      31
Trinity    8
Babson    10
Total:    50

Amherst    4
Wisc Sup  72
Wisc EC    7
Wisc Plat  21
Total:    104

Buff St    33
Dickinson  17
Williams  6
W&L        18
Total:    74

MWC        3
Denison    14
Conn Col  5
Kenyon    12
Total:    34

The tightest remaining quad is Mary Washington. The loosest is Amherst. In theory, Williams has the easiest remaining quad with no other team in the top 10. Mary Washington has, by far the hardest path through their quad by NPI.

If we were to reseed, and we don't shift the NPI for the first 2 rounds, it would look like this:

Middlebury    1
Wisc Sup    72
Williams    6
W&L          18
Total:      98

MWC          3
Buff State    33
Wisc EC      7
Dickinson    17
Total:        60

Amherst      4
C-M-S        31
Trinity      8
Denison      14
Total:        57

Conn Col      5
Wisc Plat    21
Babson        10
Kenyon        12
Total:        48

Honestly, the chalk has held up pretty well. Tufts (2) is the big upset, followed by Johns Hopkins (9), Gustavus Adolphus (11), Colorado College (13), St. Olaf (15), and Wesleyan (16). And even then, not a single one of the top 21 by NPI lost in the first round.

Cortland at 22, losing to Messiah, is the highest NPI to lose the opening game. Muhlenberg (26), North Park (27), Ogelthorpe (28), and Rowan (29) round out teams losing in the first round in the top half of the bracket.

Ogelthorpe lost to C-M-S (31), another team in the top 32, so that was going to be a below NPI game for someone.

Overall, the NPI system did a fair job of seeding teams in my opinion based on these results. Other than Wisc-Superior, there just aren't any true outliers. They beat teams 27 and 15 by NPI, so a solid run for a team at 72.

In the end, there are only 4 teams below 20 in the Sweet Sixteen, and 3 of those teams won a game on PKs to get there. Add in W&L's win on PKs, and of the 6 teams below 16 in NPI, C-M-S and Dickinson are the only teams who got to round 3 without a PK win.

I still have my doubts about the NESCAC deserving 8 bids. If you look closely, the bottom 3 NESCAC at-large bids, Bowdoin, Wesleyan and Hamilton, did what was expected, first round wins, before bowing out. Tufts underperformed, and the remaining 4 are where rankings suggest they should be. I'm not convinced Mount Union, York and Covenant would have done any better or worse than Bowdoin, Wesleyan and Hamilton, and that's the rub. I've never said the top to top middle of the conference didn't deserve bids. The NESCAC is the premiere conference and deserves to get more of their teams in until that changes. But do they deserve to get a pile of their middle to lower middle teams in?

The dials give the NESCAC the advantage, but the results show they were no better than what should have been expected. So should they have gotten 8 bids? Hard to argue no, since they did what was expected, hard to argue yes since they did no better than what was expected. My personal preference is to spread those bids around to teams that win rather than give one conference a huge benefit of the doubt for teams with a whole bunch of "power ties", but the dials will need some tweaking for that to happen.

On to weekend 2!

[mngopher]

Teams Remaining and the 11/10 NPI

Middlebury 1
C-M-S      31
Trinity    8
Babson    10
Total:    50

Amherst    4
Wisc Sup  72
Wisc EC    7
Wisc Plat  21
Total:    104

Buff St    33
Dickinson  17
Williams  6
W&L        18
Total:    74

MWC        3
Denison    14
Conn Col  5
Kenyon    12
Total:    34

The tightest remaining quad is Mary Washington. The loosest is Amherst. In theory, Williams has the easiest remaining quad with no other team in the top 10. Mary Washington has, by far the hardest path through their quad by NPI.

If we were to reseed, and we don't shift the NPI for the first 2 rounds, it would look like this:

Middlebury    1
Wisc Sup    72
Williams    6
W&L          18
Total:      98

MWC          3
Buff State    33
Wisc EC      7
Dickinson    17
Total:        60

Amherst      4
C-M-S        31
Trinity      8
Denison      14
Total:        57

Conn Col      5
Wisc Plat    21
Babson        10
Kenyon        12
Total:        48

Honestly, the chalk has held up pretty well. Tufts (2) is the big upset, followed by Johns Hopkins (9), Gustavus Adolphus (11), Colorado College (13), St. Olaf (15), and Wesleyan (16). And even then, not a single one of the top 21 by NPI lost in the first round.

Cortland at 22, losing to Messiah, is the highest NPI to lose the opening game. Muhlenberg (26), North Park (27), Ogelthorpe (28), and Rowan (29) round out teams losing in the first round in the top half of the bracket.

Ogelthorpe lost to C-M-S (31), another team in the top 32, so that was going to be a below NPI game for someone.

Overall, the NPI system did a fair job of seeding teams in my opinion based on these results. Other than Wisc-Superior, there just aren't any true outliers. They beat teams 27 and 15 by NPI, so a solid run for a team at 72.

In the end, there are only 4 teams below 20 in the Sweet Sixteen, and 3 of those teams won a game on PKs to get there. Add in W&L's win on PKs, and of the 6 teams below 16 in NPI, C-M-S and Dickinson are the only teams who got to round 3 without a PK win.

I still have my doubts about the NESCAC deserving 8 bids. If you look closely, the bottom 3 NESCAC at-large bids, Bowdoin, Wesleyan and Hamilton, did what was expected, first round wins, before bowing out. Tufts underperformed, and the remaining 4 are where rankings suggest they should be. I'm not convinced Mount Union, York and Covenant would have done any better or worse than Bowdoin, Wesleyan and Hamilton, and that's the rub. I've never said the top to top middle of the conference didn't deserve bids. The NESCAC is the premiere conference and deserves to get more of their teams in until that changes. But do they deserve to get a pile of their middle to lower middle teams in?

The dials give the NESCAC the advantage, but the results show they were no better than what should have been expected. So should they have gotten 8 bids? Hard to argue no, since they did what was expected, hard to argue yes since they did no better than what was expected. My personal preference is to spread those bids around to teams that win rather than give one conference a huge benefit of the doubt for teams with a whole bunch of "power ties", but the dials will need some tweaking for that to happen.

On to weekend 2!

The NPI isn't meant to be predictive. One of the main factors in predictive metrics is margin of victory. UW Superior is a good example of this. They play in a bad conference, but they dominated. 16-0 in conference games with 13 of them by 3 or more goals. Then some very close losses to highly ranked teams - GAC and UWP.

[jknezek]

Middlebury and Mary Washington say they are home next weekend. W&L says they are at Dickinson. Wisc EC says they are at home.

Geographically and monetarily these decisions make sense. Seeding, less so.

Middlebury's quad was going to require 2 or 3 flights. Middlebury is the highest seed and only requires 2. That makes sense.
Amherst should host, but that would require 3 flights instead of 1. Unlucky.
Williams should host, but W&L would have to fly. Dickinson is driving for all and is the second seed. Unlucky.
Mary Washington is the high seed and within 500 miles of the entire pod. That makes sense.

[Kuiper]

For those who missed it, here is a link to a video of Claremont-Mudd-Scripps' golden goal, scored by Rafael Otero, to beat Colorado College in 2OT.  Really impressive skill to thread that needle

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCfVACcSNgA/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

[Freddyfud]

Is it possible that the Hopkins style of play just doesn't work in the tournament? Their endless possession just doesnt seem to consistently create chances against teams that are solid defensively. Maybe they sometimes make a small run but I could never see them winning the 6/6 needed to win a tournament.

This reminds me of "why does Guardiola's City run the PL winning 6 of the last 7 but only win the CL once?" Controlled possession is usually a safer bet over the course of a league season, but it can be countered in knockout situations by the right tactics and/or a little bit of luck (e.g. Chelsea in the UCL final of 2021).

Except change the facts to Ancelotti's Los Blancos and you get a different outcome.  Not to mention a tournament of the best teams from Europe's top flights is much more competitive than a season within one league top to bottom that also includes newly promoted sides. I digress as this is not about professional football.

As far as a 6 game winner take all tournament success Messiah has the hardware, and my understanding is many consider them to play a possession game.  Not sure if this view has been consistent over the years.

[EnmoreCat]

The short answer to Kuiper's question re the Amherst keeper is, "yes".

My understanding is that Amherst is heading to Eau Claire.   I look forward to learning more about it and UW Superior.

[soccerlaxfan]

Times for the third round games are posted on the NCAA website bracket with no mention of locations (that I can find). If those are correct, it seems like Amherst is getting sent to Wisconsin. Seems like other hosts are Middlebury, Mary Washington, and Williams.

The printable bracket has the hosts indicated — Mary Washington, Dickinson, Wisconsin Eau Claire and Middlebury

[SKUD]

Is Wisconsin EC the $hitty field lined for football?

[Kuiper]

Times for the third round games are posted on the NCAA website bracket with no mention of locations (that I can find). If those are correct, it seems like Amherst is getting sent to Wisconsin. Seems like other hosts are Middlebury, Mary Washington, and Williams.

As I understand it, the host gets to pick which games are in which time slots, so it's no surprise that Middlebury chose the 10:30 am eastern time first game for its match with Claremont-Mudd-Scripps.  That means CMS players will feel like they are playing at 7:30 am pacific.  Brutal.

Dickinson and Wisconsin-Eau Claire, by contrast, are hosting and chose to play the later game slots.