NCAA TOURNAMENT 2024

[paclassic89]

I can't 100% verify but I heard he tore his ACL this past summer. 

[jknezek]

Welp, I'm gonna die on the hill of best decade nationally...not best decade for a program compared to past performance. You gonna put St Olaf over Amherst too?

No. But I might give them best last 3 years or so. The 7 before weren't great. Looks more like one dominant class. 16-19 they were bad. Flat out bad. That's a significant part of the decade. Conn is pretty much straight uphill the whole way if you graphed it.

[jknezek]

A better question might be whether jknezek and PaulNewman will ever reach a consensus on anything in the next decade. The outlook appears grim.

We agreed on the vast majority of the list. Or at least don't argue over it. One out of 10 or so isn't much of a percentage to disagree on.

[Dustin_Patrón]

Cubeddu is the best injured D3 player in the country.

Word is, Cubeddu has a talent for TikTok as well. Nearly a million followers now. It's the kind of thing that doesn't demand attention, but quietly pulls you in all the same.

[paclassic89]

Stop, I already have enough reasons to hate Amherst

[Freddyfud]

I understand that Amherst isn't everyone's cup of tea and whilst I can truthfully say I don't appreciate everyone's candour, I certainly respect their right to opine.  Your comments about what higher education in the US faces, resonate with me and I find myself much more interested in the prospects for what will happen there, than in Australia!  I read today on Bloomberg that a number of D3 colleges, not ones that we typically discuss here, have implemented quite dramatic cuts in tuition fees, perhaps economists at the respective schools have been waxing lyrically about the concept of supply & demand.  In any event, it's clear that schools all over are dealing with not just demographic issues, but also product ones.

Thanks for your good wishes, it will be no surprise that I do care about the final outcome, but also appreciate the calibre of what lies in Amherst's path.

The schools that are implementing "dramatic cuts in tuition" are largely just rationalizing what most in the US do - have a stated very high tuition and immediately offer basically anyone who gets in a 50%+ discount in "scholarships" or "grants".  In the 2023-24 academic year, the average discount rate for first-time, full-time freshmen was 56.1% according to NACUBO (the National Association of College and University Business Officers organization which tracks a great deal of college financial information in the US).  The previous year it was 54.8%; given trends it would be reasonable to suspect it to close in on 60% in the current school year or the next.  Who wouldn't be happy with getting $30K off on that $50K published tuition?

Not everyone gets these discounts; the well-off who attend the better-known schools will generally pay a higher net rate.  One reason small schools are so eager to recruit athletes is they (or their families) are often willing to pay more to attend a school if Johnny or Jane can continue to play the sport(s) they love.  The small schools that are granting reduced net tuition to all are willing to overlook that additional revenue to get more people interested in the school and hopefully through the doors, though whether that will work in the long run is to be seen. 

Finally, in the US (like many other countries) the number of young people available is coming down due to lower birth rates.  This, on top of families placing a lower value on a formal education from colleges, means most all colleges are scrambling to define their value equation and recruit from the smaller cohort they see each year. 

The Fed in Philly just released this Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress which makes me wonder if based on his comments above Ron is a remote employee from Texas who contributed to this whitepaper?  Not much on athletics but lots of data for any geeks who may be interested.

"The vast majority of revenue from intercollegiate athletics comes from the approximately
360 universities in Division I of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), and much
of this revenue is concentrated among the approximately 60 institutions in the most powerful
athletic conferences. Forty-nine public universities brought in more than $100 million in athletics
revenue in the 2021–22 fiscal year (USA Today, 2024), but many Division I institutions still rely
on student fees and institutional contributions to fund athletics. Total student fees for athletics
are in excess of $1 billion per year and can exceed $2,000 per student per year at some
universities (Enright et al., 2020). Meanwhile, smaller institutions view athletics as a way to
recruit tuition-paying students who want to continue their athletic careers and thus are willing to
operate athletics with little direct revenue (Knox, 2023)."

The Knox reference at the end is here  Seeking an Enrollment Hail Mary, Small Colleges Look to Athletics including discussion of Calvin starting its (American) football program.

[Ron Boerger]

LOL, no, I just dabble in the college financial space for fun (and no profit). 

[Middfan]

Does anyone have information on travel schedules for the final four teams?

[SKUD]

Did any math-head out there run a simulation of NPI with the SOS turned down to where everyone else had it?  Curious if the field would have looked any different.

Good luck to the teams lucky enough to be still playing!  Some paths were much easier than others but they all earned it!

[Newenglander]

Does anyone have information on travel schedules for the final four teams?

I know Conn left yesterday afternoon and arrived in Vegas late last night. All teams get a set time to practice and walk the field today.

[SKUD]

I think Amherst Monday night
Middlebury Tuesday

[Another Mom]

W&L arrived last night.

[maineman]

Las Vegas is 2000 ft above sea level.  I don't believe that will require much to acclimate to, but could it have a significant effect on the durability of the players and the need to sub out players more frequently?  If it will, then deeper teams could have an advantage.

[Hopkins92]

2000 is pretty much the lower end of "can have an impact." We've talked about this a bit in other threads where teams traveling into Colorado Springs (6000 ft) are absolutely going to feel. As someone that has driven up 14k feet mountains and almost passed out (due to the rapid assent), while others in my car were fine... Altitude affects people differently.

At 2000 feet, a bunch of dudes won't really feel it. And the guys that due will likely be able to acclimate after a few days.

[SKUD]

Warning Enmore has touched down in Sin City.  I sense a touch of "fear and loathing in Las Vegas" may be upon us.